Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2018 (Feb 12 - Feb 18)

Grads · Feb 24, 2018

Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
Are we expecting Kirby Star Allies to sell over 1 million in Japan?

Not saying it won't, but i'm kinda uncertain of his performance...

I am.

ILikeFeet · Feb 24, 2018

Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
Are we expecting Kirby Star Allies to sell over 1 million in Japan?

Not saying it won't, but i'm kinda uncertain of his performance...

if it doesnt, it's gonna get awfully close.

Rainrir · Feb 24, 2018

schuelma said:
Wii U sold like 3.3M in Japan. Switch has already outsold it.

The continued downplaying of Labo and especially Kirby is funny to me. Kirby will probably outsell any PS4 game this year not named Monster Hunter and Labo has all the ingredients of a Nintendo expanded market hit.

Jpop said:
The Switch has already shown that it can support Wii U ports that outsell the originals. The Switch has already outsold the Wii U in pretty much every market.

Kirby is a big game and like other posters have said will most likely outsell any PS4 release this year that is not MH. If that is not a big release then I don't know what is.

I guess the PS4 doesn't get any big games then?

A lot of your post seems to be based on misinformation and personal opinions.

Firstly I didnt say anything about Kirby. I am only saying LABO potential is ????. Did you even read? Alot of your points are based on not reading Jpop it seems.

Secondly, the only late Wii U port that outperformed its Wii U version substantially is MK8 IIRC. (Which I already mentioned). What other late Wii U port on NSW beats it's Wii U performance? Not Bayonetta that's for sure.

schuelma · Feb 24, 2018

Rainrir said:
Firstly I didnt say anything about Kirby. I am saying LABO potengial is ???? Did you two even read?

Secondly, the only late Wii U port that outperformed its Wii U version substantially is MK8 IIRC. (Which I already mentioned). What other late Wii U port on NSW beats it's Wii U performance? Not Bayonetta that's for sure.

The way you phrased your post almost made it seem like Kirby wasn't a big release. My apologies if I misread.

As far as the subject at hand, Pokken has handily outsold the Wii U version and is still selling.

Rainrir · Feb 24, 2018

schuelma said:
The way you phrased your post almost made it seem like Kirby wasn't a big release. My apologies if I misread.

As far as the subject at hand, Pokken has handily outsold the Wii U version and is still selling.

Oh right there is Pokken, but Pokken has the advantage of being a competitive multiplayer game too. DK wouldn't have the same advantages.

Ryng™ · Feb 24, 2018

Grads said:
I am.

ILikeFeet said:
if it doesnt, it's gonna get awfully close.

Good, glad we have high expectations. Then i'll be #team1million as well :p

schuelma · Feb 24, 2018

Rainrir said:
Oh right there is Pokken, but Pokken has the advantage of being a competitive multiplayer game too. DK wouldn't have the same advantages.

Ok...not sure why that would be dispositive.

Rainrir · Feb 24, 2018

schuelma said:
Ok...not sure why that would be dispositive.

Games with MP benefit from legs and improved user base, since these games can get more people buying over time as they get their friends into the games.

This is why MP sports games always do best on the system with the most install base because people get their friends to play on the platform they own, and why western publishers are all in on multiplayer now. Its even instrumental to why Splatoon and MH does well in Japan.

DK wouldn't have that advantage. Plus it is now MK8 + Pokken vs Bayonetta in the "do late ports do better" list. The data set we have is too small to really make good predictions.

Mory Dunz · Feb 24, 2018

If pokken doesnt fully count then why even bring up the subject....

Anyway I dont think Kirby will hit 1 mil

Deleted member 37233 · Feb 24, 2018

Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
Good, glad we have high expectations. Then i'll be #team1million as well :p

I will proudly join that team! The pink fluff ball will crush all the doubters!

Labo will sell well, how well I am unsure about, but I think it has huge potential.

CeroMiedo · Feb 24, 2018

I mean we already had three single player games on switch with unbelievable legs,and out of three of them,only Mario Odyssey is from the franchise that has been known for big sales and legs before

Cinemikel · Feb 24, 2018

Important to remember that Kirby is not a big FW franchise, so don't expect like 300k+ opening week. It's a slow burner

Ryng™ · Feb 24, 2018

Cinemikel said:
Important to remember that Kirby is not a big FW franchise, so don't expect like 300k+ opening week. It's a slow burner

If it'll sell that much, i'll be impressed. I expected something in the 200-250K range, retail only.

