Last Gen was 7 years. We just got a mid console upgrade last year with PS4 Pro and Xbox One X just few weeks ago. I see this Gen lasting another 2-3 years.
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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification
- Thread starter zomgbbqftw
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Well in 2 years that will be 2019. So that will be 6 years for both Sony and Microsoft if they release during fall of that year.
Which is funny because we're almost at December, basically 2018 is just around the corner.
To get hyped it "should" be announced "next" year sometime otherwise it's 7 years again.
Neither Sony or Microsoft have any incentive to kick start the next generation just yet, the latter can't because XBOX was just released.
And the former is selling so well that they might not feel the need to release it ASAP nor do they have to, so many games coming still.
I think we will never see massive CPU upgrades on a Pro model. It's usually much more difficult to increase the frame rate for a game after release, because, depending on the game, you have to make lots of optimisations or even rewrite the engine. Increasing stuff like resolution on the other hand is very easy. That's why I hope that they will use a very strong CPU for the base model, and that devs will target 60fps with PS4 Pro resolutions from the beginning.
If you have Ryzen + 12 TFLOPS, you could run 30fps current-gen PS4 Pro games at 60fps, and still have ~4 TFLOPS left for improvements, and ~ 8 TFLOPS for games that already run at 60fps on PS4 Pro. If you put all this into better lighting/shaders, and couple that with 4K textures thanks to the increased RAM size, you will have incredible looking games.
And don't forget, the vast majority of PS4 owners are still just using a base PS4, there are very few PS4 Pro owners. If I had to guess based on comments from Jim Ryan ("1 out of 5 PS4s sold is a Pro since it's launch"), I would estimate that there are maybe a few million PS4 Pros out there. And of those, many are still connected to a 1080p TV. So most people will compare the PS5 to the base PS4, which will be a very huge jump for them.
It's a bit unclear if they mean capacity (Gb) or throughput (Gbps) which is mentioned below. But it wouldn's surprise me.
I don't think that they will. Wider bus is expensive and is better used on a "PS5Pro" down the line.
PS4 has 176 Gbps bandwidth which means that it's using 5,5 Gbps GDDR5, Pro is at 217,6 and 6,8 Gbps. These are not even top G5 speeds so going to both G6 and 384 bus seems unlikely.
G6 at 16 Gbps (seems like a safe bet if this is where it'll start; we may actually see even faster G6 in PS5, 18 or maybe even 20 Gbps) and 256 bit bus would give PS5 512 Gbps of bandwidth which is more than twice that of Pro and almost 3x from OG PS4 which isn't so bad considering that memory bandwidth doesn't increase as fast as other things in computing.
It is highly unlikely that Sony will use different memory in the same console generation unless their APIs for PS5 will be significantly higher level than these of PS4.
No
They'll have nice CPUs for consoles, especially compared to the current CPUs, but nothing that powerful.
No? desktop vs mobile and it's clocked higher as well (the 8350K).
It might get interesting if games start using more cores though next gen.
Given the much higher success this generation has had for Sony compared to the PS3, and given the mid-generation update, I would advise Sony to target a holiday 2021 launch, and aim for high specs. By delaying the launch of PS5 it can give Sony access to better technology, and I would advise a $500 initial price and even absorb a small loss per console. The late date builds pent-up demand, and the robust specifications would build great excitement for the console and allow Sony to start off with strong.
I recommend this for a few reasons. I think the adoption of PS4 Pro will be higher within 2 years and people who buy it will want more time with their system before upgrading. The consensus also seems to be that PS4 was underpowered at its release, and that people will have a harder time distinguishing between this generation and the next without a substantial leap. So by waiting longer the generational leap can be more pronounced, and this pent-up demand by waiting can help consumers stomach a $500 asking price which helps provide that needed difference in power.
I recommend this for a few reasons. I think the adoption of PS4 Pro will be higher within 2 years and people who buy it will want more time with their system before upgrading. The consensus also seems to be that PS4 was underpowered at its release, and that people will have a harder time distinguishing between this generation and the next without a substantial leap. So by waiting longer the generational leap can be more pronounced, and this pent-up demand by waiting can help consumers stomach a $500 asking price which helps provide that needed difference in power.
