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When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

  • First half of 2019

    Votes: 593 15.6%
  • Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

    Votes: 1,361 35.9%
  • First half of 2020

    Votes: 1,675 44.2%
  • 2021 :^)

    Votes: 161 4.2%

  • Total voters
    3,790
  • Poll closed .
Status
Not open for further replies.

taggen86

Member
Mar 3, 2018
464
Radeon VII (Vega 20) results are not very promising. Thank technology god new consoles will at least sport Navi parts.




Given how bad radeon VII perform on 7nm and its 700 dollar price tag, 1080 ti performance for ps5 or xbox two is completely unrealistic. Radeon VII perform similarly to Vega 64 at the same clock speeds. To get anything close to 1080 ti/2080 we really need a substantial architectural change with navi. If this is not the case, I bet Vega 56 performance is the most likely scenario (Sony/ms usually go for mid-range GPUs around 200-250 dollars).
 
Last edited:
Oct 27, 2017
3,894
ATL
Takeaway is that 7nm can close the efficiency gap with Nvidia's best architectures. It's up to AMD to push it further with Navi.

Isn't it a bad thing that it takes significant node shrink to barely catch up to an architecture that's on an older node? Nvidia could take their RTX die and put it on 7nm and just drive the clocks like AMD correct?

Edit: Not saying Nvidia will, or need to though.
 
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VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,000
Europe
Given how bad radeon VII perform on 7nm and its 700 dollar price tag, 1080 ti performance for ps5 or xbox two is completely unrealistic. Radeon VII perform similarly to Vega 64 at the same clock speeds. To get anything close to 1080 ti/2080 we really need a substantial architectural change with navi. If this is not the case, I bet Vega 56 performance is the most likely scenario (Sony/ms usually go for mid-range GPUs around 200-250 dollars).

So what is your expectation regarding next gen,10TF or so?
 

Deleted member 38397

User requested account closure
Banned
Jan 15, 2018
838
Raja Koduri was the most responsible for this Vega shitshow.I am glad he left AMD.I hope he was not involved with Navi as well?

Wasn't the story something like he was in charge of the Vega team but then a big percentage of his engineers were pulled off to work on Navi with Sony. So he wasn't best pleased and then went off to work for Intel. So no wonder Vega is a bit of a mess.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,914
Maryland
Isn't it a bad thing that it takes significant node shrink to barely catch up to an architecture that's on an older node? Nvidia could take their RTX die and put it on 7nm and just drive the clocks like AMD correct?

Edit: Not saying Nvidia will, or need to though.
Yes, but that's been the status quo ever since Nvidia got Fermi power consumption under control.
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,000
Europe
Wasn't the story something like he was in charge of the Vega team but then a big percentage of his engineers were pulled off to work on Navi with Sony. So he wasn't best pleased and then went off to work for Intel. So no wonder Vega is a bit of a mess.

I dunno,i remember some story that he wanted Vega for servers that can be scaled down for home PCs,or something like that.But all things considered,Polaris-Vega-Navi are all GCN architecture when he was in charge of AMD GPUs,so...
 

tusharngf

Member
Oct 29, 2017
2,288
Lordran
Isn't it a bad thing that it takes significant node shrink to barely catch up to an architecture that's on an older node? Nvidia could take their RTX die and put it on 7nm and just drive the clocks like AMD correct?

Edit: Not saying Nvidia will, or need to though.

Nvidia can kill amd gpu division with 7nm. All they have to do is to offer a GPU under 400 dollars with rtx2080 performance level.
 

Binabik15

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,633
Let's all hope Sony was a big help to AMD and/or the focus was clearly on Navi to begin with.

And for fake 4k to ease the burden on the next-gen consoles.
 

taggen86

Member
Mar 3, 2018
464
Raja Koduri was the most responsible for this Vega shitshow.I am glad he left AMD.I hope he was not involved with Navi as well?