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Feb 25, 2018

I want to see reviews of Kirby before I would feel comfortable with a prediction on the sales.

It's not as review dependent as something like God of War (which I think will be determined mostly by reviews), but I think it could still matter.

Rainrir · Feb 25, 2018

Reviews have not been strongly correlated with sales for a long time in the west, and never in Japan where the scores are brought or dependent on a criteria seperate form actual game quality (in Famitsu case, it is often how well they think will sell)

Vena · Feb 25, 2018

I don't think Kirby is review dependent at all. Its a fairly static, known quantity and while every game has some spiced up mechanics or mechs, it's almost always fundamentally similar if not identical. The biggest changes are usually around what Eldritch Horror you're fighting in a given release and how they thematically alter the mechanics.

skullwaker · Feb 25, 2018

I'm in the 200-250k FW and 1m+ lifetime camp for Kirby.

Join me, friends.

Ryng™ · Feb 25, 2018

skullwaker said:
I'm in the 200-250k FW and 1m+ lifetime camp for Kirby.

Join me, friends.

Literally my predictions.

Maybe closer to 250K than 200K for the first week , guess we'll see.

Chris1964 · Feb 25, 2018

Cinemikel said:
Important to remember that Kirby is not a big FW franchise, so don't expect like 300k+ opening week. It's a slow burner

3d Mario wasn't either a big first week franchise.

Chris1964 · Feb 25, 2018

Famitsu Sales: Jan 2018 (Jan 01 - Jan 28)

00./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.01.26} (¥8.315) - 652.614 / NEW <32,58%>
00./00. [PS4] Dissidia: Final Fantasy NT (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Square Enix) {2018.01.11} (¥7.800) - 29.487 / NEW <17,68%>
00./00. [3DS] Pokemon Crystal _3DS Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2018.01.26} (¥1.111) - 14.933 / NEW <54,74%>
00./00. [PS4] Gintama Ranbu (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.01.18} (¥7.600) - 9.817 / NEW <18,69%>
00./00. [PS4] Earth Defense Force 5 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (D3Publisher) {2017.12.07} (¥7.222) - 9.817 / 74.982 <22,61%> (-85%)
00./00. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 9.689 / 178.101 <4,23%> (-46%)
00./00. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Mojang AB) {2014.12.25} (¥1.904) - 8.103 <40,20%>
00./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 8.031 <46,07%>
00./00. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 7.647 / 89.042 <4,31%> (-40%)
00./00. [NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} (¥5.980) - 6.759 / NEW <5,49%>
00./00. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 5.817 / 111.394 <2,97%> (-73%)
00./00. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 4.738 / 64.738 <5,63%> (-7%)
00./00. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980) - 4.693 <11,06%> (+94%)
00./00. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980) - 3.591 / 23.275 <17,86%> (-82%)
00./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: WWII (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.11.03} (¥7.900) - 3.449 / 72.025 <13,33%> (-42%)
00./00. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 3.387 <19,05%>
00./00. [NSW] Pokken Tournament DX (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.09.22} (¥5.980) - 2.543 / 20.703 <8,79%> (+20%)
00./00. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} (¥2.700) - 1.830 <7,72%> (-57%)
00./00. [NSW] Arms (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980) - 1.668 <4,01%> (-27%)
00./00. [NSW] FIFA 18 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800) - 1.537 <9,71%>
00./00. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥4.980) - 1.357 / 43.226 <1,04%> (-85%)
00./00. [NSW] Monster Hunter Double Cross: Nintendo Switch Ver. (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.08.25} (¥5.546) - 1.264 <7,21%>
00./00. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥2.778) - 1.262 <6,71%>
00./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami 2 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Sega) {2017.12.07} (¥7.590) - 1.221 / 14.418 <8,41%> (-91%)
00./00. [3DS] Mario Party: The Top 100 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.12.28} (¥4.980) - 943 / 3.584 <0,89%> (-64%)
00./00. [PSV] Gintama Ranbu (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.01.18} (¥6.800) - 902 / NEW <3,70%>
00./00. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Hihou Legend Banbarayaa - Sword / Magnum (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Level 5) {2017.12.16} (¥4.800) - 852 / 5.535 <1,17%> (-82%)
00./00. [3DS] Kirby Battle Royale (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.11.30} (¥4.980) - 761 / 3.953 <3,03%> (-76%)
00./00. [3DS] Style Savvy: Styling Star (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.11.02} (¥4.980) - 593 / 5.617 <3,70%> (-72%)
00./00. [NSW] Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2017.12.07} (¥5.800) - 348 / 1.399 <2,32%> (-67%)

