Next-gen PS5 and next Xbox speculation |OT11| All Hell Has Broken Loose. CONTEST INSIDE!

How many teraflops will next gen consoles be

  • Some

    Votes: 33 7.8%
  • Many

    Votes: 64 15.2%
  • The cast of Taxi (1978 - 1983)

    Votes: 50 11.8%
  • None

    Votes: 20 4.7%
  • As many walnuts as I can fit in this bag

    Votes: 64 15.2%
  • If a moose is in a forest, could it bite itself?

    Votes: 64 15.2%
  • 1.21 jigawatts

    Votes: 127 30.1%

  • Total voters
    422

bsigg

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,419
and why do you think the hardware will be profitable from day 1? its nonsense when the PS4 wasnt, and the games division was making much less money back then,
I said if they want it to be profitable. Their CFO is more interested in MAUs while other execs are worried about profiting off the hardware so clearly theirs some headbutting going on at Sony at a higher level on how to price it.
 

LavaBadger

Member
Nov 14, 2017
2,251
But then why would he have said the Xbox's specs he saw semed a lot less expensive than the PS5's ones he had seen?

I'm not saying his conclusion are right. Just that it's a bit overly dismissive to just handwave it like that.
I honestly think there's little reason to give it consideration. I think his record and general lack of knowledge on the actual specifics of the video game industry demonstrate fundamental misunderstandings, and his conclusions mean little.

Whatever information was presented to him (If any) was entirely likely to have been misinterpreted. I don't trust that he understood whatever spec data he saw enough to conclude anything meaningful.
 

CosmicBolt

Member
Oct 28, 2017
817
Oct 26, 2017
5,580
United Kingdom
So lets map this out. Sony is 450. MS $460. They have $70-80 more to play with.

Last gen on 28nm, it cost Sony $100 for a 350mm2 die. MS paid $110 for 380mm2. 405mm2 would mean $120.

Are we expecting the costs to remain stagnant? AMD said 7nm is almost twice as expensive as 28nm. That would put the die cost at $200-240 and blow past the $70-80 extra budget they have given themselves.

Let's assume, the costs to fabricate the silicon are the same. We still have SSDs which are at least twice as expensive as HDDs were last gen. So thats an extra $37.

That leaves them $33 for a bigger chip, any extra RAM costs (goodbye HBM), audio chip, new controller features, cooling etc. Though they did say that cooling apparently only costs a few dollars now. I paid $90 for a liquid heatsink recently. i doubt that thing only cost a few dollars to make.

If the fab costs are the same as last gen, I can see both Sony and MS going with 400mm2 APUs with that $450 budget. But i highly doubt that. Remember Pachter said $1000 ps5. turns out it was less than half that. but ruthenticcookie said that they were going to take a $100 loss and sell at $499, that points to a BOM over $500 but less than $550. we know that thats no longer the case either.
The costs won't remain stagnant for the main processors but I do believe there will be a slight increase in cost for that component.

The AMD comments about 7nm being 2x cost includes engineering costs which will not be borne by AMD customers like Sony and MS.

We also have no idea about the SSD costs when we don't know how the device will be configured in the design. There's every possible it will be entirely custom, meaning the cost of the NAND chips, DRAM (if necessary), controller etc will be the key costs and paying wholesale prices with volume discounts, I think the overall cost will be comparable to what Sony/MS paid for the HDD in 2013.

As for your last paragraph, I'm not really sure what you're driving at here. Although to your final point, we don't actually know anything. Even Bloomberg's BOM figures are just estimates that won't necessarily reflect the realty of what Sony/MS are evaluating internally.
 

Rösti

Member
Oct 25, 2017
582
With the lack of (reveal) events announced for Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5, I was reminded of the XBOX PLATFORM DEEP DIVE session (focused on Xbox One/Durango most likely, as was speculated back then) Microsoft had on Thursday, March 7, 2013 during their START FY14 event.






The Start FY events have continued every year since then, but I haven't heard any concrete details about the event for this year. Maybe someone with knowledge on this? Sure would be nice to get a glimpse on the agenda of this year's event.
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,063
The costs won't remain stagnant for the main processors but I do believe there will be a slight increase in cost for that component.

The AMD comments about 7nm being 2x cost includes engineering costs which will not be borne by AMD customers like Sony and MS.
Interesting. In that case, i think $70 premium should be enough for a bigger die AND better cooling. (x1x vs Pro) I just hope Cerny didnt go all in on the SSD and made the APU and cooling a priority over the SSD and RAM.
 