I enjoy that this thread has stayed on the front page for all of Resetera's lifespan thus far. I've already made one comment on where Sony will likely go , I'll now bring up the current software situation.
- Sony's first / second party agreements have them sitting with Naughty Dog , Sucker Punch, Insomniac , Sony San Diego and Sony Santa Monica in the US. Sony Bend, Quantic Dream, Media Molecule and Guerilla games in Europe. In Japan everything is lumped together under what used to be called SCEJ but if you split it up there seems to be 3-4 studios working on games at any given time over there.
ND is currently working on Last of Us Part Two , a game which is probably 18 months away from completion. They do have a second game on the go for the last few years but that team also just shipped Uncharted Lost Legacy , so in other words the uncharted team just started on a brand new game... so that means it'll probably be 36 -48 months before that comes out unless it's another single player U4 spinoff. Put another way, their next game will be a PS5 title, one that will likely come out after a LOU2 PS5 remaster/upgrade. 2021 seems a likely date for that sucker which gels with my earlier prediction of a 2020 ps5 launch.
Sucker Punch only just finally unveiled Ghosts of Tsushima , something they've had in the works since at least the release of Infamous First Light the stand alone prequel to second son. That pegs Tsushima as a project that might have close to 36 months under it's belt so far , I imagine it's also a 2019 game which means Sucker Punch won't have something else ready for quite some time after that. So , again, we have PS5 being the likely target for anything post ghosts of tsushima.
Insomniac is hard at work on Spider-man , certainly it was only unveiled over the last year (I think the PS4 pro event was the first real announcement on that one?) but insomniacs previous big release was the ratchet and clank remaster which seems to have been worked on in tandem with Sunset overdrive. I have to guess the entire studio has been working on Spiderman since at least the shipment of R&C remastered. That means 18 months , of course if you go since the release of Sunset Overdrive, a decent chunk of the studio has been working on Spiderman since 2015 which is closer to 36 months. Spiderman is due to ship in 2018 and I imagine work on a sequel will commence fairly quickly... a sequel that will probably be a PS5 title in 2021.
Sony San diego seems to work on nothing outside of MLB the show , so unless that agreement dries up or people stop buying it well.. you'll probably keep seeing that one every year.
Sony Santa monica is gearing up to ship god of war Beard dad edition next year and won't likely make something else for 4 years after that title ships. 2022 is most likely there.
Bluepoint Partnership - these guys are some the best remaster peeps in the biz and currently are hard at work on the 2018 remake of Shadow of the Colossus. They will most likely move onto some other remaster/rebuild as soon as it ships which could mean a 2020 game from them as well.
Sony Bend is sadly hard at work on the "what if the if the sons of anarchy was set in the world of the walking dead but played like a super serious take on Dead Rising" game otherwise known as "days gone". Not to bash the devs to hard , it might be a cool game , either way it's due in 2018 so it stands to reason they won't have another release for 3-4 years which pegs 2021/22 for the next thing.
Quantic Dream are of course finishing up Detroit , the latest from David Cage. It's probably shipping in 2018 as well and Cage's games take 4 + years just as anyone else do these days so that means 2022 for probably a PS5 game.
media molecule is of course STILL trying to make DREAMS into something that can be "played" instead of simply a neat tool , probably adding extensive VR support too. Dreams might finally come out next year but who knows how long these guys will spend on their next game ? It'll definitely be a PS5 title that's for sure.
So that leaves Guerilla for the European arm , Horizon just shipped this year and more recently it's expansion pack popped out last week. So that side of the team is likely taking a break and gearing up to get to work on Horizon Second Day or whatever , a project that will likely eat up 4-5 years , 3-4 with some heavy asset re-use. Either way it'll be 2022 before we see anything from that side of the studio. As for the killzone team ? Well, Shadowfall was the last thing they shipped. Even counting multiplayer support and such , that side of GG was likely starting work on something else sometime in 2014 , a good chunk of the shadowfall team likely ended up working on Horizon but some of them have probably been doing something else. Whatever it is stands the best chance out of anything I've mentioned so far of being a 2020 launch game for the PS5.
