US PoliEra 2020 |OT6| I will not be closing this thread when the second wave hits.
- Thread starter TheHunter
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Not to Trump's base. They see themselves in that ugly swing.
. that and the DNC had false polling data that showed her up and someone convinced them to not campaign in rust belt....
which cost the election.
everyone needs to fucking vote. I dont care if it says were gonna win by 70% every vote counts.
Im trying my best to get everyone registered and get signed up for absentees in ohio.
Cause were gonna flip ohio blue.
I vastly prefer Clinton to Biden, but this really makes me wish Biden had run in 2016 as the nominee.
I've was never worried about them winning the messaging war because since the age of Trump began they simply can't help but show their true colors. The old GOP excelled at saying the loud part as quietly as possible to allow for plausible deniability.
I'm inclined to agree. Tens of thousands of people would be alive today if Trump didn't spend the most consequential weeks of the pandemic lying about it and doing nothing. People still refusing to vote at this point are beyond reaching. And given the provenly shit political instincts of a certain segment of the very online crowd, maybe that doesn't matter!
I am not talking about Hillary or her campaign. The discussion was the relative ease we on this forum (and maybe Hillary supporters in general) felt versus the unease we feel now and how these feelings are inversely proportional to the respective polling. After the four previous elections touting Michigan and Pennsylvania as swing states and seeing the margins only grow from Gore to Kerry to Obama, the general feeling among this board was that those states were locks. I am sure you can point out plenty of posters who did calls those states out as vulnerable or people like Michael Moore. But in general, people added those to the Hillary column and that was one of many reasons that many had false sense of ease.
He's not a banned source but he is a grifter. My personal -- not staff, mind you -- opinion is that we should be avoiding posting #RESISTGrifters, but that's just me.
Regarding the discussion on M4A vs public option maybe a German perspective is interesting since we sort of have a public option. It all works a bit differently bc while we have private hospitals they are working on a sort of tariff like system. That being said as a socdem I was always a big supporter of an NHS style solution and the abolishment of the private option. Reasons:
- two class medicine because tarriffs are higher for private patients they get prefered treatment, quicker appointments etc. I know, I'm privately insured (civil servant, complex issue but basically I would pay more than double to have less service being publically insured)
- Inefficiencies because of unneeded competition between insurers (spiritual crap like homeopathy is covered because there is a lot of demand and insurers don't want to fall behind etc.)
And a couple of other reasons.
That being said although our framework is there to support an NHS and there are popular supporters we still haven't been able to change the system yet. My point being, these things take time, there is a lot of reluctancy towards change within a lot of people because they (maybe rightfully) fear they personally get less for more money. For me that would be okay because it's better for the economy as a whole but yeah. Seeing the US system I can't see a shift towards M4A being supported by the majority of people since the status quo is still a long way from enabling such a system. This is a long game and imo can only be won via salami tactics.
- two class medicine because tarriffs are higher for private patients they get prefered treatment, quicker appointments etc. I know, I'm privately insured (civil servant, complex issue but basically I would pay more than double to have less service being publically insured)
- Inefficiencies because of unneeded competition between insurers (spiritual crap like homeopathy is covered because there is a lot of demand and insurers don't want to fall behind etc.)
And a couple of other reasons.
That being said although our framework is there to support an NHS and there are popular supporters we still haven't been able to change the system yet. My point being, these things take time, there is a lot of reluctancy towards change within a lot of people because they (maybe rightfully) fear they personally get less for more money. For me that would be okay because it's better for the economy as a whole but yeah. Seeing the US system I can't see a shift towards M4A being supported by the majority of people since the status quo is still a long way from enabling such a system. This is a long game and imo can only be won via salami tactics.
Clinton probably would have beaten him in the primaries, though.
This was polled. Extensively. Hillary was clobbering him.
Hillary was extremely well-liked among the Democratic base.
She did, but I believe she mainly just campaigned in just PGH/Philly and while those are the biggest areas of PA, there were enough people of the rest of the state that she ignored that came out for Trump (and/or enough people in the PGH/Philly area didn't vote).
I'm curious to see if Biden being born in Scranton, PA will make a difference...
Yeah. It took decades of smears, Benghazi, "But her emails", and a brush of overconfidence to stop Hillary. And then she also had to deal with the fact that she was a woman.
She also really only campaigned in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
Her campaign put way too much energy into just focusing on the major urban centers of Pennsylvania when she should've been focused on trying to shore up -- as much as possible -- the vote in the Scranton area and the Lehigh Valley along with the Philly and PGH burbs. And Driftless and Macomb-ish areas if we're talking bigger than PA.
Obviously part of this is not just her. At some level, there is not a lot she could've done in these instances because these are international trends that have nothing to do with candidate-specific qualities and were partly inevitable. And she wasn't helped by the Comey letter -- which, the content didn't matter per se, but it was more about "Hillary did a bad thing" right before the election that activated people's preconceived notion of her. But it didn't have to be AS much of a crushing loss.
This is where I've sort of come to -- any transition to M4A for us (which, I wholeheartedly support) is going to require some sort of German-like system first. The first step, at least now that Bernie and Warren are not the Democratic nominees, is creating as robust of a public option as possible to start to suffocate private health insurance. And auto-enrolling all newborns within the public option (which I believe is a CAP plan, of all places).
Hillary was up 8 points against a hypothetical Biden candidacy in September 2015. Also behind in favorability by 10 points.
Hillary Clinton's lead over Biden and Sanders slips among Democrats, poll says
Bloomberg poll finds Clinton with 33% support, while vice-president wins over a quarter of respondents despite not having declared he is running
www.theguardian.com
I personally agree that she might have beaten him in the primary, I just meant it's unfortunate that Biden might have meant keeping the White House because this country hates successful women.
