I was expecting to see deals around $249 for Switch. $300 still, really? PS4 bundle at $200 is going to be very hard to pass up for a parent.
Nintendo needs to sell 14.93 million units in the six months from October 2018 to March 2019
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The advantage Nintendo always has in these situations is their IP and the type of console Switch is (hybrid). I don't think Sony and MS deals are going to negatively impact Nintendo. They're just going to positively impact themselves. An attractive PS4 bundle does far more direct harm to Xbox than Nintendo. If someone wants a Switch bad enough, a cheap PS4 or XB1 isn't going to sway them in another direction. The same applies in the reverse direction, of course.
I think over the we'll get a better idea in the next few weeks when we start getting sales numbers from the Pokémon and smash bundles.
I'm guessing that PS4 bundle will sellout super quickly again this year.
I'm guessing that PS4 bundle will sellout super quickly again this year.
I'm sort of just on the other side of the fence from you. I have an inkling that it will do just fine. I certainly don't think it will flop relative to other mainline games. I wouldn't be surprised if it sold slightly less than, say, Sun & Moon, but I think it will be pretty close.
It's probably because I count myself among the lapsed who can't wait to get back into the series, and a good number of my friends are in the same boat. So I guess I have a problem separating my perspective from the larger market.
To be fair some people on this site will underestimate the appeal of any title once the current fiscal year is over and a new one is about to start. That's just how it is with Nintendo.
Sell the bundled game and you have your $249 price point. Also that PS4 bundle is not gonna last long. Once stock is gone it's over.
I don't think what Sony or MS does will really have any effect on how the Switch does this holiday. These three consoles seem to coexist remarkably well.
There's a $299 bundle including a free $59 game (MK8DX) which is essentially a $59 price cut. So far only at Target but since the game is preloaded onto the system I don't think it will be Target exclusive.
It's not that silly if you sell 10 million but 7 million are people traditionally not interested in consoles who bought a Switch for the game. Specially when a lot of the traditional pokemon fanbase is already in because of other traditional Nintendo core games and they will cater to them with Pokemon 2019.
Of course, maybe It doesn't work and they end up selling like 3-4 million, but that's the gambit.
Listen to some folks here and you'll expect PLG to sell worse than 1-2 Switch.
It's Pokemon...poorly for Pokemon (Emerald ~6m) is a fantastic for other franchises.
We'll start to get an idea in 15 days when Lets GO gets released.
Smash will be a a success, no doubt. But the game that will make Nintendo hit or miss the 20mi mark is Pokemon. If the game succeds in bring the GO players to Switch , then 20mi is a lock.
IMO Nintendo will sell around 18mi this FY wich is a great number. PKMN will sell well but not as good as the traditional series. Maybe 10mi when its all said and done, after all, its Pokemon. But the game wont move as much console as Nintendo wishes.
Smash will be a a success, no doubt. But the game that will make Nintendo hit or miss the 20mi mark is Pokemon. If the game succeds in bring the GO players to Switch , then 20mi is a lock.
IMO Nintendo will sell around 18mi this FY wich is a great number. PKMN will sell well but not as good as the traditional series. Maybe 10mi when its all said and done, after all, its Pokemon. But the game wont move as much console as Nintendo wishes.
I thought the question is actually if PKMN LG will cause people to buy switches, and not whether or not PKMN Go will sell well.
I thought game cube and wii u had well selling games, but the console sales itself was dissapointing and forgettable.
I think a fresh Pokemon game targeted at a neophyte audience is going to put Switches under a lot of Christmas trees.
Theres NSMBUDX in january, but Im not sure how much this game will move consoles.
I'm always wondering how sagas like Mario, Pokemon, Smash or Mario Kart still have their public... And every iteration keeps surprising me with millions of units sold through, so could happen.
I think it's difficult to match those numbers, but who knows. These things are unpredictable with Nintendo
I think it's difficult to match those numbers, but who knows. These things are unpredictable with Nintendo
But the PS4 also comes with a bundled game, a much newer one at that. If that's the argument, then the PS4 is less than $150. I expect PS4 to eat into Switch's sales a bit.
Oh yeah I'm not doubting the PS4 bundle is an insane value at all, just pointing out that this is technically a price drop.
I don't think the PS4 will eat into the Switch's sales all that much though, they haven't really been competing like that since the Switch came out. They've been coexisting remarkably well.
