Yeah, that's a good point. Do you think it's a boost that Sony is happy with; possibly meeting or exceeding expectations? Good sign for the future?
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October 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, November 13th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yeah, that's a good point. Do you think it's a boost that Sony is happy with; possibly meeting or exceeding expectations? Good sign for the future?
Last gen xbox was very dominant over playstation in the USA. This gen not only did Sony drastically close the gap but by the end of the gen I think they will be 7/8m up on xbox. That's a hell of a turnaround. MS dropped the ball the last few years of the 360. Their first party output was lacklustre. This entire gen it was lacklustre and I don't see that changing in the next 3 years. That's the guts of 10 years losing good will leading into next gen. Meanwhile the PlayStation is the complete opposite. If anything I can see the gap widening next gen. The momentum is on Sonys side.
There are different customer segments and their loyalty towards a brand differs enormously. Saying "there's no brand loyalty" (as in: at all) is as wrong as saying "MS already lost the next gen race because Sony is in the lead of the current one.
Very true. I see Xbox doing much better in the US next gen. Maybe not beat Sony, but much better than this gen turned out.
All of their new studio acquisitions, continued BC support, gamepass, and everything else they've done recently, is setting them up nicely. Sony will need to be on their A game and not mess up the big reveal.
No, its just correct observation of the market.
We had utter PS2 dominance replaced with 360 wrecking the PS3. We had the Wii selling incredibly to the Wii U cratering. We've had huge success of the SNES and NES replaced with the PS1 rolling over the N64.
The US market is up for anyones grabs literally every single cycle. It's not even debatable.
If you want to argue semantics about there being a core group of people invested in certain platform holders that's certainly true. But in regards to the larger scale market the US will simply back which ever platform appeals to them the most any given generation
Edit - this response is worded harsher than I intended it to be. Sorry for that. I won't edit out the way I said it though to remain transparent
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I agree that there doesn't seem to be much brand loyalty, but I do think you could somewhat predict next gen based on why one console won over the other in the past and general trends. Third party exclusives won't be as big if a deciding factor as they were with the PS2 nor will the online infrastructure be as they were with the 360. I also see the world being much more connected than they were the generations before that. With Fifa selling in the US like it does, or CoD in Japan.
As nice as that would be, I just see those moves as only guaranteeing that Xbox has a future and place in the gaming industry. The fruits of those efforts are going to take some time, especially the studio acquisitions, and they were not acted on early enough to ensure that the Xbox Scarlet will have the weight to stand up to what will be a thunderous PS5 launch. Not to the extent that it has a good chance of overtaking its market share in NA.
Just going by exclusives alone I think God of War PS5, Horizon 2, Uncharted 5, Spider-Man 2, etc. will sell way more consoles than Halo, Forza Horizon 5, Fable, etc. as first party games will always be a deciding factor in ANY market when these consoles play all the major third party releases.
Then theres also the fact that millions more gamers in the US have invested in the PS4 over the Xbox One and PS5 having PS4 BC will also be another deciding factor tipping in PlayStation´s favor.
I have played both my PS and Xbox platforms a lot and enjoyed them both, but there´s no way the brands are on even grounds heading into next gen since it is so heavily in PlayStation´s favor.
I feel nearly everyone expected the Xbox 360 successor to continue the domination of the 360. I don't expect Sony to make a colossal mess of their brand like Microsoft did, but I'm with benji on this one.
The average day to day consumer will move with the tide.
At the same time, you should always be careful with predictions based on status quo.
A big reason why GAF/ERA predictions tend to not hold water is because they always assume that the next generation will be the same as a current one, but multiplied by 5.
As Benji and others have pointed out over and over, the success of a console in one gen does not guarantee it'll have the same success in the next. PS2, the worlds most successful console in history, couldn't save the PS3 from being utterly destroyed by 360 in North America by a 2-1 margin if memory serves.
I don't know about the overall predictions of GAF, but dismissing them based on the past/trends is doing the exact same thing. Dismissing them based on the assumption of predictions of this hivemind always being wrong is weird to me. Not saying one console will clearly win, but I think it is definitely something an analyst worth their salt should be able to predict with decent accuracy.
