A 500$ box won't be bringing in the Kinect audience so how will it do what Kinect did to 360?
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A New ERA: Predict the lifetime sales for the PS4, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch, and Nintendo 3DS
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
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HAHA no.
Alter the traditional console sales curve and extend the life of the product.
See above. How can you guys assume I'm talking about the long gone casual audience Kinect brought in here? That does not make much sense.
Could happen if down the line they kill off the OG PS4 and have the Pro as the only model for sale (2019, mark it down). Kinda how they did the 20GB PS3.
Even if we ignore the weird comparisons with a product that offered a lot more than the X will ever offer, why would you think it'd have that impact ?
Edit : Oh so you mean it'll do the exact same thing as the PS4 Pro. Yeah, I can agree with that.
PS4: 500M
Xbone: 150M
Switch: 20M
PS4 is a wildcard. It's very hard to gauge interest because it's constantly selling despite not being officially $199 yet AND it did sell out for several months at launch. EVERYONE wants one, It hasn't even gotten a brand new God of War yet. It also didn't start in the hole like the PS3 or Vita did. AND the PS3 and Vita won't be around for much longer.
Xbone has the Xbox One X soon. Xbone execs keep saying it's going to be hard to get at launch. It's definitely going to revive and boost Xbone One sales!
Switch I expect to die off soon. It's not even constantly sold out anymore. And Zelda and Mario are already out.
Seriously though
PS4: 125M
Xbone: 50M
Switch: 60M
Xbone: 150M
Switch: 20M
PS4 is a wildcard. It's very hard to gauge interest because it's constantly selling despite not being officially $199 yet AND it did sell out for several months at launch. EVERYONE wants one, It hasn't even gotten a brand new God of War yet. It also didn't start in the hole like the PS3 or Vita did. AND the PS3 and Vita won't be around for much longer.
Xbone has the Xbox One X soon. Xbone execs keep saying it's going to be hard to get at launch. It's definitely going to revive and boost Xbone One sales!
Switch I expect to die off soon. It's not even constantly sold out anymore. And Zelda and Mario are already out.
Seriously though
PS4: 125M
Xbone: 50M
Switch: 60M
PS4 Family - 110~130 million
Assuming they can sell at least as many this holiday quarter as they did last year (9.7m), and only sell marginally less for calendar year 2018 (18m as opposed to CY2017's potential 20m), this seems like a reasonable figure. Also depends heavily on when they announce a PS5 IMO.
Xbox One Family - 50ish million
Hard to judge much without concrete numbers, but Microsoft has been treading water for a while now, and the One X doesn't seem poised to save things. Assuming the 30ish million figure for now is accurate, somewhere in the 50s seems within shooting distance.
Nintendo Switch - 60~80 million
The 2nd year will be the year to watch with this, I feel. Nintendo has put a ton of stuff on the table, but it remains to be seen if they can keep the momentum with entries like Pokemon or Animal Crossing. I can't see them matching PS4's near 20m yearly figure if only because they lack the third-party advantage that Sony has when first-party is unable to deliver. This may also be compounded by a potential X2/PS5 launch in the middle of its life, and create a more insurmountable hardware gap for AAA games.
Personally, my mark to watch is if it can outsell the 3DS.
Assuming they can sell at least as many this holiday quarter as they did last year (9.7m), and only sell marginally less for calendar year 2018 (18m as opposed to CY2017's potential 20m), this seems like a reasonable figure. Also depends heavily on when they announce a PS5 IMO.
Xbox One Family - 50ish million
Hard to judge much without concrete numbers, but Microsoft has been treading water for a while now, and the One X doesn't seem poised to save things. Assuming the 30ish million figure for now is accurate, somewhere in the 50s seems within shooting distance.