My question with the PS4 is how many of those bundles Sony will be stuffing into the channel. They sold like wildfire last year, but also they sold out very quickly.
I forgot about that one. I think that one should do it if marketed properly and lord knows it has been for the past couple of weeks XD
There was a $199 PS4 bundle last year as well and Switch done fine without a major system seller in Nov or Dec. This year there are some Switch deals and plenty of bundles.
PS4 will do great, but Switch will also do fine.
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Smash will likely still be moving some units in January as well. NSMB only has to help maintain some momentum.
But what is the threshold under which classify "poor relative to most Pokemon titles"?
Naw, I think PS4 and Switch have two fairly different markets. Obviously there's overlap between the two, but it's not a one to one match like PS4 vs Xbox One.
The one way PS4 will eat into Switch is with Fortnite. Parents are going to buy whichever Fortnite bundle is the cheapest for their kids. Are there will be kids out there that will literally only want to play Fortnite.
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I dunno if it'll be that cut and dry. Switch would let a kid play Fornite without taking over the TV.
The $199 PS4 won't have enough stock to negatively impact Switch. If it was a general price drop yes but not a retailer specific BF deal that'll probably sell out within an hour.
This forum is going to collectively have a hernia when Let's Go is both received by critics better than expected and sells like crazy. I'm going to bet it ends up somewhere around ~75-78 on Opencritic with "Hey, this is better than we expected!" reviews.
Nintendo's hitting that 20m units target, mark my words.
Nintendo's hitting that 20m units target, mark my words.
If Animal Crossing releases in March, maybe. Hard to tell. Nintendo does very well during the holidays, though. They might be very successful.
I dunno why, but I've been thinking of that Spider-Man bundle as something that'll last all Holiday. This post is a good refresher that it'll only be available in limited quantities for a few days.
15M during holiday is impossible, 12M is max even DS couldnt pass that.
I predict 10M shipped for both pokemon and smash this holiday
I expect hardware sales to slow. Nintendo fans and diehards (the ones that buy their ip at release) already own a switch. With Nintendos strong start with Mario and Zelda I don't think we will see huge numbers outside of black Friday. Pokemon will sell great but I don't think it will sell 10 million systems.
Sales to slow down in the next 3 months?
That's a brave prediction.
It's a larger market today, but indeed it's a very high mark.
Well, 15m is their forecast until March, so 10m in Oct-Dec and 5m in Jan-Mar would fit that bill.
What result in Q3 would convince you that your intuition is wrong?
Sony outsold them all last year with a simple discount, now they are bundling it with one of the best selling exclusives. I think their going to have a tough fight. Nintendo has to sell almost 4 million units per month with two of those months being slower sales months (Jan and Feb are not as strong sales months).
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I cannot understand why some people think that PS4 doing well means Switch won't do well. The console warrior mentality sure is something else.
It does seem like Nintendo might fall short, but not by much. I originally went with the 20 million though so I think I'll stand by it. Really going to depend on Pokémon, Smash, and their Jan-Mar lineup...and if the rumors are true then we should find out more about that in a direct later this month. If not then I expect we'll still have one in January.
If Animal Crossing somehow drops early in the spring then 20 million is probably a lock. I don't think that will happen, but you never know. Reggie said they don't like to announce games that are beyond a 9 month window if I'm not mistaken, so AC ought to still come sooner than later.
Well, it's a fact that people can only get one console in a holiday season. Also, current PS4 owners aren't interested in Switch. Didn't you know? /s
If Animal Crossing somehow drops early in the spring then 20 million is probably a lock. I don't think that will happen, but you never know. Reggie said they don't like to announce games that are beyond a 9 month window if I'm not mistaken, so AC ought to still come sooner than later.
Well, it's a fact that people can only get one console in a holiday season. Also, current PS4 owners aren't interested in Switch. Didn't you know? /s
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8 million for Smash as a risk? Dude 8 million is like the absolutely minimum, it will easy sell 10 million, i expect Nintendo to ship at the very least 12 million.
Smash could very well ship fewer units than Mario Odyssey did by Dec 31, given that it's launching after Black Friday, with 24 days left during the period, after Black Friday vs. Odyssey which came before Black Friday with 65 days left in the period.
Nintendo will 100% ship more units for Smash D1 than what they did in 3 2 months for Mario Odyssey.
We are gonna see 10 million shipped only for D1.
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