IkarugaDE

Member
Feb 3, 2020
73
Based on what we’ve heard so far, it does seem that the SSD at least had priority over the APU.
As I remember the fast loading time (due to an SSD) was the first thing ever sony told about the PS5, at a point they didn't even talked about next gen. So SSD will stay a huge thing.

Edit: Please ignore that, read it wrong. I should definitely go to sleep... :D
 

Aladan

Member
Dec 23, 2019
18
We have an estimated value for the production of the consoles and we know so little about most of the real hardware parts and their suppliers. We also know nothing about contracts with them.

My take on it: Both consoles will be very similar and we will see Lockhart in 2021 or 2022. At the moment I can't believe MS can produce two different consoles for this launch window.

Ah and by the way. Some users talk about the cooling system costs of the Playstation 5. Perhaps the same persons should consider the same for the Xbox and their solution that only needs one big single fan. Anyone who builds PCs should know that the passive cooling elements in this little tower won't be cheap.
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,056
The SSD is Cerny’s baby. The way he hypes it I want to think it will still live up to claim of faster than anything available on PC market. I am really ready for another Wired article if we get nothing else.
 
Dec 27, 2019
650
What have we heard that suggests that?

Or is this more like "since they have talked about SSD and not APU then it must be more important?" type thing?

Guess that also means they prioritized the controller over the APU too...
For one, no mention of the GPU at CES. Was it mentioned much at all in the wired interview? Plus, the leaks we hear from developers more often mention the ultra fast SSD more than anything.

EDIT - And keep in mind, I said “based on what we’ve heard so far.”
 
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Dave.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,807
With the lack of (reveal) events announced for Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5, I was reminded of the XBOX PLATFORM DEEP DIVE session (focused on Xbox One/Durango most likely, as was speculated back then) Microsoft had on Thursday, March 7, 2013 during their START FY14 event.






The Start FY events have continued every year since then, but I haven't heard any concrete details about the event for this year. Maybe someone with knowledge on this? Sure would be nice to get a glimpse on the agenda of this year's event.
That's quite a "resetera" colour scheme, lol!
 

Aliand

Member
Oct 28, 2017
155
For one, no mention of the GPU at CES. Was it mentioned much at all in the wired interview? Plus, the leaks we hear from developers more often mentions the ultra fast SSD more than anything.

EDIT - And keep in mind, I said “based on what we’ve heard so far.”
I take it that it is the fact that they did not communicate on the APU ? Which does not mean really anything, as they might have just wanted to give focus to something that makes a direct difference for players (you can grab a coffee while loading GTA5 :D )
With regards to the devs, I recall seeing Insiders' recounting that there were praises about the SSD being faster than the usual stuff but they did not get into details of APU either for the PlayStation 5 or the X Box Series X aside from the small differences in power and up the double digit?
 

AegonSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,063
The SSD is Cerny’s baby. The way he hypes it I want to think it will still live up to claim of faster than anything available on PC market. I am really ready for another Wired article if we get nothing else.
Cerny in the new wired article:

- before we begin, just want to confirm the ps5 has hardware baked ray tracing for the 16th time. this announcement is for senjustusage only.
- ps5 cpu has an L3 cache
- ps5 ram has bandwidth.
- ps5 price will be appealing to everyone except for sony execs.
- the end. see you in the coming months.
 

Chamon

Member
Feb 26, 2019
315
What I find weird is that Sony stepped in to clarify that PS5 has hardware ray tracing because rumors where all over internet saying it may not had, but now they remain silent when there is a lot of talking about PS5 being less powerful than Xbox.

Also all this thing about finding hard adjusting the price, being the bom at 450$, makes me think that they were aiming for a 400 retail product.

I want to believe that PS5 is over 12tf, but so far, in my opinion, everything is pointing to that not being the case...
 

III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,056
Cerny in the new wired article:

- before we begin, just want to confirm the ps5 has hardware baked ray tracing for the 16th time. this announcement is for senjustusage only.
- ps5 cpu has an L3 cache
- ps5 ram has bandwidth.
- ps5 price will be appealing to everyone except for sony execs.
- the end. see you in the coming months.
Is a controller included?
 

Dave.

