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EA Has Provided A New Combined Install Base Estimate for PS4 & XB1 (READ OP)

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DontRaff

DontRaff

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Oct 27, 2017
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I trust EA's estimates. I mean their business is literally to sell games so why would they purposefully screw up their estimates for selling games. We know what PS4 sales are because Sony releases numbers. The only weak link in determining the total install base is xb1 and MS not releasing sales numbers (for good reason).

Also I would contribute the lower than expected xb1 numbers to possibly some users not turning on their xb1 for an extended period and maybe that factors into their estimates. Kinda weird though reading Microsoft's PR statements about more engagement and more revenue but then getting lower than expected estimates from EA.
 
Lwill

Lwill

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Oct 28, 2017
1,629
Rather or not XB1 is closer to 30 or 40 million, it doesn't affect the big picture:

1) Due to XB1's much weaker presence overseas, the PS4 is outselling the system more than 2:1 worldwide, and that gap will likely widen with time.

2) The Switch is predicted to overtake the XB1 in a year or so due to its worldwide success so far.

3) Despite all of this, the XB1 is still a success when it comes to profits, and it has shown impressive growth compared to last year that is at least partially due to the release of the XB1X.

TAH3145 said:
Any thing more than one sentence to back this up? Based on what Zhuge Ex has said and provided evidence to back up, you're wrong.
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As Zhuge Ex said, EA's estimates are legit, but they have to be excluding something.
 
mas8705

mas8705

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Oct 27, 2017
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bear force one said:
Kings of Comedy right here.
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Last I checked, I didn't tell a joke, and I doubt you were laughing.

For EA Access being in effect for close to four years now, has there been an actual growth in users? And if so, was that a contributing factor to the estimate? That's not that far-fetched to take into consideration if this is a service on one and not the other.

Hell, even if the answer was a simple, "No. Of course not." That'd be more of an answer than the three I've got so far.
 
Shpeshal Nick

Shpeshal Nick

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Oct 25, 2017
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travisbickle said:
Is that the difference?

Maybe EA over egged a little last time, so rounded down this time?

Seriously, the higher estimate number used on here is based around the theory that outside the US the XB1 has always been seliing at 1/2 the US rate (66/33). But we haven't had any outside US figures from MS since about April 2014.

Low estimates are always fobbed off with "it can't be selling that badly outside of the US can it?" But maybe it is.
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Outside ts core 5 countries of US/UK/AU/MEX/BRA?

Yeah it's probably barely selling. But if the US alone was 4 million in 2017, then adding in the other 4, safe to say that 3.8 is off by more than just 200k
 
Ravage

Ravage

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Oct 31, 2017
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This confirms my suspicion that the xbone is losing all steam (from whatever little they had in the first place) outside US.

If the 2.5:1 ratio holds, i guess we're looking at 110M ps4 and 44M xbone by the time next gen launches.
 

Deleted member 43

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mas8705 said:
Last I checked, I didn't tell a joke, and I doubt you were laughing.

For EA Access being in effect for close to four years now, has there been an actual growth in users? And if so, was that a contributing factor to the estimate? That's not that far-fetched to take into consideration if this is a service on one and not the other.

Hell, even if the answer was a simple, "No. Of course not." That'd be more of an answer than the three I've got so far.
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Look everyone, EA's game sales have nothing to do with how they arrived at these numbers.
 
Jaded Alyx

Jaded Alyx

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Oct 25, 2017
35,582
mas8705 said:
Last I checked, I didn't tell a joke, and I doubt you were laughing.

For EA Access being in effect for close to four years now, has there been an actual growth in users? And if so, was that a contributing factor to the estimate? That's not that far-fetched to take into consideration if this is a service on one and not the other.

Hell, even if the answer was a simple, "No. Of course not." That'd be more of an answer than the three I've got so far.
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I think everyone is just wondering what on earth does EA Access have to do with the number of consoles sold.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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One thing I'll say regarding whether or not EA doesn't include Japan for some reason, would you not have to assume they never included Japan in their estimates this gen? Wouldn't make sense to not include a region this year if you had beforehand.
 
