Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine

Dekuman · Dec 7, 2021

Putin is just waiting for Norstream 2 approval before invading. lol.

Also I hope Biden isn't painting a lightblue and yellow line to Obama's red line on Syria. If he doesn't want get involved, he should tell the Ukrainians now.
If he does, he should show up and get the freeloaders in NATO to committ as well.

TheGummyBear · Dec 7, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
It is Ukraine's fault!

Putin calls for not shifting responsibility for escalation around Ukraine on Russia

According to the Kremlin, the talks mainly centered round topics related to the Ukrainian crisis and the lack of progress in the implementation of the 2015 Minsk agreements

tass.com

Russia Manufactures the crisis, and then blame the west and then want concessions from the west.

Between how long it took for the Russian side to release its version if events, and the failure to mention any agreed steps forward except for ongoing discussion between envoys, this isn't looking very good.

It feels like Putin has either already decided on an invasion and today was just theater, or he didn't get the concessions out of the video meeting that he has been angling for.

loco · Dec 7, 2021

What is the U.N. doing about this?

LegendofJoe · Dec 7, 2021

The US signed a treaty with Ukraine that came at great cost to them (potentially losing their sovereignty) to make the world a safer place. We should honor that treaty and so should the UK. Mobilize in Eastern Europe and show Russia that NATO is not a dead alliance.

Xando · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
What is the U.N. doing about this?

When has the UN ever done anything meaningful involving major powers

poklane · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
What is the U.N. doing about this?

Russia is a permanent member on the security council, so fuck all.

loco · Dec 7, 2021

poklane said:
Russia is a permanent member on the security council, so fuck all.

Wow so what is the point of the U.N.? Why is so much money given to them?

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
What is the U.N. doing about this?

They can't do anything even if it wanted to. Russia has a permanent seat on the Security Council.

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
Wow so what is the point of the U.N.? Why is so much money given to them?

Not much really. Maybe manage smaller countries

Xando · Dec 7, 2021

Dekuman said:
Putin is just waiting for Norstream 2 approval before invading. lol.

Also I hope Biden isn't painting a lightblue and yellow line to Obama's red line on Syria. If he doesn't want get involved, he should tell the Ukrainians now.
If he does, he should show up and get the freeloaders in NATO to committ as well.

Nordstream 2 is dead the moment he invades ukraine. New german government is more hawkish on russia than the previous one

chaostrophy · Dec 7, 2021

mnz said:
There was a big everything-must-go sale after the fall of the iron curtain and how these new emerging countries handled it is the best starting point to explain today's political climate everywhere from East Germany to Poland, Belarus and Russia. Possibly the biggest transfer of wealth in human history. It's weirdly not a very well covered topic today, but probably for a reason.

There's a new book on this subject, Taking Stock of Shock, it looks interesting.

poklane · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
Wow so what is the point of the U.N.? Why is so much money given to them?

When it comes to war: absolutely none. A lot of people will claim that thanks to the UN we haven't had any big conflicts between the world's biggest powers but I'd call bullshit on that. The reason we haven't had such a war comes down to 2 reasons: guaranteed economic collapse and possible nuclear annihilation. While trade obviously existed pre-WWII the world economy wasn't nearly as globalized as it has been post-WWII, if you had a big war these days and the adversaries stopped trading with each other the economy of a country like Russia would completely collapse within the week.

Something Creative · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
Wow so what is the point of the U.N.? Why is so much money given to them?

BringBackSonics said:
Not much really. Maybe manage smaller countries

Blame the US, Russia and other major countries for massively undermining the legitimacy and capability of international institutions. Acting like they should just be blown away then is missing the point.

Mr Swine · Dec 7, 2021

Any chance that Russia invades Finland and Sweden since they aren't members of NATO?

kmfdmpig · Dec 7, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
It is Ukraine's fault!

Putin calls for not shifting responsibility for escalation around Ukraine on Russia

According to the Kremlin, the talks mainly centered round topics related to the Ukrainian crisis and the lack of progress in the implementation of the 2015 Minsk agreements

tass.com

Russia Manufactures the crisis, and then blame the west and then want concessions from the west.

Taking a play out of Pyongyang's playbook in that regard.

poklane · Dec 7, 2021

Mr Swine said:
Any chance that Russia invades Finland and Sweden since they aren't members of NATO?

