There's no way the generation is only half over. PS5 either late 2019 or in 2020. PS4 ain't hitting 140 M.
A New ERA: Predict the lifetime sales for the PS4, Xbox One, Nintendo Switch, and Nintendo 3DS
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
- Status
There's no way the generation is only half over. PS5 either late 2019 or in 2020. PS4 ain't hitting 140 M.
PS4 - 123M.- It should be way over 100million by the end of 2020, and that's when I think ps5 will happen, but it will never get the post-successor legs of the ps2 because it won't be sold at <100€ all around the world.
XB1 - 45M.- the X seems to be more about slowing the loss of yearly sales than increasing them.
3DS - 74M.- Not much life left to expect more
Switch - 73.9M.- the easiness in which some people are calling wii numbers is perplexing to me, what I see right now is a lot of core users enthusiastic about the machine, and that's good, but I have yet to see proof of any 'blue oceans' coming forward.
XB1 - 45M.- the X seems to be more about slowing the loss of yearly sales than increasing them.
3DS - 74M.- Not much life left to expect more
Switch - 73.9M.- the easiness in which some people are calling wii numbers is perplexing to me, what I see right now is a lot of core users enthusiastic about the machine, and that's good, but I have yet to see proof of any 'blue oceans' coming forward.
PS4- 115 Million, I think it's got another 3-4 strong years in it. Not expecting PS5 until 2021.
3DS- 75 Million. The 3DS has maybe one holiday season left in it after this year. Don't see it passing this.
Switch- 60 Million minimum, expecting around 80 million. Really excited to see where Switch falls.
Xbone- 60 Million maximum, probably closer to the tune of 50 million.
3DS- 75 Million. The 3DS has maybe one holiday season left in it after this year. Don't see it passing this.
Switch- 60 Million minimum, expecting around 80 million. Really excited to see where Switch falls.
Xbone- 60 Million maximum, probably closer to the tune of 50 million.
PS4 - 130 million. Going off Sony's forecast they'll be at 79 million by the end of March next year. I think they can get another 50 million as they drop the price. We might see something like:
FY19 - 16 million
FY20 - 12 million
FY21 - 10 million (PS5 releases during this)
FY22 - 7 million
FY23 - 4 million
I guess a lot of that depends on when they release the PS5. March 2018 is probably equivalent in terms of the sales timeline to March 2005 for the PS2 (it's hard to compare since the PS2 had such a staggered launch). After March 2005 the PS2 sold another 65 million. I don't think the PS4 can have the same legs, a mature Switch selling for $199 might take some of that family/kid oriented audience that comes later in the generation, and the PS4 doesn't have the same amount of family friendly titles as the PS2 did. Either way, obviously a fantastic performance, and a lot of that comes down to Sony's ability to be relevant in practically every market which is something Microsoft obviously is terrible at, with Nintendo struggling as well (although improving recently).
Switch - 85 million. Definitely the hardest to predict since we have the least amount of information. If Nintendo hit their forecast (and I think that's a safe assumption) they'll be at 16.7 million by the end of March, which is really good after only 13 months. It looks like they're going to have handheld sales in Japan, so I think 25 million is on the cards there. So from that point it needs to sell 60 million combined in the US/Europe/ROTW to reach 85 million, which I think it achievable.
Xbox One - 45 million. Who knows really since Microsoft don't provide shipment information any more. I'm assuming it's currently at 30 million. I don't see the One X having a lasting impact beyond this holiday - nothing in the history of the marketplace tells me a lot of people are interested in paying $500 to play the same games at an increased resolution and I don't see the One X changing that. Sales have pretty much flatlined outside of the US/UK and even in those markets they're lagging well behind the PS4 and now the Switch. Microsoft don't seem to have much interest in trying to draw in new users with software exclusives, rather they are happy to milk their existing user base through Xbox Live and GaaS offerings. I'll be very, very, very interested to see where they go from here and if they'll be bothered putting the necessary resources into another console launch
FY19 - 16 million
FY20 - 12 million
FY21 - 10 million (PS5 releases during this)
FY22 - 7 million
FY23 - 4 million
I guess a lot of that depends on when they release the PS5. March 2018 is probably equivalent in terms of the sales timeline to March 2005 for the PS2 (it's hard to compare since the PS2 had such a staggered launch). After March 2005 the PS2 sold another 65 million. I don't think the PS4 can have the same legs, a mature Switch selling for $199 might take some of that family/kid oriented audience that comes later in the generation, and the PS4 doesn't have the same amount of family friendly titles as the PS2 did. Either way, obviously a fantastic performance, and a lot of that comes down to Sony's ability to be relevant in practically every market which is something Microsoft obviously is terrible at, with Nintendo struggling as well (although improving recently).