Notaskwid · Feb 25, 2018

I don't know why nintendo doesn't try to further increase the percentage of digital sales on its platforms since the margins are so much better.
Every atempt so far as been halfassed.

Jon Carter · Feb 25, 2018

I'm not sure why we should be expecting Kirby to sell over one million. Unlike SMO and BotW, it seems to be same old, same old, and the 3DS games didn't reach a million even though the system was more successful and cheaper.

Pablo Mesa · Feb 25, 2018

Notaskwid said:
I don't know why nintendo doesn't try to further increase the percentage of digital sales on its platforms since the margins are so much better.
Ever atempt so far as been halfassed.

they dont have a massive built in storage, that alone detours most people from going full/ mostly digital.

and they dont pull SALES as often cause they believe on long term sales

Notaskwid · Feb 25, 2018

Jon Carter said:
even though the system was more successful

The judge is still out on that one.

Zedark · Feb 25, 2018

Jon Carter said:
I'm not sure why we should be expecting Kirby to sell over one million. Unlike SMO and BotW, it seems to be same old, same old, and the 3DS games didn't reach a million even though the system was more successful and cheaper.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Switch selling more software than 3DS launch aligned despite the hardware sales difference? Or at least very close?

Mory Dunz · Feb 25, 2018

Jon Carter said:
I'm not sure why we should be expecting Kirby to sell over one million. Unlike SMO and BotW, it seems to be same old, same old, and the 3DS games didn't reach a million even though the system was more successful and cheaper.

I dont think it'll do 1 million but I imagine the argument includes that switch has muliplayer out the box unlike 3ds kirby

Rainrir · Feb 25, 2018

Notaskwid said:
I don't know why nintendo doesn't try to further increase the percentage of digital sales on its platforms since the margins are so much better.
Every atempt so far as been halfassed.

I am not sure if serious.

Nintendo's digital revenue, since the NSW launched, has more than doubled (from a low base).

The initiatives, such as a revamped My Nintendo Gold Coin system (5% rebates for digital purchases, can be huge if it applies to almost all games), the added offers for digital games when paid online happens, the better and more often digital sales on the NSW Eshop (FIFA has a comparable discount digital recently, indies too) all point towards Ninty preparing it's base for a heavier digital future.

Does it mean Nintendo's own games will drop in price much? Nope. There is no reason to gimp revenue if you game sells constantly, even physical retailers know that for Nintendo games (which is why you rarely see physical discounts for Ninty games). The sales of its first party games are never the problem even on their "failed" consoles, I expect the digital push would be more on the 3P games.

The lack of onboard storage is not really a big issue, given that the means to expand storage is neither expensive, space consuming, nor hard to access. Even for big box consoles, all digital buyers use up 1TB on board storage quickly and have maskave powered hard drives for all their games.

jnWake · Feb 25, 2018

DKCTF is one of my favourite games ever but I'll be shocked if it heavily outperforms the original. I sadly don't see where the appeal for it to sell so much can come from.

Pokken DX and MK8 DX are multiplayer games so they go really well with the Switch concept so it isn't that shocking that they sell well. DKCTF has co-op but it ain't too good so I don't see that as a selling point. The game's qualities also aren't that easy to communicate. It has amazing level design but that's hard to market, and the game's graphics aren't high quality enough to grab attention just from that.

In any case, original DKCTF managed to sell a million so if this port gets there or 1.5 million or so it'd be a win anyway.

Chris1964 · Feb 25, 2018

Switch games with supply problems in January. There wasn't similar information for 1-2-Switch but it looks it faced problems too.

