NPD July 2018: Octopath Traveler #1, Switch Best Selling Console

[Shibi]

Used to be the idea

Seems outdated now days. Consumers are as prepared to buy a game in July as they are in March or September. Doesn't really matter.

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Feels like to me that its a relic of the "Video Games are for Kids" age. When the age of the average gamer was significantly younger, now with that age moving past 30, it seems weird to have a dead zone in the middle of the year determined by a season that doesn't impact much of the consumer base at all.

Both The Last of Us and Arkham Knight proved that you can release a AAA game in June. Crash N'Sane Trilogy originally released on June 30, and I don't think it was negatively impacted by its release date, so I am not convinced that a AAA game can't succeed at any time.

 

[CarthOhNoes]

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[Benji]

Can you share why you think that is the case?
Is it because of launch success of Octopath and other games released in Jun-Aug?
Does the software sales generally stay flat throughout the year with spike in November to December?
Or is it generally the case that Jun-Aug are slower months for software sales?

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It's just most people who buy games now days aren't kids. They are full grown adults.

Is there any difference to your average 25 - 30 year old between March and July? Honestly not really. Most people in the prime age group for gaming are adults whose lives are frankly static through most of the year.

 

[P-Switch]

Not from my reading. PUBG, just below Crash on the xbox listing, yet didn't chart on the overall. Neither did Splatoon 2 which was just above Crash on the Switch listing.


....EDIT upon more thought...

Then again, we know Crash (NS) sold less than Captain Toad (NS) which placed 14th. So we know had Crash only come out on Switch, it could have charted below 14th.

I can probably infer from this that the X1 version of Crash had to make up the highest percentage of sales to boost it from >14th place to 2nd.

I'm not sure if PC sales fit into this either.

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Are all those games the same price?

Don't forget these rankings are revenue based, not units sold. Might make a difference.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

Most people in the prime age group for gaming are adults whose lives are frankly static through most of the year.

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[Benji]

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Not trying to be mean or rude but it's the truth of it. Very few 30 year olds are just having huge swings in activity in their lives. At that point consumers are mostly set, and that's where the majority of the gaming demographics are now days

 

[P-Switch]

So these Switch games have taken number 1 overall in NPDs since launch?

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
Splatoon 2
Mario Tennis Aces
Octopath Traveller

Games that debuted in Top 5

Mario Odyssey(~1.1 Million)
Breath of the Wild(920k)
Kirby Star Allies(~260k)
ARMS(256k with digital)
Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze
Nintendo Labo Variety Kit

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They all must have released in months when no games anywhere on the planet were released.

That can be the only explanation for a Nintendo game's high placement on an NPD list

 

[Deleted member 3769]

See Capcom that's how you do it...

 

[Xx 720]

Switch in full beast mode, just imagine when pokemon/smash drops. Wish Captain Toad had debuted higher it's a brilliant game. A bit surprised Crash didn't perform better, it's kinda made for handheld..

 

[Peek-a-boo!]

Yeah, honestly the summer release slate is kind of inexcusable. People still want new games.

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August would have been a perfect month for Dragon Quest XI and Shadow of the Tomb Raider to be released, both of which are highly likely not going to reach their sales potential due to coming out in 'Spider-Man month'.

Square-Enix had the whole month to themselves, the daft sods.

Annoyingly, both games went gold ages ago too...

As for this month, it is nice to see the Switch doing well, both in terms of hardware and software!

The PlayStation 4 numbers are a little bit underwhelming, but I am told that the PS4 Pro is facing severe shortages, and September is going to be the big month for them. The Xbox One continues to go up YoY, and is doing rather well in its strongest market.

And I got a hearty chuckle out of the blatant God of War concern trolling too.

 

[P-Switch]

A $299 Switch isnt going to beat a $199 PS4 though

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I disagree.

I think a $299 Switch with 2.5 weeks of a Pokémon release will beat a $199 ps4 selling for Black Friday week.

 

[Deleted member 36622]

I'm so happy for Octopath, hopefully SE is smart enough to turn this into a new franchise if it breaks 2 mln.

 

[Marukoban]

I disagree.

I think a $299 Switch with 2.5 weeks of a Pokémon release will beat a $199 ps4 selling for Black Friday week.

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If this is normal mainline Pokemon then maybe you are right, but Pokemon LGP/LGE is such a wild card.
It's really hard to predict whether it will do well or not.

