So, this is where I'm at right now.
This is what I said at day start today. I felt like I could call with a high degree of certainty that Neki was going to be the night kill last night, but he wasn't. This is a mystery to me because Zipped, Vere, and I had more WIFOM and doubt surrounding us than Neki did, so to pick out the one player who would have the hardest time defending himself today based on his D3 standing is weird. Kopite being killed on N2 also did not feel right to me, because I just assumed Kopite had a single shot; I don't think scum assumed the same. I think I was missing pieces from this puzzle, though, and I might have found them.
I'm not going to dig up Zipped's case against Pancakes because it was conditional (😎) on Randvere being scum, but he voted her two days in a row. Simply, I think Zipped was killed partially to get Zipped off Pancake's back.
Here's another piece of evidence:
I think this could be where Pancakes realized that it was only a matter of time before Zipped was confirmed as town, and she as scum would certainly not try to counterclaim that, so in a towncore position Zipped would be able to go after her. I was immediately coming into today with the plan of having everyone mass claim to undo the Zipped knot and that was solved for me before I even had the chance.
The other thing here is the three towncore players left alive - myself, Vere, and Neki. I admit she may have pocketed me (as in, if she's scum; I've absolutely fallen for it); Vere town reads her; and Neki is somewhere in the middle, but he's not been actively gunning for Pancakes, either.
I would be able to brush off who Zipped was gunning for as the kill suspect because that's just WIFOM, but the timing of Zipped's death and the Kopite kill the previous night is a combination of facts that point in Pancakes' direction.
So, let me re-reread some of her earlier posts:
While Pancakes was adamant on trying to solve EC, EC was a safe choice to not draw attention to one's self. The case against EC was presented by Nat and myself, and I hanged out there pushing EC throughout D1. EC is anti-town by nature so he makes a good target. Tunneling in on that would give Pancakes a general air of towniness, regardless of whatever the outcome was because of some well-placed justification on how she wants to get rid of that distraction. Frankly, I don't blame her - that was a waste of time.
I've not really felt like Pancakes has led or started any wagons this game. Reviewing her D2, she accepted the case against Random based on Nat's flipped and what others had said about it. Pancakes eventually unvoted to play the part of the concerned townie after some others had raised points which favored Random. She tries to negotiate with me to vote for Bojack.
Captain presented a case on D3 where scum maybe juked a TvT D2 situation to make it seem like something bigger was going on. Pancakes was definitely on the cusp of that. It would be bold to try something like that as scum when there was no need to. But from her perspective, regardless of who flips, neither train would point back to her action here because neither was scum. It was not as risky a proposition as when a scum teammate was involved like on D1, where Pancakes did not move her vote at all.
On D3, Pancakes claimed that she was having doubts because Random's posts reading townie, but she did not state this on D2. The only reason she cited on D2 for switching off Random were that it was too quiet and that the Bojack case seemed more appealing.
Here's my last point: I mentioned an hour or so ago that scum is just trying to run the clock down. I see several people that feel legitimately lost today, but in the greater context of Pancakes' reticence to push her own directions previously, I find her reads concerning because they do not really offer a direction for today. It simply provides all the players ordered by perception, but Pancakes has not pressed anex or Captain or anyone else further in the almost 12 hours since day start.
It feels like Pancakes might be trying to run the clock down.