Not unless they move towards NATO. Would also be a lot harder for Russia to come up with a bullshit excuse since neither country has a noteworthy population of ethnic Russians or Russian speakers. Both countries also are part of the EU which should provide some sort of protection.

Xando · Dec 7, 2021

Mr Swine said:
Any chance that Russia invades Finland and Sweden since they aren't members of NATO?

I reckon the moment they invade ukraine sweden and finland will try to join NATO. Both are also part of the EU defense pact so i doubt Putin would try that

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

Mr Swine said:
Any chance that Russia invades Finland and Sweden since they aren't members of NATO?

Only if they move closer to NATO. Russia has made it clear that is a red line for them

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

Xando said:
I reckon the moment they invade ukraine sweden and finland will try to join NATO. Both are also part of the EU defense pact so i doubt Putin would try that

The good thing is, I believe both Sweden and Finland's military have started to work with NATO allies, so a decision could come quick and the transition would not be difficult.

Namaste · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
Wow so what is the point of the U.N.? Why is so much money given to them?

No point really it keeps communication open in theory but that's not really relevant in the 21st century.

It's basically a feel good group.

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

kmfdmpig said:
Taking a play out of Pyongyang's playbook in that regard.

yup, totally agree.

eonden · Dec 7, 2021

Sweden and Finland are basically part of NATO in all but name.They are some of the more active partners NATO has.

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

Well they did nothing really in 2014, so hard not to do less..

Biden told Putin that 'things we did not do in 2014, we are prepared to do now' if Russia escalates in Ukraine, top adviser says

The White House says President Joe Biden told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that the United States is prepared to launch strong economic measures should Russia invade Ukraine -- signaling that these new measures would pack a bigger punch than the sanctions issued in 2014 that...

www.cnn.com

"I will look you in the eye and tell you, as President Biden looked Putin in the eye and told him today, that things we did not do in 2014 we are prepared to do now," national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters Tuesday afternoon after Biden's call.

Mr Swine · Dec 7, 2021

poklane said:
Not unless they move towards NATO. Would also be a lot harder for Russia to come up with a bullshit excuse since neither country has a noteworthy population of ethnic Russians or Russian speakers. Both countries also are part of the EU which should provide some sort of protection.

Xando said:
I reckon the moment they invade ukraine sweden and finland will try to join NATO. Both are also part of the EU defense pact so i doubt Putin would try that

BringBackSonics said:
Only if they move closer to NATO. Russia has made it clear that is a red line for them

Ok, I hope it never happens

Jroc · Dec 7, 2021

loco said:
Wow so what is the point of the U.N.? Why is so much money given to them?

The U.N provides an important diplomatic framework even if it can't really force countries to do things (most of the time anyway). I think it's good that it keeps the world connected and in constant conversation even if it's toothless. As for the budget effectiveness, that's up for debate.

Fun Fact: the Korean War was technically the UN and South Korea vs China and North Korea. The USSR was boycotting the UN at the time, and Taiwan filled the seat of China, so it was a rare instance of the UN actually being able to exert force.

BossAttack · Dec 7, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
It is Ukraine's fault!

Putin calls for not shifting responsibility for escalation around Ukraine on Russia

According to the Kremlin, the talks mainly centered round topics related to the Ukrainian crisis and the lack of progress in the implementation of the 2015 Minsk agreements

tass.com

Russia Manufactures the crisis, and then blame the west and then want concessions from the west.

I'm telling you, it is literally Czechoslovakia all over again. The exact same tactics.

Forerunner · Dec 7, 2021

U.S. Military Steps Up Planning For Evacuation Operation In Ukraine As Crisis Deepens: Report (Updated)

News of more active contingency planning with regards to Ukraine came ahead of a meeting between Presidents Biden and Putin today.

www.thedrive.com

The Pentagon has been conducting more immediate planning for potential evacuations of U.S. diplomatic personnel and other American nationals from Ukraine in the event of a new, large-scale Russian military intervention into that country, according to a report from CNN. At the same time, U.S. officials are warning that there may be limited options to deter the Kremlin from conducting such an operation. This news came ahead of a virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden's with Russian President Vladimir Putin today over this brewing crisis, with intelligence assessments already warning for weeks that Russia could launch a new invasion of its neighbor as soon as January.

