I welcome the competition and am far from a TSLA fanboy. That said, so far the biggest single issue I see with competitors is the supercharging network. Right now there's just nothing close which kills my interest of any other EV as anything but a local "day tripper" vehicle vs. Tesla where I've taken it on 12 hour roadt rips.
Stock Market Era |OT3| Nobody expects the Spanish Inflation!
- Thread starter Sheepinator
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I welcome the competition and am far from a TSLA fanboy. That said, so far the biggest single issue I see with competitors is the supercharging network. Right now there's just nothing close which kills my interest of any other EV as anything but a local "day tripper" vehicle vs. Tesla where I've taken it on 12 hour roadt rips.
Selling cars is a dead end for Tesla. Sooner or later, the rest of the car companies will eat into their sales which will force them to trim margins and, worse, take away the cash cow of selling vouchers to those other companies. I don't think the end is nigh or anything, we're still years away from that, but I'd like to see some diversification before it closes in.
Tesla will be fine regardless but Musk's antics have guaranteed that when I go electric I won't be getting a Tesla.
Lucky for Tesla they working on self-driving cars, which will open new opportunities. Tesla also has solar, battery storage, insurance and Tesla Bots.
None of these are guaranteed to be "the next big hit" for Tesla, but it does show Tesla is getting it's foot in other business avenues than car manufacturing.
Edit// and a supercharger network that over time will open to other car manufacturers.
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They will definitely get a smaller slice of the pie in the future, but that EV pie is getting lager and larger. I don't see their sales slowing down any time soon.
It's either that Tesla becomes like Apple and rakes in the majority of the profits in the sector, or gets pushed out of the market despite first mover advantage. History more often points to the latter than the former...
Ugh I hate Netflix earnings now. It's almost always bad news for the stock.
down 20% almost already. Damn.
edit - now down only 15%.
Q2 guidance looks bad.
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NFLX, wow. Will their struggling with subs be seen as good news for the comp like WBD, who are valued vastly cheaper? Or more likely, the market will just sell it all.
Not really surprised with Netflix. I've been debating keeping it for the first time in awhile. Feels like HBO and Apple TV have been dropping all the hits lately. Netflix keeps releasing trash and then cancelling the series it does have.
I was one of those who recently canceled Netflix right before the last price hike. 20 dollars a month for 4k hdr content is too much. I'll be subbing once every 3 or 4 months now, binging, and then canceling. Streaming service churn is real. Truth by told I haven't had Netflix for months now and do not miss it.
That Disney Plus pump should be be hurt by this too. Disney still has parks, but the current valuation is still a little high and this was based off of Disney Plus growth. But who knows how the market will interpret this overall.
This seems to be lining up with what I've been thinking about for awhile: People want to spend their money this summer by going out and having experiences.
Not market commentary here, but time to get those Nvidia GPUs back to MSRP, or even under.
I don't know if WBD will get rewarded yet, but if Zaslav can keep building up streaming service without over spending on content, I think this will put pressure by analsysts on other streaming companies.
That Disney Plus pump should be be hurt by this too. Disney still has parks, but the current valuation is still a little high and this was based off of Disney Plus growth. But who knows how the market will interpret this overall.
This seems to be lining up with what I've been thinking about for awhile: People want to spend their money this summer by going out and having experiences.
Not market commentary here, but time to get those Nvidia GPUs back to MSRP, or even under.
NFLX, wow. Will their struggling with subs be seen as good news for the comp like WBD, who are valued vastly cheaper? Or more likely, the market will just sell it all.
I don't know if WBD will get rewarded yet, but if Zaslav can keep building up streaming service without over spending on content, I think this will put pressure by analsysts on other streaming companies.
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I've been holding ABNB since March of last year just for this moment! 😂
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For us, Netflix and HBO are the permanent subs. IMO Netflix has more than enough decent content, though its highs don't match HBO's. The other services are a month here and there.
I don't fully get it. They have 50+ million more subscribers than they did back at the end of 2019 and the service costs more. I def understand it was overvalued the last couple of years, but a 60% drop in 6 months is insane. A subscription based service is never going to sustain infinite growth.
I think it's less about infinite growth and more about their inability to innovate without getting their lunch money stolen by new entries that have deep pockets.
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P/E ratio at the end of 2019 was ~78, now ~30.
There is presumably still plenty of cord cutters coming, and international growth. The trend to streaming is not going away. The problem for all the streamers is potentially over-spending on the content against all the competition.
