November 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 5th

[Silencerx98]

i think many people just read the thread and learn something. so, having someone who cannot stop his mental diarrhea provokes serious thoughts, arguments and explanations from your side. that's good. we have next to no numbers but an impressive pagecount and a few good laughs. if they get their ban after a while it's the punishment they deserve.

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Haha, true, true, my friend. Wonder what name and term his next iteration will use to try to disguise himself. XD

I'm still very new here, so I don't know about the history of Microsoft Chad. I guess I fell into a trap lol.

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No worries, Microsoft Chad was a dude back on GAF who kept returning with multiple alts in sales threads. He would defend Microsoft to his grave, but often with extremely absurd and nonsensical points, very much like what you saw in this thread.

 

[James]

Damn MS should hire that man. If he's putting this much work in for free, imagine what he'd do if he was paid in XBL cards.

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They should issue a cease and desist letter. The guy did irreparable harm to the XBox brand in his couple days visiting us.

 

[Deleted member 5727]

Yeah, I didn't know about the history of Microsoft Chad, either. Funny. Does he always pose as a MS employee or rep?

 

[Revolsin]

Any information on how the consoles are doing so far this month?

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Yeah, I didn't know about the history of Microsoft Chad, either. Funny. Does he always pose as a MS employee or rep?

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Yeah, that was basically his gimmick.

 

[donny2112]

The mid-gen data we have from GfK via Famitsu's White Paper report shows the Wii with a sizeable lead over the PS3/360 in Europe.

2008 LTD in Europe
Wii - 13.97M
360 - 7.82M
PS3 - 6.86M
2009 LTD in Europe
Wii - 19.67M
PS3 - 10.76M
360 - 10.70M
2010 LTD in Europe
Wii - 24.00M
PS3 - 13.70M
360 - 13.40M
Countries Tracked: UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Denmark, Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden and Finland
https://web.archive.org/web/20110809195049/http://homepage3.nifty.com/TAKU64/diary/diary_9.htm
https://web.archive.org/web/20110601225737/http://homepage3.nifty.com/TAKU64/diary/diary.htm


The late-gen data we have from Nintendo's internal estimates still shows the Wii leading other 7th-gen consoles in Europe.

2011 LTD in Europe
Wii - 29.5M
PS3 - 19.6M
360 - 17.4M
2012 LTD in Europe
Wii - 31.5M
PS3 - 23.9M
360 - 20.4M
http://www./forum/showthread.php?t=426128
http://www./forum/showthread.php?t=510874


We also have an interesting tidbit from NPD and GfK. It's clear that the PS3/360 had surges at the end of the console generation. The final standings would have been extremely close in Europe. While it is possible that they both overtook the Wii in the end, we simply do not have enough evidence to support the claims that they did.

2015 H1 Install Base in North America and Western Europe.
PS3/360 - 123M
Wii - 76M
http://www./forum/showthread.php?t=1104839

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Thank you so much! (^_^)

 

[Samanosuke Akechi]

So Microsoft and Sony both had a Chad? Lol

Chad warden was the best.

 

[slavesnyder]

ZhugeEX
by the way: thanks to to you and your wizzard team for wasting your precious time and keeping this place tidy.

 

[Deleted member 5727]

^ Yeah, it's very impressive, how well this place is run. And it's been great to see the resurgence of sales threads.

 

[Nightwing]

Have we got any winner yet for Nov?

 

[Deleted member 2785]

^ Yeah, it's very impressive, how well this place is run. And it's been great to see the resurgence of sales threads.

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The ignore functionality of the site has made a world of difference for me, that's for sure.

 

[Deleted member 5727]

Have we got any winner yet for Nov?

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Yes, PS4 first; Xbox second; Switch third.

 

[ethomaz]

Yes, PS4 first; Xbox second; Switch third.

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I do believe he is talking about the prediction winner.

 

[Deleted member 5727]

I do believe he is talking about the prediction winner.

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Oh, sorry. Never mind.

 

[Liabe Brave]

We also have an interesting tidbit from NPD and GfK. It's clear that the PS3/360 had surges at the end of the console generation. The final standings would have been extremely close in Europe. While it is possible that they both overtook the Wii in the end, we simply do not have enough evidence to support the claims that they did.

Click to shrink...