Edit: I'd love to see a poll on next generation predictions to see if the predictions of GAF/ERA always being wrong, are right.
Microsoft seems to go the subscription way with a few AAA(Halo, Gears, Forza, Fable and the Initiative game), some GAAS game like Sea of thieves or State of Decay and some AA title for the Gamepass services. And it seems they will invest more than Sony on the cloud side maybe it will be a disruption of the market. And one day they will maybe try to use the augmented reality investment they have.
For the moment, the cloud strategy of Sony is not well known. They have a good single player AAA strategy but they aren't well placed in GAAS game. They have PS plus and PS Now. Will they do change the subscription policy? Merge the two services?
Cool! MS multi studio purchase tax write off incoming. IRS alerted.
This is key I think.
In politics, you have a group of people that regardless of any and all facts, crimes, whatever, will absolutely vote party line, unwavering. It's similar enough with extreme fans of gaming brands. When Xbox One launched, I remember looking at it @ $499, no game, and thinking .. ehhh. But it indeed had a very diehard group of people who lined up to get it day one, despite the higher price, lower specs, etc. Then from Jan '14+, it began to crater out. The core Xbox fanbase was not enough to take it to a mainstream success at that price point with the market realities of the competition. I think Microsoft, and indeed most of us who follow such things, seriously overestimated Xbox's brand value in the US.
We honestly should have known, because it's almost a mirror image of how Sony fumbled the PS3 launch in overall 'whoopsie daisy' factor. Maybe a few million diehards are out there that will buy a literal box of dirt with their favored brand label on it, but beyond that, you have to have a good product at a good price with good marketing/consumer facing communication. X1 OG was a mediocre product at a bad price and with horrible optics/communication. This was poorly timed, as PS4 launched as a good product, with good pricing, and great optics/marketing(aided further by the stronger 1st party ending Gen7 2011+). Going back to Gen 7, 360 launched with a good product (marred by some flaws like no HDMI, RROD on early models), decent price, good marketing. PS3, delayed, was a good product (almost amazingly overbuilt, Wifi, HDMI, BDROM, etc), at a bad price, and with borderline disastrous marketing/communication.
Nobody can say that so much loyalty will carry over that the general consumer will choose PS5 over Scarlett, or vice versa, on just brand consideration. That's for diehard fans who typically aren't swayed by logic to begin with. Whoever comes out with the most compelling mix of product, pricing, and message, will win.
I will say, that as much as it disappointed me that Sony chose to make PSN a paid service, that it was actually kind of brilliantly (if not accidentally so in this respect) timed. Sony running into such an early lead, then extended over the years, meant that for all but the most casual (not an insult) PS4 owners would have to be invested in the service to play online MP, etc, and accumulating PS+ games, digital libraries, and so on. This is obviously a FAR bigger factor than it ever was in Gen7, just going by both published and leaked numbers from the companies themselves and other insiders and NPD figures. If both PS5 and Scarlett are, as expected, fully BC with the previous gen, and libraries and online subs carry over seamlessly, I do think that will reduce people leaving MS for Sony, or leaving Sony for MS. Just as it makes it far less likely for someone to add a second console than before, when it means so much investment : console, peripherals, games, AND another $50-$60/year AND not carrying your library with you. Towards the latter half of Gen7, it was easy for me as a 360/PC gamer to grab a PS3 slim, and start getting games, because having to pay for another sub wasn't a factor. I definitely wouldn't have been as interested if it meant $60 mandatory PS+.
The competition really has made MS far far FAR better now though. Remember some of the absolute bullcrap from the bad old days when they thought they were unstoppable? Want to watch Youtube? F you give me money. Want to watch Netflix? F you give me money. The paywalls were just asinine. One remains : the free-to-play paywall. As much as they've improved, that's a blind spot. PS4, Fortnite and such, jump in with your $199 bundle, and your Fortnite-loving kid can have a blast with no additional sub/charges. XB? F you give me money. Given their overall moves, I think this is only a matter of time, hopefully.