Switch - 85 million. Definitely the hardest to predict since we have the least amount of information. If Nintendo hit their forecast (and I think that's a safe assumption) they'll be at 16.7 million by the end of March, which is really good after only 13 months. It looks like they're going to have handheld sales in Japan, so I think 25 million is on the cards there. So from that point it needs to sell 60 million combined in the US/Europe/ROTW to reach 85 million, which I think it achievable.
Xbox One - 45 million. Who knows really since Microsoft don't provide shipment information any more. I'm assuming it's currently at 30 million. I don't see the One X having a lasting impact beyond this holiday - nothing in the history of the marketplace tells me a lot of people are interested in paying $500 to play the same games at an increased resolution and I don't see the One X changing that. Sales have pretty much flatlined outside of the US/UK and even in those markets they're lagging well behind the PS4 and now the Switch. Microsoft don't seem to have much interest in trying to draw in new users with software exclusives, rather they are happy to milk their existing user base through Xbox Live and GaaS offerings. I'll be very, very, very interested to see where they go from here and if they'll be bothered putting the necessary resources into another console launch
PS4: 120 million
It's not selling faster than the Wii, but Sony will support it for longer.
Switch: 100+ million
Super hard to predict. Two considerations:
3DS: 75-80 million
I think it will end up slightly below the GBA. The New 2DS XL and the New 3DS XL will make for a decent final push.
Xbox One: 60-70 million
Do we have any recent data? I don't think it will reach 360 numbers but I honestly don't know.
It's not selling faster than the Wii, but Sony will support it for longer.
Switch: 100+ million
Super hard to predict. Two considerations:
- There will be more than one Switch in many households. Unlike the Wii and the Wii U, kids will want their own Switch to play outside, especially with games like Pokémon and Animal Crossing.
- The 3DS won't be around for much longer. This means that at some point Nintendo will focus all of its resources (marketing and development) on the Switch.
3DS: 75-80 million
I think it will end up slightly below the GBA. The New 2DS XL and the New 3DS XL will make for a decent final push.
Xbox One: 60-70 million
Do we have any recent data? I don't think it will reach 360 numbers but I honestly don't know.
PS4: 120m
XO: 45m
Switch: 85m
3DS: 75m
I think PS4 will continue to be manufactured well into next gen, and keep ticking over nicely as the price continues to drop thanks to cheaper 'super slim' like revisions.
MS will drop the XO like a bad habit as soon as they need a new system to go up against the PS5. They have no history of supporting older platforms, and regardless of what they say about generations no longer existing, they'd be insane to shackle any next gen software to such outdated hardware, never mind third parties having no reason to hobble their games for such a money burning move. As such, while I think the XOX will sell well to their hardcore fanbase in the US and UK to a far lesser extent, I really don't see them selling more than another dozen million than they've most likely limped through already before 2020ish.
Switch will sell gangbusters, and XL/new/2DS like hardware revisions will maintain long term demand, as will Pokemon once it hits, but I just can't see them keeping up this current crazy momentum forever, fuelled as it is by far outside the average, simply incredible software releases, and the 'cool new tech' novelty factor being a hybrid system has right now, to be able to sustain such a massive demand long term. In the end it'll be their second best selling 'home console' like system, but I think lack of third parties and having blown their wad so early with the major franchises will prevent them topping the Wii. I'd expect a 'Switch 2' to replace a couple of years after 9th gen kicks off as well, maybe in 2022.
3DS is already pretty much done. Another few million before the Switch becomes the only name in the Nintendo market makes sense though.
XO: 45m
Switch: 85m
3DS: 75m
I think PS4 will continue to be manufactured well into next gen, and keep ticking over nicely as the price continues to drop thanks to cheaper 'super slim' like revisions.
MS will drop the XO like a bad habit as soon as they need a new system to go up against the PS5. They have no history of supporting older platforms, and regardless of what they say about generations no longer existing, they'd be insane to shackle any next gen software to such outdated hardware, never mind third parties having no reason to hobble their games for such a money burning move. As such, while I think the XOX will sell well to their hardcore fanbase in the US and UK to a far lesser extent, I really don't see them selling more than another dozen million than they've most likely limped through already before 2020ish.
