I don't know, there doesn't seem to be that longing for a PS5 just yet. I think releasing it in 2019 is a mistake.
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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
- Start date
There doesn't need to be 'longing'. When Sony releases the PS5, millions will buy it, because it is the PS5. They just need to show a powerful console at a decent price with a couple of cool exclusives, plus enhanced PS4 BC with a bunch of popular PS4 titles advertised as 'BEST ON PS5!'. This will be even more the case if they have a year without competition.
I can't wait for next-Gen. Decided to skip the Pro, so next-Gen is going to be big step for me.
There was a pretty healthy interest in Cyberpunk 2077, as more games that feel next-gen come into the picture, the "want" for next-gen consoles will only get stronger.
Can you imagine what the Xbox One X could have cost had it launched the same time as the PS4 Pro?
I believe that the only reason we might not see these consoles in 2019 is the cost factor.
No it can mean both ways.
- If they hide a lower 2019 as you think then it indeed could mean a 2019 release date.
- But if they actually want to hide higher 2019 profits (so a decrease in 2020) then PS5 could launch in 2020
OK, but if PS5 did come in FY20 instead then how can the OP figures for it be so relatively high? Or for that matter why are figures shown in FY20 at all if that will be the launch FY? Also why would Sony want to try and hide future higher profits from those investors they are trying to snag?
Not matter which way I look at this only one thing makes sense to me.
Because they want to hide the release date. And profits as a whole look good enough even without a slight 2019 increase.
They can estimate their profits of course but between now and March 2020 is a very long time away to be predicting what profits will end up being. A lot could happen in that time.
Who are they hiding the release date from as there are really only two realistic dates leaving aside force majeure. 2019 or 2020. Just investors and general public? The number one obvious entity you would want to hide it from if you could (MS in this case) are actually the one that probably already knows better than anyone outside Sony so for me I don't see the point in trying to "hide" stuff like this in this day and age.
Investment meetings are where they aren't allowed to lie, by law.
However, release dates of unannounced products are hidden as standard practice, because nothing hurts current hardware sales as much as announcing the successor. The logic is, the profit predictions in the chart are assuming that the PS5 release date isn't leaked early. If they had announced the release date via the chart, then the forecast would go DOWN. There will be any number of people who could buy a PS4, who would instead wait for a PS5.
Yes, many already are waiting. But any official acknowledgement of PS5 being released would immediately increase that number of lost sales. And you really do NOT want a profit prediction, to end up lowing your final profits. That is basically self sabotage and is silly.
Right, so the best course of action would be not even mention anything about dates.
I get this but it seems a bit old fashioned? PS4 sales/profits increased after Pro leaked early, even against Sony's own predictions and forecast didn't they? The market has changed. Like I said there are only two possible release years (no one expects a specific date just year) so they aren't really hiding anything anyway. 50/50 at worst.
I'll quote myself from early in this thread.
And I even forgot to tag the successful PS4 launch.idk, mate...
Does anyone else doubt a fall 2020 launch?
Consoles don't release in US predidential election years. The last console to do that was...
(get ready for it)...
The Wii U (2012)!
And that console was a failure for many reasons of course, but it sure didn't help being release in that time.
So that leaves us to Fall 2019 launch, or a Fall 2021 launch, IMO.
And 2021 is too far away, so... 2019.
I don't think they would release in any other season other than fall, either.
Consoles don't release in US predidential election years. The last console to do that was...
(get ready for it)...
The Wii U (2012)!
And that console was a failure for many reasons of course, but it sure didn't help being release in that time.
So that leaves us to Fall 2019 launch, or a Fall 2021 launch, IMO.
And 2021 is too far away, so... 2019.
I don't think they would release in any other season other than fall, either.
They are hiding the release year because they have no reason to announce it. Hardware rollouts is a lot of moving parts, and it is too important to end up announcing earlier than planned.
Sony gave profit forecasts because that is what is expected from investor meetings. That is what businesses need to do for their shareholders. They didn't do it to please gamers. Sony will tell you want they want to tell you, when they want to tell you, if you are a customer. If you want more details, you would have to be an employee or major shareholder.
Here I shall present my evidence of how the PS3/PS4 2013 launch compares with PS4/PS5 2019 launch.
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Game and network services Segment in upper right corner. Network services will increase with ATSC 3.0 deployment and the Sony 8K TVs sales, which will have ATSC 3.0 tuners, and are likely in parallel with Sony projections for cord cutters and PlayStation gamers.
My understanding is this chart does not indicate P&L for anything, my mentioning that was in error. It does not indicate investment in a new PS5 nor in 8K TVs. It appears to accurately track gaming and UHD/4K IPTV streaming uptake. PS4 gaming decreases and 4K uptake remains flat till late 2020 and then ramps up (Industry projections for ATSC 3.0) which is why Sony 8K TVs with ATSC 3.0 tuners start to sell Q2 2020. UHD 1080P + HDR media will dominate in at least the short term.
ATSC 3.0 antenna TV will be 1080P or less resolution with 4K almost always requiring an internet streaming service. This explains all PS4s with the ability to support 1080P UHD DRM but not 4K.