Now , sony Japan ....
Polyphony Digital JUST shipped GT sport which is meant to be an evolving service , probably 4 years until we get a full blown GT8 or even a GT sport 2(which will likely be all of sports finished assets combined with more traditional single player stuff) which still pegs it at 2021.
The Knack team just shipped Knack 2 this past summer so even a sequel to that is probably 3-4 years away (so 2020/2021)
Whoever makes everyones golf/hotshots golf seems to pump that stuff out at fairly arbitrary times , the newest one felt like it took years to actually release but it's also kind of a service game so ...
Gravity Rush 1/2 team - not the biggest team and GR2 shipped just this year in the spring after a lengthy development schedule. It's possibly they could have something ready for 2020 I suppose.
From Software partnership - so far this has lead to just 2 games - Demon Souls and Bloodborne. As BB was a 2015 title it stands to reason that a future partnership game could aim to be a PS5 launch title in 2020. From also clearly developed DS3 and BB in tandem as they both use the same engine and even share a few assets
So, with all of that out of the way a schedule emerges -
2018 - God of War 4 (5?) , Spiderman, Detroit, Days Gone, MLB 2018, SOTC remake , Dreams ?
2019 - Last of Us Part 2 , Ghosts of Tsushima , MLB 2019, ???
2020 - first potential PS5 launch year - Uncharted team new game , Knack studio new game, bloodborne 2 ? , Gravity rush team ? , Killzone team ? , MLB 2020
2021 - PS5 launch year if 2020 doesn't happen (will result in many 2020 titles getting delayed, remasters filling the void) - Spiderman 2 , MLB 2021, next gran tourismo , days gone 2
2022 - second/third wave of PS5 games - God of war 5 , David Cage game, MLB 2022, Media Molecule post-dreams game, Horizon 2
My earlier post detailed why 2020 made sense from a hardware standpoint and I believe I've now made a solid argument for 2020 from a software standpoint. To those wishing for a 2019 release, a 2019 PS5 would just be a PS4 Pro Pro, same CPU , more ram and a better GPU , it would simply render all the same games in true 4K, probably be an 8 TF console. I don't think anyone wants that marginal upgrade including sony and their partners. PS5 needs to be a substantial CPU boost and zen 2 sounds like a price/heat sweet spot but it will only just be ready in time for 2019 , still a bit too early and pricey to toss into a console. 2020 though ? more streamlined , easier to manufacture chips by then. As well a 2020 box could probably be 10 TF , have more (faster) ram for a similar price. It could literally be the difference between "every PS4 title just runs at 4K now" and "every PS4 level game runs at 4K AND 60 FPS now" if they wait until 2020. Obviously finished games will still opt for 30 fps to have MUCH higher fidelity special effects and what not but more power is always better in this case. And given the lineup coming from just Sony these next couple years, it's not as though anyone will be lacking in nice looking games to play through 2019. The only potential drought will be January through to October of 2020 and even then I expect a couple of new games, just not new BIG games.
EDIT -
" I'm really thirsty for a brand new gen now... Sony, please announce it next year and release it in 2019. Ryzen and 12-15 teraflops." They could do this for sure BUT it would cost about 1500 USD to build so you'd be paying 1999.99$ launch day. What you ask for is 3 times more powerful than the released 500 USD Xbox One X. In this case , I suggest looking at gaming PC's. Even there the fastest GPU available costs 1200 USD by itself and doesn't quite hit 12 TF.
- Sony's first / second party agreements have them sitting with Naughty Dog , Sucker Punch, Insomniac , Sony San Diego and Sony Santa Monica in the US. Sony Bend, Quantic Dream, Media Molecule and Guerilla games in Europe. In Japan everything is lumped together under what used to be called SCEJ but if you split it up there seems to be 3-4 studios working on games at any given time over there.
