ReactionShot

Member
Oct 25, 2017
505
In China they are obligated to report even mild symptoms to authorities. That's why the WHO didn't find many mild cases of COVID not detected. And the CFR is as of today 3,6% with 79,824 cases and 2,870 deaths.
And this is with some crazy draconian containment measures.

The mortality rate outside Hubei is actually below 1%. The tricky part of this plague is that though most people can recover from it, many of them will need medical assistance. If the health care system get overloaded, like the one in Wuhan did, the mortality rate will surge.Though the situation in Wuhan is better now (the local authorities have closed one of the emergency medical centers due to lack of patients), unfortunately we are beginning to repeat the same pattern in South Korea and Italy. Over 1.6K patients are waiting for sickbeds in Daegu, South Korea and Italy hospitals are already setting up tents outside to take more patients in.
 
Oct 28, 2017
22,596
english.alarabiya.net

‘Lick the shrine’ videos in Iran go viral amid coronavirus fears

Videos showing Iranians kissing and licking Shia shrines despite the risks of coronavirus have gone viral online, amid controversy over calls to close

www.alaraby.co.uk

Applying essential oil to anus 'cures coronavirus': Iranian cleric

Iranian cleric Ayatollah Tabrizian has written extensively on violet leaf oil, which he says has miraculous properties.

wtf

Lick your walmart cart. Or have a friend lick it.

Hold up. the essential oil to anus URL just showed up in the quote. I dont know if we deserve this planet now.
 

vastag

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,250
The mortality rate outside Hubei is actually below 1%. The tricky part of this plague is that though most people can recover from it, many of them will need medical assistance. If the health care system get overloaded, like the one in Wuhan did, the mortality rate will surge.Though the situation in Wuhan is better now (the local authorities have closed one of the emergency medical centers due to lack of patients), unfortunately we are beginning to repeat the same pattern in South Korea and Italy. Over 1.6K patients are waiting for sickbeds in Daegu, South Korea and Italy hospitals are already setting up tents outside to take more patients in.

Exactly, this is the problem. From the latest WHO report:

5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill).

Thats a lot of beds for a long time. Regarding the mortality rate:

An examination of 44,672 infected people in China showed a fatality rate of 3.4%. Fatality is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system. All fatality figures reflect the state of affairs in China up to 17 February, and everything could be quite different in the future elsewhere.

Pre-existing conditions: The fatality rate for those infected with pre-existing cardiovascular disease in China was 13.2%. It was 9.2% for those infected with high blood sugar levels (uncontrolled diabetes), 8.4% for high blood pressure, 8% for chronic respiratory diseases and 7.6% for cancer. Infected persons without a relevant previous illness died in 1.4% of cases.

Age:
0-9 0 as of now
10-19 0.1%
20-29 0.2%
30-39 0.2%
40-49 0.4%
50-59 1.3%
60-69 3.6%
70-79 8.0%
80+ 14.8%

Gender: Women catch the disease just as often as men. But only 2.8% of Chinese women who were infected died from the disease, while 4.7% of the infected men died. The disease appears to be not more severe in pregnant women than in others. In 9 examined births of infected women, the children were born by caesarean section and healthy without being infected themselves. The women were infected in the last trimester of pregnancy. What effect an infection in the first or second trimester has on embryos is currently unclear as these children are still unborn.

Healthcare system: 20% of infected people in China needed hospital treatment for weeks. China has hospital beds to treat 0.4% of the population at the same time - other developed countries have between 0.1% and 1.3% and most of these beds are already occupied with people who have other diseases. The most important thing is firstly to aggressively contain the spread of the virus in order to keep the number of seriously ill Covid patients low and secondly to increase the number of beds (including material and personnel) until there is enough for the seriously ill. China also tested various treatment methods for the unknown disease and the most successful ones were implemented nationwide. Thanks to this response, the fatality rate in China is now lower than a month ago.

A lot more info here: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/
 
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KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,050
The best handling of the situation seems to be in South Korea if their system doesn't collapse in the hotbed region. Way below average number of deaths so far.

Probably because they tested so many people and managed to catch the infected before getting worse symptoms.

Edit: they were also helped because they could easily trace most of them through that cult I guess.
 