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,807
What I find weird is that Sony stepped in to clarify that PS5 has hardware ray tracing because rumors where all over internet saying it may not had, but now they remain silent when there is a lot of talking about PS5 being less powerful than Xbox.

Also all this thing about finding hard adjusting the price, being the bom at 450$, makes me think that they were aiming for a 400 retail product.

I want to believe that PS5 is over 12tf, but so far, in my opinion, everything is pointing to that not being the case...
I had a similar thought today as I read yet another article (this time in print, Wireframe magazine p26) stating Microsoft won't have any actual next-gen games. You'd think if the truth was actually the interpretation where Matt Booty meant 2 years max X1S support from the date of his statement, and a bevvy of real next gen games were to be expected in time for Christmas 2021, MS would have stepped in to correct this now quite widespread and surely damaging "xbox has no (next-gen) games" narrative. No?

It seems in general, these companies very rarely step in to conradict incorrect rumors and speculation.
 

Seshumaru

Member
Oct 27, 2017
797
The Netherlands
What have we heard that suggests that?

Or is this more like "since they have talked about SSD and not APU then it must be more important?" type thing?

Guess that also means they prioritized the controller over the APU too...
Lol so many hot takes......

Honestly I'm starting to wish Sony only talks about the PS5 in September and not a day early. No wired articles, no "deep dives" just plain silence till September the 18th. I want to see the crazy, zombie apocalypse vibe, the desperation...... It's going to be so awesome!!
Here we go again >.>
It's a legitimate question. Is or are the controllers included.....
 

NoUse4AName

Member
Feb 5, 2019
295
So....now that we know that both consoles are almost around the same cost .... isn't that confirm the fact That both console are almost identical in specs?
 

Trieu

Member
Feb 22, 2019
936
So....now that we know that both consoles are almost around the same cost .... isn't that confirm the fact That both console are almost identical in specs?
Not necessarily. The Xbox One was more expensive than the PS4 and the PS4 was much more powerful.
(Okay a big factor was the wasted Kinect cost)
 

funky

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,196
So....now that we know that both consoles are almost around the same cost .... isn't that confirm the fact That both console are almost identical in specs?
Depends how much Sony is pumping into that custom SSD I guess

We already know Xbox is using NVME which will be cheaper over a custom solution.
 

disco_potato

Member
Nov 16, 2017
1,448
Does anyone think the Bloomberg article is a fake or not well sourced?
Not saying I do- just wondering.
There are some flags but doesn't mean all of it is BS. The idea that "most manufacturers spend less than $1 on cooling" was a red flag. Raw materials alone, even looking at PS4/xbone coolers, would be higher than that. History of Bloomberg making up news and misquoting, inserting legit info within speculation, also raised flags.
Why is no other site coming forth with similar info?
As for Zhuge backing up this article, I think he's just saying the BOM is inline with what he's heard.

Depends how much Sony is pumping into that custom SSD I guess

We already know Xbox is using NVME which will be cheaper over a custom solution.
I think the Sony patent, assuming that's what they go with, suggests their custom solution would be a cost saving measure vs off shelf parts.
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
1,706
Israel
Good. Lol.


I distinctly recall sony saying that they needed to sell a first party game with every console to break even on the PS4. We know the PS4 BOM was $380. So retail and distribution costs must have been $80.

If the BOM alone is $450, we are looking at at least a $530 console. you would think sony would be willing to take a $30 loss at $499 and only have to sell 1 first party game for every 2 consoles sold, but they dont feel confident going up against a $499 xbox series x and i dont know why other than the possibility of a 9 tflops $499 console.

if they have to go with $450 because of worse specs, they will have to make up $80 which means selling more than 1 first party game per console which can get very tricky, but not impossible if they launch with horizon and gran turismo 7.
PS4 was sold at a profit by May 2014, just six months after release, maybe even before that. So Sony sold maybe 7 million consoles at a loss while over 100 million consoles were sold in profit. In addition, not all 7 million were sold in a 60$ lose, obviously they narrowed the lose over time until the PS4 was profitable sometimes before May. Actually, just in its first year, Sony sold at most 7 million units at a loss and at least 7 million units at a profit. It goes without saying that we haven't even talked about all the revenue streams they've had in that year, from selling controllers, cameras, games and digital games and services. So I wouldn't look at it from such a grim point of view.
And the RX5700xt costs over $400 and the PS5s GPU is supposedly more powerful than that....