Nintendo Switch - 60~80 million
The 2nd year will be the year to watch with this, I feel. Nintendo has put a ton of stuff on the table, but it remains to be seen if they can keep the momentum with entries like Pokemon or Animal Crossing. I can't see them matching PS4's near 20m yearly figure if only because they lack the third-party advantage that Sony has when first-party is unable to deliver. This may also be compounded by a potential X2/PS5 launch in the middle of its life, and create a more insurmountable hardware gap for AAA games.
Personally, my mark to watch is if it can outsell the 3DS.
Exactly. And potentially even better than what the PS4 Pro is doing for the Ps4 family, because the Xbox One X seems to be powerful enough to deliver on their 4K promise. I don't see Microsoft needing a more powerful console within the next 5 years. So if there is no desruptive technology and development advancement in the next few years, the console is good enough. Even a year or two after a Ps5 release.
PS4: 140 million
Xbox One: 55 million
Nintendo Switch: 100 million
Nintendo 3DS: 78 million
I wouldn't be surprised if PS4 ends over 150mil. Sony systems have great leggy years even after a new system has launched. The Xbox One is pretty much only selling in western Europe and America. I don't see Microsoft giving the system a big push after the Xbox One X this fall, especially if it doesn't have a great launch. The Switch is a wild card but I expect 3rd year sales to be around 60mil with the launch of Pokemon. It really depends on how much of a phenomenon it becomes, all the data we have is constrained. The 3DS is slowly fighting the good fight.
Xbox One: 55 million
Nintendo Switch: 100 million
Nintendo 3DS: 78 million
I wouldn't be surprised if PS4 ends over 150mil. Sony systems have great leggy years even after a new system has launched. The Xbox One is pretty much only selling in western Europe and America. I don't see Microsoft giving the system a big push after the Xbox One X this fall, especially if it doesn't have a great launch. The Switch is a wild card but I expect 3rd year sales to be around 60mil with the launch of Pokemon. It really depends on how much of a phenomenon it becomes, all the data we have is constrained. The 3DS is slowly fighting the good fight.
Well, yes, I understand that, but didn't someone at Sony say that the Pro would be seen as the "default" PS4 model going forward? If that's true, and Sony do make the Pro the base model from next year onwards, I could see that 45m figure happening. Though it's a very long shot, I know.
PS4: 100+
XOne: 65+
3DS: 80+
Where are these 40-60 millions predictions for Switch coming from? At least a bit bothering with the real sales numbers would forbid such "guesses from the guts".
Looking at the (very supply constraint Switch sales for the first 6 month) and compare them to other systems with a similar sales curve (Nintendo and other), it will at very least have sales around 90+ mio, unless the world is hit by an asteroid soon.
XOne: 65+
3DS: 80+
Where are these 40-60 millions predictions for Switch coming from? At least a bit bothering with the real sales numbers would forbid such "guesses from the guts".
Looking at the (very supply constraint Switch sales for the first 6 month) and compare them to other systems with a similar sales curve (Nintendo and other), it will at very least have sales around 90+ mio, unless the world is hit by an asteroid soon.
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120 million for the PS4, 60 million for the Xone. Sony came out of the gate storming and has never looked back, and the brand has always been stronger overall in the global market than the Xbox.
I expect 70 million tops for the 3DS.
I'm going to hold off until the end of next year on making a Switch prediction, as it is still WAY too early to make even an informed guess on how it will do long term.
I expect 70 million tops for the 3DS.
I'm going to hold off until the end of next year on making a Switch prediction, as it is still WAY too early to make even an informed guess on how it will do long term.
I don't think so...
https://ce-pro.eu/2017/06/21/4k-uhd-tvs-outsell-full-hd-uk-prices-fall/
Predictions:
PS4 Family - 110-125m - on the other place, one of my first predictions was that if Sony could match or beat MS Gen 7 unit volume in NA, and maintained sales RotW it'd be on a 100m+ trajectory, and I see nothing happening to change that. It may be even higher depending on how long Sony keep selling it once PS5 launches.
Xbox family - 45-50m. I'm pretty bullish on X1X over this holiday, but seeing the X1S only price matching PS4 Slim in the BF sales leaks we've had I can't see much happening to improve it in the Americas.