Thanks for the data! Just one small note to add, at Gamescom in 2013 Sony said that PS3 had "market leadership in the majority of countries" in Europe. That doesn't mean it was higher than Wii overall, of course, but it's also suggestive of a very strong showing during the latter part of the gen, given how far behind it had been in earlier years.

 

[Elandyll]

Wow. Been supper busy with the familly this week end, and it seems I missed all the fun lol.

Hope Donny can post the ranking soon so we can have even a vague idea of, what's up", even if we have wide ranges already.

Also thanks to the Era team for keeping things tight. Can't say I'm overly surprised with the end result of what was really happening hehe ;)

 

[Noobie]

Has prediction winner declared yet? i think i missed that post

 

[Deleted member 5727]

Has prediction winner declared yet? i think i missed that post

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Nope. Not yet.

 

[donny2112]

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 5 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NPD Prediction Results - November 2017

Units

1. Imad issa
2. Tarrin
3. zephyrcian
4. jeromeSF
5. chroeser


Points

     November 2017                   Overall 2017 Top (9/11)
01.  Imad issa              ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
02.  zephyrcian             ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
03.  Tarrin                 ---.--   Majiebeast             ---.--
04.  jeromeSF               ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
05.  chroeser               ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
06.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
07.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
09.                         ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
11.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
13.                         ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
14.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
15.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
16.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
18.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
19.                         ---.--   freeradical            ---.--
20.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
22.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
23.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
24.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
25.                         ---.--   Nocturnal              ---.--
26.                         ---.--   HighJump               ---.--
27.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
29.                         ---.--   Gulfwarvet             ---.--
30.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
31.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
32.                         ---.--   wilmbreak              ---.--
33.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
34.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
35.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
36.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
37.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
38.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
39.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
40.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
41.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
42.                         ---.--   sirronoh               ---.--
43.                         ---.--   Gaspard                ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Graphics Horse         ---.--
45.                         ---.--   WillySJ3               ---.--
46.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
47.                         ---.--   Andy                   ---.--
48.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
49.                         ---.--   harrisk954             ---.--
50.                         ---.--   ThatRandomCliff        ---.--

Congratulations, Imad issa! :D


#1 Predictor for month:

[NSW] 850k
[PS4] 1650k
[XB1] 1350k

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[freeradical]

Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, the rankings are just a counter, so if two users are tied, it is not reflected in these results. To prevent backing out the numbers, only the monthly results for the top 5 predictors are shown. Annual results are still full results, though.

NPD Prediction Results - November 2017

Units

1. Imad issa
2. Tarrin
3. zephyrcian
4. jeromeSF
5. chroeser


Points

     November 2017                   Overall 2017 Top (9/11)
01.  Imad issa              ---.--   Primethius             ---.--
02.  zephyrcian             ---.--   allan-bh               ---.--
03.  Tarrin                 ---.--   Majiebeast             ---.--
04.  jeromeSF               ---.--   noobie                 ---.--
05.  chroeser               ---.--   ethomaz                ---.--
06.                         ---.--   theprodigy             ---.--
07.                         ---.--   Sterok                 ---.--
08.                         ---.--   Elandyll               ---.--
09.                         ---.--   CorporateClown         ---.--
10.                         ---.--   Welfare                ---.--
11.                         ---.--   Bitch Pudding          ---.--
12.                         ---.--   Sangetsu-II            ---.--
13.                         ---.--   Kill3r7                ---.--
14.                         ---.--   mejin                  ---.--
15.                         ---.--   jayu26                 ---.--
16.                         ---.--   pitseleh               ---.--
17.                         ---.--   Hammer24               ---.--
18.                         ---.--   Darth Smurf X          ---.--
19.                         ---.--   freeradical            ---.--
20.                         ---.--   donny2112              ---.--
21.                         ---.--   Rymuth                 ---.--
22.                         ---.--   Pachter                ---.--
23.                         ---.--   archnemesis            ---.--
24.                         ---.--   KillerMan91            ---.--
25.                         ---.--   Nocturnal              ---.--
26.                         ---.--   HighJump               ---.--
27.                         ---.--   Shizza                 ---.--
28.                         ---.--   Fdkn                   ---.--
29.                         ---.--   Gulfwarvet             ---.--
30.                         ---.--   Stanng243              ---.--
31.                         ---.--   1993dan1               ---.--
32.                         ---.--   wilmbreak              ---.--
33.                         ---.--   jroc74                 ---.--
34.                         ---.--   astrogamer             ---.--
35.                         ---.--   Trust me, I'm a PhD    ---.--
36.                         ---.--   Kayant                 ---.--
37.                         ---.--   Zedark                 ---.--
38.                         ---.--   Chobel                 ---.--
39.                         ---.--   kyser73                ---.--
40.                         ---.--   Shock32                ---.--
41.                         ---.--   slavesnyder            ---.--
42.                         ---.--   sirronoh               ---.--
43.                         ---.--   Gaspard                ---.--
44.                         ---.--   Graphics Horse         ---.--
45.                         ---.--   WillySJ3               ---.--
46.                         ---.--   vivekTO                ---.--
47.                         ---.--   Andy                   ---.--
48.                         ---.--   Opt1kon_               ---.--
49.                         ---.--   harrisk954             ---.--
50.                         ---.--   ThatRandomCliff        ---.--

