Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11)

Ryng™ · Feb 20, 2018

sfortunato said:
1.688.426 + at least 652.614 from digital sales = 2.341.040.

Add additional digital sales and it might be around 2.6m right now. 3m is not a minimum, rather a maximum threshold unless the game has big legs. For reference, MH4 sold 4.1m in Japan and MHX is well above 3m.

? Game sold 159K last week. Even with a pessimist 50% drop expectation, that's another almost 80K, and retail will be 1.83 million. There is no way retail sell less than 2 million, and digital should pass 1 million with 650K only first week.

3.5 million is possible, maybe less but there is no way 3 million is the maximum. 3 million is guaranteed right now.

EDIT: I use MC retail sales

sfortunato · Feb 20, 2018

Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
? Game sold 159K last week. Even with a pessimist 50% drop expectation, that's another almost 80K, and retail will be 1.83 million. There is no way retail sell less than 2 million, and digital should pass 1 million with 650K only first week.

3.5 million is possible, maybe less but there is no way 3 million is the maximum. 3 million is guaranteed right now.

EDIT: I use MC retail sales

Even with your analysis, 3m is more a maximum threshold—I give you 3.1-3.2m. Digital sales are typically frontloaded and driven by stock issues. Let's see how it keeps selling over weeks.

Oregano · Feb 20, 2018

duckroll said:
Eh, when the competition is the WiiU.....

Well did Gravity Rush Remastered and Tearaway Unfolded sell much better on PS4 than Vita?

Charamiwa · Feb 20, 2018

Isn't the whole point of Wii U port to perform better than their original run? Especially for a game that bombed like Bayonetta. It would definitely be a disappointement if it can't top the Wii U's LTD.

If Pokken did it, MK8D too, and we expect Tropical Freeze to do it too, why not Bayonetta?

Zalman · Feb 20, 2018

Charamiwa said:
Isn't the whole point of Wii U port to perform better than their original run? Especially for a game that bombed like Bayonetta. It would definitely be a disappointement if it can't top the Wii U's LTD.

I think it will have legs considering we're still early in the Switch's life. Bayonetta 3 will generate hype and the series will be represented in Smash Bros.

Ryng™ · Feb 20, 2018

sfortunato said:
Even with your analysis, 3m is more a maximum threshold—I give you 3.1-3.2m. Digital sales are typically frontloaded and driven by stock issues. Let's see how it keeps selling over weeks.

Saying "3 million is the maximum" mean that no more than 3 million is possible, and a bit less than that ( like 2.8-2.9m) will be already hard to reach: that's clearly not the case.

3.1-3.2 million seem more on line with what i was thinking btw, i said that 3.5 million is possible but i don't expect that. But is better no underestimate this game again, actually i feel like legs could be better than expect.

Encephalon · Feb 20, 2018

I think I just logged into MHW to hear a dad playing and kids fighting over snacks or something lol. I would really like to see a demographics breakdown for this game. Wait, maybe there was an age breakdown in that survey?

Oregano · Feb 20, 2018

Charamiwa said:
Isn't the whole point of Wii U port to perform better than their original run? Especially for a game that bombed like Bayonetta. It would definitely be a disappointement if it can't top the Wii U's LTD.

If Pokken did it, MK8D too, and we expect Tropical Freeze to do it too, why not Bayonetta?

It's not always realistic. If the Switch version does anywhere close to the Wii U version it will have still be worth it because the cost to port would have been quite low.

There will obviously be double dippers but there will also be people who only bought the Wii U version or the Switch version and then they will have increased the potential customer base for the brand new Bayonetta 3.

Pokken and Mario Kart 8 having massive mainstream appeal due to their IP whereas Bayonetta has more of a hardcore audience, so being on a more mainstream system benefits them more. Presumably its the same for Donkey Kong but it remains to be seen.

Garlic · Feb 20, 2018

Those MHW digital estimates, holy cow

AaronC · Feb 20, 2018

Did Bayonetta 2 really do 80k ltd in Japan? Not objectively good by any means, but where did those post launch legs appear?

Zedark · Feb 20, 2018

600k+ digital? That's quite a lot. It would line up with the reports of 2M opening sales for Japan, so it doesn't seem to be off. This would put the sales of MHW at the same level of MH4 (+- 100k or so), so that's a monstrous result.

ArkhamFantasy · Feb 20, 2018

Keep in mind they get 70% of that digital revenue.

