Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Feb 25, 2019

Snakeeee said:
Then all the consoles will have 4k.

Yeah I think the idea of a 1080 only console is dumb in 2020. They cannot remove the option to upscale via 4K, it's been on One S since 2016. So the marketing will be confusing in that one Xbox will be inferior 4K to the average consumer and one will be superior 4K but how do you communicate that?

DriftingSpirit · Feb 25, 2019

Lady Gaia said:
Out of curiosity, if you had to lose one thing from the following list, which would it be?

4K native pixels

HDR

60Hz

... because the HDMI 2.0a specification implemented in the vast majority of televisions can't actually do all three. Chroma subsampling is required on all 4K HDR 60Hz content prior to HDMI 2.1, which requires a brand new television, a new spec HDMI cable, and for those using an AVR a replacement will be required there as well. Once you're using chroma subsampling with 4:2:2 or 4:2:0 representations you're getting a form of interpolation for color detail in half the pixels.

Native 4K.

CB is more than good enough.

Detective · Feb 25, 2019

Ōkami Haundo said:
Most likely not. Honestly, that's why Microsoft is taking that approach. You win either way!

Yup, feel like a winner. I've pretty much bought all consoles but with these recent changes I can game at ease with my PC and Elite controller :D

More Butter · Feb 25, 2019

rfriar said:
Exactly. He and the other guy don't get it. I'd rather have more of everything else. 4K doesn't matter.

I get it and don't at the same time. Wouldn't you want the hardware to be such that you had great graphical improvements and a native 4K resolution. Begging for checkerboard rendering assumes that we know what next gen hardware is coming. Once we know what next gen entails I might agree that checkerboarding is the best results given the circumstances, but until then...

Anthony Hopkins · Feb 25, 2019

ItsTonyB said:
But you could have more with checkerboard

Why stop there give us a proper leap at 1080p lol

VX1 · Feb 25, 2019

Trieu said:
8-10 Tflops : possible, but I feel positive about Navi achieving good clocks so I think below 10Tflops is unlikely

This is what i expect in $399 PS5. And speaking of GPU clocks,Sony was very conservative with that in both PS4 and Pro (800 and 911 MHz) and i expect the same in PS5 ( a bit above 1 GHz but not much).

Trieu · Feb 25, 2019

VX1 said:
This is what i expect in $399 PS5. And speaking of GPU clocks,Sony was very conservative with that in both PS4 and Pro (800 and 911 MHz) and i expect the same in PS5 ( a bit above 1 GHz but not much).

those are completely different architectures and manufacturing processes. Trust me the PS5 will have way above 1 GHz. You have to look at it from a relative standpoint. Back then in 2013 cards only clocked to 900-1000mhz. The desktop cards that are most closely to the PS4 GPUs clocked at 860 - 1000MHZ.

So if Desktop GPU Navi clocks to 1700-1800 MHZ (just an estimate but clocks have gotten a LOT higher) it is much more likely to see the PS5 atleast being 1300-1500 MHZ. Could be even higher than that. It is relativ. The higher clocks are a big factor as in why GPUs are better nowadays. Each generation we are achieving higher clocks because of better architecture and manufacturing process. That is where we are getting the big chunk of performance from. A Navi at 1000MHZ would be terrible. It would be an absolute disaster.

BreakAtmo · Feb 25, 2019

Trieu said:
those are completely different architectures and manufacturing processes. Trust me the PS5 will have way above 1 GHz. You have to look at it from a relative standpoint. Back then in 2013 cards only clocked to 900-1000mhz. The desktop cards that are most closely to the PS4 GPUs clocked at 860 - 1000MHZ.

So if Desktop GPU Navi clocks to 1700-1800 MHZ (just an estimate but clocks have gotten a LOT higher) it is much more likely to see the PS5 atleast being 1300-1500 MHZ. Could be even higher than that. It is relativ. The higher clocks are a big factor as in why GPUs are better nowadays. Each generation we are achieving higher clocks because of better architecture and manufacturing process. That is where we are getting the big chunk of performance from. A Navi at 1000MHZ would be terrible. It would be an absolute disaster.

If the likely minimum clock is around 1.3GHz, what would you expect if they go higher by using expensive cooling?