Switch - 80-110m - very hard to call since we don't know what Nintendo's medium-long term plans for the console are. One thing I would note about its current sales is that there were several posters claiming Switch was expanding the audience demographic, which isn't borne out in the infographic Nintendo released of who's buying Switch - it's still 18-35 & male, which is squarely in the traditional console buying group.
3DS - don't know enough to comment.
It's going to sell 16.7 million in its first 5 financial quarters. That puts it about 2 million behind the PS4 (which had two holidays in the same period), 4 million behind the Wii (again two holidays), 500k behind the 3DS (had a big price cut), but ahead of the Xbox One, Wii U, 360, PS3, DS and practically every other console. If the Switch fails to get to 40 million it will basically be the biggest sales collapse ever.
You really needn't imagine it, as that is what is currently happening in Japan: it's underselling the 3DS launch-aligned.
Now you can cite valid reasons for why this is, such as the 3DS seeing a price cut, or Switch having stock issues, but the point remains that it is currently tracking below the 3DS there.
PlayStation 4: 110M - The PS4 has everything going for it, and it's momentum doesn't look to be slowing down. Sony's tendency to support home consoles well after their successors arrive will also help.
Xbox One: 55M - This console got off to a bad start. And while Microsoft has made improvements, they still lag behind Sony in terms of mind-share and overall developer support. That being said, 55m will still be impressive in it's own right.
3DS: 76M - The 3DS is on it's last legs. The n2DS XL will give it a bit of a buffer, but after the holidays, it'll be less of Nintendo's focus. It had a great run, and in an era of smartphones and tablets, it's a miracle it was able to sell this many units worldwide to begin with.
Switch: 155M - Crazy I know, but the Switch has real momentum behind it. All the people suggesting it to barely outsell the 3DS are really underselling it's potential. It's a simple, innovative concept that's not only accessible to those unfamiliar with console games, but also has a premise and feature-set that can be justified in a post-smartphone world. And if Nintendo keeps this up with a steady stream of games, and the occasional hardware revision/addition, the Switch could easily break the DS' record as the second best selling console period. It's just that appealing.
Xbox One: 55M - This console got off to a bad start. And while Microsoft has made improvements, they still lag behind Sony in terms of mind-share and overall developer support. That being said, 55m will still be impressive in it's own right.
3DS: 76M - The 3DS is on it's last legs. The n2DS XL will give it a bit of a buffer, but after the holidays, it'll be less of Nintendo's focus. It had a great run, and in an era of smartphones and tablets, it's a miracle it was able to sell this many units worldwide to begin with.
Switch: 155M - Crazy I know, but the Switch has real momentum behind it. All the people suggesting it to barely outsell the 3DS are really underselling it's potential. It's a simple, innovative concept that's not only accessible to those unfamiliar with console games, but also has a premise and feature-set that can be justified in a post-smartphone world. And if Nintendo keeps this up with a steady stream of games, and the occasional hardware revision/addition, the Switch could easily break the DS' record as the second best selling console period. It's just that appealing.
OP
OP
Eh? But we are talking worldwide where it's edging over 3DS even with stock problem.
Switch got better reception than 3ds, better sale, better line up schedule, better software supports, it covers two market segments, and it's gonna just sell less than 3DS all the sudden because....?
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PS4: 135m
XB1: 45m
Switch: 70m
3DS: 75m
PS4 is still going insanely strong and I think there's still some room to lower costs and drop the price, so I think it'll have legs even after the PS5 eventually comes out.
XB1 is limping along at the moment but I think there'll be a significant amount of their userbase upgrading to the X to eventually get to 45m.
I think the Switch will end up settling slightly below the 3DS (which I think will get its finale this holiday and drop off a cliff next year). My prediction prior to launch was that it'd end up right between the GC and 3DS (~50m), so 70m is a significant improvement on that.