DrewFu

Attempted to circumvent ban with an alt-account
Banned
Apr 19, 2018
10,360
Again: The official numbers do not contain an unknown number of infected people without symptoms that were not tested. Therefore these 2% could maybe be considered a rough upper bound.
I agree. I firmly believe the mortality rates are quite a bit lower than the ones based on official numbers.
 

Deleted member 19844

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Oct 28, 2017
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No, I'm claiming that there is no proof that there are enough unreported cases where they really test the people to significantly reduce the mortality rate as you claim using a study that uses outdated data.

Where they don't test enough yet (like in US) both infected and deaths are in very low numbers.
Oh, I get this sense from what we saw on the cruise ship where there were more than 3000 people likely exposed to it but only 700 confirmed cases and 6 deaths so far.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,050
Again: The official numbers do not contain an unknown number of infected people without symptoms that were not tested. Therefore these 2% should maybe be considered a rough upper bound.

You're working under the assumption that no people who don't have the symptoms yet will die. Which might not be true.
 

vastag

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,250
The best handling of the situation seems to be in South Korea if their system doesn't collapse in the hotbed region. Way below average number of deaths so far.

Probably because they tested so many people and managed to catch the infected before getting worse symptoms.

Edit: they were also helped because they could easily trace most of them through that cult I guess.

The WHO recommends focusing on non-pharmaceutical interventions.

COVID-19 is spreading with astonishing speed; COVID-19 outbreaks in any setting have very serious consequences; and there is now strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions can reduce and even interrupt transmission. Concerningly, global and national preparedness planning is often ambivalent about such interventions. However, to reduce COVID-19 illness and death, near-term readiness planning must embrace the large-scale implementation of high-quality, non-pharmaceutical public health measures. These measures must fully incorporate immediate case detection and isolation, rigorous close contact tracing and monitoring/quarantine, and direct population/community engagement.
 

KingSnake

Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,050
Oh, I get this sense from what we saw on the cruise ship where there were more than 3000 people likely exposed to it but only 700 confirmed cases and 6 deaths so far.

We don't know how much of a statistically sound sample that is.

Anyhow I think all these discussions are happening too early, the epidemic is not even close to its peak. We'll know better after it.
 

MasterChumly

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,917
There is absolutely no evidence that the CFR is significantly below 2%. I don't know why people continue to do armchair analysis to try and downplay the situation
 

Lafazar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,598
Bern, Switzerland
You're working under the assumption that no people who don't have the symptoms yet will die. Which might not be true.
That is true of course. In the end we do not know much yet and all of these armchair calculations are not conclusive evidence. They can give us some indications, though.

I would argue that South Korea has been much more thorough with their testing than Italy, also recording lots of cases with mild or no symptoms. Plus, their numbers are a lot higher and it has been going on longer threre. Their current numbers lead to the following mortality percentage which looks a lot less scary:
21/3736 = 0,00562 = 0.562%

This is also not conclusive and your argument that some of the current cases may yet die stands, but we should be open to the possibility that the mortality rate at the moment might be lower than initially feared.

Of course this could still change drastically when medical services get overwhelmed, so we will only truly know once this is over.
 
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Sems4arsenal

Member
Apr 7, 2019
3,634
Some major sporting event will be cancelled in the next coming weeks, and that will be the start of it. A snowball effect with cancellations of major sporting events will follow.

This is how I'm seeing the next few weeks, as this is really getting out of hand.
 

Inquisitive_Ghost

Cranky Ghost Pokemon
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,152
With the reports of people panic buying and stuff, it reminded me that I still hadn't assembled an emergency kit, which I've been meaning to do for a while. So I got some granola bars, canned meat, canned vegetables, canned fruit, dried fruit, nuts, etc. this weekend and make a dedicated space for them in the storage room. I'll keep assembling some of the water and non-food stuff over the next month, probably.

One thing I am not seeing mentioned anywhere near enough is that if you are a woman or are preparing an emergency/quarantine kit for a family that includes women, you need to have a package of pads or tampons in the emergency kit.
 

Patsy

Member
Jun 7, 2019
1,286
Germany
A high school class in my city here in northern Germany is literally debating currently whether they want to go on a class trip to northern Italy or not. This is fucking insane, just stay home for the time being good god.

