I am assuming that it will eventually be about a year. Maybe day and date with service games. We might be a few years away from that happening but that's where I think the releases schedule will eventually land.
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Xbox Game Studios + Bethesda + ABK |OT30| Why So Series X|S?
- Thread starter Andrei Rublev
- Start date
- Microsoft OT
I am assuming that it will eventually be about a year. Maybe day and date with service games. We might be a few years away from that happening but that's where I think the releases schedule will eventually land.
I would love to get into it but It has some weird stutters here and there on Series S that's really annoying me, unfortunately.
Lol. No worries. Finished botany without any googling so I count that as a win. o haven't played a ton of them though. Maybe it's just that there aren't a lot of them. I did play the Witness though. Didn't gel with me like Botany or escape academy.
Honestly, I don't even care about exclusives. I buy into Xbox because I like the controller, because I have an existing library and also because I like Game Pass and the general way the services work. Like, I know that conceptually, exclusives matter, hell, I have my PS5 because of exclusives, but ultimately as long as Game Pass is a thing that's providing me significant value, I think I'm going to keep buying Xbox systems.
I mean hell, with my play time on both my Xbox and my Playstation, first party exclusives have barely been any of my play time. Most of my play time on both systems have been multiplatform games that I could have easily played on other systems at the time.
I think that when they're starting this pivot they'll try to do about a year or so of timed exclusivity, and then have multiplayer/GAAS games be day and date as time goes on.
I think Hellblade 2 will be a game to stay exclusive though. It's basically the video game version of an art house movie, even if it's successful on Xbox it's probably not going to make much money releasing later on PlayStation, all while still providing some marketing to Game Pass and Xbox. But something like Indiana Jones probably one year out from launch. Some games will be different though, like for Starfield I personally don't see that launching on PS5 until development on the game is basically done, and it and similar games would just launch as "Starfield: Complete Edition" on PS5 and into Game Pass or something, similar to Grounded.
But honestly I'm still not sure that MS is going to be going fully multiplatform. Like I'm sure they're evaluating their options and that realistically I should assume that they will, but if I had to hedge my bets I'd say that the multiplatform initiative is going to be focusing more on the library of GAAS games releasing everywhere they realistically can while not significantly changing their strategy with single-player exclusives. Some games like Hi-Fi Rush, Blade, Starfield, The Outer Worlds 2 and smaller games will arrive on other platforms here and there but ultimately I imagine they're still going to have *some* exclusives even if only to help sell Game Pass
The problem is though that releasing only some exclusives doesn't help them, because at a certain point people will just assume all those games are coming and wait, it will barely encourage anyone who isn't already encouraged. The best thing to do is just say there will be at least a year exclusivity, and use that as a incentive to get gamepass. "You can get all these games day one for a simple monthly price, or pay $70 a year later." Being obtuse and uncertain helps no one.
They need to get their messaging right and have some form of consistency, because otherwise as they make more games multiplatform, it is going to make things worst with their fanbase.
Had the same thought. Isn't Indy supposed to release? I don't know how concrete the rumor was, as all rumors should be taken with a grain of salt anyways, but I think it was rumored to eventually be multiplatform as well? Even if not, you'd expect the holiday with new games to increase, I'd argue even without a major release (unless earlier in the year had a major big title), the holidays are when sales are the highest and should increase, not decrease.
I have a feeling they will be a year out for a bit. But not for long, going into late 2025, and seeing how successful their multiplatform strategy already seems to be they will get shorter and eventually day and date.
I agree, Microsoft will eventually have to address this, or else it's going to lead to confusion, skipped sales and messy pr and interviews. The only flaw I think I can see here is the quote, "You can get all these games day one for a simple monthly price, or pay $70 a year later.". Many gamers are patient, we already see posts in topics for indy and hellblade with people saying they will wait for the inevitable PS5 version, some don't want to subscribe to a service, or won't want to buy a game individually elsewhere when majority of people especially outside of xbox's prime markets in the US/UK are on other platforms, a lot probably will already wait for a PS5/Switch 2 version. But this is Microsoft's issue to work on, who knows how they will work around it. That quote may be the best thing they can do, and if it works or doesn't.
