What?!? Nintendo doesn't do BF deals? Since when?!?8 is low but I could see 12 million. other than smash Nintendo needs another surprise for this year. the pokemon game wont burn up the charts and Nintendo doesn't do black Friday deals... now if they did do a black Friday deal and a had a solid holiday bundle I could see the number going higher but I have a feeling Nintendo will stick max price this year through.
Oh you sweet summer child....a couple of seconds on the google machine would show this to be an assumption and not true.Relative to Microsoft and Sony, they don't really. Instead of discounts they focus on bundles. They also don't really need to.
I'm sorry I disagree with most of what you're saying. See, there's a pie that represents the totality of this industry's fiscal year and its sales.
Sony, IMO and I thought this was obvious, was humble in reporting only 16 million. As I said before if they go over they're dipping in someone else's piece of pie.
As casual as the Switch system is it has not yet hit its casual crowd, at all. And that is what pachter was saying, it has to come down in price to hit that 20 million and if it doesn't their going to get outsold by the PS4 that's well into the casual crowd. Sony has the potential with its lineup to hit 20 million units this fiscal year, even tho they said 16.
I mean, if RDR weren't coming out it wouldn't be a problem for Nintendo. But it's gonna sell just as many consoles (PS4s and Xbox's) as any smash would..
These videos aren't his job. He's not even getting paid.But I mean...it's his job to predict things right. Trolling people by spouting things that will inevitably turn out false shouldn't be his go to method to get attention lol.
I know it's pretty important to the toxic side of the gaming community to be high and mighty when someone we disagree with is doing poorly, but I'm pretty sure he's doing just fine.
Good luck with that negativity tho.
High and mighty? He is analysing (if you can call it that) Nintendos performance and we are analysing his performance. Seems fair to me and all that image shows is that he's about as useful an analyst as a coin toss
It is his job to give guidance on five different games companies in addition to the other nongaming and he covers at Wedbush.But I mean...it's his job to predict things right. Trolling people by spouting things that will inevitably turn out false shouldn't be his go to method to get attention lol.
7.24M for Q3 which is October-December
Hi this is Pachter. He has a history with Nintendo analysis that drives fans crazy. He's not the average poster and he's gonna be fine. Think of him as a wealthier Drinky Crow that knows how to push buttons for the lulz.We have officially resorted to meta posting because someone didn't talk positive about the Switch. Are you fucking kidding me? Pathetic.
Nah, it'll likely help sell a few million switches but it won't chanhe anything drastically I think
Hi this is Pachter. He has a history with Nintendo analysis that drives fans crazy. He's not the average poster and he's gonna be fine. Think of him as a wealthier Drinky Crow that knows how to push buttons for the lulz.
Still does not change what I said.He also said the Switch would sell like 50-70M lifetime, his opinions will change with what he thinks is going on with the rest of the market
Hi this is Pachter. He has a history with Nintendo analysis that drives fans crazy. He's not the average poster and he's gonna be fine. Think of him as a wealthier Drinky Crow that knows how to push buttons for the lulz.
the Switch has only won January and February 2018 npds (iirc).
Hi this is Pachter. He has a history with Nintendo analysis that drives fans crazy. He's not the average poster and he's gonna be fine. Think of him as a wealthier Drinky Crow that knows how to push buttons for the lulz.
I o be fair, Pachter didn't say it here. I do agree we should ignore him because...You say it like its a good thing. That kind of trolling was allowed in the old place because the forum admins were friends with each other and it targeted specific groups of players only. I don't think it would be allowed here.
It's him trolling. I believe that in this very thread, someone identified that he provides analysis for the larger Western developers (WB/Activision/EA/Ubi etc). Notice he NEVER says anything close to controversial on them? That's where his $$$ is and does well. The 8 million statement is dumb but should not be taken as serious. The shit he said about Iwata crossed a line however. As a huge Nintendo fan, that day opened my eyes to take zero stock in what Analyst giveaway for "free information".This is not pushing button for the "lulz". Predicting 8 mio Switch sales is just dumb. And his other statements like the ones about Iwata after his death are just embarrassing and dumb too.
And I would think with Smash/Pokemon due in that period, that Switch repeating or approximating those kinds of numbers for holidays 2019 would be a reasonable guessimate?
Thing is if they have the same numbers as last year they would miss their forecast.
Switch sales have been March 17' - 2.73M
Q1 (2017) - 1.97M / Q2 - 2.92M / Q3 - 7.24M / Q4 - 2.92M = 15.05M
Q1 (2018) - 1.88M/ Q2 - ???
If all the other quarters roughly the same they need Q3 to increase their hardware units by another 5M to meet their expectations.
Out of all I said, that's what you latch onto?