Congratulations, Imad issa! :D


#1 Predictor for month:

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Thanks Donny. Congrats Imad issa

 

[Soony Xbone Uhh]

[NSW] 850k
[PS4] 1650k
[XB1] 1350k

Click to shrink...

[NSW] 1000K
[PS4] 1600K
[XB1] 1400K

Click to shrink...

[NSW] 800K
[PS4] 1800K
[XB1] 1600K

Click to shrink...

[NSW] 900K
[PS4] 1600K
[XB1] 1200K

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Let's see if I will score better this time:

[PS4] 1480K
[XB1] 1350K
[NSW] 950K

(I overshot Switch last month, so I'm a little bit more conservative this time, PS4 faced shortages and X1S disappointed over the course of the year)

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​

Wow all top 4 predictions were made on page 1 I'm impressed.
Also it's not worth it and possible to get better estimates this time with some false/true math it seems.

PS4: >1.582M (Best month ever)
XB1: >1.296M (Best November ever) <1.511M (Best month ever)

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Switch: >750K < 900K

Yea, was a good month. Both PS4 and Xbox one had their best months ever. Xbox one x sold over 65% higher than PS4 pro did, in just over a week doing over 430k units is impressive as I see it, given the price point. Their simple, direct messaging around what the system offers appears pretty effective so far. And switch being up over 2.5x from October without any promotions to drive that is also strong indicators of demand and growth

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[donny2112]

Since not all the results are public, this is a "Just for Fun" ranking. The way it works is that the #1 predictor for the month using the actual results is assumed to be 100% correct, and everyone else is measured accordingly. These results are not official and not used in the annual rankings. Since the real results can't be shown, these are a substitute to be used "Just for Fun." (^_^)

ResetERA "Just for Fun" Prediction Results - November 2017
Note: Uses #1 predictor as "truth" and measures everyone else relative to them.