Chris1964 said:
Famitsu Sales: Jan 2018 (Jan 01 - Jan 28)

00./00. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 4.738 / 64.738 <5,63%> (-7%)
00./00. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980) - 4.693 <11,06%> (+94%)
00./00. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980) - 3.591 / 23.275 <17,86%> (-82%)
00./00. [NSW] Pokken Tournament DX (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.09.22} (¥5.980) - 2.543 / 20.703 <8,79%> (+20%)
00./00. [NSW] FIFA 18 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800) - 1.537 <9,71%>

sfortunato · Feb 25, 2018

Notaskwid said:
I don't know why nintendo doesn't try to further increase the percentage of digital sales on its platforms since the margins are so much better.
Every atempt so far as been halfassed.

On top of explanations from other users, Nintendo demo is skewed towards kids and families which are less tech-savvy and typically buy more at retail.

Mario Bilo · Feb 25, 2018

sfortunato said:
On top of explanations from other users, Nintendo demo is skewed towards kids and families which are less tech-savvy and typically buy more at retail.

That's not true of the switch though.

sfortunato · Feb 25, 2018

Mario Bilo said:
That's not true of the switch though.

Indeed Switch has a much, much better digital adoption versus previous Nintendo platforms.

Nocturnal · Feb 25, 2018

Zedark said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Switch selling more software than 3DS launch aligned despite the hardware sales difference? Or at least very close?

That's correct even this year the results in terms of Software are much closer despite 3DS having far bigger launches in early 2012(RE:R, NLP, TFF) and selling far more hardware. Currently for 7 weeks of their second years launch aligned 3DS has sold 83% more hardware, but only 30% more physical software:

Code:

Switch:
Week 1 2018: Switch HW - 146.006(+8%) Switch SW - 441.447(+5%)
Week 2 2018: Switch HW - 37.500(-74%) Switch SW - 126.949(-71%)
Week 3 2018: Switch HW - 43.027(+14%) Switch SW - 166.966(+31%)
Week 4 2018: Switch HW - 47.107(+9%) Switch SW - 121.023(-27%)
Week 5 2018: Switch HW - 49.165(+4%) Switch SW - 133.589(+10%)
Week 6 2018: Switch HW - 43.404(-11%) Switch SW - 111.054(-16%)
Week 7 2018: Switch HW - 39.303(-9%) Switch SW - 107.929(-2%)

Switch Total 2018:
Switch HW - 405.512
Switch SW - 1.208.957

3DS Total 2012:
3DS HW - 744.479
3DS SW - 1.579.898

This would flip around after March and April because of Kirby, DQB, Hyrule Warriors, Labo & Snack World launches.

During the corresponding weeks 3DS had:
Week 8: Harvest Moon: The Land of Origin - 81K | >165K
Week 9: Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 - 43K | >167K
Week 10: Hatsune Miku and Future Stars - 86K | >132K
Week 12: Kid Icarus: Uprising - 132K | >287K
Week 13: Kingdom Hearts 3D - 213K | >311K
Week 16: Fire Emblem: Awakening - 242K | >417K
Total New SW Sales: 1479K

I personally think that just Kirby and Labo will end up outselling these games combined total with ease. Also these comparison don't take into account the fact that Switch is selling far more digitally than any prior Nintendo platform. I'd expect if Stardew Valley had a physical release it could have easily cleared 100K LTD.

sfortunato · Feb 25, 2018

Nocturnal said:
Also these comparison don't take into account the fact that Switch is selling far more digitally than any prior Nintendo platform.

Also, the first retail games sold via eShop on 3DS were New Super Mario Bros. 2 and Brain Training 3 in Summer 2012.