"Right now, the Pentagon is planning for a number of different scenarios in the event that an evacuation is necessary, ranging from a smaller evacuation of just nonessential U.S. government employees to a larger one involving a broader swath of American citizens," CNN reported. "The State Department would be responsible for ultimately determining whether an evacuation operation is necessary. Right now some planning is underway by the State Department's diplomatic security for either an authorized or ordered departure of diplomats from the country should the situation warrant it."

The CNN story did not include any details about exactly what a Ukraine NEO might look like if the U.S. military were to be called in to conduct it. Planning for such an operation could include the forward deployment of various American special operations and conventional forces to the territory of NATO allies bordering Ukraine to the west. The U.S. military already has a significant forward presence in Poland, for instance, that includes access to established airbases in that country that could be used to stage aircraft, personnel, and equipment. Last month, online flight tracking software picked up an unusual flurry of U.S. Air Force transport aircraft flying to the country of Djibouti in East Africa in what looked to be pre-positioning of forces for a possible NEO in neighboring Ethiopia.

Publicly, the State Department continues to stress that there is no need for any such evacuations from Ukraine now. Publicly, U.S. officials, as well as their Ukrainian counterparts, say that there are no indications that the Kremlin has actually decided to launch a new, large-scale military operation into Ukraine, either.

"We don't know that Putin has made up his mind to use force," Bill Burns, the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), said at the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council Summit yesterday, echoing sentiments that have previously emanated from the State Department and the Department of Defense. "What we do know is that he's putting the Russian military, the Russian security forces in a place where they could act in a pretty sweeping way."

CNN's suggests that the more active planning for potential evacuations is based on growing fears that a new Russian intervention in Ukraine may be increasingly inevitable, despite public statements downplaying those concerns. As part of her briefings to lawmakers, "Nuland ... acknowledged that the US' options to deter an invasion are fairly limited, a person familiar with the briefing said," according to that outlet.

How the crisis will now evolve following Biden and Putin's meeting today remains to be seen, but the U.S. government is clearly prudently preparing for a worst-case scenario.

Pheonix Will · Dec 7, 2021

ZeroMaverick said:
we WW3 or nah?

Edit: I probably shouldn't joke about it.

We were obliged to intervene in 2014 and did nothing, so our word is worth nothing,.

Deleted member 2752 · Dec 7, 2021

chaostrophy said:
There's a new book on this subject, Taking Stock of Shock, it looks interesting.

Thanks, I'll take a look.

Ensorcell · Dec 7, 2021

Pheonix Will said:
We were obliged to intervene in 2014 and did nothing, so our word is worth nothing,.

There is no word anyway. The U.S. has already said there is little they can do militarily if Russia invades Ukraine.

Asator · Dec 7, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
Interesting developments.

I'll believe it when I see it (well actually I hope we won't, but y'all get what I mean).

Deleted member 10445 · Dec 7, 2021

Mr Swine said:
Any chance that Russia invades Finland and Sweden since they aren't members of NATO?

I'm not exactly into politics, but I have to imagine Russia attacking Finland and Sweden would cause a shitstorm of the highest order. There is simply no way Europe and the US would stand idly by imo. No way would Russia risk that.

LProtagonist · Dec 7, 2021

I don't even know how worried this is supposed to make me at this point.

Golding · Dec 7, 2021

Idk what some of you are smoking on here.

russia cannot be allowed to do whatever they want imo.. if nothing is done if they invade Ukraine.. who else to say what they will do next?

Bryo4321 · Dec 7, 2021

Pheonix Will said:
We were obliged to intervene in 2014 and did nothing, so our word is worth nothing,.

Obliged by what? Ukraine is not a nato member yet. 2014 Ukraine and 2021 Ukraine are also pretty different. The position Obama admin was in in 2014 was extremely precarious. Don't forget who the DIA director was in 2014 either.

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

Bryo4321 said:
Obliged by what? Ukraine is not a nato member yet. 2014 Ukraine and 2021 Ukraine are also pretty different. The position Obama admin was in in 2014 was extremely precarious. Don't forget who the DIA director was in 2014 either.

the Budapest memorandum. But not one followed it, not Russia the US or Uk.