FSavage · Feb 25, 2019

Regarding the leaker saying PS5 will is $500, on the hypothetical that his leak is true, he could be talking about Sony's internal BOM target being $500. Sony could still sell this system to consumers for $400. PS4 sold at $400 for years, so Sony knows if they build a system with a high value proposition they can retain the launch price for a long time. Just like GDDR5 on PS4, they can build a system with expensive components that are expected to quickly fall in price 6-24 months after launch.

Also, with BC built into the system, there will be no 'reset' in game purchasing habits from consumers like previous generations. The loss incurred from hardware sales will hurt A LOT less with subscriptions, games, and DLC sales not skipping a beat in the generation transition. I'm not as pessimistic as others here with Sony hardware...

Trieu · Feb 25, 2019

BreakAtmo said:
If the likely minimum clock is around 1.3GHz, what would you expect if they go higher by using expensive cooling?

It is hard to say because I don't know what Navi will bring. I mean Vega is horrible and the new Vega VII clocks to 1740~ (I think) and I would expect Navi to be an improvement on that. If I had to take a hard guess I'd say Navi Desktop parts clock to 1800MHZ boost. (but it comes down to how the architecture works. It is way way way above my paygrade and understanding, but we have seen a continuous rise in clockspeed in the last 5 years).

I think 1600MHZ would be the possible highend for console with good cooling, but I think 1400mhz is much more likely to bring power draw and temperature in line.

Barnabas Reynolds · Feb 25, 2019

Trieu said:
- 8 Tflops and lower : extremely unlikely
- 8-10 Tflops : possible, but I feel positive about Navi achieving good clocks so I think below 10Tflops is unlikely
- 10-12 Tflops : where my money is. 10Tflops is what I would expect. 12 Tflops is what would impress me
- 12-15 Tflops : unlikely, almost impossible. Maybe a higher priced console?
- 15+ Tflops : absolutely impossible in my opinion.

I agree, the number of CUs you would need to get to 15TF while staying at or below 1500MHz is absurd. Another member posted and said that, even at 7nm, a 64 CU GPU would take up something like 300mm^2. People are getting way ahead of themselves, imo, and it's mostly because there's no real info and everyone is free to speculate, physics be damned.

Quoting myself:

Barnabas Reynolds said:
Nooooope. 15 TF is something like 79 CUs at 1500MHz, or 90 CUs at 1300Mhz. Good luck with that.

And this member:

dgrdsv said:
Vega 20 is 64 CUs at ~1700MHz and it's eating 300W of power to get to this 13 TFLOPS mark.
Navi or whatever will go into next gen consoles will have to make MAJOR improvements in power efficiency for anything like what you're describing to be remotely possible.
And going with a wider GPU will lead to significant production costs increases. Even a 64 CU part like Vega will likely be close to 300mm^2 on 7nm - assuming that it will retain Vega's feature set.
PS4's APU is ~350mm^2 total, XBO is ~370 and XBX is ~350. With Jaguars being swapped for Zens the footprint of non-GPU part is unlikely to be smaller than in OG PS4.
Basically, expecting a 64 CU part in a first iteration of next gen consoles is already a bit out there. More than 64 CUs seems highly unlikely.

BreakAtmo · Feb 25, 2019

Trieu said:
It is hard to say because I don't know what Navi will bring. I mean Vega is horrible and the new Vega VII clocks to 1740~ (I think) and I would expect Navi to be an improvement on that. If I had to take a hard guess I'd say Navi Desktop parts clock to 1800MHZ boost. (but it comes down to how the architecture works. It is way way way above my paygrade and understanding, but we have seen a continuous rise in clockspeed in the last 5 years).

I think 1600MHZ would be the possible highend for console with good cooling, but I think 1400mhz is much more likely to bring power draw and temperature in line.

Yeah, they would want to be at least somewhat careful. If that major rise in clock speeds applies to consoles then they can make something nice and powerful without risking boxes bursting into flames.

VX1 · Feb 25, 2019

Trieu said:
I think 1600MHZ would be the possible highend for console with good cooling, but I think 1400mhz is much more likely to bring power draw and temperature in line.