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Maybe they are assuming if Starfield didn't move many consoles, there is no reason to think Indy will.
Remember the forecast that they give is yoy changes, 31% is kinda irrelevant. The Q4 (Apr-Jun) FY23 is what is relevant here.
Also HB2 is the only game that they are releasing in iirc in the upcoming q.
I bet Indiana Jones gets a quick turnaround to multiplatform. It being a Disney IP I can see them wanting to capitalize on other platforms.
What months do you think Q4 represents? I think you might be mixing up the months.
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Honestly that's why I think that the multiplatform stuff is going to be focused on multiplayer/GAAS games. It won't be a situation where they're only releasing "some" exclusives, it'll be a situation where they release GAAS games everywhere but then the majority of their games are still exclusive. That makes it easier to market to the masses with messaging about how multiplayer games thrive with the largest community possible or whatever, while also making it easier for players to digest that "only GAAS games from Xbox are going to other platforms consistently." Not to mention that the real money for MS comes from getting the MTX/Expansion revenue in those GAAS games. It's the people buying premium currency in Sea of Thieves, willing to buy every expansion in Age of Empires, willing to buy new armor in Halo Infinite and everything else. Expanding those games (I doubt Infinite though, Halo will wait until Halo 7) to every platform brings MS significantly more money and control without much additional risk to the platform base.
But really though, it's all just down to the marketing from Microsoft. They need to get it right because if they fumble then it's going to be catastrophic. And chances are, they're going to fumble the marketing of their pivot pretty hard and just cause a lot of uncertainty and doubt. But on the off chance that they actually clearly communicate everything and their multiplatform GAAS pivot works, then I'll be impressed
Fallout 76 is very solo play friendly (I've been playing since the beta and only play solo), but none of the vaults in it are setup as explorable "dungeons". There are lots of other underground explorable areas though.
Indiana Jones is rumored to come to PS5 early next year according to The Verge.
The 1 year gap thing many people are theorizing is not real. Microsoft is running towards day and date ASAP because they don't care about the hardware anymore.
Well the main reason why I am theorising about a year gap is that they still need to sell gamepass. They have invested so much in that and it still needs a decent amount of subscribers. Removing any period of timed exclusivity I feel hurts them too much. Maybe I am wrong however.
How is it bad if Xbox hardware averages sales of 50m per generation (which it seems on track to do with series consoles assuming 2028 is next gen), and most of their biggest games are available and sold on all platforms - which is clearly the strategy?
Isn't that better, from a business standpoint, than selling 80m consoles (xbox's best ever result) but not having access to the other markets?
Wouldn't you as Phil Spencer, trade 30m unique Xbox users, for access to the hundreds of millions of users across PC, PS and Switch for software sales and subscriptions?
That's essentially the strategy Xbox has been working towards for several years now, starting with day and date PC.
The only way Xbox might succeed in the traditional console race is if it sells PS / Switch numbers, which it's NEVER going to do, especially post digital. And even if it did manage to do this, there's still no guarantee that it's a sustainable path. Sony is dealing with this problem right now as they cant sell enough copies of their games within the PS market alone, to offset rising costs of development.
If Xbox continues to sell approx. 50m units per gen and successfully implements its multiplat strategy, it puts the brand in quite a strong position with a dedicated base and huge marketplace to sell its first party games.
Isn't that better, from a business standpoint, than selling 80m consoles (xbox's best ever result) but not having access to the other markets?
Wouldn't you as Phil Spencer, trade 30m unique Xbox users, for access to the hundreds of millions of users across PC, PS and Switch for software sales and subscriptions?
That's essentially the strategy Xbox has been working towards for several years now, starting with day and date PC.