 

[allan-bh]

No way a $299 Switch will beat PS4 for $199 in november.

 

[mogster7777]

I think Octopath is a bit of an anamoly. You aren't gonna get JRPGs getting to no.1 often. It had a lot of marketing. And Switch people are thirsty for a new game on the system.
I mean it's good it sold so well but it came out at the best time possible which will probably not happen again in the near future.

 

[John Bender]

Seeing games like Octopath Traveler and Xenoblade Chronicles 2 having good sales feels so fucking amazing man! Jrpgs 4-Life =D

 

[Stryda]

It's because Square-Enix are cowards despite having historical evidence of games like this selling really well with Bravely Default.

Third parties are way too risk averse with things that aren't a near guarantee with the bread and butter 18-30 year old male demographic.

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Doesn't Nintendo publish all Square games on their platforms in the west though? I would've thought it was a more of contract thing

 

[Andromeda]

Yeah it's a weird situation and I'm inclined to agree the forecast doesnt lend one to think $199 is going to happen.

That's why I'm still leaning Switch taking November. I also think you are going to see it at some retailers for $249.99 or $279.99 though tbh

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They already give a $60 game (Mario + Rabbids) at best buy with every $299 Switch. I think it's the first time they do that. Is the demand currently slowing down for Nintendo ?

 

[QuiteSomething]

They idea of Sony not dropping price below 300 is so baffling

 

[CaviarMeths]

Doesn't Nintendo publish all Square games on their platforms in the west though? I would've thought it was a more of contract thing

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The vast majority of them it seems, but I believe Dragon Quest Builders was published by SE on Switch.

 

[Mbolibombo]

Really odd to see Crash be so low on the Nintendo list and so high on the Xbox list. Was hoping that both sold as well.

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I'm sure they both are selling well, they are on two separate lists with different numbers. Cant say for a fact that a game ranked #2 on one list has a lot higher sales than a game ranked #8 on another.

Game is doing great on both consoles in Europe, I am sure that is the case in the US as well.

 

[twinturbo2]

Can we just pencil in Switch as winning December, since Smash Bros: Here We Go Again will be out that month>

 

[Celine]

Nintendo gamers probably still resent Crash for those 90's commercials of Crash taunting Mario outside NOA

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Nintendo gamers were too busy watching the Starfox 64 commercial.

 

[Wander_]

This is the seventh month that Switch has led in hardware dollar sales since launching in March 2017, and the first since December 2017

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MatPiscatella I'm pretty sure that switch won in january too.

 

[sinonobu]

The vast majority of them it seems, but I believe Dragon Quest Builders was published by SE on Switch.

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Nope. DQB was published by Nintendo in the west.

Games like Spelunker, I am Setsuna and Lost Sphear was published by SE tho.

 

[AfropunkNyc]

Switch got me back into console gaming and it has this retro gaming feel thats been missing in console gaming for years personally. So much potential in that hardware. i see why people want ports of older games. Love the switch and good to see its selling well.

 

[EarthPainting]

Even with the meagre competition this month, I still didn't expect Octopath to climb to the top. Congrats to the team. I hope its success plants the seeds for more quirky, mechanics driven JRPGs.

 

[CaviarMeths]

Nope. DQB was published by Nintendo in the west.

Games like Spelunker, I am Setsuna and Lost Sphear was published by SE tho.

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I'm sure SE asked Nintendo if they wanted to publish Setsuna and Lost Sphear and Nintendo said "lol."

 

[sinonobu]

I'm sure SE asked Nintendo if they wanted to publish Setsuna and Lost Sphear and Nintendo said "lol."

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lol

 

[NeroPaige]

I must be the only person on the planet who hasn't played GTA5 yet at this point.

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Never played any GTA ever. Never played a lot of the FPS franchises either.

 

[Xx 720]

Forgot Fortnight released on Switch in July, along with its exclusives/evergreens this had to of pushed people on the fence to jump in. Wouldn't surprise me if switch is number one in US for the rest of the year.

 

[Shark]

Forgot Fortnight released on Switch in July, along with its exclusives/evergreens this had to of pushed people on the fence to jump in. Wouldn't surprise me if switch is number one in US for the rest of the year.

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It won't be for September.

 

[Beatle]

No way a $299 Switch will beat PS4 for $199 in november.

