US PoliERA 2019 |OT5| She's got a plan for that, now sashay away
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This reminds me of the old Onion headline
"Ska Band Outnumbers Audience"
You're implying the voting public is holding this against Dems when every metric says they're not. Voters understand the situation House Dems are in.
The state of the country is at stake (immigration, gun control, voting rights, abortion, healthcare, pathway to citizenship, etc) and you want to throw that all away for not a moral victory, but a moral attempt.
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Quinnipiac Dem WH poll
Biden 30%
Sanders 19%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 7%
O'Rourke 3%
Booker 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Ryan 1%
Yang 1%
Few things scare old white people quite as much as cancer. Gotta keep his base alive!
Everything is no different from January but the Warren and Buttigieg gains and Beto losses.
Once again there's that presumption that not impeaching Trump is the safer option, that autodidact told me nobody was presuming
What makes you think that failing to hold this administration accountable is going to ensure electoral victory?
Nobody in this thread was presuming it was the safer option. Our point was that if you do believe not impeaching him is safer - which Pelosi might - of course you'll refrain because you don't want to jeopardize your majority and give the GOP control again. I said it was a logical thought process even if you disagreed with it, but some people can't get past their blind anger and admit even that much.
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If polling looks like that a year from now, woof. Biden's got the electability argument down better than anyone else.
Adding 11 points to Clinton's margin (for a +13) universally would get the Democrat 413 electoral votes btw. Obama 2012 + TX, GA, AZ, NC and NE-2.
Poll: Black voters favor Biden, consumed by pocketbook issues ahead of 2020
But I thought his masterful deal with Mexico won him 2020?
We still have about 20 more foot in mouth biden moments and a right wing smear campaign strong enough to break through into the mainstream before then. I'm still worried Biden has the most ammo for them to use.
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Yeah, obviously we're still far out. However I don't think their smear campaign is going to work as well as it did against Clinton, even if the nominee is Biden. Biden's foot-in-mouth moments often come off as more endearing to supporters and he hasn't been targeted for thirty years the way Clinton has.
Warren leading as well is nice, though.
It's not merely a presumption for me to tell you swing voters arent interested in holding dems accountable soley based on a lack of movement on impeachment. As I stated before, the metrics back that.
What makes you think the recently proven strategy of attacking republicans on issues that have massive popularity is not going to get swing voters to show up? What makes you think a swing voter who repeatedly says Trump is a criminal who committed obstruction but isnt worth chasing at the expense of their personal gain is going to be swayed by moral fantasies? If anything is to be labeled as a presumptuous its any argument based on morals. Especially as we laugh at Biden's moral stumping.
Also, keep in mind that Biden's shortcomings (loose lips, foot-in-mouth) are also Trump's weaknesses.
Might hurt in the primary, but in the general it doesn't really matter.
Might hurt in the primary, but in the general it doesn't really matter.
Yes, they are, and have been -- that presumption is implicit in the decision to not impeach, because it's literally the only possible reason to not impeach, unless of course House Dems don't think Trump has done anything impeachable. I don't know why you can't admit that people in these threads are presuming not impeaching is the safer option. As far as Pelosi's logical thought process, if it's based on a faulty assumption, then the logic from that point forward is not really all that relevant. You may want to say here that means we don't know one way or the other -- yes, I know, that's the exact point I'm making! We don't know, so the incredibly uncertain political calculus should not be outweighing the moral, ethical, and constitutional obligations that Congress has. I know you agree with impeachment generally, I'm not trying to convince you of that. I'm saying that to Not Impeach is also a choice, and it's one that can only be based on political cowardice. That doesn't sit well with me, so yeah, I'm angry. Why wouldn't you be angry at this sorry state of affairs? That anger is what won us the house in 2018.
There's no reason you can't do both impeachment proceedings and attacking Republicans on the issues. In fact, they go hand-in-hand -- government corruption and the whole "game is rigged" thing was exactly was one of Trump's primary messages to move swing voters. Making that argument with evidence of the widespread, non-stop corruption of the Trump administration should be a huge part of the campaign messaging along with things like healthcare, education, and so on. As far as those polls, it's hard to glean how much people are saying Trump shouldn't be impeached because they too are worried about the political calculus involved, and not their personal opinion on it. What we do know is that Mueller merely reading out text from his own report bumped impeachment favorables up several points. What we also know is that the vast majority of people do not know what was in the report at all. Even if impeachment proceedings merely involved the report being read out loud by Mueller, it would be a valuable service to the country. Otherwise you let Republicans set the narrative, AGAIN, on the report -- that it found no collusion, no obstruction, that Mueller couldn't find anything, that Democrats want a "do-over," and so on and so forth.
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Wouldn't their "pocketbook issues" be more alleviated by a more socialist candidate?
Biden's just gonna serve the rich.
I ended up watching on my phone. They mentioned this one guy who's planning to vote for Trump, and he said:
"I vote for someone who's going to protect and defend the Constitution.... and tell us the truth."
What in the fuck? People like him must be living in the same alternate reality as Trump does.
I think this is an extremely bad way to look at it strategically. "Both sides" is literally the only way Trump can win reelection, and is going to be the core of the right's reelection strategy. They know they're not going to make people who dislike Trump change their minds, but they can get people to think the alternative is even worse. If you cede ground until everything looks like a tie, Trump will win by default as the incumbent.
My interpretation has always been that AA voters--particularly older voters--want a sure thing more than they want their wish-list punched. There is also some residual good feelings for Biden from his time on Obama's admin.
He wasn't. It was Rahm. We didn't get as much done as we should have during the only window we had.
They're not hearing any different from Democrats. It's like that woman quoted however long ago saying she had no idea there was anything bad in the Mueller Report. If you let them sit in the conservative news bubble and don't even try to puncture it, Republicans get to set the narrative by default.
Jabin Botsford
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@jabinbotsford
"the Government of Mexico will take all necessary steps under domestic law to bring the agreement into force with a view to ensuring that the agreement will enter into force within 45 days." @realDonaldTrump #Mexico agreement. Second photo flipped @washingtonpost @postpolitics
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14:19 - 11 Jun 2019 · The White House
I think you've extrapolated a lot. I'm merely talking about this specific weakness.
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I think it's across the board, beyond the foot in mouth thing.
He calls trump racist, they bring up Strom Thurman, he calls him sexist and they bring up creepy joe clips, he calls trump corrupt, they bring up his Ukraine clip, he calls trump a warmonger, they bring up his Iraq war vote, he calls his tax cuts a gift to the rich, they bring up his role in the 2009 bank bailouts.
This is the problem with centrism as an electoral strategy. It makes it very hard to attack anything without it turning into "both sides".
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Kansas' 2020 Democratic primary will be using ranked choice voting
Kansas' primary is pretty late in the game (May 2) so it might not matter too much in terms of who the nominee will be, but it's still interesting.
Kansas' primary is pretty late in the game (May 2) so it might not matter too much in terms of who the nominee will be, but it's still interesting.
I do concede that Biden is the only dem candidate who can come close to splitting white voters.
It is definitely early but a poll against an incumbent President—especially with Trump's calcified approvals—is a lot more useful than head-to-heads in the middle of two primaries.
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