Abylim

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This is very confusing. Why would they bother releasing information if it was wrong?
 
lordlad

lordlad

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Oct 27, 2017
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What are install base estimates? A miserable pile of numbers! But enough talk...Have at you!
 
mas8705

mas8705

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Oct 27, 2017
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Jaded Alyx said:
I think everyone is just wondering what on earth does EA Access have to do with the number of consoles sold.
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It wouldn't have had a full connection between EA Access Subscribers and systems sold, but one could argue that perhaps if there has been an increase of subs between the time the service launched to the time this was posted up, that could have been one way to make a rough estimate.

Much like most other things, it wouldn't have been the "definitive way" of doing it, but if we're talking about a service exclusive to a console, the dots could connect somehow.

Matt said:
Look everyone, EA's game sales have nothing to do with how they arrived at these numbers.
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Thank you Matt, that was what I was checking on if there was a connection or not to the service. It probably wasn't written correctly, but I admit I'm running on a few hours rest, so the words probably weren't typed in the way I thought I wrote it.
 
Poimandres

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Lwill said:
3) Despite all of this, the XB1 is still a success when it comes to profits, and it has shown impressive growth compared to last year that is at least partially due to the release of the XB1X.
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Do we actually know if this is true? Genuinely curious. I don't know how Microsoft reports their financials (eg; if Xbox is part of another division)

I remember years back we had graphs of profits vs spending for Playstation and Xbox that showed things like the PS3 wiping out all of Sony's Playstation profits up to that point, and that the "Xbox project" as a whole was a couple of billion away from turning a profit. But that was back from when they were reported on as their own entities right?
 

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Welfare said:
One thing I'll say regarding whether or not EA doesn't include Japan for some reason, would you not have to assume they never included Japan in their estimates this gen? Wouldn't make sense to not include a region this year if you had beforehand.
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That's... huh.
They may have changed their criteria for tracking, right? Nothing says they have to remain consistent, especially since it's for internal use only anyway.
 
N.Domixis

N.Domixis

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Oct 28, 2017
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Rocco said:
Well, not being #1 doesn't mean failure, but Sony has clearly "won" the gen.

But when you have money, video game history has shown us that you can always make comeback. Gamers are largely bi partisan and Microsoft is clearly making moves while Sony is fast asleep at the next gen wheel.
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If sleeping at the wheel means we get huge AAA first party exclusives then that's awesome! PS5 day 1 confirmed already then.
 
OP
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Aokiji

Aokiji

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Oct 25, 2017
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VallenValiant said:
Install base is not the same as NPD hardware sold. EA is very specific about focusing on the term "install base". NPD is about purchasing numbers, they are not directly equivalent though there are correlations.


Just because 4 million consoles are sold does not mean the install base increased by that amount. The mid-gen upgrade is a big factor in this.
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this seems to be the only ay they could be off by that much. they must have discounted console upgrades
 

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Ravage said:
This confirms my suspicion that the xbone is losing all steam (from whatever little they had in the first place) outside US.

If the 2.5:1 ratio holds, i guess we're looking at 110M ps4 and 44M xbone by the time next gen launches.
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So the Xbox One is only going to sell 6-9 million over the next two years?

Even when we get confirmation from Zhuge, people in here will ignore it and spout their own numbers because it conflicts with their views.
 

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2Blackcats said:
What? Nearly 50 % have +/gold.

You think 50% of people don't get patches or download games or whatever? That's a crazy number.

Or even update their os to support external storage and stuff?
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Think of markets outside of the US and Canada. Most people in, say, Japan or India or Singapore or whatever only sporadically connect their consoles to the internet. They take them home and play their games.
 
2Blackcats

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Phantom Thief said:
Think of markets outside of the US and Canada. Most people in, say, Japan or India or Singapore or whatever only sporadically connect their consoles to the internet. They take them home and play their games.
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They only have to connect once to be counted.