Netflix PE Ratio 2010-2023 | NFLX
<p>Current and historical p/e ratio for Netflix (NFLX) from 2010 to 2023. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under...
www.macrotrends.net
Doesn't Europe get shows like Better Call Saul at the same time as release on Netflix? In the USA we have to sub to AMC+ for this. Or wait for the entire season 6 to be finished, and then it shows up on Netflix in USA like a year after the finale.
I noticed this UK report popped up yesterday today ahead of earnings. Curious timing:
deadline.com
I noticed this UK report popped up yesterday today ahead of earnings. Curious timing:
UK Streaming Subscriptions Shrink As Households Look To Cut Costs – Report
The number of UK households that subscribe to at least one streaming service shrank in the first quarter of 2022, says research firm Kantar
deadline.com
WBD is down some too in after, but only 3% so likely a knee jerk reaction to seeing netflix struggling or usual after market downage.NFLX, wow. Will their struggling with subs be seen as good news for the comp like WBD, who are valued vastly cheaper? Or more likely, the market will just sell it all.
but yeah as far as I can see netflix is below a year 3 low now?
It will be interesting to watch Netflix tomorrow though.
30 is still very high/good though. It was the 78 that was ridiculously high and I guess it's just where it should be now idk.P/E ratio at the end of 2019 was ~78, now ~30.
There is presumably still plenty of cord cutters coming, and international growth. The trend to streaming is not going away. The problem for all the streamers is potentially over-spending on the content against all the competition.
Netflix PE Ratio 2010-2023 | NFLX
<p>Current and historical p/e ratio for Netflix (NFLX) from 2010 to 2023. The price to earnings ratio is calculated by taking the latest closing price and dividing it by the most recent earnings per share (EPS) number. The PE ratio is a simple way to assess whether a stock is over or under...
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Low $250 range might be support. At $261 now in AH, and I wouldn't touch it here. AH weakness or strength tends to follow through to the next day barring a new catalyst. The monthly lows of 11/18, 2/19, 9/19 and 10/19 were all in the $250-$257 range. Options will probably be expensive to buy for another couple of days while the dust settles and volatility drops.
I just have Netflix just to have it. I find myself using HBO Max and and even Hulu more lately.
Yup, Netflix was always the one with deep pockets that bought subscribers but now that they can't buy everything (Marvel) or have to go into bidding wars with other deep pockets means their cost per subscriber is skyrocketing while also ramming their head into a subscriber saturation problem. So either they innovate or they keep raising subscription costs and fighting account sharing while sticking their head in the sand.
Not to doom post about Netflix's prospects, they'll be fine since the streaming market will continue to grow (just not at the pace that they want their profits to), it's just that their valuation kind of needs to be adjusted to their new reality.
Edit: side note, this sucks and is going to drag the market back down after a positive day
I've wanted to drop Netflix for awhile now but I share an account with my parents and they don't want to drop it.
If they eliminate account sharing its definitely gone and I will not resub unless something drastic happens.
I think their decision to kill off good shows after 2 or 3 seasons has alienated me from ever getting invested in their original series.
If they eliminate account sharing its definitely gone and I will not resub unless something drastic happens.
I think their decision to kill off good shows after 2 or 3 seasons has alienated me from ever getting invested in their original series.
Netflix loses subscribers amid growing competition, shares drop 25% — The Wall Street Journal
Company ends first quarter with 200,000 fewer subscribers and says it expects to lose two million more in current quarter
apple.news
They are exploring a version with commercials.
So Netflix is caving to Wall Street pressure now that their stock is getting smashed after hours? Hahahaha.
This might be a modern case of when I mentioned earlier big money won't wait for the worst news to come to crush a stock. If big money thinks Netflix isn't growing anymore, they are going to front run the sell off ahead of the worst of it. You can do tradable bounces in the meantime like Sheepinator is looking at, but longer term if the market thinks Netflix isn't growing as fast anymore, institutional selling on rallies will keep pressure on the stock from moving higher. No one knows if this is the case yet, but this is what history has shown for growth companies when Wall Street thinks these companies aren't going to be growing nearly as fast anymore. By the time the worst of the news comes, the stock has likely already bottomed and moving higher again. Because the sellers have exhausted themselves at this point. But it doesn't necessarily mean the stock is mooning back to all time high anytime soon. That also requires insitutional participation buying to move a stock higher.
