Last Gen was 7 years. We just got a mid console upgrade last year with PS4 Pro and Xbox One X just few weeks ago. I see this Gen lasting another 2-3 years.I highly doubt this gen will last 8 years before the successor is out.
Last Gen was 7 years. We just got a mid console upgrade last year with PS4 Pro and Xbox One X just few weeks ago. I see this Gen lasting another 2-3 years.I highly doubt this gen will last 8 years before the successor is out.
Well in 2 years that will be 2019. So that will be 6 years for both Sony and Microsoft if they release during fall of that year.Last Gen was 7 years. We just got a mid console upgrade last year with PS4 Pro and Xbox One X just few weeks ago. I see this Gen lasting another 2-3 years.
Which is funny because we're almost at December, basically 2018 is just around the corner.Well in 2 years that will be 2019. So that will be 6 years for both Sony and Microsoft if they release during fall of that year.
Mark Cerny's comment about needing at least 8TF to handle native 4K seemed to have been in context regarding current gen (PS4). Therefore next-gen / PS5, will need considerably more than 8TF.
Given PS5 should be using some variant of Zen 2, the CPU won't be as much of an issue as it has been this gen, and while we will always have a mix of 30fps & 60fps games, maybe an iterative PS5 Pro in 2022 can increase CPU clockspeed enough, coupled with a 2x to 2.5x stronger GPU and swap out the GDDR6 for (a matured) HBM3. Then the focus of the PS5 Pro won't be higher resolutions, but higher framerates. It would also benefit PSVR2 perhaps even more than PS4 Pro benefited PSVR.
https://www.extremetech.com/gaming/...tions-to-blow-the-doors-off-the-memory-market
PS5 in 2019?
Its only going to be minimal upgrade if at all from the pro.
Realistically 2021, but most likely Holiday 2020.
It's a bit unclear if they mean capacity (Gb) or throughput (Gbps) which is mentioned below. But it wouldn's surprise me.Samsung's press release seems to indicate that they already have developed chips with 16 Gbit capacity
I don't think that they will. Wider bus is expensive and is better used on a "PS5Pro" down the line.
It is highly unlikely that Sony will use different memory in the same console generation unless their APIs for PS5 will be significantly higher level than these of PS4.Yeah, 24GB GDDR6 & 384-bit bus sounds like a very sweet spot baseline for next-gen.
Then three years later the PS5 Pro can jump on a mature HBM3.
NoDo you all think PS5 or Nextbox will be as powerful CPU wise as a 8350K?
Thinking of picking one up.
No? desktop vs mobile and it's clocked higher as well (the 8350K).Do you all think PS5 or Nextbox will be as powerful CPU wise as a 8350K?
Thinking of picking one up.
Whoops. I forgot were still in 2017 LOLWell in 2 years that will be 2019. So that will be 6 years for both Sony and Microsoft if they release during fall of that year.
I enjoy that this thread has stayed on the front page for all of Resetera's lifespan thus far. I've already made one comment on where Sony will likely go , I'll now bring up the current software situation.
- Sony's first / second party agreements have them sitting with Naughty Dog , Sucker Punch, Insomniac , Sony San Diego and Sony Santa Monica in the US. Sony Bend, Quantic Dream, Media Molecule and Guerilla games in Europe. In Japan everything is lumped together under what used to be called SCEJ but if you split it up there seems to be 3-4 studios working on games at any given time over there.
ND is currently working on Last of Us Part Two , a game which is probably 18 months away from completion. They do have a second game on the go for the last few years but that team also just shipped Uncharted Lost Legacy , so in other words the uncharted team just started on a brand new game... so that means it'll probably be 36 -48 months before that comes out unless it's another single player U4 spinoff. Put another way, their next game will be a PS5 title, one that will likely come out after a LOU2 PS5 remaster/upgrade. 2021 seems a likely date for that sucker which gels with my earlier prediction of a 2020 ps5 launch.
Sucker Punch only just finally unveiled Ghosts of Tsushima , something they've had in the works since at least the release of Infamous First Light the stand alone prequel to second son. That pegs Tsushima as a project that might have close to 36 months under it's belt so far , I imagine it's also a 2019 game which means Sucker Punch won't have something else ready for quite some time after that. So , again, we have PS5 being the likely target for anything post ghosts of tsushima.
