Status
Not open for further replies.

Deader2818

Member
Oct 25, 2017
714
New Jersey
In my area One X sales have really slowed down this month so far.

Gamestop must think the Pubg bundle will do well since I have over 40 units with more otw.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
With how low Bethesda's new single player releases charted this year, I'm sure these Switch results are great for them.

How do you figure? The comparison is a bit strange unless the Switch version of Wolfenstein 2 for example pulls a 100k.

It's not as if Skyrim was a struggling IP where 100k physical sales are some sort of saving grace. That's a drop in the bucket for Skyrim.
 
OP
OP
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
That would mean around 100k for Splatoon 2 for November. It is too low. That means that Splatoon 2 sold 359k between August and September. That's 120k per month. It might have in August, but it's impossible for September ans October given its ranking.

This hypothesis suggests a collapse of Splatoon 2 attach rate in November to 12.5% after being near 40% for the 3 previous months. That's unlikely.

It's not unlikely when it's actually a fact.
 

GamerEra

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,096
We obviously don't know what the digital ratio is on the Switch. That said we don't know if it's lagging behind or if it's even with the other systems.

We do know that the normal digital rate is 40% and since that's all we have to go on, that's what I'm basing it on. That said, it's also why I said probably since we don't have any hard figures to go by.
I would think that digital sales on the Switch is fairly low considering the low onboard storage.
 

NewGuy

Member
Nov 23, 2017
151
I'm sure there's much more detailed financial reasons that we don't see, but one reason is probably competition. Enterbrain/Famitsu have been providing weekly numbers of some type since there were ever numbers to provide. If MC wanted to get a foothold in the tracking in Japan, they couldn't start off with charging for every bit of information. Now Enterbrain/Famitsu and MC also charge for more detailed analysis, used game sales, sales past the top 30/20 each week and past top 100 each year (love the Top 1000 charts out of Japan!), so it's not like they give everything for free. What they do give is great for weekly analysis, though.

One of the financial reasons is probably the cost of getting the data from a geographic region the size of Japan vs. one the size of the U.S. It probably costs more for NPD to get the data from store systems of a much wider area than Japan has. In the same vein, getting sales data for Europe as a whole would be more difficult than Japan, too.

In the end, I think competition is probably the biggest single reason, though. There really isn't an alternative to NPD for tracking U.S. sales. As such, they have great leverage over what they choose to provide or not provide.


Stupid inertia!

Actually it's a much simpler explanation. We don't "own" the data in the US, the participating publishers and retailers do. Therefore It can't be shared unless authorized.

Back in the day NPD would release tons of data including hw and sw figures. I'd do that again tomorrow if I could. Shrug.

We don't have a good representative sample of albino Saharan tribesman in our consumer panel. I'm beginning to get concerned about this.

huh thx for the info guys, guess all the better for us in the end. less arguing over numbers and all.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
I would think that digital sales on the Switch is fairly low considering the low onboard storage.

Very possible...we do know that a lot of indie games have sold good/best on Switch. While I realize that's not exactly the same, the retail releases have routinely jumped to the top spot and held it for extended periods, showing that they most be doing fairly well also. In the end we truly just don't know so I used the only figure we have with the caveat that it was probably close.
 

John Harker

Knows things...
Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,490
Santa Destroy
That would mean around 100k for Splatoon 2 for November. It is too low. That means that Splatoon 2 sold 359k between August and September. That's 120k per month. It might have in August, but it's impossible for September ans October given its ranking.

This hypothesis suggests a collapse of Splatoon 2 attach rate in November to 12.5% after being near 40% for the 3 previous months. That's unlikely.

I challenge your "impossible" - with fact!
 

LiquidSolid

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,731
Very possible...we do know that a lot of indie games have sold good/best on Switch. While I realize that's not exactly the same, the retail releases have routinely jumped to the top spot and held it for extended periods, showing that they most be doing fairly well also. In the end we truly just don't know so I used the only figure we have with the caveat that it was probably close.
I don't think there's any good reasons to think it's "probably" close though. 40% is the average digital percentage on PS4 and Xbox, not Switch. You don't just assume Switch is the same just because we don't know how well AAA games are selling on it, just like we didn't assume digital adoption on PS4 and Xbox was the same as Steam when we didn't know any better. PS4 and XB1 digital adoption didn't just happen overnight, it took years to get where they are now. So you would assume it would take Nintendo years to catch up, instead of starting from the same point as their competitors, who have put FAR more time and effort into their digital stores.

