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Saucycarpdog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
16,580
Joe Biden is the candidate of Other People. While there have been candidates in the past who made similar arguments about electability, in recent history we haven't seen a front-runner for whom his supposed appeal to the other party was so central to his campaign. His support in polls neither grows nor shrinks, but he remains the Democrat about whom it is most often said that he has the best chance to persuade Republicans to vote for him.

Which raises a set of questions Democrats will have to answer as we approach the first votes of the primaries, a little over a month away. Can Biden actually do that? Can any Democrat? And should the possibility of converting some Republican voters be so important that it stands atop all other considerations in picking a nominee?
This is not a question that emerges out of nowhere; at one Biden event after another, an ally gets up onstage and tells the assembled voters that what they think of the former vice president is less important than what Republicans might think. "I have a lot of family, a lot of friends, I have people in this audience today that are Republicans," one Biden surrogate says. "They will vote for Joe Biden and that's how he wins this next election." At one point, Biden's own wife told voters that "maybe you have to swallow a little bit" and vote for him even if you like another candidate better, because he'll win over independents and Republicans.
To be sure, there are some number of Republicans who are dissatisfied enough with President Trump to be open to voting for a Democrat. But there were also a good number of Republicans in 2016 who said the same thing, and in the end it didn't happen. They were pulled back to vote for Trump by the power of partisan loyalty: Even though it was not some kind of mystery who Trump was, 92 percent of Republicans voted for him. That was virtually unchanged from 2012, when 93 percent of Republicans voted for Mitt Romney.

It's also important to remember that whoever the Democratic nominee is, those Republican voters will be absolutely bombarded with messages meant to enforce party loyalty, coming not just from Trump but also from every Republican they respect and admire. Joe Biden is a villain, a liar, a crook, they'll be told, and he'd turn America into a socialist hellscape. A vote for him would be a betrayal of your party, your country, and everything you hold dear.
Biden might be that candidate, but looking over his career I see reason for skepticism. Many Democrats are supporting him at the moment because of how they think Republicans will react to him at the end of what will be an utterly brutal general-election campaign. At that point, there will be no hypothetical or imagined open-minded Republicans, only real ones. Counting on them to vote for a Democrat isn't a safe choice. It's a gamble — one that might pay off, but not one with any guarantees.
Thought this opinion piece deserved a thread since it hits on the main narrative about Biden's electability. His supposed appeal to moderate Democrats and conservatives is what his campaign is banking on going into the primaries.
 

Commedieu

Banned
Nov 11, 2017
15,025
Thought this opinion piece deserved a thread since it hits on the main narrative about Biden's electability. His supposed appeal to moderate Democrats and conservatives is what his campaign is banking on going into the primaries.

That much is painfully obvious. We need another party comprised of people that have a dog in the fight. Democrats aren't fucking it. If you're on the fence with fascism, i don't know what else to say.

What the fuck ever. The world is changing.
 

WillyFive

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
6,989
Biden's (and Pete's) strategy has been clear, getting Republicans who otherwise hate Trump to have a safe-ish Republican-lite as an alternative.

He knows it won't get him fans from the left, but if he survives to the nomination, he could win.
 
Oct 25, 2017
6,033
Milwaukee, WI
The man in the white house lost the popular vote. I do not understand this appeal to centrism for the sake of "electability" No one is interested in, shy of bill clinton, a diet republican
 
Sep 14, 2019
3,042
I've become so stressed and full of anxiety over politics that I'm just going to try and tune out everything until November.

I literally get close to having an anxiety attack every time there a debate...

... The caffeine probably doesn't help...
 

JABEE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,904
Please vote for Bernie Sanders in the Primary. Primary politics is a zero-sum game and Sanders needs to win on the first vote.

Appealing to Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs while losing progressive voters is an ancient strategy that doesn't work and lost in 2016.

Sanders will bring about real change and is inspiring a grassroots campaign which exists outside of the electoral process.

It will live into a Sanders Presidency and mark American politics for good.
 
Oct 25, 2017
3,428
Ironically I think even Sanders might be more appealing to Republicans (and people who know me know I'm not a Sanders fan). The Democratic establishment isn't exactly who I think of when I think "appealing to Republicans".
 

JABEE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,904
Ironically I think even Sanders might be more appealing to Republicans. The Democratic establishment isn't exactly who I think of when I think "appealing to Republicans".
This is true, but he is doing so by way of his policy stances being uniformly popular. He isn't changing or appealing to their worst sensibilities. He is appealing to humanity and a common struggle among workers. People are welcome to come along for the ride.
 