XB1: 45m
Switch: 70m
3DS: 75m
PS4 is still going insanely strong and I think there's still some room to lower costs and drop the price, so I think it'll have legs even after the PS5 eventually comes out.
XB1 is limping along at the moment but I think there'll be a significant amount of their userbase upgrading to the X to eventually get to 45m.
I think the Switch will end up settling slightly below the 3DS (which I think will get its finale this holiday and drop off a cliff next year). My prediction prior to launch was that it'd end up right between the GC and 3DS (~50m), so 70m is a significant improvement on that.
I'm sure the objective is to do better than PS4 Pro's 20%, which I'm pretty confident it'll do the first few months. It's a lovely piece of hardware and I get why Xbox enthusiasts would be all over it.
The problem though is once the novelty wears off it's going to take something more for your regular user to upgrade, and that something is not there, in my opinion. Unless they end up phasing out XB1 in order to offer exclusives games for the X, which could end up in a major PR shitstorm.
Anyway, the other problem is the huge decline in regular X1/S sales, and the X can't be expected to make up for it. The major issue for Xbox right now is getting new people to buy the console, and there's nothing on the horizon that suggests this might change. That's why a lot of predictions, including mine, are pessimistic.
These are terrible predictions that VASTLY overestimate Switch demand, and are NOT plausible sales figures. Holy shit...no chance lol.
After October sales Switch will be ahead again of 3DS in launch aligned sales, and of course way above PS4 sales. Switch had higher sales than 3DS, despite more expensive and supply constraint, but the 3DS price cut/relaunch brought the old handheld back on top... for a short time.
Worldwide Wii and PS4 are the only consoles with higher sales launch aligned, but both had holiday sales in this numbers unlike Switch.
The Switch is leading the 3DS by ~900K in the US and is ahead of the 3DS in worldwide shipments despite the shortages. Looking to Japan alone misses where Switch can outperform 3DS, which is the west.
PS4 - 120 mil
XBO - 50 mil
NSW - 80 mil
3DS - 75 mil
Not really sure about the Switch yet. I mostly expect 2018 to not be an impressive year, but it could really take off in 2019 when I expect we'll get another wave of big first-party games.
XBO - 50 mil
NSW - 80 mil
3DS - 75 mil
Not really sure about the Switch yet. I mostly expect 2018 to not be an impressive year, but it could really take off in 2019 when I expect we'll get another wave of big first-party games.
PS4 - 110 Million
Switch 60 - 70 Million and that number is directly impacted by how these next couple years will come out, if there's long droughts than it will be lower if they are consistent with their releases than it could be higher end.
Xbox one - 50 Million.
Switch 60 - 70 Million and that number is directly impacted by how these next couple years will come out, if there's long droughts than it will be lower if they are consistent with their releases than it could be higher end.
Xbox one - 50 Million.
I suppose predictions that peg Switch at around 40 million, while implying that lower than that is possible, are based on the notion that Switch demand will crater in a way no initially successful console has in history.
Lmfao.
Do you have any idea how long the switch has to be on the market to anywhere near that?
Like I said, crazy. But there is enough to back it up with. The Switch is unique, practical, and very compelling as a product unlike the 3DS. It instantly distinguishes itself from conventional mobile devices as a home console you can take with you, and play anywhere, with anyone. That's a concept that resonates well, both with casual gamers on smartphones, and more core gamers on traditional consoles. It has an appeal none of it's contemporaries have at the moment.
Meanwhile, the 3DS struggled to make itself clear to both consumer and developers, why, or how it was different from your smartphone. 3D wasn't the game changer Nintendo had hoped it would be, dual screens have been done already, and buttons weren't enough. The 3DS for much of it's life was seen as a redundant product carried mostly by the weight of Nintendo's own first party.
The Switch however, has strong momentum right out of the gate. It's already on track to outperform the Wii U within it's first year, and if Nintendo keeps the games and stock coming, then Switch momentum can only increase.