The only way Xbox might succeed in the traditional console race is if it sells PS / Switch numbers, which it's NEVER going to do, especially post digital. And even if it did manage to do this, there's still no guarantee that it's a sustainable path. Sony is dealing with this problem right now as they cant sell enough copies of their games within the PS market alone, to offset rising costs of development.
If Xbox continues to sell approx. 50m units per gen and successfully implements its multiplat strategy, it puts the brand in quite a strong position with a dedicated base and huge marketplace to sell its first party games.
I'm with you. And with all the portings etc. it seems like Xbox will still have more exclusives in a year until at least like 2027 cuz they produce a lot. And I expect console market to shift hugely by then.
The issue is that there hardware sales keep going down. X1 was down about 30 mil from the 360. The xsx/s if it can get to 50 will be down about 8 mil. Following that trend there next Xbox might barely cross 40m
Sure, wouldn't be bad, assuming next gen sales start the same way previous gen sales start and releasing formerly exclusive games on other platforms has zero impact on Xbox sales. No one is really assuming that though since it definitely will have an impact. We don't know enough yet about MS' strategy for next gen to really make a decent prediction. If Xbox games go to Playstation and Switch day-and-date the impact will be much bigger compared to only some of those games going multiplatform and that 1+ year after their Xbox release.
Besides that, there's also a hefty opportunity cost. If MS Gaming Division is getting 90% of their revenue from software releases and only 10% out of hardware, and considering hardware development and release is quite expensive and time consuming, Microsoft will need to consider if that money going to hardware development isn't better spent going to software to up profitability.
I think you can make an argument that with the absolutely huge first party portfolio including ABK and Bethesda that Xbox is more likely to retain a dedicated hardware base in the future for digital library + game pass benefits. I think its unlikely hardware declines any further even with the multiplat strategy, given Xbox is now the biggest publisher by a long way. Xbox's content output won't be matched again, starting from this yaer, and the brand association with some of the biggest franchises in gaming will go a long way to at least maintaining the console base from the Sereis generation.
There is no game pass without Xbox hardware. It's not going anywhere.
More importantly there is no MS Store without xbox hardware currently
For the record, I don't think Xbox hardware is going anywhere. But Game Pass is for a large part limited by Xbox hardware sales and Microsoft seeing they make 2 dollar for every dollar invested in software and only 1.2 dollar for every dollar invested in hardware may change their ambitions and focus away from Game Pass and Xbox. As I was replying to someone discussing at which point hardware sales are enough for Microsoft, I'm just making the point that "just" selling 50 million Xbox's may not be enough to keep the current level of ambition in this field. And since Game Pass subscribers are rolled into software and services revenue, having the might and volume of ActiBlizz multiplatform releases may also greatly diminish the 'importantce' of Game Pass for Microsoft, especially as it's been stagnant after years of investment while third party software sales will be booming the coming years.
edit: and as a closer for this post, on a personal level, all I hope for is that Microsoft will finally unleash a marketing campaign worldwide. Having Call of Duty Day 1 releases on Game Pass exclusive on Xbox is such a powerful message, I just hope this isn't a ball they drop. Microsoft absolutely needs to emphasize that you can get all those hugely popular games through their subscription instead of paying 70 bucks for them to direct attention to Xbox hardware. But they've been investing just about zero marketing dollars in Europe. This -needs- to change and I can't for the life of me understand why no journalist has asked Phil Spencer about this.
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Yeah, and I should have been more explicit that the ms store (i am equating the two which isnt technically true) on xbox is probably much more used than the ones on Windows PC at the moment.
Disney's been okay with exclusive games using their IP on PlayStation and Switch. I don't think they're that big on capitalizing all available platforms with each game. They just don't want to take on the risk of making the game themselves, and the way they do that is by partnering with someone else and often that's a console vendor, who naturally wants the game to be exclusive.
If Disney took gaming more seriously than they do, you'd probably be right. But if they took gaming as seriously as they do films and theme parks, they'd do it in-house and we wouldn't be having this conversation in the first place. Instead, they treat games like tie-in merch, something that can be outsourced. They don't seem to want to be a video game company any more than they want to be a doll company or a lunchbox company.