ND is currently working on Last of Us Part Two , a game which is probably 18 months away from completion. They do have a second game on the go for the last few years but that team also just shipped Uncharted Lost Legacy , so in other words the uncharted team just started on a brand new game... so that means it'll probably be 36 -48 months before that comes out unless it's another single player U4 spinoff. Put another way, their next game will be a PS5 title, one that will likely come out after a LOU2 PS5 remaster/upgrade. 2021 seems a likely date for that sucker which gels with my earlier prediction of a 2020 ps5 launch.
Sucker Punch only just finally unveiled Ghosts of Tsushima , something they've had in the works since at least the release of Infamous First Light the stand alone prequel to second son. That pegs Tsushima as a project that might have close to 36 months under it's belt so far , I imagine it's also a 2019 game which means Sucker Punch won't have something else ready for quite some time after that. So , again, we have PS5 being the likely target for anything post ghosts of tsushima.
Insomniac is hard at work on Spider-man , certainly it was only unveiled over the last year (I think the PS4 pro event was the first real announcement on that one?) but insomniacs previous big release was the ratchet and clank remaster which seems to have been worked on in tandem with Sunset overdrive. I have to guess the entire studio has been working on Spiderman since at least the shipment of R&C remastered. That means 18 months , of course if you go since the release of Sunset Overdrive, a decent chunk of the studio has been working on Spiderman since 2015 which is closer to 36 months. Spiderman is due to ship in 2018 and I imagine work on a sequel will commence fairly quickly... a sequel that will probably be a PS5 title in 2021.
Sony San diego seems to work on nothing outside of MLB the show , so unless that agreement dries up or people stop buying it well.. you'll probably keep seeing that one every year.
Sony Santa monica is gearing up to ship god of war Beard dad edition next year and won't likely make something else for 4 years after that title ships. 2022 is most likely there.
Bluepoint Partnership - these guys are some the best remaster peeps in the biz and currently are hard at work on the 2018 remake of Shadow of the Colossus. They will most likely move onto some other remaster/rebuild as soon as it ships which could mean a 2020 game from them as well.
Sony Bend is sadly hard at work on the "what if the if the sons of anarchy was set in the world of the walking dead but played like a super serious take on Dead Rising" game otherwise known as "days gone". Not to bash the devs to hard , it might be a cool game , either way it's due in 2018 so it stands to reason they won't have another release for 3-4 years which pegs 2021/22 for the next thing.
Quantic Dream are of course finishing up Detroit , the latest from David Cage. It's probably shipping in 2018 as well and Cage's games take 4 + years just as anyone else do these days so that means 2022 for probably a PS5 game.
media molecule is of course STILL trying to make DREAMS into something that can be "played" instead of simply a neat tool , probably adding extensive VR support too. Dreams might finally come out next year but who knows how long these guys will spend on their next game ? It'll definitely be a PS5 title that's for sure.
So that leaves Guerilla for the European arm , Horizon just shipped this year and more recently it's expansion pack popped out last week. So that side of the team is likely taking a break and gearing up to get to work on Horizon Second Day or whatever , a project that will likely eat up 4-5 years , 3-4 with some heavy asset re-use. Either way it'll be 2022 before we see anything from that side of the studio. As for the killzone team ? Well, Shadowfall was the last thing they shipped. Even counting multiplayer support and such , that side of GG was likely starting work on something else sometime in 2014 , a good chunk of the shadowfall team likely ended up working on Horizon but some of them have probably been doing something else. Whatever it is stands the best chance out of anything I've mentioned so far of being a 2020 launch game for the PS5.
Now , sony Japan ....
Polyphony Digital JUST shipped GT sport which is meant to be an evolving service , probably 4 years until we get a full blown GT8 or even a GT sport 2(which will likely be all of sports finished assets combined with more traditional single player stuff) which still pegs it at 2021.
The Knack team just shipped Knack 2 this past summer so even a sequel to that is probably 3-4 years away (so 2020/2021)
Whoever makes everyones golf/hotshots golf seems to pump that stuff out at fairly arbitrary times , the newest one felt like it took years to actually release but it's also kind of a service game so ...
Gravity Rush 1/2 team - not the biggest team and GR2 shipped just this year in the spring after a lengthy development schedule. It's possibly they could have something ready for 2020 I suppose.