Hero of Legend · Feb 25, 2018

Chris1964 said:
Famitsu Sales: Jan 2018 (Jan 01 - Jan 28)

00./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.01.26} (¥8.315) - 652.614 / NEW <32,58%>
00./00. [PS4] Dissidia: Final Fantasy NT (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Square Enix) {2018.01.11} (¥7.800) - 29.487 / NEW <17,68%>
00./00. [3DS] Pokemon Crystal _3DS Virtual Console Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2018.01.26} (¥1.111) - 14.933 / NEW <54,74%>
00./00. [PS4] Gintama Ranbu (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.01.18} (¥7.600) - 9.817 / NEW <18,69%>
00./00. [PS4] Earth Defense Force 5 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (D3Publisher) {2017.12.07} (¥7.222) - 9.817 / 74.982 <22,61%> (-85%)
00./00. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 9.689 / 178.101 <4,23%> (-46%)
00./00. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Mojang AB) {2014.12.25} (¥1.904) - 8.103 <40,20%>
00./00. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI: Echoes of an Elusive Age (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) {2017.07.29} (¥8.980) - 8.031 <46,07%>
00./00. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 7.647 / 89.042 <4,31%> (-40%)
00./00. [NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} (¥5.980) - 6.759 / NEW <5,49%>
00./00. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 5.817 / 111.394 <2,97%> (-73%)
00./00. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 4.738 / 64.738 <5,63%> (-7%)
00./00. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980) - 4.693 <11,06%> (+94%)
00./00. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980) - 3.591 / 23.275 <17,86%> (-82%)
00./00. [PS4] Call of Duty: WWII (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2017.11.03} (¥7.900) - 3.449 / 72.025 <13,33%> (-42%)
00./00. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| [New Price Edition] <ACT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2015.10.08} (¥4.990) - 3.387 <19,05%>
00./00. [NSW] Pokken Tournament DX (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.09.22} (¥5.980) - 2.543 / 20.703 <8,79%> (+20%)
00./00. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2016.11.23} (¥2.700) - 1.830 <7,72%> (-57%)
00./00. [NSW] Arms (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980) - 1.668 <4,01%> (-27%)
00./00. [NSW] FIFA 18 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800) - 1.537 <9,71%>
00./00. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥4.980) - 1.357 / 43.226 <1,04%> (-85%)
00./00. [NSW] Monster Hunter Double Cross: Nintendo Switch Ver. (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.08.25} (¥5.546) - 1.264 <7,21%>
00./00. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus: Cut it Out, Together! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <PZL> (Nintendo) {2017.11.10} (¥2.778) - 1.262 <6,71%>
00./00. [PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami 2 (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ADV> (Sega) {2017.12.07} (¥7.590) - 1.221 / 14.418 <8,41%> (-91%)
00./00. [3DS] Mario Party: The Top 100 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.12.28} (¥4.980) - 943 / 3.584 <0,89%> (-64%)
00./00. [PSV] Gintama Ranbu (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.01.18} (¥6.800) - 902 / NEW <3,70%>
00./00. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Hihou Legend Banbarayaa - Sword / Magnum (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Level 5) {2017.12.16} (¥4.800) - 852 / 5.535 <1,17%> (-82%)
00./00. [3DS] Kirby Battle Royale (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.11.30} (¥4.980) - 761 / 3.953 <3,03%> (-76%)
00./00. [3DS] Style Savvy: Styling Star (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.11.02} (¥4.980) - 593 / 5.617 <3,70%> (-72%)
00./00. [NSW] Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nippon Columbia) {2017.12.07} (¥5.800) - 348 / 1.399 <2,32%> (-67%)

Chris, do you by chance have these charts for previous months? I'd prefer using yours if you have them for proper formatting.

Mario Bilo · Feb 25, 2018

sfortunato said:
Indeed Switch has a much, much better digital adoption versus previous Nintendo platforms.

Care to provide numbers for that? I'm not trolling genuinely want to see what the increase is.

sfortunato · Feb 25, 2018

Mario Bilo said:
Care to provide numbers for that? I'm not trolling genuinely want to see what the increase is.

I quote:

Rainrir said:
Nintendo's digital revenue, since the NSW launched, has more than doubled (from a low base).

This can be seen from financial reports. For example here:

I would also like to touch on the progress we have made for our download sales. This figure shows the download sales of digital content for dedicated video game platforms compared to past years. Sales through the second quarter were the highest in our history for a six- month period. Download sales for Nintendo Switch highly contribute to increase of total download sales.

Also, by looking at Famitsu eShop estimated sales you see a general trend of bigger and bigger digital ratio over total sales.

Mario Bilo · Feb 25, 2018

Coolio，thanks.