Mpl90 · Feb 20, 2018

Comgnet Pre-order Comparisons For Resetera: World

As of February 19th, 2018

[PS4] Hokuto ga Gotoku - 44pt + 13pt = 57pt

[PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami - 61pt
[PS3] Yakuza: Kiwami - 47pt
[PS4] Yakuza 6: The Song of Life - 132pt
[PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami 2 - 72pt + 16pt = 88pt

[NSW] Kirby: Star Allies - 41pt

[3DS] Kirby: Triple Deluxe - 13pt
[3DS] Kirby: Planet Robobot - 16pt

[PS4] Girls und Panzer: Dream Tank Match - 30pt + 9pt = 39pt

[PSV] Girls und Panzer: Senshado, Kiwamemasu! - 22pt

[NSW] Dragon Quest Builders - 16pt

[PSV] Dragon Quest Builders - 76pt
[PS4] Dragon Quest Builders - 52pt
[PS3] Dragon Quest Builders - = / < 15pt

Note: in the past few years, the ratio between preorder points and thousands of units sold have costantly decreased, and the past few months saw several examples of a much lower ratio than usual for several games (i.e. more actual thousands sold per preorder point), considering their platforms and genres (The Last Guardian, Poochy and Yoshi's Wolly World, Nioh, Final Fantasy XV as the first major examples).

Zedark · Feb 20, 2018

Thanks for the comparison, Mpl90! Two more for Kirby (numbers are preorders up to the day of release):

Kirby Return to Dream Land - 153pts (LTD = 757k)
Kirby Super Star Ultra - 310 pts (LTD = 1.2M)

Pooroomoo · Feb 20, 2018

Zedark said:
600k+ digital? That's quite a lot. It would line up with the reports of 2M opening sales for Japan, so it doesn't seem to be off. This would put the sales of MHW at the same level of MH4 (+- 100k or so), so that's a monstrous result.

Maybe that's how Famitsu arrived to it. They took Capcom's numbers, assumed complete sellout, and subtracted. Then again, I have no idea (does anyone?) how Famitsu arrive at their digital sales estimates.

OfficerRaichu15 · Feb 20, 2018

That's amazing digital results for Monster Hunter.

Astandahl · Feb 20, 2018

Vena said:
MH4 was sold out nationwide, it also had big digital. So this isn't a 'differential' here.

Famitsu digital sales estimates (Jan 1 ~ Jan 28).

Monster Hunter: World - 652,614

So MH4 sold 650k through digital in the first 3 days ?

MrCarter · Feb 20, 2018

mao2 said:
Famitsu digital sales estimates (Jan 1 ~ Jan 28).

Monster Hunter: World - 652,614

http://ryokutya2089.com/archives/7936

Included with physical this would make it the best opening for a MH game ever. Well done Capcom.

duckroll · Feb 20, 2018

Oregano said:
Well did Gravity Rush Remastered and Tearaway Unfolded sell much better on PS4 than Vita?

You realize that the Gravity Daze on the Vita sold over 100k in Japan right? Which is more than what Bayonetta 2 did, despite Bayonetta 1 selling like 300k+ in Japan? The WiiU was such a dead system.

sfortunato · Feb 20, 2018

MrCarter said:
Included with physical this would make it the best opening for a MH game ever. Well done Capcom.

In Japan... Nope.

01./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.01.26} (¥8.980) - 1.350.412 / NEW <80-100%>

+ 652,614

= 2.003.026 units.

Monster Hunter Portable 3rd did 2.146.467 FW. MH4 did 1.875.115 FW, and 225.000 eShop sales in the first 2 weeks so it might be above MHW too FW.

Portable 3rd had 5 days and 4 had 2 days. All of them were supply constrained though.

Ryng™ · Feb 20, 2018

duckroll said:
You realize that the Gravity Daze on the Vita sold over 100k in Japan right? Which is more than what Bayonetta 2 did, despite Bayonetta 1 selling like 300k+ in Japan? The WiiU was such a dead system.

This.

People need to realize how low Bayonetta 2 sales are on Wii U. This is such a big drop from Bayonetta 1, the series has a waaaay bigger potential.

Of course Bayonetta 3 is the real test, but this port is still a sign to understand how the series potential could be right now.

duckroll · Feb 20, 2018

If we really want to keep talking about ports outselling the original. Lets look at how Tales of Graces and Tales of Vesperia sold on PS3.