As for indies doing well on Switch, similar things were said about the PS4 in its launch year, when digital adoption was tiny compared to what it is now. It's great for those indie devs but isn't a sign of the wider market.
 

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,553
I don't think there's any good reasons to think it's "probably" close though. 40% is the average digital percentage on PS4 and Xbox, not Switch. You don't just assume Switch is the same just because we don't know how well AAA games are selling on it, just like we didn't assume digital adoption on PS4 and Xbox was the same as Steam when we didn't know any better. PS4 and XB1 digital adoption didn't just happen overnight, it took years to get where they are now. So you would assume it would take Nintendo years to catch up, instead of starting from the same point as their competitors, who have put FAR more time and effort into their digital stores.

As for indies doing well on Switch, similar things were said about the PS4 in its launch year, when digital adoption was tiny compared to what it is now. It's great for those indie devs but isn't a sign of the wider market.
Anecdotally and personally, while I've always been a physical buyer, I much prefer to digitally purchase games on my Switch than I do on my Pro or Wii U. Convenience is a big part of the Switch for me, so I don't like to be Switching carts all the time, especially when I'm away from home. Whereas on my purely home consoles, I still prefer to buy a game physically because getting up to Switch the disc isn't much of a hassle. I wonder if others feel the same, and if they do, that could easily lead to a higher digital rate on Switch, with the main issue being the low default storage space.
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
That PS4 Star Wars bundle is kicking some butt on Amazon right now. Switch and PS4 are both really, really healthy, which is great to see.
 

Prine

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
15,724
Yea, was a good month.
Both PS4 and Xbox one had their best months ever. Xbox one x sold over 65% higher than PS4 pro did, in just over a week doing over 430k units is impressive as I see it, given the price point. Their simple, direct messaging around what the system offers appears pretty effective so far. And switch being up over 2.5x from October without any promotions to drive that is also strong indicators of demand and growth
Nice ! So i was correct about X vs Pro launch numbers, very good number for a $500 refresh. PUBG is killing it atm wonder what impact it has in Dec.
 

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
This month ranking will probabily be PS4/NSW super close for the first place, XB1 not too far under both, but the gap between second-third place will be bigger than first-second place.

I really don't know between PS4 and NSW... The heart tell me Switch but the head PS4. :P
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,872
How do you figure? The comparison is a bit strange unless the Switch version of Wolfenstein 2 for example pulls a 100k.

It's not as if Skyrim was a struggling IP where 100k physical sales are some sort of saving grace. That's a drop in the bucket for Skyrim.

They are selling it for $60 with no mod support, it will continue to sell as the price goes down
 
Oct 28, 2017
1,228
No it's not. It being a $100 cheaper than the PS4 was at launch is irrelevant when it was still $100 more expensive than the competition and didn't have any deals, bundles, or cheaper games to help it. Yes, it was it's first holiday but so was November 2014 for the PS4, excluding it's launch. The Switch's sales are not disappointing in this context and other folk have said as much


Certainly not impossible, considering how big Spider-Man is and the fact that the game actually looks awesome
Excluding launch.... lol. So 2014 was not the PS4's first holiday. And no it's still not similar at al. 100$ make a huge difference for Byers as we have seen this month's result. Other people saying it does not make it true.
 

KtSlime

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,910
Tokyo
Actually it's a much simpler explanation. We don't "own" the data in the US, the participating publishers and retailers do. Therefore It can't be shared unless authorized.

Back in the day NPD would release tons of data including hw and sw figures. I'd do that again tomorrow if I could. Shrug.

We don't have a good representative sample of albino Saharan tribesman in our consumer panel. I'm beginning to get concerned about this.

