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NPD October 2017: Shadow of War #1 SW, Nintendo Switch #1 HW
- Thread starter ZhugeEX
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Are you allowed to say what retail chain you work for? Or is that classified information.
Also that gamestop press release has PS4 Pro as the best selling online console with regular ps4 no where to be seen. That doesn't sound right?
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Just read this after posting my previous post...fair enough :)
Like I said, even with your actual knowledge of accurate sales info...even you have to admit you are making your own speculation/guess of what the final November's sales numbers are based on your segment of data, right?
Yours is probably more accurate speculations than 99% of people in this thread...but it's still speculation.
It still should be a "fun horse race" here. Again, it's a horse race where 99% of the people here may have a horse they bet on, maybe a couple, maybe neutral...but they are watching the race on a really crappy tv with the picture only showing up for 5 seconds intermittently
And we are all left trying to determine the race and what's going on based on that little info of intermittent pictures.
The other 1%, including you, are the play by play guys in the booth who is watching the whole race. And even then, the winners at the end are still speculative (even if you've seen the horses do the laps and you can see who is leading)
Just let the people with the crappy tv's have fun speculating on the game they can make out.
I really don't want to argue with the play-by-play announcers who are watching everything :P. These speculation threads are all about the horse betters.
Let the results thread be about the info guys.
We should get a better picture by January as to what's coming down the pipe, but they have some big things announced (Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Metroid Prime 4) or almost surely in the pipeline (Smash, Animal Crossing).
I can't see this being a huge factor. The people wanting graphics are buying Pros and 1Xs.
There's at least a reason to buy Switch version of multi-platform games because of the portability. We should see improved 3rd party support next year given the comments companies have made in their fiscal results. EA's probably the only question mark, but the Japanese 3rd parties seem bullish on the Switch. Will be a few exclusives and some mid-tier titles that are PS4/Switch.
I mean I get you phantom, but I also don't want 15 pages of absolute guff that in the end amount to being entirely wrong.
DS and Wii were never as expensive as the Switch though... Actually they were much cheaper than their direct competition which helped them a lot. They also didn't manage those numbers in their first Holidays.
Switch numbers will be good regardless.... But they won't sell this year numbers that are reserved for whenever they can hit 200-250 and have a massive stock. 2017 isn't the year.
This is a formal thread, though, with insiders contributing their no doubt valuable time and insight - surely they don't want to wade through superfluous waffle. I understand the appeal in gamifying the speculation, but this may not be the exact place.
They also have tons of bundle-worthy games that are out and are coming out
Yeah right now the Switch isn't even touching many of the usual target groups because of its price point. Next year when they can sell or for 250 and include a game like Mario Kart 8D things will be more attractive for more customers.
Switch effectively costs nearly twice as much as some of those base PS4 + gift card deals. The fact that it can even keep up at that price point is impressive in itself. You can only imagine what numbers could be possible once the price comes down.
I think the next step is to officially go to $249 with a pack in (Horizon would make a lot of sense).
I could see another time limited $199 1Tb slim around Xmas though, as it worked apparently so well to push volume.
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What people ask and talk on stores... not necessary what they bought.
Most are probably asking about X on Target that makes it a popular item but how many of these have the money to buy it is an unknown.
All depends on what profit / loss comes from a $199 price point. Might not be worth it to them unless its going to massively increase sales and outside holidays / black friday would it make such a substantial difference? Also what would that mean for a sale next year? $150? Not sure manufacturing costs are coming down that far
I think what Sony will do is cut the BF2 bundle to $249. For an additional bundle, Sony will either release a standard COD bundle or a Horizon bundle for $249.
lol that's true.
I value the input of people like Benji in prediction threads. I just don't want to get caught up arguing with Benji or MattNPD for suggesting this is ALL speculation on varied, limited data...and most people are interpreting limited data according to an already constructed schema in their head. Which is normal human behavior.
