It's 7 months before the Emmys air, but the cutoff for shows this year is May 31st. I think they just look at industry buzz about the shows. Some of them haven't aired, like Ted Lasso Season 3 or Beef.
The eligibility window for the Emmys is sometime in May (wherein you need to have aired more than half the episodes of your season by that point) - so in terms of the frontrunners, now is a decent time for them to be starting to make predictions. It's why Succession is airing probably after TLOU S1 ends rather than a few months ago - and also why certain shows like The Idol have been delayed to June (they probably realise it isn't an Emmy show).
This is kinda why Twin Peaks: The Return got snubbed - it aired mostly after the May cutoff and was only eligible for the following summer. Shows have done this and succeeded before, but they gotta have crazy buzz to stay in people's minds that long after airing.
Depending if S4 of Succ blows people away (or, possibly, feels like treading water before a final season) - I can imagine the breakout nature of TLOU cleaning up.