From Software partnership - so far this has lead to just 2 games - Demon Souls and Bloodborne. As BB was a 2015 title it stands to reason that a future partnership game could aim to be a PS5 launch title in 2020. From also clearly developed DS3 and BB in tandem as they both use the same engine and even share a few assets
So, with all of that out of the way a schedule emerges -
2018 - God of War 4 (5?) , Spiderman, Detroit, Days Gone, MLB 2018, SOTC remake , Dreams ?
2019 - Last of Us Part 2 , Ghosts of Tsushima , MLB 2019, ???
2020 - first potential PS5 launch year - Uncharted team new game , Knack studio new game, bloodborne 2 ? , Gravity rush team ? , Killzone team ? , MLB 2020
2021 - PS5 launch year if 2020 doesn't happen (will result in many 2020 titles getting delayed, remasters filling the void) - Spiderman 2 , MLB 2021, next gran tourismo , days gone 2
2022 - second/third wave of PS5 games - God of war 5 , David Cage game, MLB 2022, Media Molecule post-dreams game, Horizon 2
My earlier post detailed why 2020 made sense from a hardware standpoint and I believe I've now made a solid argument for 2020 from a software standpoint. To those wishing for a 2019 release, a 2019 PS5 would just be a PS4 Pro Pro, same CPU , more ram and a better GPU , it would simply render all the same games in true 4K, probably be an 8 TF console. I don't think anyone wants that marginal upgrade including sony and their partners. PS5 needs to be a substantial CPU boost and zen 2 sounds like a price/heat sweet spot but it will only just be ready in time for 2019 , still a bit too early and pricey to toss into a console. 2020 though ? more streamlined , easier to manufacture chips by then. As well a 2020 box could probably be 10 TF , have more (faster) ram for a similar price. It could literally be the difference between "every PS4 title just runs at 4K now" and "every PS4 level game runs at 4K AND 60 FPS now" if they wait until 2020. Obviously finished games will still opt for 30 fps to have MUCH higher fidelity special effects and what not but more power is always better in this case. And given the lineup coming from just Sony these next couple years, it's not as though anyone will be lacking in nice looking games to play through 2019. The only potential drought will be January through to October of 2020 and even then I expect a couple of new games, just not new BIG games.
EDIT -
" I'm really thirsty for a brand new gen now... Sony, please announce it next year and release it in 2019. Ryzen and 12-15 teraflops." They could do this for sure BUT it would cost about 1500 USD to build so you'd be paying 1999.99$ launch day. What you ask for is 3 times more powerful than the released 500 USD Xbox One X. In this case , I suggest looking at gaming PC's. Even there the fastest GPU available costs 1200 USD by itself and doesn't quite hit 12 TF.
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I'm really thirsty for a brand new gen now... OG PS4, which currently still is Sony's main playstation product, is SOOO old and outdated.
Sony, please announce it next year and release it in 2019. Ryzen and 12-15 teraflops.
Sony, please announce it next year and release it in 2019. Ryzen and 12-15 teraflops.
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Uhm, do you remember PS4 launch? What big Sony games were available on Day One? Right, Killzone: Shadowfall and Knack. Both Infamous: Second Son and DriveClub were delayed quite some time. And look what happened, it worked out pretty well for Sony, didn't it?
You don't need countless first party titles on launch day to start a successful generation. Sony can easily start a new gen in 2019 with their lineup. Here just a few possibilities:
The Last of Us Part II: Cross-gen title, 60fps + improved graphics on PS5. Will blow people away.
Ghost of Tsushima: Could probably be made PS5-exclusive, afair Sucker Punch is relatively small so it probably wasn't that expensive compared to titles like GTA or Assassin's Creed.
Death Stranding: Also a nice PS5 launch candidate.
Bloodborne 2: Release 4 years after Bloodborne 1 on PS5 seems not too far-fetched.
Done. Even if only half of them were PS5 launch titles, it would be an acceptable line up. Add multiple 3rd party titles, and maybe 1-2 previews of Sony first party games coming in 2020, and they are set. Oh, and don't forget backwards compatibility.