But let's make this simple, I believe that whatever SSD solution sony/Ms uses wouldn't cost them more than $55. So you mean to tell me that you believe it would cost them at least $100?
Well, I'm not the one who said that because HDD in 2013 was 60$ and in the BOM it was 30$ than in 2020 a 100$ SSD will be 50$. First of all, the SSD in these new consoles cost on PC right now 200$+. Second, I wouldn't assume that just because the ratio was 50% with magnetic drives in 2013 it means it will be the same with SSDs in 2020.
 

Seshumaru

Member
Oct 27, 2017
797
The Netherlands
I am proud to announce the controller will include face buttons.
Triggers sold separate?

So....now that we know that both consoles are almost around the same cost .... isn't that confirm the fact That both console are almost identical in specs?
No? Because the PS5 has a more expensive cooling solution so the logical conclusion is that the github leak is right and that the PS5 is sub 9TF.

Serieously we can only know what it means when we have specs and a proper cost analysis..... Lol
 

SharpX68K

Member
Nov 10, 2017
5,830
I could be wrong, but I would think that Sony would benefit more from a $399 price in NA with them eating cost (with that cost coming down in 2021) rather than launch at $499 and have a slower adoption rate. Their PSN revenue is immense. They're expanding services and will offer more premium tier subs.
 

DamnedLife

Member
Oct 31, 2019
111
OK hot take incoming so please bear with me!

So, MAU is a thing and Sony is making a lot of money off of its services and most people agree that they may eat the costs for a couple months until they're profitable,
BUT what if they also choose to go MS way of selling both retail AND financing the console along with their service? Best of both worlds? So instead of getting sandwiched between two MS consoles and two price points; they go a standalone and a bundle to create their own 2 SKUs to avoid it?

Let's say their MSRP retail price for PS5 is $399 and they sell it standalone at that price eating some of the costs.

AND they go MS route of all access and do a similar thing for a bundle of
24 months of PlayStation Plus + a rebranded/reworked PlayStation Now + Playstation 5 for let's say $24.99/mo for 24 months (which is ~$599 in the end)

Which one would you choose? How would you buy your PS5?

Edit: Also if $24.99 seems low it might go up to $29.99 for ~$719 total in the end)
Edit 2: $719 makes more sense since 24 months of plus=$120 + 24 months of Now=$240 leaves $360 for PS5 and much closer to retail price
 
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VX1

Member
Oct 28, 2017
6,215
Europe
I could be wrong, but I would think that Sony would benefit more from a $399 price in NA with them eating cost (with that cost coming down in 2021) rather than launch at $499 and have a slower adoption rate. Their PSN revenue is immense. They're expanding services and will offer more premium tier subs.
Indeed. I am really curious how they imagine “fastest/largest transition ever” that Jim Ryan talked about with $499 price.
 

MrKlaw

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,137
They may consider BC allowing users to trade in PS4/pro to offset/mitigate a $499 retail price
 

Pheonix

Member
Dec 14, 2018
2,201
St Kitts
Well, I'm not the one who said that because HDD in 2013 was 60$ and in the BOM it was 30$ than in 2020 a 100$ SSD will be 50$. First of all, the SSD in these new consoles cost on PC right now 200$+. Second, I wouldn't assume that just because the ratio was 50% with magnetic drives in 2013 it means it will be the same with SSDs in 2020.
I asked you that question specifically to avoid debate or argument. So we could just agree to disagree and see how things pan out.

I am saying that I believe the SSD wouldn't cost them more than $55. That's my speculation, and my reason isn't that HDDs cost them 50% less than retail, butthat was the example I used. So how about you just give an amount you think t would cost them then we see how it pans out?
I could be wrong, but I would think that Sony would benefit more from a $399 price in NA with them eating cost (with that cost coming down in 2021) rather than launch at $499 and have a slower adoption rate. Their PSN revenue is immense. They're expanding services and will offer more premium tier subs.
I believe that sales in the first year wouldn't really be impacted by a $100 markup from say $399. There are at least 15-20M people worldwide that probably wouldn't mind buying a PS5 at $499 in the first 12 months of it being on the market. So while they can obviously sell more at $399, if they did that they would most likely run into stock issues and they would theoretically be leaving money on the table that they don't have to.
 

Trup1aya

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,611
All this talk of MS sandwiching Sony with its 2 machines, we can’t rule out Sony doing something similar. Maybe instead of hardware upgrades a couple of years in, we might see hardware downgrades at lower entry level prices.
I don't see how this would work logistically.