The problem is not Raja. The problem is that AMD has not invested enough man years and money to develop a new GPU architecture. He clearly didn't have enough resources to do so. They are still using the old GCN architecture they have used for years, while Nvidia seems to improve performance per core regularly. Just look at Turing. Turing beats pascal per core 30-50 percent even though they are more or less on the same node. Meanwhile, the radeon 7 performs like a Vega 64 at the same clocks, and Vega 64 performs like a fury x at the same clocks. That is terrible. Hopefully Sony and MS have provided them with lots of resources to finally leave that inefficient GCN architecture.
 
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Bloodcore

Member
Mar 24, 2018
137
Nvidia can kill amd gpu division with 7nm. All they have to do is to offer a GPU under 400 dollars with rtx2080 performance level.
AMD should be able to reach RTX2080 performance by "simply" doing a Vega56 config(3584:224:64) on newer Navi architecture.
Throw on GDDR6 and clock frequency close to Radeon7, lets say 1650MHz boost.

You'll be looking at a die size around 250-260mm2, 11.8TFlops and probably priced at around 330$ for the "full-fat" RX680 and 279$ for the RX670.
Both of these would either beat or close to the RTX2080, forcing Nvidia to release new 7nm cards. Due to having their high-end getting beat by the mid-end cards from AMD.

Win-Win for gamers, no matter which side you are cheering for.
 
Nov 2, 2017
2,275
Takeaway is that 7nm can close the efficiency gap with Nvidia's best architectures. It's up to AMD to push it further with Navi.

I'm still seeing a 20-30% gap so that still seems really far away from Nvidia's efficiency based on that graph. You pretty much need to seriously undervolt and overclock your card to match a stock Nvidia card. And how much you can undervolt is very chip dependent. Some chips don't undervolt at all as the stock voltage is the cutoff point for bad and acceptable chips. I mean a good Vega 56 sample can almost match stock reference Pascal card's power efficiency.

In summary comparing UV/OC cards versus stock cards doen'st really make sense. It's not a 1:1 comparison in general and it's changes based on the chips you get.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Vega 56 runs at ,what, 1.4GHz i think? Sony was very conservative with clocks in PS4 and Pro,both were below 1GHz.I wish i knew how high would Sony go with Navi...
This. 800 mhz for PS4. 911 Mhz for Pro. Not sure why people think Sony would go with a 1.4Ghz clockspeed.

It will be an 8 TF GPU.
 

taggen86

Member
Mar 3, 2018
464
I would be disappointed with 8TF today never mind late 2020 or later.

AMD should be able to reach RTX2080 performance by "simply" doing a Vega56 config(3584:224:64) on newer Navi architecture.
Throw on GDDR6 and clock frequency close to Radeon7, lets say 1650MHz boost.

You'll be looking at a die size around 250-260mm2, 11.8TFlops and probably priced at around 330$ for the "full-fat" RX680 and 279$ for the RX670.
Both of these would either beat or close to the RTX2080, forcing Nvidia to release new 7nm cards. Due to having their high-end getting beat by the mid-end cards from AMD.

Win-Win for gamers, no matter which side you are cheering for.

11.8 like performance is unrealistic if navi is using the same GCN architecture as Vega and Polaris. If navi is using GCN, all the performance will come from the 7nm node and that would only bring a 25 percent improvement over xbox one x at the same (399-499) price. I really hope that Sony and MS have provided the resources required for AMD to move on from GCN to a more efficient system in terms of performance/watts capable of higher clock speeds, otherwise next gen will surely be a disappointment in terms of GPU power...
 
Last edited:
Oct 26, 2017
6,151
United Kingdom
The big problem with Vega that I'm reading is that it's meat and potatoes fixed-function geometry processing capability (i.e. NGG - primative shaders) are disabled.

Without being able to even fall back on fixed-function geometry engines that Polaris had, makes Vega much much worse off.

If you're having to process oodles more invisible geometry because you can't cull fast enough, that's a shit tonne of processing, power and memory bandwidth wasted with no way to avoid it. All the die shrinks in the world aren't going to get rid of the inherent ineffeciency of a GPU microarch designed for NGG engines that can't even use them.

Even if AMD can't solve their issue with exposing primative shaders to devs either transparently or otherwise and enabling NGG fully, if they simply fall back on Polaris' fixed-function geometry hardware, their GPU perf per watt on 7nm will stomp all over Radeon 7.

