"It takes five years to make a game" only matters if absolutely none of their acquired studios had anything going on, which is false--take the aforementioned Hi-Fi, Redfall, and Starfield. They had games in the pipeline--that's why they were acquired, they all had something to offer.
No, it does matter, because it both says something about the control and positioning Microsoft can give a title and games already in development can often be forced to be non-exclusives, either by other contracts, publishers or even if it's too far along. When you buy them, you get what they have and maybe that's Psychonauts 2, Wasteland 3, Deathloop or Ghostwire that are already promised off to other platforms for various reasons.
Maybe it's something that can quickly be made exclusive like Redfall and Starfield.
Both examples matter because we're talking about the dev cycles, they needed for exclusives. One will prolong the dev cycle, while the other will shorten it. Maybe you buy Starfield and that can be ready sooner, because it was already in development. Maybe you buy Elder Scrolls Online or Ghostwire and those teams won't be ready to switch to exclusives right way.
On top of that some studios or teams were built from the ground up (like Playground's second team and The Initiative). That'll take even longer.
The point here being, when I say five years for an AAA title and multiple cycles needed, that's both an estimation and a recognition we didn't get either.
They pivoted before, even the game they showcased the console with, released.
Another way to do it, if you don't like my five year round up estimation - which was just to make things simple, as the above shows the variations you otherwise encounter - would be to just count the games instead.
How many exclusive AAA games have we gotten from their newly bought teams?
That should tell you how far we are through their dev cycles. Yeah, it's slim pickings, which is exactly my point: We are not even through their first dev cycle of exclusives and they would have needed several.
Obsidian got out Grounded and Pentiment, too.
It was pointed out specifically, we were talking about AAA dev cycles. I love those games, but we're are talking about games of another size here.
So continue bleeding relevance in the hopes that fifteen years down the line, things will turn around?
Whether it's bleeding or building relevance is what we don't know. It's bleeding relevance now, but they're doing little to help it. Whether another strategy could have built relevance over time is what we don't know.
What makes a compelled exclusive? Why is Spider-Man a compelling game, but Starfield or Hi-Fi aren't? Why do we assume that we're going to see bangers instead of Redfalls?
We don't? We're discussing whether a long list of exclusives (Xbox/PC/cloud) on top of pushes, localization and advertising, would have worked out for the console over several dev cycles and you claimed it wouldn't, while I claimed, we'll never know.
We seem to have arrived at the same conclusion though:
You're right, we won't know.
It certainly wouldn't be easy and Microsoft would have to accept a long time with less growth than a multiplatform strategy can give them. That's just how it is, when dev cycles are five or so years and they have to make up for past mistakes as well. All for a console market that's a zero sum game, sees little growth and has fierce competitors.
I fully understand why they're pivoting, but I'm not convinced PC, Xbox and cloud couldn't have worked out as well, but it's certainly riskier. Their games are super popular, so they'll find success on other platforms. There's no guarantee with the other strategy.