If they can keep it next gen an install bas of 40-50 million would be big enough to get most third party support, especially given rising cost of development so needing to sell games to an man as possible. But if hardware sales keep dropping they might not get those numbers.
I tend to say xbox store and ms store it makes more obvious imo. But I also do not see Xbox hardware leaving the market anytime soon.
In the end it's up to the consumer to decide where they play games on and if more and more people switch to PC or mobile or maybe a game streaming provider than they still support xbox by playing games from MS.
Playing Halo MCC on SX for the first time now. Yeah very late to the party…even though I've played them all multiple times before.
Halo 1 with classic visuals. Man what a game. Incredible mood and style. Feels great to control and even tough I'm not a nostalgic person it does really remind me of the long afternoons of playing it split screen with my friends and wife. This really is a special game and so far this port feels fantastic and it really has a pure Xbox vibe that I love. just might run trough them all on the coming months.
Halo 1 with classic visuals. Man what a game. Incredible mood and style. Feels great to control and even tough I'm not a nostalgic person it does really remind me of the long afternoons of playing it split screen with my friends and wife. This really is a special game and so far this port feels fantastic and it really has a pure Xbox vibe that I love. just might run trough them all on the coming months.
Yeah, I do have the bad habit of jump one or two steps in my head and not writing stuff that's more explicit and detailed. Ultimately I do think they are two halves of the same strategy as will be the mobile store whenever/if it comes out.
Agreed on the second paragraph.
Haha me too usually . Always think more than I write actually :D
I also think that MS is not a company that can be compared to other platform holders in the gaming business anymore as they move on from things real quick and try to expan business more than their competitors. They have so many ways to print money that they can afford to loose some on other ends (Xbox hardware).
The every screen is an Xbox strategy should really appeal to casuals I suppose. It just can't be more convenient for a family to play games just on a TV (streaming) without the need of additional hardware.
We should just get used to it.
By how much? I'll take that bet.
We know that the ones on PlayStation had inbuilt agreements to ship on other platforms if sales targets aren't met, so it's clearly not as laissez-faire as you're implying here. They might be okay with it, but if those titles don't perform as well as they want them to, that rug is going to get pulled pretty fast.
I'm playing on my new TV and damn, Starfield looks even more gorgeous. You can say whatever about this game's flaws, but the art direction and the visuals are top notch.
About the recent news, it's nothing I didn't expect. I guess that the compatibility things they are going to be doing is making the Xbox games run on pc, which, imo, is the best outcome we should get, given the situation.
About the recent news, it's nothing I didn't expect. I guess that the compatibility things they are going to be doing is making the Xbox games run on pc, which, imo, is the best outcome we should get, given the situation.
I still kind of find it fascinating how Xbox is pivoting that much towards being a multiplatform publisher, instead of understanding the root of their problems and fixing them.
Too little too late now, probably, yeah.
But surely since 2018 things should have evolved a lot more.
Too little too late now, probably, yeah.
But surely since 2018 things should have evolved a lot more.
Yeah I agree with this. There was even the Disney executive who said recently that between Xbox and PC, they aren't worried about install base for Indy.
Edit: The biggest struggle for Indy's sales will be the IP's perceived lack of relevance today, but if the game is really good (which it will be, it's MachineGames) then it'll be fine.
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I'm looking for more than solo friendly, as I tried to explain in my post. Borderlands could be considered solo friendly, but it would still have been designed in an entirely different way, if it had been single player only. I'm looking for story, narrative, scripted events and lore as part of the quests and environments, as in the examples I gave.
Those studios have hardly had a chance to establish a line-up of exclusives, because games take so long to make and they started purchasing studios between 2018-2023. Five years of development would give us 2023-2028 for the first round of big titles and they would probably need a few rounds to establish the console with all the damage they've inflicted on it over the years.
Unfortunately they pivoted just as they were starting to release titles and now it's too late. There's no recovery coming with the current multiplatform strategy, just generational to generational decline.