As far as I've read on the subject, it doesn't seem like Vega's abysmal perf/watt will have much bearing on Navi as long as Navi isn't equally as rushed to market - which we know already it evidently isn't (Radeon 7 wouldn't exist otherwise).
 

taggen86

Member
Mar 3, 2018
464
Yeah,but Navi is still GCN architecture?

When navi is released this summer or fall, we will know if this is the case and once we know its architecture and performance/watts, we will probably be able to guess pretty accurate if we are getting 8-10 TF or 10-12 TF. Looking forward to that.
 
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BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,849
Australia
The big problem with Vega that I'm reading is that it's meat and potatoes fixed-function geometry processing capability (i.e. NGG - primative shaders) are disabled.

Without being able to even fall back on fixed-function geometry engines that Polaris had, makes Vega much much worse off.

If you're having to process oodles more invisible geometry because you can't cull fast enough, that's a shit tonne of processing, power and memory bandwidth wasted with no way to avoid it. All the die shrinks in the world aren't going to get rid of the inherent ineffeciency of a GPU microarch designed for NGG engines that can't even use them.

Even if AMD can't solve their issue with exposing primative shaders to devs either transparently or otherwise and enabling NGG fully, if they simply fall back on Polaris' fixed-function geometry hardware, their GPU perf per watt on 7nm will stomp all over Radeon 7.

As far as I've read on the subject, it doesn't seem like Vega's abysmal perf/watt will have much bearing on Navi as long as Navi isn't equally as rushed to market - which we know already it evidently isn't (Radeon 7 wouldn't exist otherwise).

This is all reasonable and reassuring. It would explain the RX 3080 rumours too.
 

AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
I would be disappointed with 8TF today never mind late 2020 or later.
Dont get me wrong. i will be disappointed, heck devastated by this 4x (or 3x increase since 2tflops will go into checkerboard 4k or 1440p rendering). but the math just doesnt add up.

Sony could go with64 CU GPU like the Vega 64 GPU which can give us 10 tflops at 1.25 Ghz but at 295 W TDP. Navi is supposed to provide 25% improvement so Sony could potentially have a 10 tflops 64 CU GPU running at 1.0 Ghz, but it will still be well over 200W despite the move to 7nm which rules out a 64 CU GPU and leave us with a 56 CU GPU and an 8 tflops GPU.

EDIT: i am getting my numbers from this wikipedia page. The 1.156 Ghz clock for a 56 CU Vega gives us 8.2 Tflops which when paired with a 25% improvement, should give us 8.2 Tflops Navi GPU at 860 Mhz. This is assuming Sony is going with a traditional $399 console. They might end up doing what MS did and add a liquid cooling solution to raise the clock speeds and get to 10 tflops but i doubt they are willing to release a $499 console.

t2QyKfp.jpg
 
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TheRaidenPT

Editor-in-Chief, Hyped Pixels
Verified
Jun 11, 2018
5,952
Lisbon, Portugal
The problem is not Raja. The problem is that AMD has not invested enough man years and money to develop a new GPU architecture. He clearly didn't have enough resources to do so. They are still using the old GCN architecture they have used for years, while Nvidia seems to improve performance per core regularly. Just look at Turing. Turing beats pascal per core 30-50 percent even though they are more or less on the same node. Meanwhile, the radeon 7 performs like a Vega 64 at the same clocks, and Vega 64 performs like a fury x at the same clocks. That is terrible. Hopefully Sony and MS have provided them with lots of resources to finally leave that inefficient GCN architecture.

Even thou there isn't much info about Navi.. I'm still quite sure it's still on GCN.. I believe AMD will only leave GCN come Arceterus or something.... But let's say they leave GCN behind with Navi and adapt GDDR6.

It would be a huge breakthrough for AMD
 

Bloodcore

Member
Mar 24, 2018
137
11.8 like performance is unrealistic if navi is using the same GCN architecture as Vega and Polaris. If navi is using GCN, all the performance will come from the 7nm node and that would only bring a 25 percent improvement over xbox one x at the same (399-499) price. I really hope that Sony and MS have provided the resources required for AMD to move on from GCN to a more efficient system capable of higher clock speeds, otherwise next gen will surely be a disappointment in terms of GPU power...
Why do you think it is unrealistic? AMD has recently had great increases in clock speeds in the past couple of years.
AMDs Vega on 7nm actually beats the 10-series and 20-series when it comes to pure clock speeds.