Sony comments expect pre 2020 revenues to "crouch down" then post 2020 revenues to "jump up"....that's all and the reasoning is not explained. You have to look at other consumer market predictors to understand why.
Sony is positioned to support ATSC 3.0 (likely a DVR) and UHD 1080P with the PS4s as that should be a market disrupter. A Cheaper PS4/PS5 should be out by then and more casual games too. Glassless 8K TV UHD 3D media is synergistic with PSVR1 and PSVR2 with PSVR1 the 1080P or less UHD 3D and PSVR2 the 4K 3D. Again 1080P UHD is going to dominate in at least the short term.
Sony still needs to be competitive and 4K/eye UHD 3D media is coming just as PCs will next support 4K/eye VR so new PCs and a new PS4/PS5 with HDMI 2.1 are coming to support media on 8K TVs and PCs. When is what most are discussing. You can take the position that UHD 1080P is going to dominate so why rush and a PS5 is a 2021 release or you can say Sony needs a 8K UHD Blu-ray player before CES 2020 and 4K/eye VR and 8K TV UHD 3D are synergistic.
The earliest a 7nm PS4/PS5 could release is Holiday 2018 with Holiday 2019 more likely, before or by holiday 2020 nearly 100% and 2021 only if Sony is getting out of VR and High end media.
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OP
OP
- PS5 Reveal: E3 2019 or PSX 2019 (December 3rd is PS' 25th anniversary)
- PS5 release: Spring 2020. Why? Early adopter crowd + releasing before the new Xbox does(Theorically. We could have a big surprise, tho) + letting some of the 1st party titles cook for some extra time compared to a 2019 launch + taking the opportunity as the market leader instead of going head-to-head against whatever Xbox is cooking(As I said, this ain't no Kinect this time around... pls do not something like that Xbox). You guys should also consider that Cyberpunk 2077 could be releasing during that time, if Witcher 3's history is anything to go by. Why not release the console when this game is being released and show "how much better it runs/looks" than any of the other console on the market? This is the most highly anticipated game right now... well, TLoU2 is up there, too. You get the picture.
- E3 2020: Reveal the titles for the rest of the year + the next year; PS5 can do enough from Spring to late 2020 with just a few PS5 titles and PS4 BC.
- Late 2020: This is probably when the next Xbox is launching, in november. Third parties are here now, for both. Now it's christmas season and the people who didn't get a PS5 in spring are probably getting it now...or an Xbox... I guess nobody can tell this one right now.
Hardware wise, is there really something that a late 2020 machine could offer over a spring 2020 machine? Price? I guess a factory problem could screw it up.
Software wise, I could really say the same, but I agree that 5 months of development could make a significant difference, so I'd agree with your points. The thing is, if they were originally planning a 2019 launch, they should have a couple of big titles by then, so they should be ready for Spring 2020, too. Anyway, they could reveal the rest of the titles at their own PSX conference and show more at E3 or not show anything about them(or teasers) and then, at E3, show the footage.
Idk guys, I'm starting to extend my #team2019 craziness to Xbox as well. Is it possible that we get Scarlett in Fall 2019?
Anyone have any ideas about the cut-off date for ruling out 2019? I'm actually surprised it hasn't been ruled already TBH. Sony (and maybe even Microsoft?) must be pulling their hair out if they still can't decide launch timing.
VX1.
The problem with revealing it at E3 for a same year release is GDC. Everything will leak from there for sure.
VX1.
The problem with revealing it at E3 for a same year release is GDC. Everything will leak from there for sure.
I see people think 2019 is unrealistic because the gen is still going strong and the tech isn't ready, but with the Pro and X revisions we've seen the industry shift towards iPhone-esque iterative releases, so even if the launch consoles miss some tech-jumps, they will rectify that 2-3 years later with a new version. As both are backwards compatible and all future hardware is likely to be backwards compatible to push the move to digital and GaaS, I honestly don't think either MS or Sony will hold off any later than 2020, and 2019 is a possibility.
The PS5 will be more like a PS4 Mk3.
The PS5 will be more like a PS4 Mk3.
OP
OP
As Benji said, it's on the software and the same should apply to the new Xbox... the thing is, I think we know even less about Microsoft Studios' projects. Can you imagine if they have something like freaking Minecraft 2 at launch? LOL... I didn't consider that until I typed it down right now but that would be pretty big.
About the hardware, we should consider the rumor about Navi being a PS5 only thing. If that is the case, why would MS wait until 2020? What if the CPU is AMD but the GPU is Nvidia? We are not realistically considering any of these, which is odd. They did something similar with the OG Xbox packing an Intel CPU and an Nvidia GPU. That said, I think they're going full-AMD anyway.
I think it depends on Microsoft and if they give details about the next Xbox. We will have to wait and see until the Xbox X0 thing this november. If Microsoft make a move, I could totally see Sony responding or vice versa.
Mark Cerny specifically said that what you are suggesting (PS5 being just an upgraded PS4 Pro) will NOT be the case,and he said it on the day the PS4 Pro was announced.