Frankly,i disagree.
1.3-1.4 GHz is something i expect in high end $499 Xbox.
$399 PS5 will probably end in 1.1-1.2 GHz range.

Trieu · Feb 25, 2019

VX1 said:
Frankly,i disagree.
1.3-1.4 GHz is something i expect in high end $499 Xbox.
$399 PS5 will probably end in 1.1-1.2 GHz range.

That would be a huge waste in my opinion considering modern chips are designed in a way so they can have higher clocks. 1.1 GHZ clock on a 7nm would probably be considered a stupid economic decision because you require too many CUs to get to the desired TFLOPs making your console too expensive for yourself (Sony).

We will see "soon" when Navi GPUs are shown. If Navi GPUs are at 1700Mhz+ (like I expect) then having the PS5 run at 1100mhz would be a gigantic waste. That would be like having the PS4 run at 500MHZ.

modiz · Feb 25, 2019

Trieu said:
That would be a huge waste in my opinion considering modern chips are designed in a way so they can have higher clocks. 1.1 GHZ clock on a 7nm would probably be considered a stupid economic decision because you require too many CUs to get to the desired TFLOPs making your console too expensive for yourself (Sony).

We will see "soon" when Navi GPUs are shown. If Navi GPUs are at 1700Mhz+ (like I expect) then having the PS5 run at 1100mhz would be a gigantic waste. That would be like having the PS4 run at 500MHZ.

i know this isnt any proof but the AMD leaker komachi said on twitter they expect Navi 10 (the chip the PS5 is supposedly based on) to be clocked at 2GHZ, but i think that is more of a speculation rather than fact.

VX1 · Feb 25, 2019

anexanhume ,what do you make of this?

Trieu · Feb 25, 2019

modiz said:
i know this isnt any proof but the AMD leaker komachi said on twitter they expect Navi 10 (the chip the PS5 is supposedly based on) to be clocked at 2GHZ, but i think that is more of a speculation rather than fact.

I can certainly see it happening. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see Navi Desktop cards that high 2GHZ or even higher when overclocked.

I believe in Sony and Mark Cerny. They will find the sweet spot of performance/amounts of CU needed to keep costs down/clockspeed/thermals/size/cooling.

(that doesn't mean that I think the PS5 will be 2GHZ !)

anexanhume · Feb 25, 2019

VX1 said:
anexanhume ,what do you make of this?

Exactly what it says. There are 4 discrete Navi die, suggesting it will have a wide performance lineup.

APUs generally lag CPU/GPU only products, so no surprise there.

Edit: more SMU updates. Nothing too sexy.

https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=AMDGPU-SMU-Export-More

VX1 · Feb 25, 2019

anexanhume said:
Exactly what it says. There are 4 discrete Navi die, suggesting it will have a wide performance lineup.

APUs generally lag CPU/GPU only products, so no surprise there.

Cool,thanks.

SeanMN · Feb 25, 2019

VX1 said:
Frankly,i disagree.
1.3-1.4 GHz is something i expect in high end $499 Xbox.
$399 PS5 will probably end in 1.1-1.2 GHz range.

Trieu said:
That would be a huge waste in my opinion considering modern chips are designed in a way so they can have higher clocks. 1.1 GHZ clock on a 7nm would probably be considered a stupid economic decision because you require too many CUs to get to the desired TFLOPs making your console too expensive for yourself (Sony).

We will see "soon" when Navi GPUs are shown. If Navi GPUs are at 1700Mhz+ (like I expect) then having the PS5 run at 1100mhz would be a gigantic waste. That would be like having the PS4 run at 500MHZ.

I mostly agree with Trieu. I don't think either next gen console will have GPU clocks lower than what is already in the 1X (1172 MHZ).

I think somewhere in the 1200 range is the lowest well see for PS5. I think the engineering work MS did on the cooling solution, hovis method, and efficient power supply on the 1X was forward looking, and will translate directly to their next console. I expect next gen Xbox to clock a bit higher than PS5, somewhere in the 1300-1500 range.

tyfon · Feb 25, 2019

Noctis114 said:
Unfortunately the general populace aren't going to care about the CPU's power (which is a damn same tbh) but the GPU's power, which they'll base each console on the teraflops, 4TF vs 8TF vs 12TF etc.

