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TerminusFox

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,851
I think they did learn the lesson, hence their solution: gerrymandered districts. However Trump is such a disaster/pariah that he has breached a firewall that could have lasted years. Imagine if Kasich or Rubio were president right now, with this economy. Kasich especially would likely be at what, 53% approval right now? History suggests republicans would still lose seats, but not many. Republicans wouldn't lose power until the next recession.
I think 53 is really underselling it. I'm thinking sixties, honestly.
 

Deleted member 8257

Oct 26, 2017
24,586
Fuckin absolutely, you would see daily op-eds about how much the democrats will lose and why they are failing so much
Media loves winners. Republicans always win, even if they're losing they project a win. They play to win by hook or by crook (literally). They hate Democrats because they're introspective, not full of themselves and cautious, and the only reason why Dems could win is accidentally.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
I think 53 is really underselling it. I'm thinking sixties, honestly.
Sixties early on, sure, but I think the sheen would have worn off very quickly.

A more reasonable president wouldn't much if anything to paper over the severe problems within the GOP caucus. Whatever ACA or tax cut bills could pass would still be disasters. I don't think people would be quite as mad - we'd be looking at 15-20 House seats tops with a handful of crucial governors' races, and the Senate would be a complete fantasy rather than just long odds. But as Box of Kittens pointed out earlier, it's not like Trump, or similarly bad candidates like Moore were just some accident that happened to the GOP. I think the party is too far gone to be saved by one figurehead they can rally around.
 

Soul Skater

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,201
I think they did learn the lesson, hence their solution: gerrymandered districts. However Trump is such a disaster/pariah that he has breached a firewall that could have lasted years. Imagine if Kasich or Rubio were president right now, with this economy. Kasich especially would likely be at what, 53% approval right now? History suggests republicans would still lose seats, but not many. Republicans wouldn't lose power until the next recession.
I'm not sure it's so much that he's a disaster per say that's a problem, it's that Trump shook up and shifted the numbers on the map that the specific way they've gerrymandered it doesn't accurately reflect Trumps stengths

i.e., us making huge pick ups in suburban areas where as the GOP built their gerrymandering around their ability to dominate these like they did in the Bush era
 

Bobson Dugnutt

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,052
what would be an acceptable loss for beto to still be a viable candidate in 2020, were he to run? within three points or so or would it not matter so much even if he gets soundly beaten because of a vastly different electorate in the important primary states
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,243
This whole thing, basically.

Trump Steps Up Attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
In an interview Tuesday with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Trump acknowledged the independence the Fed has long enjoyed in setting economic policy, while also making clear he was intentionally sending a direct message to Mr. Powell that he wanted lower interest rates.

"Every time we do something great, he raises the interest rates," Mr. Trump said, adding that Mr. Powell "almost looks like he's happy raising interest rates." The president declined to elaborate, and a spokeswoman for the Fed declined to comment.

Mr. Trump said it was "too early to say, but maybe" he regrets nominating Mr. Powell.

He referred to economic gains during his time in office as
"my numbers," saying, "I have a hot economy going." He described his push for growth as a competition with former President Obama's record, saying that increases under his Democratic predecessor were skewed because of low-interest rates.

Asked an open-ended question about what he viewed as the biggest risks to the economy, Mr. Trump gave a single answer: the Fed.
"To me the Fed is the biggest risk, because I think interest rates are being raised too quickly," the president said just before he pushed a red button on his desk, summoning an iced cola delivered to him on a silver platter.

...

Asked why he thought Mr. Powell was raising rates, Mr. Trump paused, then said, "He was supposed to be a low-interest-rate guy. It's turned out that he's not."

Mr. Trump demurred when asked under what circumstances he'd remove Mr. Powell, who he selected for a four-year term that started in February. "I don't know," he said. "I'm just saying this: I'm very unhappy with the Fed because Obama had zero interest rates."

He said the Fed was supposed to be independent "in theory," but said his instinct was that interest rates are being raised too quickly.
Citing the rate increases, Mr. Trump said, "How the hell do you compete with that? And Obama — remember this, it's very important — Obama had zero interest," the president said.

It's not fair. OBAMA!!!!

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-...man-jerome-powell-1540338090?mod=hp_lead_pos3
 

Ogodei

One Winged Slayer
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,256
Coruscant
Gerrymandering is ultimately like a military occupation: spread your troops to cover as much of the conquered populace as possible. Territory you can't safely control you cede in its entirety (leading to the fact that some of the most Democratic districts in the country are in bad R gerrymander states, like PA, OH, MI, FL, and GA). But then if there's strain, a revolt, your soldiers are spread too thin and the whole thing collapses, Napoleon or Hitler style.
 

EvilChameleon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
23,793
Ohio
I'm sorry, but to say Kasich would only have a 53% approval rating is laughable. He is more popular among Democrats than Republicans here in Ohio, and that is mainly because he has been relatively pro-ACA since the beginning. The only thing I could see changing under a Kasich presidency is the individual mandate going away.

Now does he suck on the other issues, like abortion? Sure. But people aren't really running for or against abortion right now. Healthcare is the big issue.
 

Madison

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
8,388
Lima, Peru
what would be an acceptable loss for beto to still be a viable candidate in 2020, were he to run? within three points or so or would it not matter so much even if he gets soundly beaten because of a vastly different electorate in the important primary states
The problem is that Beto has repeateadly expressed zero interest on pursuing anything more than the senate, unless hes lying but he doesnt strike me as one
 

FreezePeach

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
12,811
I mean in the Beto town hall when pushed he was all like, 'well listen, i can tell you im focused on 6 years in the senate and then after that we'll see.' Pretty obvious.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
I think everyone talking about how high Kasich or Rubio or whoever's approval ratings would be is forgetting the x-factor that would bring them down:

Trump TV, day and night whining about how badly they're betraying the Republican base and declaring that if only Trump hadn't been unfairly robbed of the nomination he'd be doing a much better job.
 

less

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,845
That was a fantastic video.

It really is. He presents a solid reasoning for voting after going decades without doing so. If only more of the people I knew had more faith in voting or at least were willing to give it a try. But too many of them believe that nothing will change and that both sides are the same despite everything that the GOP and Trump have done lately.
 

lenovox1

Member
Oct 26, 2017
8,995
I keep telling people here and in Etc that the race is her's, yet no one ever wants to listen.

Nah, she won in that "who do you want to be the nominee" poll. People are going to hang on to "their man" until he or she loses, as they should. The primaries haven't even started yet.

But, yes, she ticks off all the boxes and I think she has major demographic advantages in coastal urban centers and the South.
 
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