Efficiency is the big unknown when it comes to Navi, however there have been talk about Zen engineers joining the Navi team to specifically work on the efficiency of the architecture.
 

taggen86

Member
Mar 3, 2018
464
Even thou there isn't much info about Navi.. I'm still quite sure it's still on GCN.. I believe AMD will only leave GCN come Arceterus or something.... But let's say they leave GCN behind with Navi and adapt GDDR6.

It would be a huge breakthrough for AMD

The problem is that at higher compute numbers AMD needs HBM2 to reduce temperature and increase performance per watts. It was never possible to use GDDR6 for Radeon VII (or the vegas) due to temperature and efficiency.

Check this video:

https://www.gamersnexus.net/guides/3032-vega-56-cost-of-hbm2-and-necessity-to-use-it
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,849
Australia
Not sure why people assume Navi will be the same as Vega in gaming performance.

It's baffling.

Not to mention that they may well go for higher relative clockspeeds. There's this common assumption that you just have to look at the PS4 and the Pro to know how much Sony will spend on the PS5 and how they'll design it, when that may well not be the case at all.
 

Intersect

Banned
Nov 5, 2017
451
All of my PS1 discs work perfectly fine? Also, the PS4's Blu-Ray drive not being able to read CDs is a weird anomaly. Even the Xbox Ones can read audio CDs. Offering the games for sale on the PS Store is still something they should do alongside disc-based BC.
It's speculated that the PS4 drive is a standard drive that can read CD but Sony did not buy the CD licence for the PS4. Music streaming and PCs as well as PS3 being able to rip music CDs to hard disk has eliminated a need for a CD player in the PS4.
 

taggen86

Member
Mar 3, 2018
464
Why do you think it is unrealistic? AMD has recently had great increases in clock speeds in the past couple of years.
AMDs Vega on 7nm actually beats the 10-series and 20-series when it comes to pure clock speeds.

Efficiency is the big unknown when it comes to Navi, however there have been talk about Zen engineers joining the Navi team to specifically improve on the efficiency.

The increases in clock speeds we have seen recently on AMD GPUs are due to the 12nm and 7nm nodes, confirming my point that most of the gains for next gen will come from the 7nm node, if GCN is still being used (=around 25% giving us 8 TF). Hopefully Navi will bring us something new with higher performance/watts.
 
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AegonSnake

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
9,566
Not sure why people assume Navi will be the same as Vega in gaming performance.

It's baffling.
Where did i say that? I am assuming we will finally start to see parity between AMD and Nvidia tflops, but it doesnt mean that 8 tflops isnt a distinct possibility.

Now I agreee that those 8 tflops will be worth more but I can promise you the announcement of an 8 tflops GPU in the PS5 will cause meltdowns on gaf, reddit and era.
 

TheRaidenPT

Editor-in-Chief, Hyped Pixels
Verified
Jun 11, 2018
5,952
Lisbon, Portugal
The problem is that at higher compute numbers AMD needs HBM2 to reduce temperature and increase performance per watts. It was never possible to use GDDR6 for Radeon VII (or the vegas) due to temperature and efficiency.

Check this video:

https://www.gamersnexus.net/guides/3032-vega-56-cost-of-hbm2-and-necessity-to-use-it

Yes I am aware of that, that's why they stick to HBM for the entire Vega lifetime.

Navi is gonna need to be a much needed change
 

Bloodcore

Member
Mar 24, 2018
137
The increase in clock speeds we have seen recently are due to the 12nm and 7nm nodes, confirming my point that most of the gains for next gen will come from the 7nm node, if GCN is still being used.
Yet the difference between them is shrinking even on 14nm+ which Polaris30 had, versus 12nm on 20-series.
Another bonus for AMD is that they've finally left GlobalFoundries and their subpar nodes, they haven't been good for higher clock frequencies for a long time.
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
4,576
Dont get me wrong. i will be disappointed, heck devastated by this 4x (or 3x increase since 2tflops will go into checkerboard 4k or 1440p rendering). but the math just doesnt add up.