Nope:
1.) PS5 will not have 8 TFLOPS 2 years after Xbox One X. Just a quick and simple calculation, if we assume linear progress here for the sake of simplicity:
Xbox One X has ~1.43 times the power of PS4 Pro after one year.
A PS5 in 2018 could have a 6 * 1.43 = 8.58 TFLOPS GPU.
A PS5 in 2019 could have a a 8.58 * 1,43 = 12,27 TFLOPS GPU.
We will have a node shrink before 2019, which makes more powerful chips possible.
2.) Ryzen 2 in 2019 will be a "mature" version of Ryzen, which is ready now.
3.) Devs will not waste all the added power for native 4K.
That's not how this works.
1.) First of all, Sony does not pay retail prices. They have considerably better prices, because they can guarantee sales for multiple million units and because they do not need to make a profit on hardware.
2.) The Xbox One X is using a weak CPU design from 2013, like all the other current-gen consoles. Not because there wasn't something better available, or because it would have been much more expensive to add a better CPU, but because it makes no sense for a mid-gen console to have a much stronger CPU with a completely new design. Also, 12 TFLOPS isn't 3 times the Xbox One X power, it's just 2 times the power.
3.) The AMD Vega 64, which has 12.6 TFLOPS power, currently costs $520, not $1200. And this is the retail price. A GPU with power like this will be much cheaper when we have the AMD Navi design and the node shrink to 7nm.
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There's no higher spec GPU/CPU/Memory being released between 2019 and 2021 from AMD, everything should be out by then so there's no point waiting.
The GPU after Navi is scheduled for 2021 yes but I wouldn't bank on that shipping on time nor can you plan a console a release like that.
By delaying that long they most likely would be releasing after Xbox 2, you'd end up with a Xbox360/PS3 situation and that didn't play out well (not only because of the price).
If a loss is to be made then it will be very small, because R&D has to be made back without relying on software sales too much (I think not sure how it works).
I really hope it's 2020 but i fear that 2019 is what Sony is looking at. It just comes down to how much Sony cares about power and not being upstaged too bad from Nextbox.
2020 feels so right and I want CPU that won't buckle in a few years time
2020 feels so right and I want CPU that won't buckle in a few years time
Weaker* console with the possibility to buy them 1 year head-start or wait and go head to head with Microsoft and possibly still be weaker :P
The battle of the strongest they can fight it out or win* back with a Pro version, while it's still too early MS probably open their eyes (maybe?) with a $500 premium product.
I'm just wild guessing here but the strategy they employed this gen worked out well, so I wouldn't be surprised with a $399 lock for PS5 and a $499 Pro years later.
I'd kiss the console gods if it's 2020.
PLEASE, Sony.
Take your time and make a beast of a machine!
PLEASE, Sony.
Take your time and make a beast of a machine!
Sure there will be a difference with next gen games and like I said the X isn't perfect but it is hitting close to 4k on certain games with dynamic resolution, so like Cerny said, 8 Tflop seems to be the sweet spot to start doing 4k properly.
With games becoming increasingly expensive to make, I'm not so sure we will see a massive leap forward next gen over the mid gen consoles, at least on paper (4.2 / 6 Tflop to 8-10 Tflop maybe) but at least the games will be made with the new hardware in mind and not be held back by the 1.31 Tflop /1.84 Tflop Xbox One and PS4, so we should still see a good difference. You would probably see a decent upgrade if games were made for the Pro and X exclusively.
What can we expect for PSVR specs for the Ps5? What tech improvements can be predicted for VR for 2020/2021?
Haven't they announced Ghost of Tsushima for a 2018 release ? Don't know where people are getting 2019&2020 release dates from.
Ok so i still haven't received an answer from any of you. i will ask it again do you guys think PS5 will have GDDR6 or HBM3 ?