I do think PS5/Scarlett will start slower than Gen8 though, and perhaps never hit the same numbers. When Gen8 came, it felt like it was drastically needed. Budget PC gaming blew the consoles away, the ~512MB of memory was just a beating on developers, load times were ass, UI kept getting worse, sub-720p, sub-30fps games were disgustingly common, it just felt like Gen7 was so far past its prime even by 2010 that fresh blood was needed. PS4/X1, especially with the refresh models available for those so inclined, aren't suffering much playing any competently developed games, and support is far steadier, especially compared to the dark Kinect days of 360.
Now? Besides the sometimes disgusting bottlenecks from the Jaguar CPU performance (most notable in open world games) the systems are pretty well rounded, and crucially aren't particularly limited by memory or GPU performance. The leap between even an OG PS4 and a hypothetical 12TF 8C Ryzen 16GB Ram PS5 will mostly mean about the same games, but better a bit better resolution, framerate, and textures. Take someone sitting 8' back from a 55" TV, and a game at 1080p vs ~1440p vs 4K doesn't look tremendously different. I think HDMI 2.1+ and variable refresh TVs will be where it truly shines through. Being able to play at unlocked framerates bouncing between say 55-120fps at 4K will be mindblowing for people that haven't experienced a good Gysnc or Freesync setup. Hell, I dumped my OLED 4K 60hz as a PC gaming display like a hot potato once I got a 34" 1440p Ultrawide Gysnc. The experience was just miles better, despite the resolution gap. I think it's pretty much a lock that PS5/Scarlett will support VRR completely, but of course a sticking point will be how few people will have VRR capable displays for quite a while. The new HDMI spec isn't really available yet, but should be getting started pretty widely by 2020. It's a wicked upgrade over the limitations of current HDMI.
Yes, something that I know people understand is numerical systems like what the fuck was Wii U and Xbox One after their predecessors, just confuses the market. People will know PS5 is PlayStation 5 and will buy it because of nostalgia.
That is really a non-response to everything I pointed out. I gave actual reasons of why the PS5 will more than likely keep Sony´s lead in the US .
Yes I know, and you gave great reasons. It all sounds very logical. And I agree about your point that PS5 having PS4 BC will help it greatly in moving over its current install base, insuring Sony keeps it's lead and builds upon it.
Both MS and Sony have there core base that will buy there system .
When it comes to mass market it going to come down to price and marketing .
Who ever get the lead early only will keep it once the price difference not to big and the have hype going for them.
When it comes to mass market it going to come down to price and marketing .
Who ever get the lead early only will keep it once the price difference not to big and the have hype going for them.
PS plus is pulling in mega money and recent reports suggest PS NOW is pulling in way more revenue then gamepass. I personally think they'll keep pushing them separately.
Most of PS launch are weak, the first year and a half of PlayStation console are most of the time not the best year for the console. I hope this time they are better prepared.
I agree with many things you said but I disagree with PS3 was a great console. Lost more than 200 dollars per console selling the console at 599 dollars, no way a console like this is good. I can add to the crime a complicated architecture in multiplatform era. Consequences continue to hit Sony, so difficult to emulate it will probably not been backward compatible for PS5 and need Sony to keep PS3 motherboard for PSNow.
Imo It will be a tough fight in US between the two but if Sony don't fuck up with the price, release date and backward compatibility it will be difficult for Microsoft to take marketshare out of US, Canada, UK, Mexico maybe Australia and New Zealand.
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PS5 will have great 1st party software, especially looking at this generation, but I dunno where you're getting a "thunderous PS5 launch"
barely any consoles have had great software launches. Can't say I see that changing, but it would nice
I factored 'Good' basically on the respects of : competitive performance, good feature set for 2006 (HDMI already, Bluray, Wifi without having to buy $80+ dongle, etc, no notable reliability concerns akin to RROD, though YLOD eventually became something further down the line). I screwed up initially with my 360 by getting the 'core' or whatever it was. Ended up having to buy the hard drive and Wifi for ~$200, costing me as much as a PS3, and STILL didn't have HDMI :( Then it RROD'd on me multiple times, got used to the good old coffin. They finally gave me a black Elite that lasted for years though. I think it still works other than the DVD drive lol. The PS3 Cell architecture certainly was less than ideal for developer efficiency as well!