Switch will sell gangbusters, and XL/new/2DS like hardware revisions will maintain long term demand, as will Pokemon once it hits, but I just can't see them keeping up this current crazy momentum forever, fuelled as it is by far outside the average, simply incredible software releases, and the 'cool new tech' novelty factor being a hybrid system has right now, to be able to sustain such a massive demand long term. In the end it'll be their second best selling 'home console' like system, but I think lack of third parties and having blown their wad so early with the major franchises will prevent them topping the Wii. I'd expect a 'Switch 2' to replace a couple of years after 9th gen kicks off as well, maybe in 2022.
3DS is already pretty much done. Another few million before the Switch becomes the only name in the Nintendo market makes sense though.
XboxOne family: 55m Microsoft has been struggling to expand their userbase and i see them continuing to do so X is aimed at a very small audience due to its price, they have a very pronounced lack of compeling exclusives and they are far behind in tempo compared to Sony. Launching their next generation after Sony could be very hard to overcome but at the same time launching before means X life would be very short which is not very interesting. I can't see anyway Xbox One gains momentum before the next generation is here.
PS4 family: (110-120 which i will put as) 115m Right now Sony is in a very sweet position, with probably 75m sold at the end of the year and their strong line up for 2018 i think 100m is a lock, the question is how more they can sell beyond that. I think next year will be another huge for Sony, similar to 2016 and 2017 thanks to Spiderman which is the only title i see gaining huge appeal beyond the hardcore demographic Sony is targeting at the moment, 2019 will slow down since preparations for the new console will start and i see a 2020 ps5 release which will slow down drastically ps4 numbers. +-20m 2018, +-12m 2019 and +-5m 2020 puts the ps4 family in the range bewteen 110m and 120m.
Switch family: Switch is in its early life (this is its 7th month in the market) so is the hardest to predict, and also the fact that Nintendo is a destempo of Sony and Microsoft makes the predictions way more tricky. Since that is the case i will give 3 possible outcomes and highlight the one i this is the most likely to occur.
1) 80m: this is the most conservative one, and i think the minimum numbers for the Switch. Right now Switch has huge momentum in its favor and Nintendo is handeling the buzz amazingly well, 16.7m in its first year seems almost a lock at this point and first years don't tend to be the best ones. If then you take into consideration that Pokemon, Animal Crossing and Smash are yet to come, the price right now is very high for a handeld and probably will go down, Switch seems like an easy devise to make revisions of to satisfy diferent target audiences and that it will probably have a life cycle of 6-7 years (2023-2024) Nintendo will have to make a massive mistake not to reach this number just by what we know so far.
2)130m: that is my prediction for the switch, with all i have mentioned above Switch is in a very good spot and i will say 80m is the most conservative estimation i can make. 130m seems a lot but i don't think is that difficult to imagine. Switch and the IPs it attracts have a wider appeal than any other console, and while it works as a home console, in many ways is acting like a handheld, the most important onebeing that i don't see unusual more than one Switch per house, which can increase a lot its numbers. Add to that the possibilty of Nintendo creating a new IP with huge mass appeal like in the DS-Wii era, another Mario and Zelda for the console and new and varied revisions, i think 130m are reachable. Maybe is the high end of the predictions, being 120m the most safe one, but i still think it is a very reasonable number.
3)+150m: this one is here just by 1 possible event that may or may not occur, but if that event were to happen i think 150m is the minimum it would sell, that event is of course a deal between Nintendo and Tencent to release the Nintendo Switch in the Chinese market. There are rumours in the air, mostly because of Arena of Valor being on the Switch, that those 2 giants are having conversations, obviously we can't say for certain that this is happening but that is the fun of predictions i guess. Right now the Chinese console market is one with huge potential but hard to enter thanks to the lack of home console culture in china and the restictions of the Chinese goverment, Sony and Microsoft are trying to get into the market slowly and Nintendo is far behind, but with a deal with Tencent, Nintendo with the Switch could get the first position easily and if it were to take off in that market the numbers would probably be extremly high. Again, that is based in speculation and some not strong rumors so is hard to bet on this one, but i think there is enough here to consider it a possibility worth to explore
PS4 family: (110-120 which i will put as) 115m Right now Sony is in a very sweet position, with probably 75m sold at the end of the year and their strong line up for 2018 i think 100m is a lock, the question is how more they can sell beyond that. I think next year will be another huge for Sony, similar to 2016 and 2017 thanks to Spiderman which is the only title i see gaining huge appeal beyond the hardcore demographic Sony is targeting at the moment, 2019 will slow down since preparations for the new console will start and i see a 2020 ps5 release which will slow down drastically ps4 numbers. +-20m 2018, +-12m 2019 and +-5m 2020 puts the ps4 family in the range bewteen 110m and 120m.