You right on your second point as I forgot elements to my post, forgive me :PIf this was true (and it's not) there would be no swings in industry earnings, total hardware would be relatively flat every year and when new hardware launched you would immediately see drops in older hardware to maintain the balance. There is no data out there suggesting that the PS4 or Switch are cannibalizing each others sales. Matt from NPD has said as much several times and when you actually look at software across the board, nothing suggests that the strength of one system corresponds with the drop of another.
What is this logic? Sony beating their forecast doesn't mean that the other players in the industry are losing sales to them. PS4 sales are stronger than most predicted for a 5th year system. We don't know how Sony reached their forecast either. Perhaps they don't plan to be as aggressive wiith deals this holiday. Perhaps the Pro shortage caused them to be more conservative. There are a lot of reasons they may have projected that number besides being "humble". It's fairly obvious they will beat that projection though given how the year has played out.
You'e ignoring the original point. That point was predicting Nintendo sells less this fiscal year than last is none sense. Sony is irrelevant to that.
What does this have to do with Nintendo? The people that buy Nintendo systems wont be swayed away from it because RDR2 is coming out on other systems. These types of games have never been an indicator of how Nintendo systems sell.
I agree with him on pretty much everything besides the 8 million projection
Please elaborate, Wii U came out the gate a failure, Wii came out a success.Same. The switch is playing out the same way as the Wii U did, similar to the wii (without the shovel ware) and the gamecube.
I guess Pokemon will drive sales. I could see total units of switch sold around 50-60m. 80m if theres a long life and they drive the price down to $99-149 at some point. I think thats a pretty big success for Nintendo. But its still a big gap to the PS4 when its all said and done will probably have 120-150m units easily. Theyre going to keep selling that well into the PS5 life.
Please elaborate, Wii U came out the gate a failure, Wii came out a success.
That's how Nintendo handhelds are too, hard to change it much but switch seems to have a nice middle groundI meant in relation to first party releases, mostly the same games spaced out at roughly the same timeframes. I know if youre a big Nintendo fan its not really a big problem and youll buy everything but a lot of people dont buy every first party game and there can be big gaps between releases.
Secondly third party again havent really come on board, theyve tried harder than the Wii U but thats not hard to beat. Obviously Bethesda, 2K have brought out some ports but there havent been many day and date releases. Even Xbox is getting RDR2 and you would think that that was a distant third console judging from threads on this board.
So yeah i feel like the Switch is playing out just like the Wii U did, and wii to a certain extent. Thats just how Nintendo consoles are.
Well yeah, I agree with that, but if it's like the Wii or Gamecube then it's best years are still ahead. The back-half of the console cycle is when Nintendo home consoles begin to falter. So we shouldn't see that have a big impact if any this year.I meant in relation to first party releases, mostly the same games spaced out at roughly the same timeframes. I know if youre a big Nintendo fan its not really a big problem and youll buy everything but a lot of people dont buy every first party game and there can be big gaps between releases.
Secondly third party again havent really come on board, theyve tried harder than the Wii U but thats not hard to beat. Obviously Bethesda, 2K have brought out some ports but there havent been many day and date releases. Even Xbox is getting RDR2 and you would think that that was a distant third console judging from threads on this board.
So yeah i feel like the Switch is playing out just like the Wii U did, and wii to a certain extent. Thats just how Nintendo consoles are.
8 million does sound ridiculous but he is likely going to be closer to the actual number than Nintendo will be to 20 million imo. I see somewhere around 12 to 13 million
Thing is if they have the same numbers as last year they would miss their forecast.
Switch sales have been March 17' - 2.73M
Q1 (2017) - 1.97M / Q2 - 2.92M / Q3 - 7.24M / Q4 - 2.92M = 15.05M
Q1 (2018) - 1.88M/ Q2 - ???
If all the other quarters roughly the same they need Q3 to increase their hardware units by another 5M to meet their expectations.
A seemingly succesful console selling less in its second year would be unprecedent wouldnt it?
Idk, the data we have right now have the switch selling around 5% less than it did Q1 of last year.8 million does sound ridiculous but he is likely going to be closer to the actual number than Nintendo will be to 20 million imo. I see somewhere around 12 to 13 million
You're severely underestimating Switch sales. If it meets the 20m milestone, it'll be at near 40m sold in 2 years. It's selling on par with the PS4 (though launch aligned a bit lower bc of different launches) and it will surely sell well over 100m+Same. The switch is playing out the same way as the Wii U did, similar to the wii (without the shovel ware) and the gamecube.
I guess Pokemon will drive sales. I could see total units of switch sold around 50-60m. 80m if theres a long life and they drive the price down to $99-149 at some point. I think thats a pretty big success for Nintendo. But its still a big gap to the PS4 when its all said and done will probably have 120-150m units easily. Theyre going to keep selling that well into the PS5 life.
he is likely going to be closer to the actual number than Nintendo will be to 20 million imo. I see somewhere around 12 to 13 million