There are little things that would make Manon a contender. I would gladly trade 1000 damage off the medal system to give her like...50 more points of damage on all of her normals; Turns round 1 engagements from 5 to 4, round two stays around 3 to 2. Speed up 2HP. Bigger projectile invun window for fient rev. Extend air punch hitboxes a LITTLE bit. make 2mk cancellable. Either do something with 3HK or remove it, or make it a proper slide. Give all of the ballerina kicks air properties so they can be effective against fireballs and sweeps.
She feels like Compromise: The Character. She has grapples but getting the grapples to be dominant and as dangerous as Giefs takes a ton of work, especially at high levels of play. She has strikes but the strikes aren't very powerful and a lot of them are big, sweeping,
slow strikes you can see coming from a mile away. She's even got a split theme, being the Judo/Ballet practitioner. Which itself is a huge paradox, because Judo is 100% about economy of motion whereas Ballet is defined by grand movements.
I dunno I really think they had way too many conflicting ideas with her and it's kind of evident in how she plays.
I also agree that taking some emphasis off of her medals and giving her normals more bite (and more than the meager amount of combo routes she currently has)
Lily and Honda though...that's a harder assignment.
I think Gief is even harder than Honda, but I'd put both Gief and Lily in the same boat. The damage of their archetypes aren't really consistent with the rest of the cast, which means balancing them could either make them complete garbage or OD as hell. Gief can be a 3 touch character with 4 actual moves. Lily
looks like she was envisioned to be a "Death by 1000 paper cuts" kind of character so her moves would definitely make sense in that context, but they kinda shoehorned her into a typical damage/hit style later? I dunno, her entire thing is just weird and makes no sense. She feels like half a character.