TBH when people buy consoles most don't care about power at all.
I switched from PC to console in 2016 and bought a PS4 since that had the games not due to the power. And I'm a nerd. I really had no idea what the power of it was, I just assumed it was lower than what I had in my PC at that time anyway.

I also have a friend that is a die-hard GTAV player that gushed about how much better it looked after he bought the PS4 pro. After a 10 minute speech I broke to him that there is no pro patch for GTAV :p

And look at the Switch sales..

Deleted member 40133 · Feb 25, 2019

Navi 14? So....what's this supposed Navi 10lite Sony is using?

Anthony Hopkins · Feb 25, 2019

console lover said:
Navi 14? So....what's this supposed Navi 10lite Sony is using?

A lower clocked Navi 10?

EvilChameleon · Feb 25, 2019

If there is indeed a digital-only box for Microsoft, do you folks think they'll make it easier to buy digital games via those card things that have the codes on them?

anexanhume · Feb 25, 2019

tyfon said:
TBH when people buy consoles most don't care about power at all.
I switched from PC to console in 2016 and bought a PS4 since that had the games not due to the power. And I'm a nerd. I really had no idea what the power of it was, I just assumed it was lower than what I had in my PC at that time anyway.

I also have a friend that is a die-hard GTAV player that gushed about how much better it looked after he bought the PS4 pro. After a 10 minute speech I broke to him that there is no pro patch for GTAV :p

And look at the Switch sales..

People often make the mistake of applying their own experience/beliefs as a generalization to all consumers.

tyfon · Feb 25, 2019

anexanhume said:
People often make the mistake of applying their own experience/beliefs as a generalization to all consumers.

Could be but I've never heard anyone outside of these forums mention terraflops when talking about their consoles.

Barsi · Feb 25, 2019

Anyone has that table with the CUs and MHZ converting to TFLOPS?

Deleted member 17092 · Feb 25, 2019

Vega 56 is a 10.5 tflop part at stock boost clock (1471mhz).

Honestly I'd probably expect around 56 CUs and 1500mhz clocks. You could realistically get tdp down to maybe 150w-200w or so on a 7nm 56cu set up with a ryzen APU set up.

So yeah right in the 11tflop range I'd expect.

We'll see an improvement over X but a lot of that is coming from the CPU being less of a bottleneck honestly.

It's enough for cranked 4k30 or more performance oriented games 4k60. Those are the targets.

It's good enough for 1080p 120hz honestly but I'm not sure how many devs will build that out on console.

anexanhume · Feb 25, 2019

Barsi said:
Anyone has that table with the CUs and MHZ converting to TFLOPS?

It's threadmarked.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Feb 25, 2019

SeanMN said:
I mostly agree with Trieu. I don't think either next gen console will have GPU clocks lower than what is already in the 1X (1172 MHZ).

I think somewhere in the 1200 range is the lowest well see for PS5. I think the engineering work MS did on the cooling solution, hovis method, and efficient power supply on the 1X was forward looking, and will translate directly to their next console. I expect next gen Xbox to clock a bit higher than PS5, somewhere in the 1300-1500 range.

While I think the vapour chamber cooling and more efficient power supply can be used for MS's next-gen console, i'm doubtful the hovis method scales for a mass market console. There's also nothing that precludes Sony also being inspired by MS's work on the XB1X and sourcing a high efficiency power supply and using vapour chamber cooling either.

I do think a cooling solution using heat pipes will be adopted by both, mainly because they're rather a bit cheaper and in terms of max. heat fluxes they can dissipate, there really isn't much between them (it's very much implementation dependent).

On the clocks, I don't see MS managing significantly higher clocks than Sony. Clocks are determined by launch yields, not cooling. Both with launch on the same node within 6months of each other, so you're not going to see significantly higher clocks from MS or Sony, unless there's a significant difference in GPU CUs between them (in which the smaller die APU will clock higher within a similar power envelope).

BradGrenz · Feb 25, 2019

modiz said:
we are talking about an nvme SSD, so yea its price is high. i am seeing market prices at 150$ and above, of course MS probably pays less but i cant see it being much less than 100$ per unit. even if you take out the disc drive, we are still talking about a significant effect.

