Agree. I think it's a mistake to apply what we know about past gens to next gen. It'd a massively different landscape. Services and digital are huge, streaming could go a bunch of different ways, and besides all of that next gen consoles will be crazy powerful. Even if there is a difference in power, we're still talking about two machines targeting 8k, that difference isn't going to be as noticeable as it was for HD, or even if it's noticeable it won't be in the same places it has been in the past.
I'm not assuming every gamer this gen is going to stick with their platform, I just think it won't be as easy for a lot of people to make that decision. I also fully acknowledge that there's pretty much no way to tell if I'm right about that, even after the next gen consoles launch, any confirmation will be all speculation.
I think Obsidian and Ninja Theory both will surprise a lot of people, really looking forward to seeing them in full force. They'll at least hold down the fort until Playground releases it's RPG, which I expect is still several years away, way past launch window for next gen.