PS3 consumer-facing Pricing was absolutely bad, as I noted. These metrics of product, price, and marketing are purely from a consumer standpoint. From Sony and MS's business side of things, the PS3 and 360 were both disastrous financially for years. RROD cost MS 1.15 billion dollars. With a B, coming straight off of losing 4.2 billion dollars on OG Xbox, for a total of 5.35 billion dollars lost on those two factors, then R&D/marketing/infrastructure costs on 360 2005-2007 added conservatively another ~1.3 billion (murky financial filings make this more difficult to discern, as the shell game with regards to hiding risk from investors was a real factor, and still is). Sony's combo of late, overpriced, expensive to produce PS3 cost them 4.7 billion in losses by 2009, and huge sales and lowering production costs only broke them closer to even by the end of the generation.
Anyway, to make it more specific and add some details, 2005-2006 era, A to F grade :
PS3 Price to Consumer : F ($599 was terrible, and the $499 one was not widely available)
PS3 Price to Produce : F----- (LOL)
PS3 Product (is it any good? spec/feature/etc) : B+ (as noted, great feature set)
PS3 Marketing/Consumer Relations : F (get a second job! batarang! delays! ugh)
360 Price to Consumer : C- ($399 for the decent one, still limited in features, $299 model was ass)
360 Price to Produce : D- (could have been slightly higher rated, but RROD was very costly)
360 Product : B (fairly good, pretty basic in features, though a bit unreliable and 'core' model was a joke)
360 Marketing/Consumer Relations : B ("look! we're not Sony! Product is on-time and not $600!)
:)
Edit : For funsies, adding my ratings on X1/PS4 2013 period
PS4 Price to Consumer : B+ ($399 for strongest console until Pro/X)
PS4 Price to Produce : B+ (IIRC not sold at any loss, profits possible almost immediately from game/accessory/sub)
PS4 Product : A- (strongest console, hell it's still fine ~5 years on)
PS4 Marketing/Consumer Relations : A ("look! we're not MS! $399!)
X1 Price to Consumer : D- ($499 cost of entry for weaker console thanks to mandatory Kinect)
X1 Price to Produce : D (The Kinect, as well as the ESRAM/DDR3 combo resulting in larger APU die vs PS4/GDDR5, was .. not great financially)
X1 Product : B- (good quality at least, acceptable performance but notably a tier down GPU wise, undesirable Kinect)
X1 Marketing/Consumer Relations : F- (arrogance mixed with confusion mixed with incompetence)
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LOL :)
I probably would have rated them both the same, but tbh the 360 kind of launched super quietly. It was a different world back then, OG Xbox was kind of a hidden gem kind of thing while everyone was playing PS2s. Sales and availability, and especially marketing/word of mouth was kind of mediocre until Gears of War in holiday 2006 started blowing up, well timed to really stick it against PS3.
PS4 v X1 OTOH, launched simultaneously in the social media era, and became a cultural, famous/infamous 'thing' for 2013. Hell, sitcoms, comedians, sports stars, everybody it felt like was talking about it or debating it. MS grew fifteen left feet and proceeded to try to eat them, while Sony pretty much cruised right ahead and came out looking like a boss.
Can't see anyone else posting this, so I might as well.
Two factors that that might mean people will switch platforms less readily between generations:
1) Backwards compatibility
2) PSN/GwG subscriptions.
Personally I used to buy every console, but this gen I've not bothered with Xbox because a) not enough points of differentiation and b) I don't want to pay 2 monthly charges for online. Now that I've got a massive library on PS4 (both bought and via PSN) it'd take a helluva lot for me to shift. I can't believe I'm the only one thinking like this.
Two factors that that might mean people will switch platforms less readily between generations:
1) Backwards compatibility
2) PSN/GwG subscriptions.
Personally I used to buy every console, but this gen I've not bothered with Xbox because a) not enough points of differentiation and b) I don't want to pay 2 monthly charges for online. Now that I've got a massive library on PS4 (both bought and via PSN) it'd take a helluva lot for me to shift. I can't believe I'm the only one thinking like this.
I honestly dont see how you can see the moves Microsoft have been making, look at the performance of the Xbox one in the US and come to the conclusion that Microsoft isnt very likely to be US market leader next generation.