Did you copy this from a press release?
I'm assuming you're factoring in a very long life for the current model of Switch or counting iterative updates/replacements similar to the 2DS/3DS. What time frame do you expect it to reach this 160m? That's 8 years at 20m units per year.
It's true, that a long life and multiple hardware models will also be major contributions, which is mostly where my 155m prediction came from. Honestly, I feel Nintendo intends for the Switch to last for as long as it possibly can, as in, longer than the traditional 4-6 year console cycle, so that'll also contribute as well, possibly taking the numbers higher than my initial prediction.
Anyhow 160 mio for Switch is much more plausible than 40 or 60 mio. :D
But honestly as said before, at very least 90+ million is very likely given the sales trajectory and compare it to other (Nintendo) consoles.
But honestly as said before, at very least 90+ million is very likely given the sales trajectory and compare it to other (Nintendo) consoles.
Xbone is below X360 globally, but for now is ahead in US. Last time when MS said that Xbone is outpacing X360 was back at January 2016. You know, "best lineup in Xbox history".
I said it before, i'm sure that Xbone barely past 31 mil. PS4 for now outpacing Xbone globally for more than 2 : 1 worldwide.
IMO PS4 LTD will be 110, Xbone LTD barely over 40 mil. For Switch it's to early to tell.
It's odd to see when someone wrote numbers for PS4 like 110 mil. and for Xbone 60 mil. or similar ( like 90 vs. 50 ) which is not 2 : 1. It won't happen in any single calendar year that Xbone would outsell PS4.
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PlayStation 4 family - 115 million
PlayStation 4 has the definitive momentum for this generation, and depending on when they actually end the PS4's life and what kind of price drops we'll see before then, this number could definitely be higher. The success of the Switch doesn't seem to be slowing the momentum of the PS4 down at all, which bodes well for future sales.
Xbox One family - 50 million
The Xbox One isn't doing terribly, but this is a definite downturn in their fortunes when they should be riding the momentum from last generation into better sales this generation. That is Xbox One's biggest failing, being unable to capitalize on the positivity the 360 bought Microsoft. I get the feeling that the Xbox One X will give The XB1 family a much needed boost in sales but will mainly sell to the hardcore Xbox fan and the hardcore graphics enthusiast, but will fail to achieve larger market success among those looking for a new console or those switching or looking for a secondary console; at this point in the generation, the established game library is far more important than graphics horsepower, and while the Xbox One has a very respectable game selection, it is vastly outclassed by its direct competitor, which boasts having the majority of the same 3rd party titles along with some de facto 3rd party exclusives and a superior variety of 1st party offerings (opinions vary of course). I have to reiterate, however, that Xbox One is not selling badly at all, Microsoft is still making a good profit on the system, and I imagine the Xbox team will be taking all the hard lessons they've learned from this generation to heart when they design the successor to the Xbox One. No, I don't think the Xbox is dead; if Sony can learn from the PS3 debacle and get stronger from it, if Nintendo can recover from the WiiU disaster, Microsoft can certainly do the same in the upcoming generation.
Nintendo Switch - 80 million
I want to be hopeful that the Nintendo Switch does even better than 80 million. I'm basing this prediction off of 3DS sales mostly, but they need greater 3rd party support; right now it feels kind of like it's getting leftovers from the other consoles, akin to how the WiiU was at the start. I don't want to base my guess on the mind blowingly fantastic start the Switch has had (two clear GOTY contenders in launch year, wow!), but because Nintendo's 1st party is an impressive juggernaut and 3DS support is winding down, the Switch will undoubtedly be drowning in fantastic 1st party titles in the years to come. Switch has also carved itself a spot as one of the best places to play Indie titles, and Indie developers continue to support the platform without any signs of slowing down. The Switch manages to be a portable console, a respectable main console, and a companion console to more powerful hardware all at the same time, and that gives it huge potential for sales now and into the future.