Hieroph · Feb 25, 2018

JJConrad said:
If people were actually ignoring these factors, they'd be predicting sales around 5-6 million (the series' console average). DKCR 3DS faced all of those factors... and more... and it still sold about 2 million copies. It had to compete against the cheaper Wii version, 6.5 million potential second hand copies/people who already played it, and moving to a smaller userbase (meaning potentially higher overlap). Most people are making predictions in line with the 3DS game, and even of those I've seen above that, none are so far above it that one should doubt their reasoning.

Yeah, good recap of the discussion. I have nothing against these estimations, just the singular reasoning when some people claim that Switch install base couldn't possibly have a lot of Wii U owners (current or past). Everything points to a sizable part of the current install base coming from Wii U "switchers", like Bayonetta 2's somewhat low sales. Many Switch owners in the current install base probably did have the chance to play it on Wii U, after all.

Ryoma said:
If we're talking about Japan, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze isn't part of the Nintendo Selects equivalent (in fact, I'm pretty sure no Wii U games are), so it won't matter there at all.

Yeah, it's good to clarify that. Currently the same logic applies to worldwide sales as well, but as you say, the install bases will get different over time, in Japan and WW.

That's why I don't think this is the best possible timing for these ports. Sure, they will add to the lineup for future buyers, but they could have had more impact with bigger upgrades later in the life cycle.

Pablo Mesa · Feb 25, 2018

was this posted already?? or can it be posted outside of by Op??

Top 30 best-selling games in Japan for the month of January 2018

1. [PS4] Monster Hunter World – 2,003,026 (1,350,412 physical, 652,614 digital)
2. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 229,284 (219,595 physical, 9,689 digital)
3. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey – 196,069 (190,252 physical, 5,817 digital)
4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 177,233 (169,586 physical, 7,647 digital)
5. [PS4] Dissidia Final Fantasy NT – 166,791 (137,304 physical, 29,487 digital)
6. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun/Ultra Moon – 130,739 (129,382 physical, 1,357 digital)
7. [NSW] Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle – 123,179 (116,420 physical, 6,759 digital)
8. [3DS] Mario Party: The Top 100 – 105,999 (105,056 physical, 943 digital)
9. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 84,084 (79,346 physical, 4,738 digital)
10. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2 – 72,663 (71,811 physical, 852 digital)
11. [PS4] Gintama Rumble – 43,428 (33,611 physical, 9,817 digital)
12. [PS4] Earth Defense Force 5 – 43,428 (33,611 physical, 9,817 digital)
13. [NSW] 1-2 Switch – 42,444 (37,751 physical, 4,693 digital)
14. [NSW] ARMS – 41,585 (39,917 physical, 1,668 digital)
15. [NSW] Pokken Tournament DX – 28,932 (26,389 physical, 2,543 digital)
16. [3DS] Pokemon Crystal – 27,281 (12,348 physical, 14,933 digital)
17. [PS4] Call of Duty: WWII – 25,879 (22,430 physical, 3,449 digital)
18. [3DS] Kirby Battle Royale – 25,099 (24,338 physical, 761 digital)
19. [PSV] Gintama Rumble – 24,404 (23,502 physical, 902 digital)
20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf – Welcome amiibo – 23,715 (21,885 physical, 1,830 digital)
21. [PS4] Minecraft: PlayStation 4 Edition – 20,159 (12,056 physical, 8,103 digital)
22. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 – 20,111 (16,520 physical, 3,591 digital)
23. [NSW] Snipperclips Plus – 18,796 (17,534 physical, 1,262 digital)
24. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V (New Price Edition) – 17,784 (14,397 physical, 3,387 digital)
25. [NSW] Monster Hunter XX – 17,543 (16,279 physical, 1,264 digital)
26. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI – 17,432 (9,401 physical, 8,031 digital)
27. [3DS] Style Savvy: Styling Star – 16,006 (15,413 physical, 593 digital)
28. [NSW] FIFA 18 – 15,832 (14,295 physical, 1,537 digital)
29. [NSW] Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park he Youkoso – 15,031 (14,683 physical, 348 digital)
30. [PS4] Yakuza Kiwami 2 – 14,518 (13,297 physical, 1,221 digital)

Nocturnal · Feb 25, 2018

Kirby moved up to 2nd place on Amazon.co.jp with more than 2 weeks to launch.
Things are looking up for Switch stock as well with Neon sticking in the top 5 while Gray is in the top 25 with both being very close to retail price.