2020
7nm
AMD Zen CPU 4c/8t less 3Ghz
AMD Custom GPU Vega 11 based 10TF (6 Shader Engines)
16GB GDDR5 (512-bit & ~ 400+Gpbs)
8K BluRay Drive
2TB drive (no SSD)
$499
Value Preposition: guaranteed 4K at 60fps / play movies at 8K with BluRay
7nm
AMD Zen CPU 4c/8t less 3Ghz
AMD Custom GPU Vega 11 based 10TF (6 Shader Engines)
16GB GDDR5 (512-bit & ~ 400+Gpbs)
8K BluRay Drive
2TB drive (no SSD)
$499
Value Preposition: guaranteed 4K at 60fps / play movies at 8K with BluRay
Aren't devs more familiar with working with GDDR? And isn't GDDR6 supposed to be cheaper than HBM3? I think this will have some weight in the console design.
apparently you can get 64GBs of HBM3 really cheaply: https://arstechnica.co.uk/gadgets/2016/08/hbm3-details-price-bandwidth/
and HBM3 has much lower latency and power consumption.
I'd say End of 2019 or Early 2020 is likely. Unless Microsoft sells a gazillion X1X's, I'm pretty sure Sony will milk the PS4 generation as much as they possibly can.
I'm also kinda hoping that we'll see more innovation than just more powerful boxes with new consoles. The Switch is definitely showing once again that it's not all about just raw power - convenience is most likely a much bigger selling point for most folks, which is why consoles exist in the first place.
I'm also kinda hoping that we'll see more innovation than just more powerful boxes with new consoles. The Switch is definitely showing once again that it's not all about just raw power - convenience is most likely a much bigger selling point for most folks, which is why consoles exist in the first place.
Samsung is one of the largest manufacturers of memory chips. MS uses ram chips from Hynix.
Interesting analysis here, but I think you may be over-estimating the development times of at least some of the games you mention.
For example, Horizon runs on the Decima engine which is being continually developed, so any future Horizon will almost certainly use it. Zero Dawn launched early 2017, so I see no reason why a sequel couldn't appear 2019 (if rushed) or 2020 (more realistic), which would be a three year time period.
PS5 could conceivably launch late 2019, or more likely late 2020, so Horizon 2 could certainly be a launch title in either year (2.5 or 3.5 years dev time respectively). There's no reason Horizon 2 would take five years to arrive, bar some (possible) unforeseen development disasters. Likewise, I see no reason why, say, a Bloodborne 2 couldn't launch with or around the PS5, if the desire is there.
Is that $499 with s $50 subsidy (I.e. 2 games/1 PS+ sub, same as PS4 launch) or break even on hardware cost alone?
Either way, yeah that's my prediction ballpark although I'm still 50/50 on 19 or 20.
I definitely think they'll repeat 2013 too - PS meeting in Jan/Feb, blow out at E3 with pricing & November launch. I also expect a big controlled/approved leak from one of the main developer conferences next year similar to the Pro 'leaks' last year.
#teamHorizon24PS5launch
#breathofthehorizon
Take the most ambitious prediction from this thread and dial it down by 40%. That is your PS5.
4k for much clearer IQ, camera's built into the headset, which will track the controllers (inside out tracking) so it's much more accurate, similar to the new Mixed Reality Headsets. Also far less cables or even wireless headsets.
I'm thinking more:
7nm Zen 8 core @ 2.7GHz
Custom AMD GPU @20-30TF
16gb RAM @ 420-600Gbps
4K Bly ray standard
2tb base model sHDD(High capacity with small SSD ROM)
Value: Can play new, higher fidelity games at 4K/30, that have much better AI, etc due to the cpu improvement. Some games will opt for check board 4K/60.
I ready in 2019. I bought the PS4 pro six months ago. I think two years from now is enough time to wait. Announce it at E3 2018 and release Nov 2019..
Surely by late 2019 a console be able to do 4k 60fps.
Surely by late 2019 a console be able to do 4k 60fps.