Switch family: Switch is in its early life (this is its 7th month in the market) so is the hardest to predict, and also the fact that Nintendo is a destempo of Sony and Microsoft makes the predictions way more tricky. Since that is the case i will give 3 possible outcomes and highlight the one i this is the most likely to occur.
1) 80m: this is the most conservative one, and i think the minimum numbers for the Switch. Right now Switch has huge momentum in its favor and Nintendo is handeling the buzz amazingly well, 16.7m in its first year seems almost a lock at this point and first years don't tend to be the best ones. If then you take into consideration that Pokemon, Animal Crossing and Smash are yet to come, the price right now is very high for a handeld and probably will go down, Switch seems like an easy devise to make revisions of to satisfy diferent target audiences and that it will probably have a life cycle of 6-7 years (2023-2024) Nintendo will have to make a massive mistake not to reach this number just by what we know so far.
2)130m: that is my prediction for the switch, with all i have mentioned above Switch is in a very good spot and i will say 80m is the most conservative estimation i can make. 130m seems a lot but i don't think is that difficult to imagine. Switch and the IPs it attracts have a wider appeal than any other console, and while it works as a home console, in many ways is acting like a handheld, the most important onebeing that i don't see unusual more than one Switch per house, which can increase a lot its numbers. Add to that the possibilty of Nintendo creating a new IP with huge mass appeal like in the DS-Wii era, another Mario and Zelda for the console and new and varied revisions, i think 130m are reachable. Maybe is the high end of the predictions, being 120m the most safe one, but i still think it is a very reasonable number.
3)+150m: this one is here just by 1 possible event that may or may not occur, but if that event were to happen i think 150m is the minimum it would sell, that event is of course a deal between Nintendo and Tencent to release the Nintendo Switch in the Chinese market. There are rumours in the air, mostly because of Arena of Valor being on the Switch, that those 2 giants are having conversations, obviously we can't say for certain that this is happening but that is the fun of predictions i guess. Right now the Chinese console market is one with huge potential but hard to enter thanks to the lack of home console culture in china and the restictions of the Chinese goverment, Sony and Microsoft are trying to get into the market slowly and Nintendo is far behind, but with a deal with Tencent, Nintendo with the Switch could get the first position easily and if it were to take off in that market the numbers would probably be extremly high. Again, that is based in speculation and some not strong rumors so is hard to bet on this one, but i think there is enough here to consider it a possibility worth to explore
Predictions
PS4 - 122M (based on the momentum and known 2018/2019 big hitters. However, external influence resulting in PS5 announcing in late 2019 and releasing in 2020)
XB1 - 51M (unexciting lineup, but with a small boost by XB1X. I see MS wanting to start next gen early, announcing XB2 in 2019 and releasing in 2020)
SW - 112M (solid releases with Nintendo prolonging the lifespan of the system with new iterations due to success of the system. Average of 14M over 8 years, with new hardware announced in 2023 and releasing in 2024)
PS4 - 122M (based on the momentum and known 2018/2019 big hitters. However, external influence resulting in PS5 announcing in late 2019 and releasing in 2020)
XB1 - 51M (unexciting lineup, but with a small boost by XB1X. I see MS wanting to start next gen early, announcing XB2 in 2019 and releasing in 2020)
SW - 112M (solid releases with Nintendo prolonging the lifespan of the system with new iterations due to success of the system. Average of 14M over 8 years, with new hardware announced in 2023 and releasing in 2024)
OP
OP
26-30 million, per Ubisoft and EA at the end of December 2016
PS4: 97 million: I think it will slow down somewhat over the next couple of years, but it's already sold quite a lot, and momentum should carry it to the high 90s.
Xbox One: 46 million Difficult to guess on, but this sounds about right to me.
3DS: 77 million: It's basically done by this point, just the last few bits of sales that it can eke out.
Switch: 130 million: It's got all of the momentum around it, and it's still got big stuff like Pokemon yet to come. It might not hit DS numbers, but it's going to be the it item to buy for the next 4+ years.
Xbox One: 46 million Difficult to guess on, but this sounds about right to me.
3DS: 77 million: It's basically done by this point, just the last few bits of sales that it can eke out.
Switch: 130 million: It's got all of the momentum around it, and it's still got big stuff like Pokemon yet to come. It might not hit DS numbers, but it's going to be the it item to buy for the next 4+ years.
I think you're the only one predicting the XBO will sell more than the Switch.
Remnds me a bit of the Sony is doomed thread from 2012??? Some are good but yeah, lots of people predicting with no logic and just fanboy wishes.
lol.