Does NPD not collect the numbers in the same way that Enterbrain and Media Create do by inquiring retailers and using an algorithm to calculate the sales? If NPD collects the numbers wouldn't NPD own the data? Or does NPD generally get the numbers directly from the publishers?
 

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
Oct 27, 2017
2,431
We'd have about 25k years before any effects from the center of our galaxy could reach us.

Having all the atmosphere drift away would probably be a bigger concern. The oceans would slosh right out of their beds, and most of the Earth would probably just sort of lose cohesion.

Hmm, air pressure comes from gravity. Would we instantly lose that as well?

If the oceans are sloshing away after gravity loss, I'm afraid that sweet sweet atmosphere will be long gone.
 

DeuceGamer

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,476
I don't think there's any good reasons to think it's "probably" close though. 40% is the average digital percentage on PS4 and Xbox, not Switch. You don't just assume Switch is the same just because we don't know how well AAA games are selling on it, just like we didn't assume digital adoption on PS4 and Xbox was the same as Steam when we didn't know any better. PS4 and XB1 digital adoption didn't just happen overnight, it took years to get where they are now. So you would assume it would take Nintendo years to catch up, instead of starting from the same point as their competitors, who have put FAR more time and effort into their digital stores.

As for indies doing well on Switch, similar things were said about the PS4 in its launch year, when digital adoption was tiny compared to what it is now. It's great for those indie devs but isn't a sign of the wider market.

Feel free to provide any evidence that shows what the digital adoption rate on Switch is, or that it's significantly lower than PS4/X1. Until we have an accurate figure we can only go by comparable consoles. While you apparently believe we can't assume it has a similar digital adoption rate I don't see any evidence to believe we should assume it's lower.

Edit: also to be clear, I believe it is possible that it is lower, which is why I included the caveat probably close
 
Last edited:

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,553
Excluding launch.... lol. So 2014 was not the PS4's first holiday. And no it's still not similar at al. 100$ make a huge difference for Byers as we have seen this month's result. Other people saying it does not make it true.
When those people are analysts who are knowledgeable about sales trends and what they mean, yes, it does make it true.
 

LiquidSolid

Member
Oct 26, 2017
4,731
Feel free to provide any evidence that shows what the digital adoption rate on Switch is, or that it's significantly lower than PS4/X1. Until we have an accurate figure we can only go by comparable consoles. While you apparently believe we can't assume it has a similar digital adoption rate I don't see any evidence to believe we should assume it's lower.

Edit: also to be clear, I believe it is possible that it is lower, which is why I included the caveat probably close
No, that's not how it works. You're the one making assertions that the Switch's digital adoption rate is in line with the PS4 and XB1's, so you have to provide the evidence to back that up, otherwise you're basically just making shit up. Unless you have evidence, it makes far more sense to assume the Switch's digital adoption is in line with previous Nintendo systems like the 3DS and Wii U, than competing systems with far more established and promoted online networks.
 

Sander VF

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
26,416
Tbilisi, Georgia
It did pretty well for what it is. Far from the tent pole release for switch for November it was predicted to be though. Mario is carrying the holiday season on his back.
Was it widely predicted to be THE tentpole though? I remember people claiming it would do well, but was it touted as some sort of a system seller?

I'm sure some people would claim that of course.

Also, based on these estimates , did DOOM do well enough for itself to justify the game's of it's nature on the system? I mean Skyrim is an enduring property so it not doing well would be a damper on third party prospects in general, but DOOM is far more interesting to me.

As far as I know DOOM has amassed only a couple of million sales across all platforms while heavily discounted (under 3 million? Correct me if I'm wrong) so I imagine it doesn't need much more than a few hundred thousands at full price worldwide to justify the late port.
 

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,399
Feel free to provide any evidence that shows what the digital adoption rate on Switch is, or that it's significantly lower than PS4/X1. Until we have an accurate figure we can only go by comparable consoles. While you apparently believe we can't assume it has a similar digital adoption rate I don't see any evidence to believe we should assume it's lower.

Edit: also to be clear, I believe it is possible that it is lower, which is why I included the caveat probably close

Nintendos software split between physical and digital in UK and Spain:
screenshot2017-11-15amljrz.png

Don't see why US would be vastly different.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.