Doober

Banned
Jun 10, 2018
4,295
Biden appeals to a large swath of the country that the Twitter leftist wing of the Democratic party would rather toss in the garbage alongside Trump fans and literal nazis than form any sort of voting coalition with.

I don't necessarily like Biden, but this "burn it all down if that's what it takes to deny him the nomination," thing is insane. President Biden isn't the big bad of this season.
 

Tamanon

Member
Oct 25, 2017
19,804
Biden is a good bridge between the white working class and the black working class right now. We will see if a more appealing candidate establishes themselves, but that's a winning combo.
 

Kcannon

Member
Oct 30, 2017
5,676
As long as this is their tactic, the youth will remain unreliable.

I don't think I've ever seen youth being reliable in any country where voting isn't mandatory. Meanwhile, older people are always involved.

It's only now that they're starting to get more into politics, but otherwise they prefer to remain to the side.
 

Inuhanyou

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
14,214
New Jersey
Biden's entire campaign is based on him simply existing in the Obama administration, and a built in assumption that in the general, Democratic voters will easily be taken for granted in order to win the megan mccains of the world, instead of the younger voters or convincing voters who have given up on the process to vote through real reasons(IE far more realistic options for expanding the democratic vote against GOP)

Essentially, its an acknowledgement of the overton window shifting in the democratic establishment. they are moderate republicans and belive they have democratic party voters held in chains sufficiently because of how insane the GOP has become to allow them to openly wave that flag.

Of course, as Biden has said, they are banking on convincing people that Trump is an anomaly. Get him out and everything is "back to normal". That's the real goal, to sell people on the status quo for as long as possible.


Its also true that there will be plenty of people who are self defeatists and think this strategy is a winning one, despite losing in 2016 and countless races 2010 through 2015. Even if it were a winning one, does it even matter if the win itself largely is canceled out by pretty much everything else?

If your not playing to advance people's interests, your not playing for anything but to say you won, and if that's the case, for how long does a strategy like that continue to exist in the face of the right wing only growing more and more powerful over it?

If Biden were to hypothetically win by being a republican, and governs as a republican, sharing beers and capitulating to them at every turn under the guise of "bipartisanship" then congratulations, you have essentially just become someone who supports republicans, even if you say your a democrat
 
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Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
The man in the white house lost the popular vote. I do not understand this appeal to centrism for the sake of "electability" No one is interested in, shy of bill clinton, a diet republican
Because of our electoral college system.

We do not have one general election for the presidency every four years in November. We have 50 individual ones. For better or for worse, each modern presidential election is decided by a handful of states.

Unironically Ive come around to the idea that Sanders will actually fareas well as Biden in the general. It's all about personality in the general, whic is unfortunate for Warren or most women in the Democratic field. It doesnt help that these same handful of states are sexist af.
 
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Josh378

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,539
Real question is that can Biden make hard left voters go to the polls in 2020 to vote for him if he wins over Warren and Bernie?
 

Chaos Legion

The Wise Ones
Member
Oct 30, 2017
16,967
Please vote for Bernie Sanders in the Primary.
No, he's not even in my top 5 primary choices. Thank you very much.

Sanders will bring about real change


This is an opinion article written by someone who clearly is upset that Democratic party isn't as progressive as they are. Biden is a boring safe choice. That's his appeal. People care more about uniting the country and politics not being forced upon them on a daily occasion as with Trump's administration. Biden appeals to those people.
 
Oct 29, 2017
6,320
Its also true that there will be plenty of people who are self defeatists and think this strategy is a winning one, despite losing in 2016 and countless races 2010 through 2015. Even if it were a winning one, does it even matter if the win itself largely is canceled out by pretty much everything else?

If your not playing to advance people's interests, your not playing for anything but to say you won, and if that's the case, for how long does a strategy like that continue to exist in the face of the right wing only growing more and more powerful over it?

The entire decade has been a showcase of how fragile and risky that "pick off moderates at all costs" strategy is for Democrats. And how party leaders would rather stick with it to maintain their own positions than do anything different, even if changing would improve their odds.

Their laser focus on catering to upper middle class professionals and wavering Republicans allowed a billionaire charlatan like Trump to present himself as a champion of the working man--and actually get away with it.
 

CrabDust

Member
Nov 16, 2017
1,257
Bidens campaign isnt about appealing to trump voters, its about winning Pennsylvania Michigan Arizona Minnesota maybe NC. He may not drive the populist crowds but he appeals to voters in those areas and is promising a return to relative normalcy. There have been 2 elections in 16 years decided constitutionally rather than democratically.
 