1. Imad issa - 0
2. Tarrin - 250,000
2. jeromeSF - 250,000
4. chroeser - 270,000
5. Charamiwa - 300,000
5. Majiebeast - 300,000
5. MrCafecito - 300,000
5. kowalski - 300,000
9. KillerMan91 - 350,000
9. janusfilmsfan - 350,000
11. Limabean01 - 370,000
12. brykuhn91 - 380,000
13. Phantom Thief - 390,000
13. Rymuth - 390,000
13. Sangetsu-II - 390,000
16. Mr_F_Snowman - 393,000
17. Elandyll - 400,000
17. Noobie - 400,000
17. Yunsen - 400,000
20. 5Twist - 450,000
20. HighJump - 450,000
20. John Bender - 450,000
20. OG_Thrills - 450,000
20. Peek-a-boo! - 450,000
20. Pooroomoo - 450,000
20. Primethius - 450,000
20. Wandu - 450,000
20. gcwy - 450,000
20. pld - 450,000
20. secondgen - 450,000
20. zephyrcian - 450,000
32. Welfare - 471,000
33. Stanng243 - 490,000
34. CosmicBolt - 500,000
34. Frobary - 500,000
34. Kill3r7 - 500,000
34. Saint-14 - 500,000
34. Tmecha - 500,000
34. dean_rcg - 500,000
34. noyram23 - 500,000
34. rahzel - 500,000
42. Gulfwarvet - 514,000
42. Hyaku Shiki - 514,000
44. Anshelm - 550,000
44. Nightwing - 550,000
44. momshotdad - 550,000
47. cakely - 564,000
48. Yjynx - 569,000
49. TheTruthofKayle - 570,000
50. RexNovis - 590,000
50. Samanosuke Akechi - 590,000
52. Darth Smurf X - 600,000
52. DeuceGamer - 600,000
52. Kyser73 - 600,000
52. Pachter - 600,000
52. Shambalakan - 600,000
52. ethomaz - 600,000
52. imt558 - 600,000
52. jroc74 - 600,000
60. Kaveri - 610,000
61. Bitch Pudding - 618,000
62. chobel - 630,000
63. byDoS - 640,000
64. James - 650,000
64. Martl - 650,000
64. Meelow - 650,000
64. Omnislayer - 650,000
64. Paronth - 650,000
64. Soony Xbone Uhh - 650,000
64. mejin - 650,000
64. rzmunch - 650,000
64. score01 - 650,000
73. Corporate Clown - 665,000
74. allan-bh - 670,000
75. BoxManLocke - 674,000
76. Hindle - 675,000
77. Hammer24 - 683,000
78. ChillSpencer - 695,000
79. Dwebble - 700,000
79. Lelouch0612 - 700,000
81. Trixie Mattel - 740,000
82. BioDigital Jazzman - 750,000
82. RoarOfTheEarth - 750,000
82. Zedark - 750,000
82. dxspace - 750,000
82. v_iHuGi - 750,000
87. jayu26 - 761,000
88. SaleemMalik - 780,000
89. Gryflet - 790,000
90. Expy - 795,000
91. Deadass - 800,000
91. Jade1962 - 800,000
91. Nocturnal - 800,000
91. bottledfox - 800,000
95. slavesnyder - 801,000
96. Fdkn - 805,000
97. archnemesis - 820,000
98. TuMekeNZ - 840,000
99. ASleepingMonkey - 845,000
100. Mikey1123 - 850,000
100. Perd Hapley - 850,000
100. ScopehJ - 850,000
100. VirtuaRacer - 850,000
100. Xavillin - 850,000
100. pokΘfan - 850,000
106. Astrogamer - 860,000
107. skittzo0413 - 875,000
108. LordOcidax - 880,000
109. Fularu - 900,000
110. donny2112 - 915,000
111. DanR93 - 925,000
111. Silencerx98 - 925,000
113. Apal_ytos - 930,000
114. panda-zebra - 940,000
115. Andy - 949,000
116. CSSD - 950,000
116. ConfusedGamer - 950,000
116. Damian Mahadevan - 950,000
116. FaceHugger - 950,000
116. Hedon - 950,000
116. Metalgearmiyamoto - 950,000
116. Mystic Vivi - 950,000
116. Robo - 950,000
116. Slarvax - 950,000
116. Sterok - 950,000
116. shimon - 950,000
116. useyourloaf - 950,000
128. gueras - 970,000
129. WestEgg - 1,000,000
129. WillySJ3 - 1,000,000
131. RailWays - 1,050,000
131. Ryng Manuel Tolu - 1,050,000
133. pitseleh - 1,095,000
134. HistoricalAnomaly - 1,100,000
134. Noppie - 1,100,000
134. orochi91 - 1,100,000
134. phantomx - 1,100,000
138. AlphaCookie - 1,150,000
138. Jraphics Horse - 1,150,000
138. Revolsin - 1,150,000
138. bonesawisready5 - 1,150,000
138. rubidium - 1,150,000
143. Abstrusity - 1,200,000
143. Aokiji - 1,200,000
143. freeradical - 1,200,000
146. UmbriaPauly - 1,211,000
147. wilmbreak - 1,246,000
148. mrfusticle - 1,250,000
149. DisturbedSwan - 1,350,000
149. Pablo Mesa - 1,350,000
151. Ge0force - 1,400,000
151. Jasong7777 - 1,400,000
151. KcebEnyaw - 1,400,000
154. valentine - 1,470,000
155. JJConrad - 1,500,000
156. Toni Codrea - 1,550,000
157. erlim - 1,750,000

 

[Soony Xbone Uhh]

donny2112 why are tarrin and zeph changed in the units and points placement, when they do both have Switch #3, Xbox One #2 and Ps4, #1?