One thing I am not seeing mentioned anywhere near enough is that if you are a woman or are preparing an emergency/quarantine kit for a family that includes women, you need to have a package of pads or tampons in the emergency kit.

Trans men & nonbinary people get periods too, but yeah, this is super important if you don't already have a few packs at home.
 

vastag

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,250
To people posting morality rate is 3-4%, can you prove or post a source?

Because I think that's very inaccurate, based on what I've read. Example: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.amp.html

You have an informative analysis of the fatality rate here. The WHO analysis in China states that is around 3.4%, but is strongly influenced by age, pre-existing conditions, gender, and especially the response of the health care system.
 

mario_O

Member
Nov 15, 2017
2,755
That is true of course. In the end we do not know much yet and all of these armchair calculations are not conclusive evidence. They can give us some indications, though.

I would argue that South Korea has been much more thorough with their testing than Italy, also recording lots of cases with mild or no symptoms. Plus, their numbers are a lot higher and it has been going on longer threre. Their current numbers lead to the following mortality percentage which looks a lot less scary:
21/3736 = 0,00562 = 0.562%

This is also not conclusive and your argument that some of the current cases may yet die stands, but we should be open to the possibility that the mortality rate at the moment might be lower than initially feared.

Of course this could still change drastically when medical services get overwhelmed, so we will only truly know once this is over.
Things aren't so good in South Korea. Hospitals are getting overwhelmed. 1662 people are waiting at home for a hospital bed. Two of them died today while waiting.
 

Deleted member 33082

User requested account closure
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Nov 14, 2017
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Some major sporting event will be cancelled in the next coming weeks, and that will be the start of it. A snowball effect with cancellations of major sporting events will follow.

This is how I'm seeing the next few weeks, as this is really getting out of hand.
Many major sport events have already been cancelled/postponed, such as Juventus-Inter in Serie A and the MotoGP race in Qatar
 

Inquisitive_Ghost

Cranky Ghost Pokemon
Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,152
Trans men & nonbinary people get periods too, but yeah, this is super important if you don't already have a few packs at home.
Right, of course. If you're assembling a kit for anyone afflicted by menstruation, whether that be yourself or someone else. Should probably have one pack per person that might need it.

Generally, anyone who deals with that will always have some around, but I'd put a dedicated one in the kit that is never to be touched otherwise. It's one of those things you really don't want to not have when you need them.
 

Garchia3.0

Member
Dec 20, 2018
1,859
The biggest danger of this virus is how the mortality rate goes up as hospitals get overloaded. It's still too early to determine an accurate number, given it's an on-going pandemic and some countries have re-adjusted their criteria to count confirmed cases.
 

Vestal

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 26, 2017
2,297
Tampa FL
Just got a text from a colleague a friend of his sent him a picture of a letter from Doctors Hospital of Sarasota dated March 1, 2020 confirming 1 case of COVID-19.. However I have not seen anything online yet.
 

Lafazar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,598
Bern, Switzerland
Things aren't so good in South Korea. Hospitals are getting overwhelmed. 1662 people are waiting at home for a hospital bed. Two of them died today while waiting.


The biggest danger of this virus is how the mortality rate goes up as hospitals get overloaded. It's still too early to determine an accurate number, given it's an on-going pandemic and some countries have re-adjusted their criteria to count confirmed cases.
Agreed. That is probably going to be the major problem everywhere. People dying that would otherwise have survived because they could not receive the necessary care because of the overwhelming numbers.

I was thinking that maybe people that have been confirmed immune (those without symptoms or with mild symptoms) could volunteer to take care of the severe cases at their homes. But then we would still need the necessary medical equipment.
 

Deleted member 19844

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Oct 28, 2017
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Agreed. That is probably going to be the major problem everywhere. People dying that would otherwise have survived because they could not receive the necessary care because of the overwhelming numbers.

I was thinking that maybe people that have been confirmed immune (those without symptoms or with mild symptoms) could volunteer to take care of the severe cases at their homes. But then we would still need the necessary medical equipment.
Out of curiosity, what does hospital treatment entail currently?
 