Sony could go with64 CU GPU like the Vega 64 GPU which can give us 10 tflops at 1.25 Ghz but at 295 W TDP. Navi is supposed to provide 25% improvement so Sony could potentially have a 10 tflops 64 CU GPU running at 1.0 Ghz, but it will still be well over 200W despite the move to 7nm which rules out a 64 CU GPU and leave us with a 56 CU GPU and an 8 tflops GPU.

EDIT: i am getting my numbers from this wikipedia page. The 1.156 Ghz clock for a 56 CU Vega gives us 8.2 Tflops which when paired with a 25% improvement, should give us 8.2 Tflops Navi GPU at 860 Mhz. This is assuming Sony is going with a traditional $399 console. They might end up doing what MS did and add a liquid cooling solution to raise the clock speeds and get to 10 tflops but i doubt they are willing to release a $499 console.

t2QyKfp.jpg

I admit the numbers don't look good. Especially reading today that the 16GB of HBM2 only uses ~30 watts total in VII versus possibly twice that for GDDR6.

Even at lower clocks/volts for consoles the watts just for the RAM alone will likely take up ~30-40 watts of the (~200 watt max) power budget.

I just hope Sony/AMD have some sort of architectural breakthrough that can deliver at least the equivalent of 10TF.
 

taggen86

Member
Mar 3, 2018
464
I admit the numbers don't look good. Especially reading today that the 16GB of HBM2 only uses ~30 watts total in VII versus possibly twice that for GDDR6.

Even at lower clocks/volts for consoles the watts just for the RAM alone will likely take up ~30-40 watts of the (~200 watt max) power budget.

I just hope Sony/AMD have some sort of architectural breakthrough that can deliver at least the equivalent of 10TF.

Yeah really hope that Sony/MS has pumped lots of money into Navi to increase performance/watts. This is likely the case given the massive disappointment that 8 TF would be among gamers (1.25x xbox one x, 2x ps4 pro, 4x ps4). Furthermore, they want a console that can last for at least 5-6 years and I am not sure 8 TF is enough to motivate a generational shift even if we have Zen 2 with 8 cores.
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,000
Europe
Not to mention that they may well go for higher relative clockspeeds. There's this common assumption that you just have to look at the PS4 and the Pro to know how much Sony will spend on the PS5 and how they'll design it, when that may well not be the case at all.

Well,considering that the same man who designed PS4 and Pro is now designing PS5...one of the main things we noticed it that Sony was conservative with both CPU and especially GPU clocks on both 28nm and 16nm comparing to MS.
 

VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
7,000
Europe
Yeah really hope that Sony/MS has pumped lots of money into Navi to increase performance/watts. This is likely the case given the massive disappointment that 8 TF would be among gamers (1.25x xbox one x, 2x ps4 pro, 4x ps4). Furthermore, they want a console that can last for at least 5-6 years and I am not sure 8 TF is enough to motivate a generational shift even if we have Zen 2 with 8 cores.

Yeah,but 8-10 TF range,which i expect,is simply something very realistic for $399 box in the next 12 months.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,081
If either side were willing to go discrete GPU could there be an opportunity to really take the lead in performance by going with Nvidia?
 

BreakAtmo

Member
Nov 12, 2017
12,849
Australia
Well,considering that the same man who designed PS4 and Pro is now designing PS5...one of the main things we noticed it that Sony was conservative with both CPU and especially GPU clocks on both 28nm and 16nm comparing to MS.

The design is not my point. The PS4 was made cheaply because PlayStation was coming off a $5 billion loss, and the Pro was also made cheaply because it's not feasible to sell a mid-gen console at a loss. Neither of these situations apply to the PS5, so it's entirely possible that it will have a higher BoM that could go into things like a better cooling system allowing for higher clocks if needed. Though it would be nicer if it turns out that Navi does well with lots of CUs and they go the wide and slow route instead.
 

anexanhume

Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,914
Maryland
Vega 56 runs at ,what, 1.4GHz i think? Sony was very conservative with clocks in PS4 and Pro,both were below 1GHz.I wish i knew how high would Sony go with Navi...