You'd have a every game since launch finely tuned to work with the launch PS5, then a weaker PS5 comes out later. None of those intial games would work .
 

BitsandBytes

Member
Dec 16, 2017
3,656
Indeed. I am really curious how they imagine “fastest/largest transition ever” that Jim Ryan talked about with $499 price.
Someone commented earlier that those comments referred to BC but Jim's comments in the Gamesindustry article seem pretty clear:

As we move towards the next-generation in 2020, one of our tasks -- probably our main task -- is to take that community and transition it from PlayStation 4 to PlayStation 5, and at a scale and pace that we've never delivered on before.
 

NoUse4AName

Member
Feb 5, 2019
295
Triggers sold separate?


No? Because the PS5 has a more expensive cooling solution so the logical conclusion is that the github leak is right and that the PS5 is sub 9TF.

Serieously we can only know what it means when we have specs and a proper cost analysis..... Lol

So...the expensive cooling solution only means that the GitHub Leak is real?

There is not a chance that the cooling solution maybe is expensive because SONY is aiming to a smaller form factor console design ?
 

Nostradamus

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,024
I could be wrong, but I would think that Sony would benefit more from a $399 price in NA with them eating cost (with that cost coming down in 2021) rather than launch at $499 and have a slower adoption rate. Their PSN revenue is immense. They're expanding services and will offer more premium tier subs.
I think you severely underestimate the cost of such a price reduction and at the same time overestimate the profit generated by the PSN. You’ll have to consider whether the number of additional adopters at $399 over $499 is high enough to offset the $100 loss that Sony will be absorbing for ALL adopters.

If for example, Sony sells 50m consoles in 3 years at $399 over 40m consoles at $499 then they will create a hole of 5 billions. Will these 10m additional consoles be able to generate 5 billions in profit to offset the losses generated by the whole base? Unlikely. Also there is nothing on the roadmap to suggest significant cost reductions in the next few years.

PS. The example might be exaggerated a bit but people need to understand that these financial decisions are tough and far more costly that some assume. Also it’s not like services like the PSN have zero running costs to Sony or MS. Yes they are very profitable, but up to a limit.
 
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III-V

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,056
There are some flags but doesn't mean all of it is BS. The idea that "most manufacturers spend less than $1 on cooling" was a red flag. Raw materials alone, even looking at PS4/xbone coolers, would be higher than that. History of Bloomberg making up news and misquoting, inserting legit info within speculation, also raised flags.
Why is no other site coming forth with similar info?
As for Zhuge backing up this article, I think he's just saying the BOM is inline with what he's heard.


I think the Sony patent, assuming that's what they go with, suggests their custom solution would be a cost saving measure vs off shelf parts.
This is about where I am at as well.
 

DrKeo

Member
Mar 3, 2019
1,706
Israel
Just a reminder that this past generation was an anomaly:
Console ---- BOM ---- MSRP ---- Differance ---- Difference adjusted to inflation
PS1 ---------- 430$ ----- 299$ ------- 131$ ----------------- $223
PS2 ---------- 479$ ----- 299$ ------- 180$ ----------------- $271
PS3 ---------- 805$ ----- 599$ ------- 206$ ----------------- $267
360 ---------- 525$ ----- 399$ ------- 126$ ----------------- $167

Will it be optimal for Sony to sell the PS5 at 399$? Probably not. Is there zero chance of them selling it for 399, a 51$ difference between MSRP and BOM, if they feel that they really have to? No, there is a chance. Actually, it will be their smallest BOM to MSRP difference after the PS4.
 

Colbert

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,756
Germany
Just a reminder that this past generation was an anomaly:
Console ---- BOM ---- MSRP ---- Differance ---- Difference adjusted to inflation
PS1 ---------- 430$ ----- 299$ ------- 131$ ----------------- $223
PS2 ---------- 479$ ----- 299$ ------- 180$ ----------------- $271
PS3 ---------- 805$ ----- 599$ ------- 206$ ----------------- $267
360 ---------- 525$ ----- 399$ ------- 126$ ----------------- $167

Will it be optimal for Sony to sell the PS5 at 399$? Probably not. Is there zero chance of them selling it for 399, a 51$ difference between MSRP and BOM, if they feel that they really have too? No, there is a chance. Actually, it will be their smallest BOM to MSRP difference after the PS4.
Wow. PS3.