KtotheRoc

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 27, 2017
56,814
Planning of voting for Warren in the primary, but fully expecting to have to vote for Biden next November.
 

hurlex

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,143
People are so shook from 2016 that it is clouding their judgement. The reality is that Trump is hated by the majority of Americans and his base isn't enough to win.

I think basically any Dem is going to win. Bernie might scare away some moderates but he would pick up enough of the youth vote so it doesn't matter. Basically same goes for Biden but in reverse.

Dems should pick who they want the best instead of deluding themselves into thinking they know what Republicans are going to do.
 

dabig2

Member
Oct 29, 2017
5,116
The entire decade has been a showcase of how fragile and risky that "pick off moderates at all costs" strategy is for Democrats. And how party leaders would rather stick with it to maintain their own positions than do anything different, even if changing would improve their odds.

Their laser focus on catering to upper middle class professionals and wavering Republicans allowed a billionaire charlatan like Trump to present himself as a champion of the working man--and actually get away with it.

And it'll allow the next fascist despot to rise from the GOP trash heap to do the same. 'Normalcy' is how we ended up here. Trump isn't abnormal, he's a creation of the system moderates desperately want to go back to.

The center cannot hold.
 

ZeroDotFlow

Member
Oct 27, 2017
928
The youth won't even show up for people they supposedly like, otherwise Biden wouldn't be winning and aforementioned tactics wouldn't be used
The youth is often too busy trying to survive and can't lose their job to go out and vote.

That's part of the reason why we haven't made election day a mandatory holiday yet because only retirees voting is a feature, not a bug.
 

BADMAN

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,887
No, he's not even in my top 5 primary choices. Thank you very much.




This is an opinion article written by someone who clearly is upset that Democratic party isn't as progressive as they are. Biden is a boring safe choice. That's his appeal. People care more about uniting the country and politics not being forced upon them on a daily occasion as with Trump's administration. Biden appeals to those people.

If Sanders isn't in your top 5 then you must not care much for working class people.
 

Titik

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,490
Anyway policy doesn't really matter much in the general election. Personality of your candidate against theirs matter more. Unfortunately.

It's the 'who can you have a beer' test.
 
Oct 27, 2017
7,741
The entire decade has been a showcase of how fragile and risky that "pick off moderates at all costs" strategy is for Democrats. And how party leaders would rather stick with it to maintain their own positions than do anything different, even if changing would improve their odds.

Their laser focus on catering to upper middle class professionals and wavering Republicans allowed a billionaire charlatan like Trump to present himself as a champion of the working man--and actually get away with it.
This is the real problem. A global economy puts middle and executive management and investors front and center, while ignoring the working class. Trump is what you get when you ignore the working class. The left is going to lose until policy and messaging are front and center, realistic, and focused on their needs, as they are about 60 percent of the population.

We really need someone like Bernie in terms of vision and messaging, but someone like Warren for technical implementation.
 

Baji Boxer

Chicken Chaser
Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,393
If Biden is the best we can do (and he probably will win), we're pretty much fucked going forward, over the mid/long term.
 

SNRUB

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,021
New Jersey
I'd rather it be Bernie or Warren but if it's Biden, then so be it. I need whatever it takes to make me sleep at night.
 

Dekim

Member
Oct 28, 2017
4,337
I fully expect Biden to win in 2020 and a more competent Trump 2.0 to beat him in 2024. Any gains made by a Biden Admin will be wiped out in 2025.
 

Aaron

I’m seeing double here!
Member
Oct 25, 2017
18,077
Minneapolis
Biden's entire campaign is based on him simply existing in the Obama administration, and a built in assumption that in the general, Democratic voters will easily be taken for granted in order to win the megan mccains of the world, instead of the younger voters or convincing voters who have given up on the process to vote through real reasons(IE far more realistic options for expanding the democratic vote against GOP)

Essentially, its an acknowledgement of the overton window shifting in the democratic establishment. they are moderate republicans and belive they have democratic party voters held in chains sufficiently because of how insane the GOP has become to allow them to openly wave that flag.

Of course, as Biden has said, they are banking on convincing people that Trump is an anomaly. Get him out and everything is "back to normal". That's the real goal, to sell people on the status quo for as long as possible.


Its also true that there will be plenty of people who are self defeatists and think this strategy is a winning one, despite losing in 2016 and countless races 2010 through 2015. Even if it were a winning one, does it even matter if the win itself largely is canceled out by pretty much everything else?