PlayStation 4 has the definitive momentum for this generation, and depending on when they actually end the PS4's life and what kind of price drops we'll see before then, this number could definitely be higher. The success of the Switch doesn't seem to be slowing the momentum of the PS4 down at all, which bodes well for future sales.
Xbox One family - 50 million
The Xbox One isn't doing terribly, but this is a definite downturn in their fortunes when they should be riding the momentum from last generation into better sales this generation. That is Xbox One's biggest failing, being unable to capitalize on the positivity the 360 bought Microsoft. I get the feeling that the Xbox One X will give The XB1 family a much needed boost in sales but will mainly sell to the hardcore Xbox fan and the hardcore graphics enthusiast, but will fail to achieve larger market success among those looking for a new console or those switching or looking for a secondary console; at this point in the generation, the established game library is far more important than graphics horsepower, and while the Xbox One has a very respectable game selection, it is vastly outclassed by its direct competitor, which boasts having the majority of the same 3rd party titles along with some de facto 3rd party exclusives and a superior variety of 1st party offerings (opinions vary of course). I have to reiterate, however, that Xbox One is not selling badly at all, Microsoft is still making a good profit on the system, and I imagine the Xbox team will be taking all the hard lessons they've learned from this generation to heart when they design the successor to the Xbox One. No, I don't think the Xbox is dead; if Sony can learn from the PS3 debacle and get stronger from it, if Nintendo can recover from the WiiU disaster, Microsoft can certainly do the same in the upcoming generation.
Nintendo Switch - 80 million
I want to be hopeful that the Nintendo Switch does even better than 80 million. I'm basing this prediction off of 3DS sales mostly, but they need greater 3rd party support; right now it feels kind of like it's getting leftovers from the other consoles, akin to how the WiiU was at the start. I don't want to base my guess on the mind blowingly fantastic start the Switch has had (two clear GOTY contenders in launch year, wow!), but because Nintendo's 1st party is an impressive juggernaut and 3DS support is winding down, the Switch will undoubtedly be drowning in fantastic 1st party titles in the years to come. Switch has also carved itself a spot as one of the best places to play Indie titles, and Indie developers continue to support the platform without any signs of slowing down. The Switch manages to be a portable console, a respectable main console, and a companion console to more powerful hardware all at the same time, and that gives it huge potential for sales now and into the future.
It doesn't have to in order to break a 2 : 1 ratio? Has to sell >0.5, not >1.
If you're talking longevity similar to PS2 yeah, could happen - but I can't see that happening with the current unit alone - and what might be considered a 'new-gen' Switch?
A new model with improved specs and performance available to developer if needed. Sort of like the New 3DS, or all the new iPhone models that come out each year.
PS4 - 110m - I could see playstation dropping the price to $150 with a game in a years time around thanksgiving to really pull in everyone on the fringes.
Xbone - 51m - I think the one x will be a luxury upgrade for the MS loyal but overall they won't be attract enough new users due to an identity problem (what makes the xbone special- for forza/halo/gears? those games have been out for a while and don't seem to have brought in ensure users).
Switch - 80m - I think if Nintendo will treat switch like 3ds with a "new" upgrade a few years in to boost sales and keep the console getting early/mid PS4 gen games; then the early adopters will upgrade while the base model drops in price to bring in the more casual crowd (likely in time for a definitive edition of Pokémon switch -late 2019/ early 2020?)
Xbone - 51m - I think the one x will be a luxury upgrade for the MS loyal but overall they won't be attract enough new users due to an identity problem (what makes the xbone special- for forza/halo/gears? those games have been out for a while and don't seem to have brought in ensure users).
Switch - 80m - I think if Nintendo will treat switch like 3ds with a "new" upgrade a few years in to boost sales and keep the console getting early/mid PS4 gen games; then the early adopters will upgrade while the base model drops in price to bring in the more casual crowd (likely in time for a definitive edition of Pokémon switch -late 2019/ early 2020?)
In
I really don't know if I should commend your optimism or not but...
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