Gotdatmoney · Feb 20, 2018

Those digital sales are bonkers. MHW with a 2m opening is insanity. Holy shit.

sfortunato · Feb 20, 2018

duckroll said:
If we really want to keep talking about ports outselling the original. Lets look at how Tales of Graces and Tales of Vesperia sold on PS3.

It's not the norm for a porting/HD remaster to outsell the original because factors against the game typical outweights factors in favor of the game. Then there are specific examples that might go against the rule. Vesperia was released on 360---it would have been weird for a PS3 porting to not outsell the original. Graces PS3 was a HD version with additional contents.

Jade1962 · Feb 20, 2018

sfortunato said:
It's not the norm for a porting/HD remaster to outsell the original because factors against the game typical outweights factors in favor of the game. Then there are specific examples that might go against the rule. Vesperia was released on 360---it would have been weird for a PS3 porting to not outsell the original. Graces PS3 was a HD version with additional contents.

Don't both those factors favor the switch version of bayo 2 then?

ArtVandelay34 · Feb 20, 2018

Blown away by +600k digital sales of MHW. Do we have all time rankings of highest digital sales? Don't think I ever saw such a high number before (and likely still growing).

Deleted member 8593 · Feb 20, 2018

If someone told me the only reason Nintendo comissions games from Platinum is to keep them from working on other consoles...

...I wouldn't believe them but a small part of me would.

gueras · Feb 20, 2018

I will say again, PS4 will break 8 million this year in Japan.

sfortunato · Feb 20, 2018

Jade1962 said:
Don't both those factors favor the switch version of bayo 2 then?

Switch is more popular than Wii U, sure, but we don't know how much overlap it exists between the two platforms. Also, Bayonetta is a niche game overall and doesn't have much additional contents as far as I remember. Nevertheless, I suggest to discuss about the game's sales once is out and maybe after some time to see whether there are some legs.

sinonobu · Feb 20, 2018

MHW sales keep surprising me.

I never expected 600k+ digital... and man I'd thought 2m+ would be it's ltd not fw

Scum · Feb 20, 2018

So if the PS4 averages 35k a week, that'd be ~8m, correct?

sinonobu said:
MHW sales keep surprising me.

I never expected 600k+ digital... and man I'd thought 2m+ would be it's ltd not fw

Shame that some of the other PS4 software is not affected by all this.

N.Domixis · Feb 20, 2018

Scum said:
So if the PS4 averages 35k a week, that'd be ~8m, correct?

Shame that some of the other PS4 software is not affected by all this.

Monster hunter is like a religion in japan. That's all some people will play.

Oregano · Feb 20, 2018

duckroll said:
You realize that the Gravity Daze on the Vita sold over 100k in Japan right? Which is more than what Bayonetta 2 did, despite Bayonetta 1 selling like 300k+ in Japan? The WiiU was such a dead system.

I was thinking more WW when I gave those examples. I don't Bayo 2's sales are remotely good on either Wii U or Switch, but I also don't think it's weird that the re-release wouldn't outsell the original release, that's quite uncommon(the Tales examples are very notable exceptions).

Jimmyfenix · Feb 20, 2018

Reminding me of 2014 & 2015 sales discussion with bayo and donkey Kong

Looks like history might repeat itself

Mario Bilo · Feb 20, 2018

Scum said:
So if the PS4 averages 35k a week, that'd be ~8m, correct?

Shame that some of the other PS4 software is not affected by all this.

Yeah that's a huge problem. The audience for the franchises that keep releasing over and over the past is widling down with each itiration and so far we havent actually seen any signs of new onterestini software.

Deleted member 8593 · Feb 20, 2018

How did I miss the digital sales of MHW?

Tsujimoto is undefeated.

ACL · Feb 20, 2018

Jimmyfenix said:
Reminding me of 2014 & 2015 sales discussion with bayo and donkey Kong

Looks like history might repeat itself

Since these are ports of old games that's not surprising. Besides that DKTF is a game that will likely outclass the original version in the long run.

Mario Bilo said:
Yeah that's a huge problem. The audience for the franchises that keep releasing over and over the past is widling down with each itiration and so far we havent actually seen any signs of new onterestini software.

Especially DW was a series I wondered how so many people can buy a very similar game yearly since PS2 days. Personally I feel the same about most sports games but the reasons are more obvious, mainstream appeal, Club/star-players fandom, seasonal hype-cycle for the Sport itself and a lot of people buy consoles almost only to play these sports games.

DevilMayGuy · Feb 20, 2018

sfortunato said:
In Japan... Nope.