Lafazar

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,598
Bern, Switzerland
Out of curiosity, what does hospital treatment entail currently?
From the post above by vastag:
WHO report said:
5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill).
 
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Deleted member 16516

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Oct 27, 2017
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What the fuck is happening in Italy? The numbers seem waay above anyone else in the west.
I wouldn't judge the situation in Italy too harshly just yet. It could just be that Italy is a few weeks ahead of other European countries and the situation will worsen in other European countries in the coming weeks. We need more data to determine this though.
 

WinniethePimp

Member
Oct 26, 2017
2,399
EU
The biggest danger of this virus is how the mortality rate goes up as hospitals get overloaded. It's still too early to determine an accurate number, given it's an on-going pandemic and some countries have re-adjusted their criteria to count confirmed cases.

100% agreed. This is THE single biggest determining factor in CFR for every country. Basically if you are among the unlucky 20% and things are NOT under control in your country, well...things aren't looking good for you. Which is why countries need to take drastic measures NOW in order to prevent a bigger outbreak at ALL COSTS. But yeah, economic concerns, optics, and the profound desire to not make your population panic unfortunately do come into play.... What a lot of governments do not seem to realize is that there really is no viable alternative to these more radical measures. At least that's the way i see it for now.
 

Garchia3.0

Member
Dec 20, 2018
1,859
I wouldn't judge the situation in Italy too harshly just yet. It could just be that Italy is a few weeks ahead of other European countries and the situation will worsen in other European countries. We need more data to determine this though.

The situation looks dire in some regions of Italy, unfortunately. Some of their hospitals are overloaded so they're now setting up tents outside to deal with that. They also re-adjusted their criteria to count positive cases: they're actively skipping asymptomatic cases (starting February 28th). According to a report I posted earlier, that's ~50% of the cases. So for every 100 positives, there are 50 more that weren't taken into account for the official release.
 

Orbis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,359
UK
The biggest danger of this virus is how the mortality rate goes up as hospitals get overloaded.
This will be the difference between an overall 2% fatality rate and a higher one. It's critical that hospitals are preparing for the increase in patients requiring critical treatment such as oxygen or even use of a ventilator in severe cases. Naturally countries with worse health care capacity will suffer more. Sadly those more likely to die like the elderly will probably see even worse effect on survival rates, in part due to things like this which exist in UK pandemic plans for example:


One consultant said the "three wise men" protocol had been discussed at his hospital in recent weeks while another from the north of England said it had been raised "informally".

It was initially developed after the 2009 swine flu pandemic but is still included in several NHS trust plans seen by The Independent.


One doctor explained: "If you can imagine the real worst-case scenarios where supply is massively outstripped by demand we would have to refuse to admit many people who would normally get ventilated.

"The Committee on Ethical Aspects of Pandemic Influenza developed Three Wise Men for that circumstance – everyone matters equally, but not everyone gets treatment equally – the goal is to minimise the harm the pandemic causes."
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...sive-care-flu-wise-men-protocol-a9361916.html
 

Deleted member 1476

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Oct 25, 2017
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What the fuck is happening in Italy? The numbers seem waay above anyone else in the west.

Multiple factors. Older population, spread 'apparently' started earlier, so we're looking at what happened weeks ago at this point. This disease may take some time to develop symptoms on people, so we are always looking at the past if we are searching for those that have them right now.
 

Puroresu_kid

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,477
Agreed. That is probably going to be the major problem everywhere. People dying that would otherwise have survived because they could not receive the necessary care because of the overwhelming numbers.

I was thinking that maybe people that have been confirmed immune (those without symptoms or with mild symptoms) could volunteer to take care of the severe cases at their homes. But then we would still need the necessary medical equipment.

Saw some guy over here in the UK suggest the NHS is already stretched and wouldn't be able to handle any widespread epidemic and private hospitals should be forced to open there doors for a national crisis.
 

Deleted member 2254

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Out of the cases that were found, 2-3% seems to be the mortality rate. Sure, a lot of people are likely out there with the virus but it hasn't been shown yet. Italy also just changed its counting so people without symptoms but still getting positive result are no longer counted. And yes, there will also be people dying who currently are unaware of having the virus. It's a tentative number but it currently checks out, so no need to downplay anything.