Switch is not even going to out sell the Ps4 man.
PS4: 120 million sold units. This weeks Playstation event showed that Sony still has plenty enough software coming out to keep the train going. Plus Sony keeps producing their legacy systems well after launching their succesors.
Xbox One: 55 million. I see Microsoft moving away from their consoles to refocus on windows even more. The xbox brand now is more of an extension of windows.
3DS: 75 million. The device is going to hit 70 million this year alone. 5 million over the next 2 to 3 years is doable. Nintendo will support the machine with software through 2018 which will keep interest up, after which they can still send new shipments of hardware and software through 2019 and 2020.
Switch: 160 million. Surprised at the estimates here, but you folks are underestimating the Switch...again.
A couple things to consider:
-we haven't been able to accurately gauge demand for the Switch yet because of supply issues. Yet despite that, Switch has managed to snag the top hardware spot many times over. When supply is finally there, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Switch start selling similar to the DS.
-Whilst having a very strong launch year sales and quality wise, Nintendo has used only 1 of its biggest brands to sell the Switch(Mario). The other series released have overperformed compared to earlier installments(Zelda, Splatoon). This bodes VERY well for when Nintendo decides to launch Pokemon and Animal Crossing. However, this may also mean smaller series like Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem and Tomodachi Collection are poised to overperform similar to Zelda and Splatoon. This significantly expands the amount of BIG titles that can keep up momentum.
-Switch didn't start in the hole where the 3DS started, sales wise. That means that any revision, price cut, new bundle, colours, etc. can only add to a product that people already desire. It means that all those 'tricks' can only extend the ceiling of the Switch in terms of LTD sales.
With the 3DS you always had the sense that it sold despite the product itself being so undesirable. As if all the revisions, price cuts, etc. were to obscure the main usp's itself(2DS says hi!). In fact I think it says a lot about your product when you need a price cut of almost half in order to get people to buy it.
Switch will never have these issues. Even at $300, people actually WANT it. Badly. (compared to the 3DS's lower entry price of $250). Every pricecut that gets it lower then that will only spur demand back to the levels we have now.
The above are (some of) the reasons I expect Switch to very, very high.
Xbox One: 55 million. I see Microsoft moving away from their consoles to refocus on windows even more. The xbox brand now is more of an extension of windows.
3DS: 75 million. The device is going to hit 70 million this year alone. 5 million over the next 2 to 3 years is doable. Nintendo will support the machine with software through 2018 which will keep interest up, after which they can still send new shipments of hardware and software through 2019 and 2020.
Switch: 160 million. Surprised at the estimates here, but you folks are underestimating the Switch...again.
A couple things to consider:
-we haven't been able to accurately gauge demand for the Switch yet because of supply issues. Yet despite that, Switch has managed to snag the top hardware spot many times over. When supply is finally there, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Switch start selling similar to the DS.
-Whilst having a very strong launch year sales and quality wise, Nintendo has used only 1 of its biggest brands to sell the Switch(Mario). The other series released have overperformed compared to earlier installments(Zelda, Splatoon). This bodes VERY well for when Nintendo decides to launch Pokemon and Animal Crossing. However, this may also mean smaller series like Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem and Tomodachi Collection are poised to overperform similar to Zelda and Splatoon. This significantly expands the amount of BIG titles that can keep up momentum.
-Switch didn't start in the hole where the 3DS started, sales wise. That means that any revision, price cut, new bundle, colours, etc. can only add to a product that people already desire. It means that all those 'tricks' can only extend the ceiling of the Switch in terms of LTD sales.
With the 3DS you always had the sense that it sold despite the product itself being so undesirable. As if all the revisions, price cuts, etc. were to obscure the main usp's itself(2DS says hi!). In fact I think it says a lot about your product when you need a price cut of almost half in order to get people to buy it.
Switch will never have these issues. Even at $300, people actually WANT it. Badly. (compared to the 3DS's lower entry price of $250). Every pricecut that gets it lower then that will only spur demand back to the levels we have now.
The above are (some of) the reasons I expect Switch to very, very high.
OP
OP
I would love for the Switch to sell that much, but given Nintendo's history of being unable to sustain momentum, I doubt it will sell long enough for it to do that much, to be honest.