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Maybe, people do see the Switch as two systems in one due to it's hybrid nature (Portable and Home), it can be perceived as better value than a stationary Home console like the PS4

 

[mael]

Pretty much everything you said here also applies to Mario kart and that seemed to turn out all right. Id say if we do get NSMBU this year then we'll almost certainly get Mario maker next year. That seems to have the 2D Mario fan base pretty well served.

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Except it's far too late now.
MK8D was something like the 2nd major release on Switch.
Releasing a port of NSMBU this late in the cycle would be akin releasing SSB4WiiU instead of the new game we got now.

 

[P-Switch]

If this is normal mainline Pokemon then maybe you are right, but Pokemon LGP/LGE is such a wild card.
It's really hard to predict whether it will do well or not.

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Yea it's hard to predict, but I don't see why a game that appeals across mobile gamers, newbies, and core Pokémon gamers won't sell more than a more comple Pokémon game that appeals to mostly just core Pokémon gamers.

I think core/hardcore Pokémon gamers are underestimating how many core Pokémon gamers will still buy the first home console mainline Pokémon's game ever...despite it also being newbie/casual friendly.

I still think Pokémon Let's Go will sell more than whatever Pokémon game they release next year

 

[Sandfox]

Yea it's hard to predict, but I don't see why a game that appeals across mobile gamers, newbies, and core Pokémon gamers won't sell more than an intensive Pokémon game that appeals to mostly just core Pokémon gamers.

I think core/hardcore Pokémon gamers are underestimating how many core Pokémon gamers will still buy the first home console mainline Pokémon's game ever...despite it also being newbie/casual friendly.

I still think Pokémon Let's Go will sell more than whatever Pokémon game they release next year

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Gen 8 will likely sell better due to all of the new Pokemon and very likely being a more ambitious title.

Except it's far too late now.
MK8D was something like the 2nd major release on Switch.
Releasing a port of NSMBU this late in the cycle would be akin releasing SSB4WiiU instead of the new game we got now.

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If Mario is real it should do well. For the majority of people it's a new title and 2D Mario for the holidays should be big with multiple audiences.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

Yea it's hard to predict, but I don't see why a game that appeals across mobile gamers, newbies, and core Pokémon gamers won't sell more than a more comple Pokémon game that appeals to mostly just core Pokémon gamers.

I think core/hardcore Pokémon gamers are underestimating how many core Pokémon gamers will still buy the first home console mainline Pokémon's game ever...despite it also being newbie/casual friendly.

I still think Pokémon Let's Go will sell more than whatever Pokémon game they release next year

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Not a chance unless Let's Go kills the franchise . . .

 

[Claude Augario]

SE really dropped the ball not having DQ11 ready for Switch. They could have been capitalizing off of all this good will.

 

[CeroMiedo]

Maybe, people do see the Switch as two systems in one due to it's hybrid nature (Portable and Home), it can be perceived as better value than a stationary Home console like the PS4

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No, that's not how it works lol

 

[timerhyme]

Congrats Octopath traveler! Will be buying the game this weekend~

 

[mael]

If Mario is real it should do well. For the majority of people it's a new title and 2D Mario for the holidays should be big with multiple audiences.

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Problem is that it kills momentum for any new Mario game for the next few years when it would much more profitable to just release the new game as it's going to be big enough to carry a holiday season by itself.
NSMBU won't be that, the fact that we're already 8 months in 2018 and we have no concrete information about it shows that it's not going to be the flagship release MK8 was or Pkmn LG or SSBU are going to be.
On top of that there's an argument to be made that NSMBU is probably not a product good enough for Switch when it failed to make WiiU appealing while NSMBW was basically their biggest title and was partly responsible for Wii's unbelievable end of year 2009 performance.
I'm saying NSMBW was popular enough that it pushed hardware sales through the roof while NSMBU got a much more tepid reaction.
We already know that releasing to many NSMB games close to each other is a surefire way to make one of them irrelevant (NSMB2/NSMBU) so a 2008 release for a NSMB port would mean no 2D Mario for 2019.
I don't think anyone is going to buy Switches to get to NSMBU as well.
Captain toad and DKCTF shouldn't be used as examples Captain toad didn't even cross 1M on Switch and DKCTF barely sold more than Metroid Prime 2 on WiiU.
NSMBU is in a different place compared to these 2 games and is after all the 2nd best selling WiiU title.