Insomniac is hard at work on Spider-man , certainly it was only unveiled over the last year (I think the PS4 pro event was the first real announcement on that one?) but insomniacs previous big release was the ratchet and clank remaster which seems to have been worked on in tandem with Sunset overdrive. I have to guess the entire studio has been working on Spiderman since at least the shipment of R&C remastered. That means 18 months , of course if you go since the release of Sunset Overdrive, a decent chunk of the studio has been working on Spiderman since 2015 which is closer to 36 months. Spiderman is due to ship in 2018 and I imagine work on a sequel will commence fairly quickly... a sequel that will probably be a PS5 title in 2021.
Sony San diego seems to work on nothing outside of MLB the show , so unless that agreement dries up or people stop buying it well.. you'll probably keep seeing that one every year.
Sony Santa monica is gearing up to ship god of war Beard dad edition next year and won't likely make something else for 4 years after that title ships. 2022 is most likely there.
Bluepoint Partnership - these guys are some the best remaster peeps in the biz and currently are hard at work on the 2018 remake of Shadow of the Colossus. They will most likely move onto some other remaster/rebuild as soon as it ships which could mean a 2020 game from them as well.
Sony Bend is sadly hard at work on the "what if the if the sons of anarchy was set in the world of the walking dead but played like a super serious take on Dead Rising" game otherwise known as "days gone". Not to bash the devs to hard , it might be a cool game , either way it's due in 2018 so it stands to reason they won't have another release for 3-4 years which pegs 2021/22 for the next thing.
Quantic Dream are of course finishing up Detroit , the latest from David Cage. It's probably shipping in 2018 as well and Cage's games take 4 + years just as anyone else do these days so that means 2022 for probably a PS5 game.
media molecule is of course STILL trying to make DREAMS into something that can be "played" instead of simply a neat tool , probably adding extensive VR support too. Dreams might finally come out next year but who knows how long these guys will spend on their next game ? It'll definitely be a PS5 title that's for sure.
So that leaves Guerilla for the European arm , Horizon just shipped this year and more recently it's expansion pack popped out last week. So that side of the team is likely taking a break and gearing up to get to work on Horizon Second Day or whatever , a project that will likely eat up 4-5 years , 3-4 with some heavy asset re-use. Either way it'll be 2022 before we see anything from that side of the studio. As for the killzone team ? Well, Shadowfall was the last thing they shipped. Even counting multiplayer support and such , that side of GG was likely starting work on something else sometime in 2014 , a good chunk of the shadowfall team likely ended up working on Horizon but some of them have probably been doing something else. Whatever it is stands the best chance out of anything I've mentioned so far of being a 2020 launch game for the PS5.
Now , sony Japan ....
Polyphony Digital JUST shipped GT sport which is meant to be an evolving service , probably 4 years until we get a full blown GT8 or even a GT sport 2(which will likely be all of sports finished assets combined with more traditional single player stuff) which still pegs it at 2021.
The Knack team just shipped Knack 2 this past summer so even a sequel to that is probably 3-4 years away (so 2020/2021)
Whoever makes everyones golf/hotshots golf seems to pump that stuff out at fairly arbitrary times , the newest one felt like it took years to actually release but it's also kind of a service game so ...
Gravity Rush 1/2 team - not the biggest team and GR2 shipped just this year in the spring after a lengthy development schedule. It's possibly they could have something ready for 2020 I suppose.
From Software partnership - so far this has lead to just 2 games - Demon Souls and Bloodborne. As BB was a 2015 title it stands to reason that a future partnership game could aim to be a PS5 launch title in 2020. From also clearly developed DS3 and BB in tandem as they both use the same engine and even share a few assets
So, with all of that out of the way a schedule emerges -
2018 - God of War 4 (5?) , Spiderman, Detroit, Days Gone, MLB 2018, SOTC remake , Dreams ?
2019 - Last of Us Part 2 , Ghosts of Tsushima , MLB 2019, ???