I think you're the only other person to mention China in here besides me. I don't think this rumor can be overlooked right now when predicting Switch sales. PS4 and Xbox 1 are already in China, so it stands to reason that Nintendo no doubt will try and enter that market as well. But sales are not good for those two consoles, and someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe they were around 1 million each, which is pitiful compared to what they could be given China's large gaming population. Now, I don't think Nintendo and the Switch will blow open China as a huge emergent console market rivaling NA, EU and Japan, but it's a small possibility. Regulations and restrictions definitely put a damper on things, but that's also a factor in why I believe Nintendo would excel where Sony and Microsoft fail. The major selling Nintendo games are games that aren't in any major need of censorship or regulating or completely changed localization. They don't often depict real world violence or thoughts/ideas that the Chinese government would find necessary to regulate. Combine that with the partnership they have with Tencent and Arena of Valor, the biggest mobile game in China, and the fact they've been actively trying to localize their games already for Taiwan, Hong Kong, and other Chinese markets, leads me to believe that the Switch will completely dominate the other two systems in Asia whereas the PS4 will remain slightly in the lead in EU and NA.
Those Switch estimates are making me dizzy, guys.
Assuming PS5 and New Xbox arrive in holiday 2020...
PS4 : 115-120 million. Will peak in 2018 thanks to another price cut and its best batch of first-party system-sellers. Will reach 100M in early 2019, as sales begin to slow down. Holiday 2020 will be the perfect time to replace it. Will sell a few million more in the cross-gen period.
XB1 : 45-50 million. The XBX/PUBG combo is its last hurrah and will salvage the hardware numbers for 2017 (might even snatch first place in November NPD thanks to that, but that'll be the last time this gen) but after that it's going to go downhill real fast. It's only going to get deader in Europe and the gap will widen in the US in 2018. What's in store to counter Spider-man, GOW, etc ? Nothing of significance.
Considering the huge marketing push for XBX, I can't imagine Microsoft starting a new gen before 2020. 2018-2019 are going to be painful years I think.
Although I find this very unlikely, should next-gen start in holiday 2019 I'd remove 10 Million and 5 Million to my PS4 and XB1 predictions respectively.
Switch : 75-80 million. I think it'll follow a similar trajectory to the early years of PS4 until 2020 as Nintendo steadily release its big hitters and more third-party jump on the bandwagon. Then, next-gen is going to be problematic because it might get difficult or impossible to port the newest third-party games. Also, considering how Wii (2011-2012) and WiiU (2016) ended, absolutely nobody should trust Nintendo to properly handle the last years of their systems. Therefore I predict sales will crater in 2021 and the Switch successor will release some time in 2022.
I don't really care about 3DS numbers. Just hope it dies sooner than later.
I'd love it if this became an official predictions thread where we all come back to in a few years.
Assuming PS5 and New Xbox arrive in holiday 2020...
PS4 : 115-120 million. Will peak in 2018 thanks to another price cut and its best batch of first-party system-sellers. Will reach 100M in early 2019, as sales begin to slow down. Holiday 2020 will be the perfect time to replace it. Will sell a few million more in the cross-gen period.
XB1 : 45-50 million. The XBX/PUBG combo is its last hurrah and will salvage the hardware numbers for 2017 (might even snatch first place in November NPD thanks to that, but that'll be the last time this gen) but after that it's going to go downhill real fast. It's only going to get deader in Europe and the gap will widen in the US in 2018. What's in store to counter Spider-man, GOW, etc ? Nothing of significance.
Considering the huge marketing push for XBX, I can't imagine Microsoft starting a new gen before 2020. 2018-2019 are going to be painful years I think.
Although I find this very unlikely, should next-gen start in holiday 2019 I'd remove 10 Million and 5 Million to my PS4 and XB1 predictions respectively.
Switch : 75-80 million. I think it'll follow a similar trajectory to the early years of PS4 until 2020 as Nintendo steadily release its big hitters and more third-party jump on the bandwagon. Then, next-gen is going to be problematic because it might get difficult or impossible to port the newest third-party games. Also, considering how Wii (2011-2012) and WiiU (2016) ended, absolutely nobody should trust Nintendo to properly handle the last years of their systems. Therefore I predict sales will crater in 2021 and the Switch successor will release some time in 2022.
I don't really care about 3DS numbers. Just hope it dies sooner than later.
I'd love it if this became an official predictions thread where we all come back to in a few years.
Keeping in mind that PC is eating into dedicated console space (anecdotal, but almost all my friends have moved to PC, I did for a little but came back to consoles in the end.) I think there is going to be shrinkage in overall market of dedicated consoles, but as pointed out in other threads and posters like zomgbbqftw that's okay because each customer is spending more on digital stuff and subscriptions like PS+.
Uh numbers.
PS4 + Pro: 115 - 130 Million.