 

[Borowski]

You always get one with an agenda and concern trolling? It's funny how they make fools of themselves.

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Agenda from someone who loves the series and has the new game as one of his favorite games of all time? That's new to me

 

[JSG87]

Well I'll be. I guess that Smash hype is pulling through for the Switch


Nope. They sold zero units. Sales really fell off a cliff for some reason ;)

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Oh hi quick Rick

 

[Beatle]

No, that's not how it works lol

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Well that would depend on who you ask, it does seem a lot of people bought into the Switch's "two in one" nature

 

[P-Switch]

Gen 8 will likely sell better due to all of the new Pokemon and very likely being a more ambitious title.

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Generally, more ambitious titles are less casual, less mass market friendly.

If Gen 8 Pokemon isn't very newbie friendly, i don't see why it would sell more than Pokémon Let's Go.

Not a chance unless Let's Go kills the franchise . . .

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*shrugs*

Gamers clamoring for "proper gen 8" Pokemon will check out Pokemon Let Go much more than they think they will

 

[Smiles]

I did not even expect Octopath to be top 10 wow I am very pleased to be wrong

 

[Sandfox]

Problem is that it kills momentum for any new Mario game for the next few years when it would much more profitable to just release the new game as it's going to be big enough to carry a holiday season by itself.
NSMBU won't be that, the fact that we're already 8 months in 2018 and we have no concrete information about it shows that it's not going to be the flagship release MK8 was or Pkmn LG or SSBU are going to be.
On top of that there's an argument to be made that NSMBU is probably not a product good enough for Switch when it failed to make WiiU appealing while NSMBW was basically their biggest title and was partly responsible for Wii's unbelievable end of year 2009 performance.
I'm saying NSMBW was popular enough that it pushed hardware sales through the roof while NSMBU got a much more tepid reaction.
We already know that releasing to many NSMB games close to each other is a surefire way to make one of them irrelevant (NSMB2/NSMBU) so a 2008 release for a NSMB port would mean no 2D Mario for 2019.
I don't think anyone is going to buy Switches to get to NSMBU as well.
Captain toad and DKCTF shouldn't be used as examples Captain toad didn't even cross 1M on Switch and DKCTF barely sold more than Metroid Prime 2 on WiiU.
NSMBU is in a different place compared to these 2 games and is after all the 2nd best selling WiiU title.

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There's nothing stopping them from releasing another Mario game in another year or two if they wanted and people would buy it.

Pretty much every Wii U game that has been ported to Switch has sold better on it, and NSMBU was a well received game with many people considering it the best of the NSMB games.

Generally, more ambitious titles are less casual, less mass market friendly.

If Gen 8 Pokemon isn't very newbie friendly, i don't see why it would sell more than Pokémon Let's Go.



*shrugs*

Gamers clamoring for "proper gen 8" Pokemon will check out Pokemon Let Go much more than they think they will

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I would argue that all Pokemon games are newbie friendly. It's still a franchise aimed mostly at children.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I think Octopath is a bit of an anamoly. You aren't gonna get JRPGs getting to no.1 often. It had a lot of marketing. And Switch people are thirsty for a new game on the system.
I mean it's good it sold so well but it came out at the best time possible which will probably not happen again in the near future.

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Didn't know Nicki Minaj was on ERA xD

 

[sfortunato]

I think Octopath is a bit of an anamoly. You aren't gonna get JRPGs getting to no.1 often. It had a lot of marketing. And Switch people are thirsty for a new game on the system.
I mean it's good it sold so well but it came out at the best time possible which will probably not happen again in the near future.

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The slow period surely helped but what matters is sales, not rankings. Bravely Default didn't open at number 1 but still sold very well in the US, for example. Same for Fire Emblem.

The game received good marketing but nothing special. It wasn't treated as a Nintendo AAA game.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

Generally, more ambitious titles are less casual, less mass market friendly.

If Gen 8 Pokemon isn't very newbie friendly, i don't see why it would sell more than Pokémon Let's Go.



*shrugs*

Gamers clamoring for "proper gen 8" Pokemon will check out Pokemon Let Go much more than they think they will

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Pokémon is already a "newb" friendly series Let's Go is trying to get the Pokémon Go crowd who are probably not willing to spend over $360 to play this game.