2020 - first potential PS5 launch year - Uncharted team new game , Knack studio new game, bloodborne 2 ? , Gravity rush team ? , Killzone team ? , MLB 2020
2021 - PS5 launch year if 2020 doesn't happen (will result in many 2020 titles getting delayed, remasters filling the void) - Spiderman 2 , MLB 2021, next gran tourismo , days gone 2
2022 - second/third wave of PS5 games - God of war 5 , David Cage game, MLB 2022, Media Molecule post-dreams game, Horizon 2
My earlier post detailed why 2020 made sense from a hardware standpoint and I believe I've now made a solid argument for 2020 from a software standpoint. To those wishing for a 2019 release, a 2019 PS5 would just be a PS4 Pro Pro, same CPU , more ram and a better GPU , it would simply render all the same games in true 4K, probably be an 8 TF console. I don't think anyone wants that marginal upgrade including sony and their partners. PS5 needs to be a substantial CPU boost and zen 2 sounds like a price/heat sweet spot but it will only just be ready in time for 2019 , still a bit too early and pricey to toss into a console. 2020 though ? more streamlined , easier to manufacture chips by then. As well a 2020 box could probably be 10 TF , have more (faster) ram for a similar price. It could literally be the difference between "every PS4 title just runs at 4K now" and "every PS4 level game runs at 4K AND 60 FPS now" if they wait until 2020. Obviously finished games will still opt for 30 fps to have MUCH higher fidelity special effects and what not but more power is always better in this case. And given the lineup coming from just Sony these next couple years, it's not as though anyone will be lacking in nice looking games to play through 2019. The only potential drought will be January through to October of 2020 and even then I expect a couple of new games, just not new BIG games.
My earlier post detailed why 2020 made sense from a hardware standpoint and I believe I've now made a solid argument for 2020 from a software standpoint.
. To those wishing for a 2019 release, a 2019 PS5 would just be a PS4 Pro Pro, same CPU , more ram and a better GPU , it would simply render all the same games in true 4K, probably be an 8 TF console
" I'm really thirsty for a brand new gen now... Sony, please announce it next year and release it in 2019. Ryzen and 12-15 teraflops." They could do this for sure BUT it would cost about 1500 USD to build so you'd be paying 1999.99$ launch day. What you ask for is 3 times more powerful than the released 500 USD Xbox One X. In this case , I suggest looking at gaming PC's. Even there the fastest GPU available costs 1200 USD by itself and doesn't quite hit 12 TF.
I would advise Sony to target a holiday 2021 launch, and aim for high specs. By delaying the launch of PS5 it can give Sony access to better technology, and I would advise a $500 initial price and even absorb a small loss per console.
Weaker* console with the possibility to buy them 1 year head-start or wait and go head to head with Microsoft and possibly still be weaker :PI really hope it's 2020 but i fear that 2019 is what Sony is looking at. It just comes down to how much Sony cares about power and not being upstaged too bad from Nextbox.
2020 feels so right and I want CPU that won't buckle in a few years time
The X1X in majority of the games are not Native 4K on it it's either dynamic, checkerboard, or lower resolutions
On top of that X1X is using last gen (this gen) games
While next gen again visuals, ai, interactivity etc will increase and be much more demanding than current gen games we have now so hitting 4K with those games will be much harder to achieve
The consensus also seems to be that PS4 was underpowered at its release,
What can we expect for PSVR specs for the Ps5? What tech improvements can be predicted for VR for 2020/2021?
Aren't devs more familiar with working with GDDR? And isn't GDDR6 supposed to be cheaper than HBM3? I think this will have some weight in the console design.Ok so i still haven't received an answer from any of you. i will ask it again do you guys think PS5 will have GDDR6 or HBM3 ?
Aren't devs more familiar with working with GDDR? And isn't GDDR6 supposed to be cheaper than HBM3? I think this will have some weight in the console design.
Samsung is one of the largest manufacturers of memory chips. MS uses ram chips from Hynix.