Xbox One + One X: 49 - 56 Million. (I think Xbox can claw some ground back with PUBG and other customer friendly initiatives)
Nintendo Switch: 40 - 70 million (Wildcard for me. Many people soured on WiiU. Not sure 1st party stuff matters so much among older millennials now)
Uh numbers.
PS4 + Pro: 115 - 130 Million.
Xbox One + One X: 49 - 56 Million. (I think Xbox can claw some ground back with PUBG and other customer friendly initiatives)
Nintendo Switch: 40 - 70 million (Wildcard for me. Many people soured on WiiU. Not sure 1st party stuff matters so much among older millennials now)
I like how people are bringing up supply constraints but currently Japan is the only market still seeing Switch shortages. They are for the most part available in most retailers in US, UK, and EU.
Japan is currently the only region still having supply issues. Go to your local Best Buys, and Targets and they are in stock. My Best Buy has over 50 regular consoles and 30+ mario bundles on its release night Thursday that were not preorders. *Mario Odyssey release night obviously*
Japan is currently the only region still having supply issues. Go to your local Best Buys, and Targets and they are in stock. My Best Buy has over 50 regular consoles and 30+ mario bundles on its release night Thursday that were not preorders. *Mario Odyssey release night obviously*
I'm only sure about PS4, 110 million.
The rest...
3DS, 70 million
XBO, 55 million
Switch, 75 million
I think Xbox is gonna have to think about next gen as far as competing.
Switch.... The hybrid nature, hand held gaming should help push it to at least 3ds numbers.
The Switch could see several iterations that might have it near 100 million.
Switch has a good shot for longevity.
The rest...
3DS, 70 million
XBO, 55 million
Switch, 75 million
I think Xbox is gonna have to think about next gen as far as competing.
Switch.... The hybrid nature, hand held gaming should help push it to at least 3ds numbers.
The Switch could see several iterations that might have it near 100 million.
Switch has a good shot for longevity.
OP
OP
Disingenuous at best, they are in stock now when Nintendo has specifically increased capacity and started to put them in stock right now beginning in October (and even then, going by retailer insiders in the NPD thread, supply is not steady or consistent). The stock shortages that are being referred to in this thread are the shortages so far, to point out that Switch has achieved tremendous success with them, an so could feasibly do even better without them, which hopefully is the case this Holiday.
PS4, 105-115 million
XBO, 50-60 million
Switch, 40-50 million
My opinion on the Switch seems to be an unpopular one, but I just can't see a Nintendo system selling insane amounts unless it drops to 3DS prices, and I'm not sure if that's possible with the Switch. I believe Nintendo handhelds have historically done so well not just because of the games, but because they're relatively cheap, and they can fit in your kids pocket, and the Switch is expensive and bulky. Also, when you consider the market for dedicated gaming portables seemingly shrinking smaller by the day, the Switch will have an uphill battle ahead of it. When looking as it as a home console, I also don't see the mass market consumers opting for a Switch over a PS4 when considering the PS4 is cheaper (at least where I live), more powerful, and will have all the big games (GTA, CoD, Battlefield, Sports) that the mainstream market cares about, as well as a competent online system. Basically, I believe it's a compromised portable system, and a compromised home console at the same time, and I believe this will reflect in future sales after the Nintendo hardcore, and gaming enthusiasts purchase theirs. Actually, the more I think about it, even 40-50 million seems too generous. Nonetheless, it'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few years as I'll happily be proven wrong.
XBO, 50-60 million
Switch, 40-50 million
My opinion on the Switch seems to be an unpopular one, but I just can't see a Nintendo system selling insane amounts unless it drops to 3DS prices, and I'm not sure if that's possible with the Switch. I believe Nintendo handhelds have historically done so well not just because of the games, but because they're relatively cheap, and they can fit in your kids pocket, and the Switch is expensive and bulky. Also, when you consider the market for dedicated gaming portables seemingly shrinking smaller by the day, the Switch will have an uphill battle ahead of it. When looking as it as a home console, I also don't see the mass market consumers opting for a Switch over a PS4 when considering the PS4 is cheaper (at least where I live), more powerful, and will have all the big games (GTA, CoD, Battlefield, Sports) that the mainstream market cares about, as well as a competent online system. Basically, I believe it's a compromised portable system, and a compromised home console at the same time, and I believe this will reflect in future sales after the Nintendo hardcore, and gaming enthusiasts purchase theirs. Actually, the more I think about it, even 40-50 million seems too generous. Nonetheless, it'll be interesting to see what happens in the next few years as I'll happily be proven wrong.