Again, the price difference you are seeing is a reflection of NVMe drives being marketed as performance premium devices. The cost difference to make an M2 SATA drive vs an M2 NVMe drive is actually negligible. You can make a modest NVMe drive that would be faster than a SATA3 drive using the same exact flash chips ands controller. One of the "SSD in Scarlet" leaks floating around even specified a 1GB/s speed which is slow compared to the high end NVMe drives out there, but perfectly in line with a cost conscious device NVMe device that only uses 2 PCIe lanes instead of 4.

Jeffram · Feb 25, 2019

Barnabas Reynolds said:
I agree, the number of CUs you would need to get to 15TF while staying at or below 1500MHz is absurd. Another member posted and said that, even at 7nm, a 64 CU GPU would take up something like 300mm^2. People are getting way ahead of themselves, imo, and it's mostly because there's no real info and everyone is free to speculate, physics be damned.

Quoting myself:

And this member:

What's the math on the die size? I remember earlier in this thread someone saying that something 80 CUs at 7nm would take up roughly the same size as the 36 CUs at 16nm that's in the pro?

Fastidioso · Feb 25, 2019

anexanhume said:
People often make the mistake of applying their own experience/beliefs as a generalization to all consumers.

I don't see any personalisation in the post quoted. Brute force has never been a sell point for the masses in the home console market. They are more interested to a balanced hardware with a good price point than a monster machine. This month xbox brand has been the lower sku selling in the US, their lead market. Such result speaks enough for itself.

anexanhume · Feb 25, 2019

Fastidioso said:
I don't see any personalisation in the post quoted. Brute force has never been a sell point for the masses in the home console market. They are more interested to a balanced hardware with a good price point than a monster machine. This month xbox brand has been the lower sku selling in the US, their lead market. Such result speaks enough for itself.

Yeah, me neither I guess

TBH when people buy consoles most don't care about power at all.
I switched from PC to console in 2016 and bought a PS4 since that had the games not due to the power. And I'm a nerd. I really had no idea what the power of it was, I just assumed it was lower than what I had in my PC at that time anyway.

I also have a friend that is a die-hard GTAV player that gushed about how much better it looked after he bought the PS4 pro. After a 10 minute speech I broke to him that there is no pro patch for GTAV :p

And look at the Switch sales..

Trieu · Feb 25, 2019

Jeffram said:
What's the math on the die size? I remember earlier in this thread someone saying that something 80 CUs at 7nm would take up roughly the same size as the 36 CUs at 16nm that's in the pro?

That would be interesting to hear yeah. I know the Vega VII has 60 CUs at 331mm² on 7nm, but no idea how that translates to Navi. I think the memory interface bus also takes up place on the die from HBM2. I did find the article from Richard Leadbetter where he talks about 80 CUs is possible in next gen but that is from April 2018.

anexanhume · Feb 25, 2019

Trieu said:
That would be interesting to hear yeah. I know the Vega VII has 60 CUs at 331mm² on 7nm, but no idea how that translates to Navi. I think the memory interface bus also takes up place on the die from HBM2. I did find the article from Richard Leadbetter where he talks about 80 CUs is possible in next gen but that is from April 2018.

It's 64 CUs with 4 disabled. HBM2 is a 4096-but interface, which is indeed likely larger than a 256-bit GDDR6 interface.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Feb 25, 2019

Have we seen a die shot of Radeon VII yet?

Can't we estimate the density improvement for logic based on the comparison between it and Vega 20?

anexanhume · Feb 25, 2019

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Have we seen a die shot of Radeon VII yet?

Can't we estimate the density improvement for logic based on the comparison between it and Vega 20?

We've seen a die shot for MI60/MI25, which is the same die. It's clear the CUs shrank more than the overall die did, proportions wise.

Bloodcore · Feb 25, 2019

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Have we seen a die shot of Radeon VII yet?

Can't we estimate the density improvement for logic based on the comparison between it and Vega 20?

anexanhume said:
We've seen a die shot for MI60/MI25, which is the same die. It's clear the CUs shrank more than the overall die did, proportions wise.

Here is a photo from AMD/Anandtech.
The HBM2 controllers seems to be taking a fair amount of die space.

modiz · Feb 25, 2019

Seem like komachi leaked images of Navi 10 and Navi 14 and then deleted them. I missed that post...