If your not playing to advance people's interests, your not playing for anything but to say you won, and if that's the case, for how long does a strategy like that continue to exist in the face of the right wing only growing more and more powerful over it?

If Biden were to hypnotically win by being a republican, and governs as a republican, sharing beers and capitulating to them at every turn under the guise of "bipartisanship" then congratulations, you have essentially just become someone who supports republicans, even if you say your a democrat
Biden's (and Buttigieg, the other moderate) platform is significantly to the left of what Obama ran on in 2008

Healthcare said:
Biden/Buttigieg: Achieve at least 97 percent health care coverage via a public option open to everyone, including those with employer-sponsored insurance. Increase subsidies by tying them to Obamacare's more comprehensive "gold" level plans and capping premiums at a maximum of 8.5 percent of income, no matter your income.

Obama 2008: Expand Medicaid to 133 percent of the poverty line, offer subsidies for private insurance up to 400 percent of the poverty line, and offer a public plan to those ineligible for employer coverage, Medicaid, or Medicare. Notably, while the 2020 candidates focus rhetorically on expanding Medicare, Obama focused rhetorically on access to private insurance.
Climate change said:
Biden/Buttigieg: Invest between $1.5 and $2 trillion in federal funding over the next decade to push the US toward a 100 percent clean energy economy and hit net-zero emissions by 2050.

Obama 2008: Invest $150 billion (funded by passing the cap-and-trade bill) in clean energy research over the next decade to reduce emissions 80 percent by 2050. Notably, Obama's plan called for increasing domestic production of oil and gas in the short-term.
Immigration said:
Biden: Reverse Trump administration's toughest anti-immigrant policies, increase the number of refugees the US admits to 125,000 annually, reinstate DACA, and provide a path to citizenship for all undocumented immigrants currently living in the US.

Obama 2008: Fund additional personnel, infrastructure, and technology to "secure our borders," increase penalties on employers who hire undocumented immigrants, create a "responsible" path to citizenship for the undocumented immigrants who learn English and pay fines. Even this summary, though, doesn't quite do justice to the difference in rhetoric: Obama's plan is framed in terms of an enforcement-first approach, noting that the "undocumented population is exploding" and "immigration raids only netted 4,600 arrests in 2007."
Criminal justice said:
Biden/Buttigieg: Eliminate mandatory minimum sentences for nonviolent crimes, end the federal death penalty, abolish federal private prisons, get rid of cash bail, and either decriminalize (Biden) or legalize (Buttigieg) marijuana.

Obama 2008: While the Obama platform didn't even have a specific "criminal justice" platform, it did offer to expand the use of drug courts, work to ban racial profiling, and reduce racial sentencing disparities. When asked about the issue during a 2008 debate, Obama raised his hand to declare that he opposed decriminalizing marijuana. He also supported the death penalty for "some crimes."
Higher education said:
Biden/Buttigieg: Make four-year public university tuition free for at least 80% of American families (Buttigieg) or make community colleges completely tuition free (Biden).

Obama 2008: Create a new American Opportunity Tax Credit to ensure that the first $4,000 of a college education is completely free for most Americans (in exchange for 100 hours of public service per year).
Student debt said:
Biden/Buttigieg: Biden would reduce the student debt burden by implementing income-based payment programs that cap payments at 5 percent of discretionary income (Buttigieg's plan looks similar, but is vaguer on numbers). Buttigieg would cancel debt from predatory for-profit institutions. Both would automatically forgive all remaining debt after 20 years.

2008 Obama: No plan available.
So yeah I'd agree there has been a shift in the overton window within the Democratic establishment.

Only Biden simply being elected without the composition of Congress changing would be a return to the negative status quo of Obama's final years in office, when Republicans in Congress were able to obstruct and hold everything hostage in order to drive down Obama's approval ratings (and peoples' faith in government along with those). Given the power of the executive branch (where Trump has caused the most immediate - and reversible - damage), this would still be an improvement.

But as far as meaningful, legislative change? Biden with a Democratic Congress (which, as a reminder, would still contain Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, now in the majority party) could get that.

I'm not saying I agree with everything Biden stands for. I'm not voting for him in the primary. Suggesting that supporting Biden is the same as supporting the Republicans is ignorant hyperbole.
 

MPrice

Alt account
Banned
Oct 18, 2019
654
If Biden is the best we can do (and he probably will win), we're pretty much fucked going forward, over the mid/long term.

Biden isn't the best. He's just the one with the best chance of winning today. The democratic field is loaded with prospects. Its the Republicans who have absolutely no one else besides Trump.