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

BossAttack said:
I'm telling you, it is literally Czechoslovakia all over again. The exact same tactics.

It's certainly playing out that way.

Dekuman · Dec 7, 2021

Xando said:
Nordstream 2 is dead the moment he invades ukraine. New german government is more hawkish on russia than the previous one

Asator said:
I'll believe it when I see it (well actually I hope we won't, but y'all get what I mean).

That's good to know. But once gas starts going what's to stop Russia from starting their shenanigans again? Will Europe cut off its own gas supply?

Pheonix Will · Dec 7, 2021

Bryo4321 said:
Obliged by what? Ukraine is not a nato member yet. 2014 Ukraine and 2021 Ukraine are also pretty different. The position Obama admin was in in 2014 was extremely precarious. Don't forget who the DIA director was in 2014 either.

The Budapest Momorandum, in exchange for giving up their nuclear arsenal the US, UK and Russia promised to protect Ukraines terratorial integrity.

A lot of people like to paint Ukraine as modern day czechoslovakia. There are quite a few analogies in line with that.

Typhon · Dec 7, 2021

Can we shut one of these topics down or merge them. Kind of annoying to follow this on two separate threads.

Nobleman Swerve · Dec 7, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
the Budapest memorandum. But not one followed it, not Russia the US or Uk.

The Budapest Memorandum didn't have provisions for signatories to commit to mutual military aid in the interest of Ukranian sovereignty ala Article 5. It only obligated the signatories to bring the matter to the UN security council - which is moot as with Russia being a permanent member, they can veto any motion for action. Which is pretty much what happened back in 2014.

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

Xando said:
Nordstream 2 is dead the moment he invades ukraine. New german government is more hawkish on russia than the previous one

The Green Party Leader, Baerbock who is the new FM is pretty hawkish about Russia and Ukraine, kind of feels different coming from a Green leader.

Bryo4321 · Dec 7, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
the Budapest memorandum. But not one followed it, not Russia the US or Uk.

we were never going to commit troops on the ground for that document, let's be honest. Nato Article 5 is the only way they would get that safety net but imo it's too late for that either. Still though, I hope for a diplomatic solution.

also to the folks dismissing sanctions, please I encourage you to really look at what has been proposed. I get how you feel, but this dismissive attitude comes of as ignorant imo.

everdom · Dec 7, 2021

What I don't understand is why now. It's fucking freezing. You think Russia of all countries would have learned the lessons of General Winter.

Xando · Dec 7, 2021

BringBackSonics said:
The Green Party Leader, Baerbock who is the new FM is pretty hawkish about Russia and Ukraine, kind of feels different coming from a Green leader.

Yeah and the FM and economy/energy ministry are both held by the greens which are probably the toughest on russia in the new goverment if anything happens NS2 is definitely gonna get shutdown.

orochi91 · Dec 7, 2021

Golding said:
Idk what some of you are smoking on here.

russia cannot be allowed to do whatever they want imo.. if nothing is done if they invade Ukraine.. who else to say what they will do next?

Technically, who else can Russia invade in Europe?

I was under the impression everyone else is part of the EU and/or NATO.

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

Typhon said:
Can we shut one of these topics down or merge them. Kind of annoying to follow this on two separate threads.

I just realized i've been accidentally posting in both threads. urgh.

ajoshi · Dec 7, 2021

everdom said:
What I don't understand is why now. It's fucking freezing. You think Russia of all countries would have learned the lessons of General Winter.

Because offense is more difficult in unrelenting mud/slush

Rasputitsa - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

BringBackSonics · Dec 7, 2021

orochi91 said:
Technically, who else can Russia invade in Europe?

I was under the impression everyone else is part of the EU and/or NATO.

Moldova and Ukraine are in neither NATO or the EU.

Finland and Sweden are not in NATO, but they are in EU (although the EU has no provisions for collective defense.)

merchantdude · Dec 7, 2021

everdom said:
What I don't understand is why now. It's fucking freezing. You think Russia of all countries would have learned the lessons of General Winter.

As the ground hardens it becomes actually a pretty suitable time slot for offensive, you can't wage offensive war in Ukraine during rasputitsa season (spring and fall).

Edit. slow :)

Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine

Resetufologist