Deleted member 12635 · Feb 25, 2019

Bloodcore said:
Here is a photo from AMD/Anandtech.
The HBM2 controllers seems to be taking a fair amount of die space.

Wow, already 331 mm^2. I would assume a SOC with a CPU on the same die and 64CUs will be slightly the same size if not even bigger. Hmm maybe I have to go down in CUs in my prediction and move up the clock instead ...

Bloodcore · Feb 25, 2019

Colbert said:
Wow, already 331 mm^2. I would assume a SOC with a CPU on the same die and 64CUs will be slightly the same size if not even bigger. Hmm maybe I have to go down in CUs in my prediction and move up the clock instead ...

Yeah, probably somewhere close to it.
My guess is that the GDDR6 controller is going to be around half the size of the HBM2 controllers.
Vega20 is simply a " decent port" to 7nm, so there is probably additional die space savings to be had and then there is the compute specific hardware features, it'll shave off a bit as well.

With a 75-80mm2 Zen2 die, you'll probably end up at somewhere between 300-335mm2.
I suppose we should hope that the consoles will be using 7nm+, it'll place it at around 260-300mm2.
Though there is a possibility that Navi shrinks down some of the components without losing performance.

VX1 · Feb 25, 2019

Colbert said:
Hmm maybe I have to go down in CUs in my prediction and move up the clock instead

Looking forward to see the new graph!

BAD · Feb 25, 2019

I'm afraid about cross gen happening for a long time again. I hated the obvious limitations of cross gen titles this cycle.

Pheonix · Feb 25, 2019

VX1 said:
This is what i expect in $399 PS5. And speaking of GPU clocks,Sony was very conservative with that in both PS4 and Pro (800 and 911 MHz) and i expect the same in PS5 ( a bit above 1 GHz but not much).

Doesnt really make sense though. You aren't taking architecture gains into account.

PS4 was 800Mhz while the OG XB1 was like 850Mhz (so we can't even say that sony was being conservative.)

We will have an idea where the PS5 clock will be when we et official Navi numbers. If AMDs navi GPU has a clock as high as 1.8hz to 2Ghz (as rumored) then even being conservative there is n reason the PS5 can't be as high as 1.3hz. And that is being conservative. But we will find out when navi hits the market.

And t put things into context, the PS4pro was based on a GPU that has a base and boost clock of 1120Mhz and 1266Mhz respectively. Coming in at 911Mhz isn't exactly what I would call conservative using normal cooling and cooling for a CPU too.

Pheonix · Feb 25, 2019

Colbert said:
Wow, already 331 mm^2. I would assume a SOC with a CPU on the same die and 64CUs will be slightly the same size if not even bigger. Hmm maybe I have to go down in CUs in my prediction and move up the clock instead ...

HBM........

Honestly those are all round just bad GPUs to use as a measure for what will be in the next gen consoles.

Philippo · Feb 25, 2019

BAD said:
I'm afraid about cross gen happening for a long time again. I hated the obvious limitations of cross gen titles this cycle.

Me too, but i remember Benji talking about how the industry seems more keen on a quicker turnaround and that there is more positivity about the transition.
Hope its true!

Deleted member 12635 · Feb 25, 2019

VX1 said:
Looking forward to see the new graph!

Here it is ... Variant (2) opts for a smaller die size ...

Revision 3 changes:
Memory speed GDDR6 14GB/s chips for all consoles
Reduced CU count for PS5 in general compared to Xbox Pro
Added Variant (2) with lower CU count but higher clock speed

Trieu · Feb 25, 2019

Nice graph. I think baseline prediction means extremely conservative assumptions ?

VX1 · Feb 25, 2019

Colbert said:
Here it is ... Variant (2) opts for a smaller die size ...

Revision 3 changes:
Memory speed GDDR6 14GB/s chips for all consoles
Reduced CU count for PS5 in general compared to Xbox Pro
Added Variant (2) with lower CU count but higher clock speed

Good work!

Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019

When will the first 'next gen' console be revealed?

First half of 2019

Second half of 2019(let's say post E3)

First half of 2020

2021 :^)

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