Last edited:
Guessing completely out of the effing blue, with no figures to back me up or anything:
PS4 - 125 million (45 million Pro's)
Xbox One - 60 million (10 million One X's)
Switch - 75 - 90 million (boosted in Year 2/3 by Pokemon, but system lifetime cut short by revision/Switch 2, because that's what Nintendo would do)
Either way, healthy sales for all. Who said that smartphones were going to kill the console gaming market again? That's right,idiots.
Okay, maybe that's a bit strong - but trying to predict something like that based on then-current trends was ultimately proven to be a foolish mistake.
Oh yes - what of the rumours that Microsoft's current head honcho isn't a fan of Xbox at all? If the numbers don't add up financially, will there even be an Xbox next gen? Is that even worth thinking about?
PS4 - 125 million (45 million Pro's)
Xbox One - 60 million (10 million One X's)
Switch - 75 - 90 million (boosted in Year 2/3 by Pokemon, but system lifetime cut short by revision/Switch 2, because that's what Nintendo would do)
Either way, healthy sales for all. Who said that smartphones were going to kill the console gaming market again? That's right,
Okay, maybe that's a bit strong - but trying to predict something like that based on then-current trends was ultimately proven to be a foolish mistake.
Oh yes - what of the rumours that Microsoft's current head honcho isn't a fan of Xbox at all? If the numbers don't add up financially, will there even be an Xbox next gen? Is that even worth thinking about?
Last edited:
I edited my post so no one is mentioned, but you replied :P
I mean... 70 million for Xbox One? How in the hell do you think it will reach that? It is impossible dude lol.
I don't even know how many Xbox One units they sold as of now, I just threw a number out there since I never bothered to check lol
I think Switch will be above 3DS in the RoW and either right around but below or right around but above 3DS in Japan. I'm thinking it'll do above 70 million in this way.
A big thing to see with Switch is how fast they can transition to expanding the installed base among women and children, through releasing core expanded audience properties like AC, Pokemon, and 2D Mario, by creating new software to appeal to these sorts of customers, and by lowering the price. Nintendo is really energizing their base with 3D Zelda and 3D Mario, both of mythical proportions, and they are encouraging portable LAN culture through their multiplayer offerings. I think they were right to start this way--it separates them from mobile. But ultimately, they need to push other aspects of their traditional coalition going forward.
Another thing to watch with Switch is how much it encourages western developers to try it out. It is going to offer a uniquely successful and uniquely powerful portable console for trying to see if there is an audience for mainstream western games on the go. If Switch can take off wrt to this hypothetical new profile as well that would be quite the breakthrough in expanding Nintendo's audience.
A big thing to see with Switch is how fast they can transition to expanding the installed base among women and children, through releasing core expanded audience properties like AC, Pokemon, and 2D Mario, by creating new software to appeal to these sorts of customers, and by lowering the price. Nintendo is really energizing their base with 3D Zelda and 3D Mario, both of mythical proportions, and they are encouraging portable LAN culture through their multiplayer offerings. I think they were right to start this way--it separates them from mobile. But ultimately, they need to push other aspects of their traditional coalition going forward.
Another thing to watch with Switch is how much it encourages western developers to try it out. It is going to offer a uniquely successful and uniquely powerful portable console for trying to see if there is an audience for mainstream western games on the go. If Switch can take off wrt to this hypothetical new profile as well that would be quite the breakthrough in expanding Nintendo's audience.
Yeah probably not doable. We are probably sitting at about 3-4m Pros sold so far worldwide.
We know from official word that since the Pros debut last November it's taken up about 20% of the share of total PS4 sales. Figuring about 15-16m units yearly that would put it around the 3-4m sold figure.
Impossible would be 40 million lifetime sales, when a console is at 35 already and sells an additional 5 million during the holidays.
70 million is a little over doubling the current total. The Xbox One is just 4 years old and the Xbox One X could increase the lifetime of the Xbox One family considerably. Just have a look at the history of Xbox 360 sales.
Xbox One X just have to do for Xbox One, what Kinect did for the Xbox 360.
PS4 - 120M - AAA / First Party software in 2018-2020 + family-friendly titles 2020 - beyond + price drops + marketing will keep the train going
XBO - 55M - I believe MS will get a head start on it's "next gen" whatever strategy, but grow their gaming business outside of the Xbox One in a big way sooner than later
NSW - 115M - the potential here seems extremely promising and a true return to form for Ninty
XBO - 55M - I believe MS will get a head start on it's "next gen" whatever strategy, but grow their gaming business outside of the Xbox One in a big way sooner than later
NSW - 115M - the potential here seems extremely promising and a true return to form for Ninty
Last edited:
- Status