I think we're on different wavelengths here because you're mentioning countries that have excellent Internet.

I couldn't find any data on connected consoles after a quick Google.
 
TheTruthofKayle

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So ? If in this 29.something there aren't xbx numbers it should be how it was predicted by zhuge and we are around 33 millions what's the prob?
 
TheTruthofKayle

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Poimandres said:
Do we actually know if this is true? Genuinely curious. I don't know how Microsoft reports their financials (eg; if Xbox is part of another division)

I remember years back we had graphs of profits vs spending for Playstation and Xbox that showed things like the PS3 wiping out all of Sony's Playstation profits up to that point, and that the "Xbox project" as a whole was a couple of billion away from turning a profit. But that was back from when they were reported on as their own entities right?
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Yes they released numbers and Xbox is growing and making great earnings
Nadella seem very happy with those
 

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Poimandres said:
Do we actually know if this is true? Genuinely curious. I don't know how Microsoft reports their financials (eg; if Xbox is part of another division)?
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I don't think we do. We have had long threads about this in the past, and once you push past the surface and get into the details, things get very murky. Much seems to depend on where budget lines are drawn and how things get defined.
 
Dr. Feel Good

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It's quite amazing how the cycle seems to go in the third console being a screw up.

NES and SNES brought the Nintendo 64
Master System and Genesis brought the Saturn
GameCube and Wii brought the Wii U
PlayStation 1 and PlayStation 2 brought the 3
Xbox and Xbox 360 brought the Xbox One
 
TheRealBigRich

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Poimandres said:
Do we actually know if this is true? Genuinely curious. I don't know how Microsoft reports their financials (eg; if Xbox is part of another division)

I remember years back we had graphs of profits vs spending for Playstation and Xbox that showed things like the PS3 wiping out all of Sony's Playstation profits up to that point, and that the "Xbox project" as a whole was a couple of billion away from turning a profit. But that was back from when they were reported on as their own entities right?
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I think this is the impossible question to answer but I honestly cant see how they would be currently losing money . They may very well be still in the negative but as far as making money I would guess they are making a sizable profit on Xbox now .
 
ethomaz

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Fighting against 30m or 35m doesn't change the numbers are pretty low coming from a successful previous gen.
MS lost a lot of ground this gen.
Let's see how the Xbox One 2 delivers in 2019/2020.
 
TheTruthofKayle

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Expy

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This shouldn't be surprising to anyone. Did anyone honestly believe that the sales were anywhere significantly higher than these estimates?
 
Poimandres

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TheRealBigRich said:
I think this is the impossible question to answer but I honestly cant see how they would be currently losing money . They may very well be still in the negative but as far as making money I would guess they are making a sizable profit on Xbox now .
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I guess it would depend on how much they spend on R&D, advertising etc?

I'm not doubting that they are making money, I'm just appealing to people who are well versed in this area to give some sort of indication.

Matt said:
That's about revenue, not profit, so lets make sure you both are on the same page before the arguing starts.
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Indeed profit is what I'm really interested in.

But, I totally understand that profit isn't the ONLY measure of success, especially for a company with plenty of irons in the fire like Microsoft.
 
Dave.

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Oct 27, 2017
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Poimandres said:
Do we actually know if this is true? Genuinely curious. I don't know how Microsoft reports their financials (eg; if Xbox is part of another division)

I remember years back we had graphs of profits vs spending for Playstation and Xbox that showed things like the PS3 wiping out all of Sony's Playstation profits up to that point, and that the "Xbox project" as a whole was a couple of billion away from turning a profit. But that was back from when they were reported on as their own entities right?
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We do not.

Microsoft split their reports of revenue/operating income in to 3 chunks, the one containing Xbox made 2.5B on 12.1B revenue this last quarter - this is the "More Personal Computing" division, which incudes Windows OS, Surface, Bing, Windows Mobile and probably other things too alongside Xbox.

The other two (more profitable) chunks are basically "Cloud" and "Office"
 
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