Is that an error, or do i miss something?

 

[Silencerx98]

Well, shit, I did terrible for November. The PS4 and XB1 performed way better than I expected while Switch underperformed.

 

[Imad issa]

Wow i got # 1. Thanks everyone for all your congratulations.

 

[freeradical]

Lol. 2nd for October, 143rd for November.
I think Nov 2017 is my worst placing ever. I doubted the UHD twins. C'Est la vie!

 

[Penny Royal]

Bah!

Bloody Switch underperforming. I mean I lowballed PS4 too, but Switch is where I suffered most.

 

[Majiebeast]

Number 5 over estimated Switch the rest was pretty much on point.

 

[slavesnyder]

Wow i got # 1. Thanks everyone for all your congratulations.

Click to shrink...

good job, imad issa!

i am terribly disappointed with my result and my trainee will have to suffer for that.

 

[Deleted member 4976]

Congrats Imad Issa.

And damnit, Switch bodied me over. Overestimated it's performance way too much.

 

[v_iHuGi]

Wow i got # 1. Thanks everyone for all your congratulations.

Click to shrink...

Man you were on point brother congrats.

 

[RexNovis]

Should've stuck with my initial more optimistic predictions for XB1 and PS4. Oh well. Thanks Donny! Congrats to Imad!

 

[Sangetsu-II]

Should've went lower on Switch and XB1 but #13 ain't so bad, thanks Benji for guiding us.

 

[v_iHuGi]

I did terrible because I overestimate Switch and Xbox.

Also wow @ 300K gap between Ps4 and Xbox on a Console Launch month.

 

[Elandyll]

Congrats to Issa!

Man... If I hadn't revised my Switch estimate upward (from 850 to 1050) I would have placed much better.

I blame you Switch optimists :p

Edit: yeah that 300k gap doesn't look like much compared to a 1.6 or even 1.3m, but that's a solid regular month (or 2 weak months) worth of sales.

 

[N.Domixis]

I did terrible because I overestimate Switch and Xbox.

Also wow @ 300K gap between Ps4 and Xbox on a Console Launch month.

Click to shrink...

What are the the numbers?

 

[Sangetsu-II]

What are the the numbers?

Click to shrink...

- PS4 > 1.582M
- XB1 > 1.296M [XB1 X > 430K]
- Switch > 800K

Wonder what would of the numbers looked like this year for XB1 S if the X hadn't release.

 

[Rainrir]

The ignore functionality of the site has made a world of difference for me, that's for sure.

Click to shrink...

You need to share this list with me some time.

 

[Fdkn]

I'm tanking hard because I stopped following my own instincts, same as last month.

Lesson learned.

he probably won't read this.

Click to shrink...

lmao

 

[slavesnyder]

You need to share this list with me some time.

Click to shrink...

he probably won't read this.

 

[imt558]

What are the the numbers?

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Well, PS4 numbers are doubled compared to NPD Nov. 2014 ( something little more than 800k ).

 

[Soony Xbone Uhh]

Number 5 over estimated Switch the rest was pretty much on point.

Click to shrink...

Do you mean the Number 2 predictor? Number 5 wasn't that spot on with Ps4 at all...

he probably won't read this.

Click to shrink...

Get Rekt! And he even won't read your post thanks to the glorious and great working ignore function here.

 

[Deleted member 4976]

I wonder which prediction I got so right that I'm still #1 for the year. I feel I've been not doing so hot for most of the recent ones.

 

[Rainrir]

he probably won't read this.

Click to shrink...

Oh so I am on the list? Say it ain't so MatPiscatella

 

[Wandu]

Dang, Switch and XB1 really hurt me this month as far as predictions. I guess I could say the same for PS4 lol.

 

[Nightwing]

Great I way overestimate switch and Underestimate PS4

 

[chroeser]

Hey,
that went well. 5th on my second try.
Congrats to the winner and onto the next month.

 

[v_iHuGi]

What are the the numbers?

Click to shrink...

Imad :
[NSW] 850k
[PS4] 1650k
[XB1] 1350k

 

[WillySJ3]

My prediction was so bad. Congrats to Imad!!

 

[kowalski]

Not bad for me...lol