Sony is still very much focused on a new generation,and that also forces MS to do the same.
I see Sony forcing MS's hand to Spring 2020 but not earlier. Doubly so if MS is missing out on next-gen versions of RDR2, Cyberpunk etc.
I've quoted Mark Cerny multiple times about multiple things. Falls on deaf ears!
As I already posted prior, most people agree that the hardware is ready for 2019. The issue is that the more 3rd parties stay with cross-gen titles, the more reason for Sony/MS to focus on good exclusive 1st party games to fill the gap.
You are thinking like a Third Party Studio. But platform holders have no intention to slow the adoption of new hardware. They will have MORE incentive to start off with a big splash with PS5/Scarlet exclusive first party games on release, exactly because all the third parties would make cross gen games.
1st Parties are meant to do what Third Parties don't do. It is all about balancing the offering of the platform.
And to make good exclusive first party games for next gen, means more time before console release.
Seriously. A vastly more powerful CPU and way more team to go with the bigger GPU is not a small thing.
3 rumors I'm sure is just that Sony is probably ahead with their plan ..so and is working more (at the moment) on that ......AMD CEO ...Lisa Su said alrrady in a interview they're working with both Microsoft and Sony on 'specific secret sauce' for theirs console
Of course,thats why i said i expect it to happen before E3...at PS meeting...probably Feb/March...same like PS4.
I find it funny that MS sort of kick-started the serious next-gen conversation at E3 when Phil mentioned the next Xbox and showed some games the definitely looked out there (e.g Halo Infinite), yet here we are 3 months later speculating on a PS5 in 2019 and next Xbox in 2020. I wonder if they regret mentioning that.
Sony's quiet approach seems to be effective. It's as if their silence alone builds hype. Heck, just look at what cancelling PSX has done.
Sony's quiet approach seems to be effective. It's as if their silence alone builds hype. Heck, just look at what cancelling PSX has done.
This is kind of a tangent. But if Xbox and PlayStation keep leapfrogging eachother with release dates doesn't that make who is most powerful less meaningful? Of course the newer console is more powerful, it's not a big deal. It always comes down to software
Here I shall present my evidence of how the PS3/PS4 2013 launch compares with PS4/PS5 2019 launch.
...I'm not sure some of those dates will pan out, but still. What in the FUCK.
So, a PS5 fall 2019/spring 2020 launch would force MS' hand? Or y'all think MS ready?
Both Sony and MS launching at the same time would be better for 3rd party.
Both Sony and MS launching at the same time would be better for 3rd party.
It was never meaningful. PS3 is crazy powerful, but most developers coudn't use it to its full potential. Power is only a thing discussed seriously on game forums, in the end it is always about the price, and the quality of the games.
I think it is a combination of numerous factors including price, power, and games. You can't lump it all into one or two things.
What is the point of releasing Scarlet early, when MS is even more behind than Sony on the games front?
We have a different thread mentioning how MS is allowing their new studios and acquisitions to grow, but I doubt any of them would be even close to making a full game for release in 2019.
I mean, MS can release Scarlet with hardly any games in 2019... But since they are already the underdog, why would they want to handicap themselves further? It can be done, it would just be monumentally stupid on MS's part.
You think? I don't think that most of what we call "hardcore gamer" are happy that Sony could go on the market faster than Ms ..because it could mean a less powerful base console ....then we have those who love sales ..they are in hype for sure for who start the gen first.... because sales wise... this usually mean to win the sales during the gen (but there are proof that don't always it works like this either )
They can have cross gen versions of their currently announced exclusives and third party games as well which would allow them to get the lead early in market and mindshare.
Well but Ms released the X just 1 years ago.....I think they will wait a year after the PS5 ...but will talk about scarlet at XO
People tend to forget that Ms release their games on PC too...the impact on their exclusive on a new gen is infinitely less dangerous than an PS5 esclusive title with a new low initial userbase
Their plan on releasing games on PC was just this and with title like FH4 is coming together for them
That kind of console would get about as much mindshare as the PS4Pro/1X; which is, 1 in 5 consoles sold.
Frankly I have disagreed with that kind of thinking in ERA so often, that I don't want to type it out anymore. The benefit of "releasing first" just isn't justified, if you end up with a bad launch. We have entire graveyards of past failed game consoles to learn the lesson from.
I don't see the problem. People were buying PS4s like crazy even back when it had a very dry lineup of games. They knew the games would eventually arrive, and they did. It doesn't matter if TLOU2 is also playable on PS4, that doesn't matter to someone buying a PS5, which in the first year or so is the hardcore early adopter.
PS4 Pro/Xbox One X have a small share of sales because they are positioned as upgraded current gen consoles, that's all. PS5 would be a new generation box.
I joked before, but folks are definitely right about Xbox not having software that could be ready for a 2019 launch. They need Halo Infinite at the very least, as well as having something to show for the new Fable and some other studios.
BC plans change the equation. Having BC means 3rd parties are going to struggle to justify making PS5/Scarlet exclusives that can't run on PS4/XB1. BC makes exclusives that can only be played on new hardware, even more vital to adoption rates.