Joe Biden is the candidate of Other People. While there have been candidates in the past who made similar arguments about electability, in recent history we haven't seen a front-runner for whom his supposed appeal to the other party was so central to his campaign. His support in polls neither grows nor shrinks, but he remains the Democrat about whom it is most often said that he has the best chance to persuade Republicans to vote for him.
Which raises a set of questions Democrats will have to answer as we approach the first votes of the primaries, a little over a month away. Can Biden actually do that? Can any Democrat? And should the possibility of converting some Republican voters be so important that it stands atop all other considerations in picking a nominee?
This is not a question that emerges out of nowhere; at one Biden event after another, an ally gets up onstage and tells the assembled voters that what they think of the former vice president is less important than what Republicans might think. "I have a lot of family, a lot of friends, I have people in this audience today that are Republicans," one Biden surrogate says. "They will vote for Joe Biden and that's how he wins this next election." At one point, Biden's own wife told voters that "maybe you have to swallow a little bit" and vote for him even if you like another candidate better, because he'll win over independents and Republicans.
To be sure, there are some number of Republicans who are dissatisfied enough with President Trump to be open to voting for a Democrat. But there were also a good number of Republicans in 2016 who said the same thing, and in the end it didn't happen. They were pulled back to vote for Trump by the power of partisan loyalty: Even though it was not some kind of mystery who Trump was, 92 percent of Republicans voted for him. That was virtually unchanged from 2012, when 93 percent of Republicans voted for Mitt Romney.
It's also important to remember that whoever the Democratic nominee is, those Republican voters will be absolutely bombarded with messages meant to enforce party loyalty, coming not just from Trump but also from every Republican they respect and admire. Joe Biden is a villain, a liar, a crook, they'll be told, and he'd turn America into a socialist hellscape. A vote for him would be a betrayal of your party, your country, and everything you hold dear.
Thought this opinion piece deserved a thread since it hits on the main narrative about Biden's electability. His supposed appeal to moderate Democrats and conservatives is what his campaign is banking on going into the primaries.Biden might be that candidate, but looking over his career I see reason for skepticism. Many Democrats are supporting him at the moment because of how they think Republicans will react to him at the end of what will be an utterly brutal general-election campaign. At that point, there will be no hypothetical or imagined open-minded Republicans, only real ones. Counting on them to vote for a Democrat isn't a safe choice. It's a gamble — one that might pay off, but not one with any guarantees.