This is a great post, thanks for the insight.
I don't know if linking to old threads and posts from GAF is against rules but I like to point people to This post and the links I had and conversation from those same threads. People were absolutely delusional back then about his rise and risk it has to the general election.
MOD EDIT: Please don't post links to banned sources.
MOD EDIT: Please don't post links to banned sources.
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I cringe looking back at 2016 posts.
It's why I also just am not going to relax until Wolf Blitzer calls Biden the next president of the United States.
I feel like Biden would've ended up beating Hillary in SC thus winning the rest of the primary. Obama VP + male chromosomes too much to counter. Crime bill would've been a massive topic.
Black women liked Hillary bc of her Bill connection and well Obama VP is a stronger connection.
Black women liked Hillary bc of her Bill connection and well Obama VP is a stronger connection.
Had a conversation with a family friend who told me that if Biden doesn't pick a Latina running mate, their whole family will be sitting out the election in November. Said they are tired of not seeing Hispanic representation on presidential tickets and will gladly sit out this election to make a statement. I mean, I'm tired of the lack of representation as well but what can ya do? As much as I would like to see Cortez-Masto or Lujan-Grisham, they just don't have the profile that's needed right now.
Basically
also people likely don't immediately dismiss pending FBI investigation she was under if there was a non Bernie option to go to
Yeah, FBI investigation would've ended her. Biden's campaign wouldn't have as... hands off about it as Bernie was.
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The platform for the Libertarian VP
I have to get a permit for my explosives?
I thought this was America.
Super represented by white collar and independent wealthy?
The more surprising ones imo are those Midwest and mountain states holding so well. Esp MO and NE.
I guess maybe point out how many Latinos are in the party locally and nationally? The VP slot is actually like the least important spot to even think about.
No thank you. I'd rather we keep our current system. I've helped a friend getting therapy from the NHS. And it was such a shitshow that she went private instead. I got a 5 year psychoanalysis without any trouble here in Germany. Not to mention what happens to trans people trying to get help from the NHS. Who actually try to get private practices kicked out for providing care in this field.
Even more importantly our system is way harder to defund than the centralized NHS style. Considering the British experience I'd consider that a significant advantage.
Michigan's still in a rut from 09. Whitmer has a ton of work to repair shit there and it seems like it's gonna take a good amount of time.
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They should use the photos of him taken far away this weekend to highlight that they are trying to hide it. Just that one photo with a counter that starts at 0 in the background or superimposed on the photo along with audio of Trump denying the pandemic/telling people to inject bleach/other Trump covid19 hijinks. And then end the ad with the counter continuously going up past 100,000 as the death toll rises. That's it.
Simple and effective.
edit: just saw the other ad. Yup that's what I like to see.
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I'm in CT. That chart isn't telling the whole story.
20% of the state's GDP is in the service sector. This sector accounts for 48% of the state's unemployment claims.
Still, some service employees got paid via PPP funds and weren't yet furloughed.
However, since April the hospital system in my town furloughed 375 people. Subway's corporate headquarters in CT laid off 100. More have come and will come, though the overall numbers will stay somewhat lower for now since over 1400 businesses reopened for outdoor dining, curbside pickup, etc. on May 20.
But right now the food bank lines in Fairfield County are already crazy long. If the food bank lines are this long at 7.9% unemployment at the end of April, June is going to go very badly.
20% of the state's GDP is in the service sector. This sector accounts for 48% of the state's unemployment claims.
Still, some service employees got paid via PPP funds and weren't yet furloughed.
However, since April the hospital system in my town furloughed 375 people. Subway's corporate headquarters in CT laid off 100. More have come and will come, though the overall numbers will stay somewhat lower for now since over 1400 businesses reopened for outdoor dining, curbside pickup, etc. on May 20.
But right now the food bank lines in Fairfield County are already crazy long. If the food bank lines are this long at 7.9% unemployment at the end of April, June is going to go very badly.
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Newsom announced something similar in California a couple weeks back so it's not just limited to PA. Will use the UC labs as the training ground too, iirc. I admit that Wolf's plan has a pretty snazzy name, though. Hopefully it catches on in other states.
If those states cancel their elections for Nov, it just means that the other states that continue to hold their election then will end up deciding the presidency for them, IIRC. Someone correct me if I'm wrong though.
Also from CT, and yeah, it's a time bomb that will blow up next month. Not the same bomb that will likely go off in these red states, but an economic one for sure.
OP
OP
So I take it you don't want to read the Krassensteins newest children's book? :P
The squirrel Twitter should also be avoided at all costs as it's one I still see people posting.
In Fairfield County too, did not know the food bank situation was like that. This is gonna be a hard summer for those who are less fortunate, and I wish they had a federal gov that cared about their wellbeing.
With the new revelations about Tara Reade, I don't think it would be a good idea to talk about the idea of removing Biden off the nomination considering the recent revelations that put Reade's credibility at rock bottom.
Not that it's wrong to believe Reade when it comes to the Allegations but speaking up about the subject when some pretty bad stuff about her just came up that is pretty damaging is not really a great idea.
Not that it's wrong to believe Reade when it comes to the Allegations but speaking up about the subject when some pretty bad stuff about her just came up that is pretty damaging is not really a great idea.
Another thing to point out is that CT has a VERY large population that works in the financial sector like myself. Banking, financial planning and analysis.
That's also a ticking time bomb as many of these banks have lost 50% or more of their revenue since March. CT is going to see a big spike come Q4 with layoffs.
That's also a ticking time bomb as many of these banks have lost 50% or more of their revenue since March. CT is going to see a big spike come Q4 with layoffs.
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