So that leaves Guerilla for the European arm , Horizon just shipped this year and more recently it's expansion pack popped out last week. So that side of the team is likely taking a break and gearing up to get to work on Horizon Second Day or whatever , a project that will likely eat up 4-5 years , 3-4 with some heavy asset re-use. Either way it'll be 2022 before we see anything from that side of the studio. As for the killzone team ? Well, Shadowfall was the last thing they shipped. Even counting multiplayer support and such , that side of GG was likely starting work on something else sometime in 2014 , a good chunk of the shadowfall team likely ended up working on Horizon but some of them have probably been doing something else. Whatever it is stands the best chance out of anything I've mentioned so far of being a 2020 launch game for the PS5.
2020
7nm
AMD Zen CPU 4c/8t less 3Ghz
AMD Custom GPU Vega 11 based 10TF (6 Shader Engines)
16GB GDDR5 (512-bit & ~ 400+Gpbs)
8K BluRay Drive
2TB drive (no SSD)
$499
Value Preposition: guaranteed 4K at 60fps / play movies at 8K with BluRay
Take the most ambitious prediction from this thread and dial it down by 40%. That is your PS5.
What can we expect for PSVR specs for the Ps5? What tech improvements can be predicted for VR for 2020/2021?
I'm thinking more:2020
7nm
AMD Zen CPU 4c/8t less 3Ghz
AMD Custom GPU Vega 11 based 10TF (6 Shader Engines)
16GB GDDR5 (512-bit & ~ 400+Gpbs)
8K BluRay Drive
2TB drive (no SSD)
$499
Value Preposition: guaranteed 4K at 60fps / play movies at 8K with BluRay
I enjoy that this thread has stayed on the front page for all of Resetera's lifespan thus far. I've already made one comment on where Sony will likely go , I'll now bring up the current software situation.
- Sony's first / second party agreements have them sitting with Naughty Dog , Sucker Punch, Insomniac , Sony San Diego and Sony Santa Monica in the US. Sony Bend, Quantic Dream, Media Molecule and Guerilla games in Europe. In Japan everything is lumped together under what used to be called SCEJ but if you split it up there seems to be 3-4 studios working on games at any given time over there.
ND is currently working on Last of Us Part Two , a game which is probably 18 months away from completion. They do have a second game on the go for the last few years but that team also just shipped Uncharted Lost Legacy , so in other words the uncharted team just started on a brand new game... so that means it'll probably be 36 -48 months before that comes out unless it's another single player U4 spinoff. Put another way, their next game will be a PS5 title, one that will likely come out after a LOU2 PS5 remaster/upgrade. 2021 seems a likely date for that sucker which gels with my earlier prediction of a 2020 ps5 launch.
Sucker Punch only just finally unveiled Ghosts of Tsushima , something they've had in the works since at least the release of Infamous First Light the stand alone prequel to second son. That pegs Tsushima as a project that might have close to 36 months under it's belt so far , I imagine it's also a 2019 game which means Sucker Punch won't have something else ready for quite some time after that. So , again, we have PS5 being the likely target for anything post ghosts of tsushima.
Insomniac is hard at work on Spider-man , certainly it was only unveiled over the last year (I think the PS4 pro event was the first real announcement on that one?) but insomniacs previous big release was the ratchet and clank remaster which seems to have been worked on in tandem with Sunset overdrive. I have to guess the entire studio has been working on Spiderman since at least the shipment of R&C remastered. That means 18 months , of course if you go since the release of Sunset Overdrive, a decent chunk of the studio has been working on Spiderman since 2015 which is closer to 36 months. Spiderman is due to ship in 2018 and I imagine work on a sequel will commence fairly quickly... a sequel that will probably be a PS5 title in 2021.
Sony San diego seems to work on nothing outside of MLB the show , so unless that agreement dries up or people stop buying it well.. you'll probably keep seeing that one every year.
Sony Santa monica is gearing up to ship god of war Beard dad edition next year and won't likely make something else for 4 years after that title ships. 2022 is most likely there.
Bluepoint Partnership - these guys are some the best remaster peeps in the biz and currently are hard at work on the 2018 remake of Shadow of the Colossus. They will most likely move onto some other remaster/rebuild as soon as it ships which could mean a 2020 game from them as well.