Sony are playing a very global game and they were very fortunate with a lot of factors that wont have the same impact next gen. I very much doubt we will see the same amount of Playstation dominance next gen if ever.
If Microsoft could compete with disasterous launch messaging, higher price, an inferior product in terms of power and less software support (both first and third party), what happens when they get their ducks in a row?
Sorry benji, i understand you have access to far more information that I do, but I still find it incredibly hard to believe that there was not a core group of gamers that Microsoft did their best to cater to in the early years of this gen. I would also argue that Microsoft stayed in the race by being so aggressive with their price promotions in peak hoilday seasons - practically giving the thing away to pull in more casual audiences.
Right now the main reason to buy a PS5 is a hope in the continued success of the PS4. There is nothing that Sony is doing to generate exictement in the brand and honestly, it seems quite the opposite.
Brand exictement doesnt always translate into sales but even a casual observer can see that Xbox has a lot of buzz around it, Microsoft are investing heavily in the brand and they are supporting their hardware with gamer centric services and features that are improving all the time.
Next gen is anyones game, but its the hardcore taste makers that set the inital trajectory of the console gen. Im just not convinced Sony has enough surprises in store to tempt away players from the competition nor retain its existing player base. Migrating digital libraries will matter alot next gen but its far from the only factor for the hardcore gamer.
Sony are playing a very global game and they were very fortunate with a lot of factors that wont have the same impact next gen. I very much doubt we will see the same amount of Playstation dominance next gen if ever.
If Microsoft could compete with disasterous launch messaging, higher price, an inferior product in terms of power and less software support (both first and third party), what happens when they get their ducks in a row?
Sorry benji, i understand you have access to far more information that I do, but I still find it incredibly hard to believe that there was not a core group of gamers that Microsoft did their best to cater to in the early years of this gen. I would also argue that Microsoft stayed in the race by being so aggressive with their price promotions in peak hoilday seasons - practically giving the thing away to pull in more casual audiences.
Right now the main reason to buy a PS5 is a hope in the continued success of the PS4. There is nothing that Sony is doing to generate exictement in the brand and honestly, it seems quite the opposite.
Brand exictement doesnt always translate into sales but even a casual observer can see that Xbox has a lot of buzz around it, Microsoft are investing heavily in the brand and they are supporting their hardware with gamer centric services and features that are improving all the time.
Next gen is anyones game, but its the hardcore taste makers that set the inital trajectory of the console gen. Im just not convinced Sony has enough surprises in store to tempt away players from the competition nor retain its existing player base. Migrating digital libraries will matter alot next gen but its far from the only factor for the hardcore gamer.
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In the US there's no brand loyalty, no, because the 3 brands "work" the market.
Worldwide there's plenty of markets that are pretty much Sony/Nintendo, and those won't change so easily.
So I see competition on the NPD, like there was at the beginning of the new gen, but WW will be much harder unless someone really fucks it up
Sony doesn't need surprises to retain players, it's the other way around. People will stay with Sony unless MS can lure them away, so unless they fuck it up not much will change WW.
NPD will be different though, some ex-360 owners will come back for sure
Worldwide there's plenty of markets that are pretty much Sony/Nintendo, and those won't change so easily.
So I see competition on the NPD, like there was at the beginning of the new gen, but WW will be much harder unless someone really fucks it up
Sony doesn't need surprises to retain players, it's the other way around. People will stay with Sony unless MS can lure them away, so unless they fuck it up not much will change WW.
NPD will be different though, some ex-360 owners will come back for sure
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This whole post make no sense .
Sony has sold more home consoles than any company and you are saying there are fortunate.
If you want to say that is how it is was it not the same for MS last gen when Sony fuck up .
All this talk about buzz and MS is still getting out sold every month and Sony is also investing in there Brand.
Sony might not lead in US ( WW is another matter)next gen but nothing you say here make a good argument for why they might not.
America is Microsoft's best market, if Sony can outsell them without dropping price or having promotions then they should do it. If Microsoft starts outselling them or when the generation is coming to and end they can be mote aggressive with price but for now they are still winning and to cut price so they win more doesn't help them.