01./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.01.26} (¥8.980) - 1.350.412 / NEW <80-100%>

+ 652,614

= 2.003.026 units.

Monster Hunter Portable 3rd did 2.146.467 FW. MH4 did 1.875.115 FW, and 225.000 eShop sales in the first 2 weeks so it might be above MHW too FW.

Portable 3rd had 5 days and 4 had 2 days. All of them were supply constrained though.

Correct me if I'm misreading your post, but it looks like MHW outsold MHP3rd, yes? So this would be the second best opening week for a MH game in Japan?

WW it's obviously no contest, so it's more interesting to discuss Japan numbers.

Mario Bilo · Feb 20, 2018

ACL said:
Since these are ports of old games that's not surprising. Besides that DKTF is a game that will likely outclass the original version in the long run.

Especially DW was a series I wondered how so many people can buy a very similar game yearly since PS2 days. Personally I feel the same about most sports games but the reasons are more obvious, mainstream appeal, Club/star-players fandom, seasonal hype-cycle for the Sport itself and a lot of people buy consoles almost only to play these sports games.

While DW is an obvious example you have lots of other publisherd making similar mistakes. How many Tales of games came and went till their numbers came down from 600k to 200k, Yakuza also took forever with a full fledged next gen entry and suffered the first next gen entry problem of new engine and thus scaled down content but by that time people were no longer forgiving as the gen was well under way, Sword Art Online games release with smaller numbers per each itiration and I could go on. I mean Sony kinda did the same thing with games like Gravity Rush when the sequel simply felt like more of the same.

Look at MH as the counter balance to this. While you can definitely say that Capcom is milking the franchise dry, there's a huge difference betwen MH 3 portable and MH4, again big difference between MH4 and MHX and a massive difference between MHW.
Conversely for the initiated what really is the difference between SF4 and SF5?

Lite_Agent · Feb 20, 2018

Since it's been a while since the last time I posted it, and finally got around to fully update it, here's the release planning for retail Switch releases.

February 22nd

[Switch] Gotouji Tesudou for Nintendo Switch!!
[Switch] Rayman Legends Definitive Edition

March 1st

[Switch] DOOM
[Switch] Dragon Quest Builders

March 8th

[Switch] Anata no Shikihime Kyouikutan

March 15th

[Switch] Gal☆Gun 2
[Switch] Gal☆Gun 2 (Limited Edition)
[Switch] Attack on Titan 2
[Switch] Winning Post 8 2018

March 16th

[Switch] Kirby Star Allies

Winter 2018

[Switch] Blade Strangers

March 22nd

[Switch] Monster Energy AMA Supercross
[Switch] PriPara All Idol Perfect Stage
[Switch] Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition

March 29th

[Switch] Ao no Kanata no Four Rhythm
[Switch] Happy Birthdays

April 12th

[Switch] The Snack World: Trejarers Gold

April 19th

[Switch] Portal Knights
[Switch] Wonder Boy and the Dragon's Trap (retail)

April 20th

[Switch] Nintendo Labo - Variety Kit
[Switch] Nintendo Labo - Robot Kit
[Switch] Nintendo Labo - Customisation Kits
[Switch] Neo Atlas 1469

April 26th

[Switch] Cube Creator X
[Switch] SD Gundam G Generation Genesis
[Switch] World End Syndrome

May 3rd

[Switch] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

May 24th

[Switch] Mega Man Legacy Collection 1 + 2
[Switch] Dark Souls Remastered

May 31st

[Switch] BlazBlue Cross Tag Battle
[Switch] BlazBlue Cross Tag Battle Limited Box
[Switch] Usotsuki Hime to Moumoku Ouji

May 2018

[Switch] Street Fighter 30th Anniversary Collection

Spring 2018

[Switch] Shiin
[Switch] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - DLC Pack 3
[Switch] Dai Senryaku Perfect Ver. 4.0
[Switch] Mario Tennis Aces
[Switch] Hototogisu Tairan 1553 Ryuuko Aiutsu
[Switch] Song of Memories

Summer 2018

[Switch] Inazuma Eleven Ares
[Switch] Valkyria Chronicles 4
[Switch] Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana
[Switch] SNK Heroines ~Tag Team Frenzy~
[Switch] Mega Man X Legacy Collection
[Switch] Mega Man X Legacy Collection 2

Fall 2018

[Switch] Mega Man 11

2018

[Switch] Fire Emblem
[Switch] Dragon Quest Builders 2
[Switch] Travis Strikes Again: No More Heroes (?)
[Switch] Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus
[Switch] Project Octopath Traveler
[Switch] Shantae: Half-Genie Hero Ultimate Edition
[Switch] Kunio-kun: The World Classics Collection
[Switch] Minecraft: Better Together Update
[Switch] Boku no Hero Academia: One's Justice
[Switch] Payday 2 (?)
[Switch] Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition
[Switch] The World Ends With You -Final Remix-
[Switch] Labyrinth of Refrain: Cover of Dusk
[Switch] God Wars: Nippon Shinwa Taisen
[Switch] Steins;Gate Elite

???