Quick Amazon.co.jp comparison between Mario + Rabbids and Dragon Quest Builders:

Mario + Rabbids

Code:

Jan 2nd - 88) Mario + Rabbids(new)
Jan 4th - 52) Mario + Rabbids(+36)
Jan 6th - 41) Mario + Rabbids(+11)
Jan 8th - 16) Mario + Rabbids(+25)
Jan 10th - 15) Mario + Rabbids(+1)
Jan 13th - 10) Mario + Rabbids(+5)
Jan 15th - 7) Mario + Rabbids(+3)
Jan 17th - 3) Mario + Rabbids(+4) 59) Digital Download(new)
Post Launch 
Jan 19th - 4) Mario + Rabbids(-1) 16) Digital Download(+43)

Dragon Quest Builders

Code:

Feb 4th - 69) Dragon Quest Builders(new)
Feb 18th - 40) Dragon Quest Builders(+29) 77)Dragon Quest Builders(new)
Feb 20th - 40) Dragon Quest Builders(-) 60) Dragon Quest Builders(+17)
Feb 24th - 21) Dragon Quest Builders(+19) 53) Dragon Quest Builders(+7)
Feb 25th - 12) Dragon Quest Builders(+9) 35) Dragon Quest Builders(+18)

DQB has two SKU's on amazon.co.jp and comparatively has been doing as good as M+R in terms of following the trend pre-release. This is one of the reasons I expect the game to open >30K and for the first week to be closer to 50K.

Hero of Legend · Feb 25, 2018

Soon Kirby will kick MHW to the kirb!

Chris1964 · Feb 25, 2018

Hero of Legend said:
Chris, do you by chance have these charts for previous months? I'd prefer using yours if you have them for proper formatting.

I have everything

Psycho_Mantis · Feb 25, 2018

skullwaker said:
Wonder how this will do.

Not even UNS4.

Datajoy said:
As a casual observer, it is really hard to take any opinion you have on MHW's actual quality seriously, given how desperately you were rooting for the game to fail pre-launch.

Sammy was the rare case in which nearly every signal about MHW's performance was read wrong.

Lady Lunalesca said:
Well 4 is a base game and never released outside Japan. 4U has G rank which is the main "post game" for the series hard difficulty, extra monsters, new sharpness, etc. We hadn't had a base game released outside of Japan before World since Tri. Tri was missing a ton of monsters and even weapons as well it was worse than World. I can't wait for G Rank.

MHW G rank 2019 is going to be a lock.

Chris1964 · Feb 25, 2018

Hieroph said:
Yeah, good recap of the discussion. I have nothing against these estimations, just the singular reasoning when some people claim that Switch install base couldn't possibly have a lot of Wii U owners (current or past). Everything points to a sizable part of the current install base coming from Wii U "switchers", like Bayonetta 2's somewhat low sales. Many Switch owners in the current install base probably did have the chance to play it on Wii U, after all.

Mario Kart 8 and Pokken come from Wii U too.

OfficerRaichu15 · Feb 25, 2018

I feel like every major release has been underestimated for Switch(besides FEW and Bayonetta 2 to an extent in Japan) so Kirby gonna continue that trend of performing stronger.

Frankie_baby · Feb 25, 2018

I'm wondering if Nintendo will push out a big stock week for Kirby? That could help it do great numbers

schuelma · Feb 25, 2018

Jon Carter said:
I'm not sure why we should be expecting Kirby to sell over one million. Unlike SMO and BotW, it seems to be same old, same old, and the 3DS games didn't reach a million even though the system was more successful and cheaper.

Its the first major title since MK8 Deluxe to push the local multiplayer out of the box.

Deleted member 2791 · Feb 25, 2018

Kirby has been the same old since the first game and it never stopped selling.

Lelouch0612 · Feb 25, 2018

If the demo leak is real, it would be interesting to see how it is going to push Kirby's preorders/hype.

Media Create Sales: Week 7, 2018 (Feb 12 - Feb 18)

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