700 dollar stock in November. If it opens up at 260 tomorrow, that is about a 62 percent drop from the high in six months. Now to wait and see over the next couple weeks if 62% drop from the top is enough damage. This might be the most dangerous market I've ever seen, including the covid crash. Wasn't in it for the 2000-2002 or 2007-2008 timeline though.
The after shock of the fed pump perhaps. Companies better deliver or their stock is gonna get pummeled. Super earnings week coming next week with Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook.
This might be a modern case of when I mentioned earlier big money won't wait for the worst news to come to crush a stock. If big money thinks Netflix isn't growing anymore, they are going to front run the sell off ahead of the worst of it. You can do tradable bounces in the meantime like Sheepinator is looking at, but longer term if the market thinks Netflix isn't growing as fast anymore, institutional selling on rallies will keep pressure on the stock from moving higher. No one knows if this is the case yet, but this is what history has shown for growth companies when Wall Street thinks these companies aren't going to be growing nearly as fast anymore. By the time the worst of the news comes, the stock has likely already bottomed and moving higher again. Because the sellers have exhausted themselves at this point. But it doesn't necessarily mean the stock is mooning back to all time high anytime soon. That also requires insitutional participation buying to move a stock higher.
700 dollar stock in November. If it opens up at 260 tomorrow, that is about a 62 percent drop from the high in six months. Now to wait and see over the next couple weeks if 62% drop from the top is enough damage. This might be the most dangerous market I've ever seen, including the covid crash. Wasn't in it for the 2000-2002 or 2007-2008 timeline though.
The after shock of the fed pump perhaps. Companies better deliver or their stock is gonna get pummeled. Super earnings week coming next week with Apple, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook.
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I've resubbed after about a year out because there's finally enough I want to watch but can't see us staying subscribed for long. £11.99 for standard HD is a lot when you can get other services that are coming out with more substantive content for less. Netflix will continue to get hoisted by their own previously great value.
But seriously most of the Tesla stock enthusiasts are not car enthusiasts or car market knowledgeable.
They act like the car is a unicorn. It's not. Other makers have reached parity.
It's like yelling that Nintendo was lord of home gaming.
It is not a mystery machine powered by secret sauce. A console is few basic things working together. An electric car is a few basic things working together.
They act like the car is a unicorn. It's not. Other makers have reached parity.
It's like yelling that Nintendo was lord of home gaming.
It is not a mystery machine powered by secret sauce. A console is few basic things working together. An electric car is a few basic things working together.
Netflix doubling down on this household sharing thing instead of admitting they got greedy and raised their prices too fast and too much.
To me NFLX precipitous price fall from it's ATH is just as much a correction as it is stockholder overreaction to the lack of continuous growth. I think everyone can agree their valuation skyrocketed during COVID to an absurd degree like some other popular stocks during that time.
This is dismissive and incorrect, many TSLA investors are very knowledgeable about the auto industry.
Other EV's have not reached parity yet with Tesla. Sure there are now good EV's by other brands today, but none have matched Tesla in tech nor efficiency yet, save for Lucid possibly:
But more than this Tesla has far and away the best margins and profitability in the auto industry, no other automaker is even close financially. No other automaker has a worldwide supercharging network. No other automaker uses die casting to make entire frame sections. No other automaker builds their cars in 12 hours or less, the next quickest production time is over double Tesla's production times.
It's easy to dismiss Tesla's strengths and believe that "anyone can do it", but reality is very different and production at Tesla's levels of efficiency are NOT easy to reproduce. If they were then at least some of the legacy automakers who have been making cars for decades would be able to at a minimum match it by now. They haven't as of yet, not even close.
The latest Joseph Carlson upload was harsh, but still something to learn from. Investing can get pretty scary sometimes.
For me it's the recent price hike. Crossing the $15 barrier was the last straw. At this rate we're going to be at twenty pretty soon. No way I'm paying ANYONE to give me ads either. They can hold that ad supported plan close their chest with that L. I'd rather take a cheaper 720p ad free plan.
For those looking at the Netflix bounce play remember that after it's previous 20% plummet it fell three more days for another 10% before having a 30% rally. There's going to be money to made here but timing it is going to be tricky and the narrative may be different this time.
It's why I chose VGT over something like QQQ. I don't want exposure to Meta and Netflix which are my two least favorite of the FAANGMAN stocks. I'd rather have more chips in Apple right now (see how this ages..).
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Definitely not buying calls.
1. Options will be expensive for days.
2. Any bounce may well cap at $300.
If you must play it, best to nibble small and/or wait a few days. I wouldn't call it super cheap even here at $240.