Sony Bend is sadly hard at work on the "what if the if the sons of anarchy was set in the world of the walking dead but played like a super serious take on Dead Rising" game otherwise known as "days gone". Not to bash the devs to hard , it might be a cool game , either way it's due in 2018 so it stands to reason they won't have another release for 3-4 years which pegs 2021/22 for the next thing.
Quantic Dream are of course finishing up Detroit , the latest from David Cage. It's probably shipping in 2018 as well and Cage's games take 4 + years just as anyone else do these days so that means 2022 for probably a PS5 game.
media molecule is of course STILL trying to make DREAMS into something that can be "played" instead of simply a neat tool , probably adding extensive VR support too. Dreams might finally come out next year but who knows how long these guys will spend on their next game ? It'll definitely be a PS5 title that's for sure.
So that leaves Guerilla for the European arm , Horizon just shipped this year and more recently it's expansion pack popped out last week. So that side of the team is likely taking a break and gearing up to get to work on Horizon Second Day or whatever , a project that will likely eat up 4-5 years , 3-4 with some heavy asset re-use. Either way it'll be 2022 before we see anything from that side of the studio. As for the killzone team ? Well, Shadowfall was the last thing they shipped. Even counting multiplayer support and such , that side of GG was likely starting work on something else sometime in 2014 , a good chunk of the shadowfall team likely ended up working on Horizon but some of them have probably been doing something else. Whatever it is stands the best chance out of anything I've mentioned so far of being a 2020 launch game for the PS5.
Now , sony Japan ....
Polyphony Digital JUST shipped GT sport which is meant to be an evolving service , probably 4 years until we get a full blown GT8 or even a GT sport 2(which will likely be all of sports finished assets combined with more traditional single player stuff) which still pegs it at 2021.
The Knack team just shipped Knack 2 this past summer so even a sequel to that is probably 3-4 years away (so 2020/2021)
Whoever makes everyones golf/hotshots golf seems to pump that stuff out at fairly arbitrary times , the newest one felt like it took years to actually release but it's also kind of a service game so ...
Gravity Rush 1/2 team - not the biggest team and GR2 shipped just this year in the spring after a lengthy development schedule. It's possibly they could have something ready for 2020 I suppose.
From Software partnership - so far this has lead to just 2 games - Demon Souls and Bloodborne. As BB was a 2015 title it stands to reason that a future partnership game could aim to be a PS5 launch title in 2020. From also clearly developed DS3 and BB in tandem as they both use the same engine and even share a few assets
So, with all of that out of the way a schedule emerges -
2018 - God of War 4 (5?) , Spiderman, Detroit, Days Gone, MLB 2018, SOTC remake , Dreams ?
2019 - Last of Us Part 2 , Ghosts of Tsushima , MLB 2019, ???
2020 - first potential PS5 launch year - Uncharted team new game , Knack studio new game, bloodborne 2 ? , Gravity rush team ? , Killzone team ? , MLB 2020
2021 - PS5 launch year if 2020 doesn't happen (will result in many 2020 titles getting delayed, remasters filling the void) - Spiderman 2 , MLB 2021, next gran tourismo , days gone 2
2022 - second/third wave of PS5 games - God of war 5 , David Cage game, MLB 2022, Media Molecule post-dreams game, Horizon 2
My earlier post detailed why 2020 made sense from a hardware standpoint and I believe I've now made a solid argument for 2020 from a software standpoint. To those wishing for a 2019 release, a 2019 PS5 would just be a PS4 Pro Pro, same CPU , more ram and a better GPU , it would simply render all the same games in true 4K, probably be an 8 TF console. I don't think anyone wants that marginal upgrade including sony and their partners. PS5 needs to be a substantial CPU boost and zen 2 sounds like a price/heat sweet spot but it will only just be ready in time for 2019 , still a bit too early and pricey to toss into a console. 2020 though ? more streamlined , easier to manufacture chips by then. As well a 2020 box could probably be 10 TF , have more (faster) ram for a similar price. It could literally be the difference between "every PS4 title just runs at 4K now" and "every PS4 level game runs at 4K AND 60 FPS now" if they wait until 2020. Obviously finished games will still opt for 30 fps to have MUCH higher fidelity special effects and what not but more power is always better in this case. And given the lineup coming from just Sony these next couple years, it's not as though anyone will be lacking in nice looking games to play through 2019. The only potential drought will be January through to October of 2020 and even then I expect a couple of new games, just not new BIG games.