Just some comments I'd like to make on Naughty Dog and Guerrilla Games (all just my opinion of course):
I doubt there's such a thing as a Killzone team at Guerrilla Games. We know for a fact that while Shadow Fall was in development a team of just 10-20 devs worked on Horizon, and the rest of the studio jumped on Horizon once Shadow Fall shipped.That doesn't exactly sound like Guerrilla is a true 2-team studio to me. We also had some strong hints that Guerrilla Cambridge (now closed) was taking over the Killzone franchise (them re-branding to Guerrilla Cambridge, already having a go at the series with the Vita game and they were at one point hiring for "forthcoming projects in a high profile, multi-million selling franchise"). I personally wouldn't expect anything but Horizon from Guerrilla Games in the foreseeable future. It also wouldn't surprise me if not the entire studio worked on The Frozen Wilds, and if that's the case I could see Horizon 2 releasing in 2020. That would give them over 3 and a half years of development time, which sounds long enough when you consider that the first game was made in less than 3 and a half years if you ignore the 10-20 devs working on the basics for a few years. You also have to remember that HZD was a brand new IP and open world instead of linear, which probably added some time to the game's development because Guerrilla simply had to find out how to develop an open world game and probably had to modify their engine. With Guerrilla now knowing how development of an open world game works and the engine being good to go from day 1 Horizon 2 should be able to be developed faster than the first game. I'd put my money on Holiday 2020, possibly as PS5 launch title.
I also think the same goes for Naughty Dog and the development their upcoming games. After the The Last of Us Part II PGW trailer Neil Druckmann said that the entire studio is working on the game, and with how highly anticipated the game is I don't see why that wouldn't be true because I'm sure that Naughty Dog and Sony want people to play the game as fast as possible, especially with how the game was announced almost an entire year ago. Maybe there's a similar situation like Guerrilla had when Horizon started development after Killzone 3, but I doubt there's enough people working on another game besides The Last of Us Part II to the point where we can expect another Naughty Dog game before 2022 at the earliest.
bb2 as the launch title means its a day 1 putchase from me
You just make so much sense. Yet people read your post and without any reason they say no, 2021.
Holiday 2019. A Vega variant between 10 to 12 TF, 16 to 24 Gb of ram (most probably gddr6), ryzen mobile variant as cpu. And ps4 price cut to $199,pro $299 and ps5 $399 or $449.
Hard to tell as we don't know pretty much anything about HBM3 right now. But if it's the same as HBM2 only faster then I'd give it less than 1% chance of being in PS5 - it's just way too expensive for a machine where costs are of the utmost importance.
I think they will drop the PS4 Pro when they launch PS5.
By then ps4 should be cheap enough to make healthy profits at a sub $200 price. The marketing will be confusing: "Buy our new 4K console! Oh no, not the PS4 Pro that 80% of you didn't buy. That wasn't really 4K tho, sorry early adopters!"
Three SKUs could be confusing to the general consumers since the PS5 would become the real 4K console, the Pro would become a meh-4K device in comparison and the slim (or super slim by then) would be the budget HD device. Might as well simplify it.
$399 PS5, $199 Super Slim PS4
I doubt they announce it a year early. They only did that with PS3 because it got delayed and was supposed to launch in 2005.
It would be dumb because you'd lose holiday sales in 2018 while the system is still selling.
I really doubt they do 2019, PS4 has stupid good momentum and sales won't dip below 15M annually until then maybe even not then.
But if they do launch in 2019, there is no way they jeopardize holiday 2018 sales. They would announce it early in the year it releases, like PS4
You can't get such an amount of memory with a price point below $499 if we look into how prices in that area develop (imo). Also the SoC will be as big as the one the Xbox One X sports at the moment. That is still a huge chip to produce. That is also a reason I do not predict 8 physical cores as SMT will be cheaper from a die space requirement. I also cannot image more than 10TF as again there will be a die size constraint even with 7nm.
They are not dropping the pro lol. No one is getting confused with iPhone 8 vs iPhone x. They played down the pro as much as possible to not run into that issue. Ps5 name with bc, maybe uhd drive and more power is good enough to convince people.
That's not the same thing, your own iPhone analogy works against you
iPhone 7 sales are up and it's outselling I Phone 8, which iPhone 8 sales are being cannibalized by the iPhone X.
People don't want almost the best product, they either want something affordable or top of the line.
This shows people want either the cheapest entry point or the top product. No middle.
Why would anyone who wants to Best experience for PS4 games buy a $300 Pro but not a $400 PS5, especially if PS5 is BC?
People would naturally gravitate towards two SKUs. One of them inevitably has to get lost in the shuffle.
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