[Switch] Shin Megami Tensei V
[Switch] Derby Stallion
[Switch] Story of Seasons
[Switch] Anonymous;Code
[Switch] Pokémon
[Switch] Metroid Prime 4
[Switch] Yoshi
[Switch] Umihara Kawase
[Switch] Bayonetta 3
[Switch] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age
[Switch] Tales of
[Switch] Taiko Drum Master

Hieroph · Feb 20, 2018

Scum said:
Shame that some of the other PS4 software is not affected by all this.

Oh yes, other PS4 software is absolutely affected by this. People are playing MHW and don't care about the other games.

DevilMayGuy · Feb 20, 2018

Hieroph said:
Oh yes, other PS4 software is absolutely affected by this. People are playing MHW and don't care about the other games.

Lmao

Maybe if the games were actually good they'd do better, too. But quality can only take you so far on a home console

Psycho_Mantis · Feb 20, 2018

Fdkn said:
That's only the launch week estimates too, and adding it to launch numbers gives us around 2 million 1st week for Famitsu.

Now we wait for Q4 report from Capcom in April >.>

7-8 million WW. Its insane. MH has eclipsed FF overseas.

ArkhamFantasy said:
Keep in mind they get 70% of that digital revenue.

Sold at 1.5x the price of a handheld version mind you. Capcom's Q4 report will be interesting revenue wise.

Dardan Sandiego said:
How did I miss the digital sales of MHW?

Tsujimoto is undefeated.

When they tell you a console MH won't be a success and you make it the best selling entry of the franchise.

sfortunato · Feb 20, 2018

NoMoreTrolls said:
Correct me if I'm misreading your post, but it looks like MHW outsold MHP3rd, yes? So this would be the second best opening week for a MH game in Japan?

WW it's obviously no contest, so it's more interesting to discuss Japan numbers.

Portable 3rd > World.

As for World v. 4, we don't know how much 4 sold on eShop at launch. An educated guess would put 4 a bit higher than World.

DevilMayGuy · Feb 20, 2018

sfortunato said:
Portable 3rd > World.

As for World v. 4, we don't know how much 4 sold on eShop at launch. An educated guess would put 4 a bit higher than World.

Ah yeah, thanks. Hopefully we get more digital sales numbers sometime so we have a better comparison.

schuelma · Feb 20, 2018

Insane World digital numbers. Would have thought it was way too high, but the numbers work with Capcom's public numbers so there ya go.

Vena · Feb 20, 2018

Those digital numbers are indeed incredible.

Hieroph said:
Oh yes, other PS4 software is absolutely affected by this. People are playing MHW and don't care about the other games.

If anything, we're seeing that the audience just went inactive on the PS4. Titles haven't be struggling for lack of core gamers, they've been struggling for lack of core gamers buying the games. The number of consoles moved is ultimately fairly tiny and the bulk of the sales are from the 33% of the PS4 audience that picked up World (and the digital pick up just means a bunch of old owners picked up the game as well).

The audience is completely disengaged.

Scum · Feb 20, 2018

So Vena, when's the next 300k/500k/800k+ title for the PS4?

schuelma · Feb 20, 2018

Scum said:
So Vena, when's the next 300k/500k/800k+ title for the PS4?

The only dated title I see that could hit 300K is power pro baseball in April. But that might not even be realistic.

Laplasakos · Feb 20, 2018

Vena said:
If anything, we're seeing that the audience just went inactive on the PS4. Titles haven't be struggling for lack of core gamers, they've been struggling for lack of core gamers buying the games. The number of consoles moved is ultimately fairly tiny and the bulk of the sales are from the 33% of the PS4 audience that picked up World (and the digital pick up just means a bunch of old owners picked up the game as well).

The audience is completely disengaged.

Half million PS4s in a month and half is ''fairly tiny''?

Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2018 (Feb 05 - Feb 11)

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