EDIT -
" I'm really thirsty for a brand new gen now... Sony, please announce it next year and release it in 2019. Ryzen and 12-15 teraflops." They could do this for sure BUT it would cost about 1500 USD to build so you'd be paying 1999.99$ launch day. What you ask for is 3 times more powerful than the released 500 USD Xbox One X. In this case , I suggest looking at gaming PC's. Even there the fastest GPU available costs 1200 USD by itself and doesn't quite hit 12 TF.
bb2 as the launch title means its a day 1 putchase from meBloodborne 2: Release 4 years after Bloodborne 1 on PS5 seems not too far-fetched.
.
You just make so much sense. Yet people read your post and without any reason they say no, 2021.Weaker* console with the possibility to buy them 1 year head-start or wait and go head to head with Microsoft and possibly still be weaker :P
The battle of the strongest they can fight it out or win* back with a Pro version, while it's still too early MS probably open their eyes (maybe?) with a $500 premium product.
I'm just wild guessing here but the strategy they employed this gen worked out well, so I wouldn't be surprised with a $399 lock for PS5 and a $499 Pro years later.
Hard to tell as we don't know pretty much anything about HBM3 right now. But if it's the same as HBM2 only faster then I'd give it less than 1% chance of being in PS5 - it's just way too expensive for a machine where costs are of the utmost importance.Ok so i still haven't received an answer from any of you. i will ask it again do you guys think PS5 will have GDDR6 or HBM3 ?
I think they will drop the PS4 Pro when they launch PS5.You just make so much sense. Yet people read your post and without any reason they say no, 2021.
Holiday 2019. A Vega variant between 10 to 12 TF, 16 to 24 Gb of ram (most probably gddr6), ryzen mobile variant as cpu. And ps4 price cut to $199,pro $299 and ps5 $399 or $449.
I doubt they announce it a year early. They only did that with PS3 because it got delayed and was supposed to launch in 2005.I ready in 2019. I bought the PS4 pro six months ago. I think two years from now is enough time to wait. Announce it at E3 2018 and release Nov 2019..
Surely by late 2019 a console be able to do 4k 60fps.
You can't get such an amount of memory with a price point below $499 if we look into how prices in that area develop (imo). Also the SoC will be as big as the one the Xbox One X sports at the moment. That is still a huge chip to produce. That is also a reason I do not predict 8 physical cores as SMT will be cheaper from a die space requirement. I also cannot image more than 10TF as again there will be a die size constraint even with 7nm.Is that $499 with s $50 subsidy (I.e. 2 games/1 PS+ sub, same as PS4 launch) or break even on hardware cost alone?
Either way, yeah that's my prediction ballpark although I'm still 50/50 on 19 or 20.
I definitely think they'll repeat 2013 too - PS meeting in Jan/Feb, blow out at E3 with pricing & November launch. I also expect a big controlled/approved leak from one of the main developer conferences next year similar to the Pro 'leaks' last year.
#teamHorizon24PS5launch
#breathofthehorizon
They are not dropping the pro lol. No one is getting confused with iPhone 8 vs iPhone x. They played down the pro as much as possible to not run into that issue. Ps5 name with bc, maybe uhd drive and more power is good enough to convince people.I think they will drop the PS4 Pro when they launch PS5.
By then ps4 should be cheap enough to make healthy profits at a sub $200 price. The marketing will be confusing: "Buy our new 4K console! Oh no, not the PS4 Pro that 80% of you didn't buy. That wasn't really 4K tho, sorry early adopters!"
Three SKUs could be confusing to the general consumers since the PS5 would become the real 4K console, the Pro would become a meh-4K device in comparison and the slim (or super slim by then) would be the budget HD device. Might as well simplify it.
$399 PS5, $199 Super Slim PS4
That's not the same thing, your own iPhone analogy works against youThey are not dropping the pro lol. No one is getting confused with iPhone 8 vs iPhone x. They played down the pro as much as possible to not run into that issue. Ps5 name with bc, maybe uhd drive and more power is good enough to convince people.