Also what AMD's APUs run at. We'll just have to see with PS5. Cell was clocked aggressively, so Sony doesn't always go ultra conservative.
I'm still seeing a 20-30% gap so that still seems really far away from Nvidia's efficiency based on that graph. You pretty much need to seriously undervolt and overclock your card to match a stock Nvidia card. And how much you can undervolt is very chip dependent. Some chips don't undervolt at all as the stock voltage is the cutoff point for bad and acceptable chips. I mean a good Vega 56 sample can almost match stock reference Pascal card's power efficiency.

In summary comparing UV/OC cards versus stock cards doen'st really make sense. It's not a 1:1 comparison in general and it's changes based on the chips you get.

There is no efficiency gap. That chart is a perf/Watt chart. Undervolting and underclocking is certainly applicable to consoles when comparing since they do that by default to save on power consumption and improve perf/Watt.
 

Jenea

Banned
Mar 14, 2018
1,568
We had rumours that NextBox will have 2 configurations: one much cheaper and one more powerfull and more expensive. I don't understand the logic behind this. Why do you need the cheaper one when you have x, released not so long ago and that will cost probably 350-400 dollars after a few years.
 

DukeBlueBall

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
9,059
Seattle, WA
We had rumours that NextBox will have 2 configurations: one much cheaper and one more powerfull and more expensive. I don't understand the logic behind this. Why do you need the cheaper one when you have x, released not so long ago and that will cost probably 350-400 dollars after a few years.

Answer is that Zen CPU will make the X and S obsolete.
 

Fastidioso

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
3,101
We had rumours that NextBox will have 2 configurations: one much cheaper and one more powerfull and more expensive. I don't understand the logic behind this. Why do you need the cheaper one when you have x, released not so long ago and that will cost probably 350-400 dollars after a few years.
The cheaper should be just a stream box from we knew.
 

Fastidioso

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
3,101
Yeah really hope that Sony/MS has pumped lots of money into Navi to increase performance/watts. This is likely the case given the massive disappointment that 8 TF would be among gamers (1.25x xbox one x, 2x ps4 pro, 4x ps4). Furthermore, they want a console that can last for at least 5-6 years and I am not sure 8 TF is enough to motivate a generational shift even if we have Zen 2 with 8 cores.
Navi is a Sony exclusive.
 

msia2k75

Member
Nov 1, 2017
601
We had rumours that NextBox will have 2 configurations: one much cheaper and one more powerfull and more expensive. I don't understand the logic behind this. Why do you need the cheaper one when you have x, released not so long ago and that will cost probably 350-400 dollars after a few years.

My conviction is it's going to be difficult for console manufacturers to offer a powerful machine at a mainstream price. They need to drive adoption rate (quickly, preferably) to allow 3rd parties to develop exclusively on the next-gen machines. Or else, you're going to have a good amount of years (in the 2020's) of cross gen titles. Hence why MS seems to go for that particular strategy.
 

fepeinado

Circumventing a ban with an alt account
Banned
Feb 5, 2019
536
We had rumours that NextBox will have 2 configurations: one much cheaper and one more powerfull and more expensive. I don't understand the logic behind this. Why do you need the cheaper one when you have x, released not so long ago and that will cost probably 350-400 dollars after a few years.
Why not? It's like getting both the S and X models right at the beginning of next gen and working with them. Having different models and marketing one of them as "premium" must be good for the brand.
 
Nov 12, 2017
2,877
We had rumours that NextBox will have 2 configurations: one much cheaper and one more powerfull and more expensive. I don't understand the logic behind this. Why do you need the cheaper one when you have x, released not so long ago and that will cost probably 350-400 dollars after a few years.
The less expansive is needed to compete with PS5 ...very likely PS5 will fight against Lockhart...being probably little bit more powerful (or the same if Lockhart is priced pretty much the same as PS5) ...not with anaconda but I suspect that they (Ms) wanna cut the price eating loss
 
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