Thing is, most people that played God of War, Horizon Zero Dawn, Spiderman, Bloodborne etc will want to play God of War 2, Spiderman 2, Horizon Zero Dawn 2, hopefully Bloodborne 2 , etc
And if the upcoming Days Gone, Ghost of Tsushima and Death Stranding turn out as good as they look the same with their sequels.
For me Sony's greatest achievement this gen is their new IP's (or reboots in the case of GoW). It's amazing how many first installements they got right, and thats their greatest asset for next gen.
Spiderman alone is gonna sell not only millions of PS4s but millions of PS5s...it's just crazy
And if the upcoming Days Gone, Ghost of Tsushima and Death Stranding turn out as good as they look the same with their sequels.
For me Sony's greatest achievement this gen is their new IP's (or reboots in the case of GoW). It's amazing how many first installements they got right, and thats their greatest asset for next gen.
Spiderman alone is gonna sell not only millions of PS4s but millions of PS5s...it's just crazy
On the flip side they were 30 million ahead last gen and now they are behind, and as others have said they could have easily been behind much more if Sony had gone that route.
Just because you sold more consoles does not mean you were not fortunate. Being fortunate in business is not a slur, it's something everyone wants.
Microsoft is still getting outsold every month because there is only so much you can make up lost ground. The more important factor to take into account is while still being outsold, they are increasing in sales yoy. That suggests that their messaging and product offering are working.
You are free to disagree but in my eyes Sony is not doing enough to invest in their brand for next gen. Funding more WWS games will not be enough.
I will say one area Sony does have an edge over Microsoft is in Marketing. They do tend to be far more creative in their advertising. It will be interesting to see how much of a factor that is in the run up to next gens launch.
we need a thread about next gen predictions.
it worked out so well on the old forum.
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As I said, Sony doesn't need to inves in their "Brand". All it has to do is release sequels to this gen's games.
Do you have a PS4? If so, don't you want to play GOW2 or Spiderman 2 or HZD2?
Creating great games is not doing enough? It seems to work for Nintendo. Even Microsoft have finally realised that content is king, and started buying up studios. Gamers will go where the best new games are. Somehow Microsoft forgot that under Mattrick.
I want to say someone in the know (Mat Piscatella?) has said this before. Even though you see it high on those "why did you choose your gaming platform" polls that pop up early into a generation, there isn't much brand loyalty.
MS is buying a bunch of studios that could position themselves better, but aren't a number of those studios more catered to the PC crowd with their games? I think there were at least 2 or 3 that did those kind of isometric RPGs and i thought those had a stronger audience on PC than console, so if they keep doing what they know, while a worthwhile acquisition, they may not translate into console sales.
Digital library preservation may also be something that locks people into an ecosystem as that becomes a bigger and bigger thing, however as cross-progression becomes more and more common, it's going to make even that less and less meaningful for the people who mostly just play Fortnite or the next big thing.
Other than release record-breaking hit after record-breaking hit you mean?
Sony have got between a year to 18 months to get their house in order when it comes to services prior to the start of PS5. They've already started the process with PSNow, crossplay beta, updating PSN etc.
NA will be hard fought for both platforms, but it's way more important to MS than Sony in terms of global market share, even if the geocentrism of this & US-based forums want to deny that and continue
Regarding YoY sales increases - you do remember how bad 2017 was for Xbox, right? Saying that continuing to lose market share while increasing sales from a low base in your main market that represents at least 60% of your global sales is a sign of things improving is optimistic to say the least.
I certainly wish I'd had some of guys as a manager when I worked in sales tho - it would be made the bad months a lot easier.
GOW2 won't be ready in 2020. Neither will Spiderman 2. I honestly doubt even HZD2 will be.
Sony cannot afford a repeat of this generation where it took arguably almost two years for some compelling first party software.
Even 2013 era Microsoft understood the importance of hitting the ground running with launch sofrware that sold the capabilities of the console. Now with several new studios, a BC program that will be iterated on for next gen, gamepass and EA access, Microsoft is going to be in its strongest position it's ever been at Scarlett's launch.
Counting on unannounced sequels for PS4 games to sell PS5s to the point of market dominance is a foolhardy endeavour. Sony is gonna need way more than that.