It's almost like simply buying a studio doesn't give you a complete game to immediately ship, and developing games actually takes years, or something.
The acquisition spree wasn't ever about stacking the first few years of the Series S/X era with games. It was much too late for that. The acquisitions were to prepare them for the back half of this gen and beyond.
View: https://twitter.com/PaulTassi/status/1783623378198306942?t=VoCpUpaRbQmRg-e04o3PlA&s=19
It is what it is imo
Meanwhile I'm still out there asking for Xbox ports on Twitter and real life 🫡
Q4 in this context means Q4 of MS's current fiscal year, meaning April-June 2024. They're not predicting anything for Q4 of calendar year 2024 yet.
It's HB2 quarter though, so I guess they don't expect that to move too many consoles.
The key thing to remember though is that ATM, they don't actually have a policy on this. it's a trial/experiment.
They can't say if it's going to be 1,2 or 3 year timed exclusivity, permanent exclusivity for any/all/some games.
They simply have not yet decided.
They are a data driven company and won't make a determination until they have a data set to draw from.
These 4 games, plus some other ones over the next 12 months or so, will represent that dataset.
The uncertainty that it causes is basically the price of doing business, for them. The price of having the dataset to draw upon.
They will even have a formula somewhere for allocating/attributing a proportion of any negative impact to the uncertainty itself, as opposed to the policy.
e.g."if sales drop 15% over 2 years, we'll operate under a working assumption that 25% of that 15% is mainly from the uncertainty that this experiment itself caused. "
I certainly think they planned for some 2018/2019 purchases to be shipping more and sooner than they did. In 2018, games were still coming out on 3 or 3.5 year dev cycles in many cases. A few games were taking longer but it wasn't yet as widespread as now. Gears 5 was set to launch in 2019 after 3 years, 3rd party studios like Eidos, a myriad Ubisoft teams and the CoD factories were cranking out games reliably on those timetables, and some titles were even coming out on 2 year cycles. Netherrealm alternated series every 2 years. Forza Motorsports + Horizon were both like clockwork every 2 years.
Pillars 1 and 2 took both took 3 years and The Outer Worlds also took around 3 years (preproduction began in 2016). Imo there was good reason in 2018 to think their next product, starting life in 2018 under Microsoft, might ship in 2021 or early 2022.
Hellblade shipped after 3 years in 2017. The idea of them shipping a new game in 2020 or 2021 wouldn't have seemed outlandish. We Happy Few was set to release a month or two after the ink dried, so they certainly might be shipping something 3 or 4 years later, on paper.
Inxile and Double Fine I think they expected more or less to only get Wasteland and Psychonauts 2 in their first few years, but the others, not so much.
As late as 2020 with zenimax we can see how different the plans were at these companies versus what actually arrived in the end. They thought Deathloop would be 2020 and Ghostwire would be 2021 with their next products only 3 years later, and those docs were like q2 2020. So rewind 2 years earlier, covid being years away? I think they expected 2021 and 2022 to be pretty stacked with exclusives, especially once they started talking to Square Enix, Sega, WB and ZeniMax in 2019 and early 2020.
GamePass is only going to get more stacked from here on out :)
If I come up with something else I'll let you know. But for now, for some reason the best comparable I can think of is one of my favourite DLCs from Rise of the Tomb Raider, called Cold Darkness Awakened. That dlc is a stealth/action set piece.
But one small aspect of the dlc I loved is a section where you must disable chemical towers. Whenever you enter a tower, you'll receive instructions from a fellow character named Nadia. She'll be ready instructions from a manual and relaying them to you through radio. She'll ask questions like:
Are there less than 8 red fuses in the 3 fuse boxes?
If So – Lower the Red Fuel Pump conduit.
If Not – Crank the Blue Water Filtration generator.
I remember is being pretty satisfying to solve those puzzles. But that's just a small part of the dlc. It's a tomb raider game so there is some action and stealth as well.