Which is FINE...that's what a speculation/prediction thread should be! (Can't be any different, really)
It just a weird vibe that people are taking offense to me suggesting some people here, and some companies being quoted, are still just speculators. And some have a narrative they are trying to push with their "data" (like Adobe Analytics and Target)
I GET I should get in line with Benji because he's probably more impartial and has more data than others...but I dont want to have to be reminded THIS on every page of a prediction thread or go back and forth with him or Matt because I'm not taking some people more seriously (like they think I should)...I'd like to be able to question Benji as much as I question amad Issa, have some healthy skepticism for both, but I guess that's offputting here.
*shrugs* I gave my personal prediction a few pages back, probably should just bow out of this thread now. Commenting on other speculators seems to ruffle too many feathers.
I'm not from Neogaf so I don't know all the personalities here yet :/
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Not only do I agree with all of this, my post never implied anything contrary to it. Were you just using it as a springboard to make a larger point?
My point is a 900k result for Switch in November would really only disappoint someone with unrealistic expectations.
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I think the first major revision and its reception will give us a clearer view as to whether it'll finish closer to the 3DS or Wii.
Personally, I don't even think 100m is completely unassailable. The handheld factor will contribute to multiple sales in one household. But it's early.
I didn't even want a switch and there's already 2 within my family wtf...
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oh and pricedrop. 300 is still hefty
It's easy to see where they're coming from though. Recently we've started to see some crazy switch expectations (like selling 25-30 million next year). Right now the switch is selling a good amount but nothing mind blowing. Whilst it has been seeing sellouts it's impossible to know how high the demand is. It could top out at monstrous levels like the wii or maybe it'll settle at a much lower level. We just don't know yet.
Also we don't even have data for November yet. Until we have that I don't know how anyone can talk about what this month means to the switch.
I am curious what Nintendo has next year because I think there is the potential for things to slow down a bit. They could have some huge games coming next year but it feels like we're so in the dark right now.
I don't think I've seen the 25-30 million prediction yet (sounds... insane). Craziest is "they'll sell as much as they ship," but that's because it ignores what's been recently pushing crazy numbers in the Holiday season.
There was a Wall Street Journal article claiming that's what Nintendo intends to produce from April 2018-March 2019. It seems unrealistic to me, unless Nintendo has an incredibly aggressive lineup planned for the next 12+ months.
Oh I see. Seems too high but I guess it's too far out to see.
There were rumors of Nintendo shipping 25 to 30 million next fiscal year. https://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendos-game-plan-to-level-up-switch-production-1510291065
Edit:ninjaed while looking for the link.
It doesn't say it is ranked. Just some of the best selling
Also, the $50 gift card with the PS4 was in store only.
Don't Nintendo expect to sell another 7-8 million by March? So around 2.5-3 million US? If so they must be expecting it to get in or around one million this month then similar or slightly bigger numbers in December. Maybe 800k-1million I'd guess would be in line with what they expect. This is unless they are going to flood Japan in Switches in the next two months at the expense of other markets. They could probably clear 3 or 4 million in Japan by March if they eradicate shortages
That's just it without knowing the lineup it's hard to see that as anything but lie in the sky. However I'd say smash bros, animal crossing, Pokemon and other games are coming who knows how high they'll go.
Whilst I was getting caught up in he hype somewhat I'm trying to temper hose expectations now. I see the switch having a solid but not mind blowing November and December and likewise going into next year. Whether or not next year continues the big sales numbers will depend on what Nintendo has in store.
This excludes Japan where I think the monster sales are going to continue for sure (though again maybe not quite at the levels some are suggesting).
Some parts (Ram) have probably increased in price as oppose to decreasing as expected since its release ? Also some elements of production just never scale or decrease (distribution, freight etc)
They'll sell well above 3M by year's end in Japan without eradicating shortage.
The best year for the Wii was 26 million, no ? Hard to believe the Switch (or any other console) will ever beat that
I mean shortages of stock not shortage of demand - edit - not sure whats I've posted even makes sense :/! Basically saying that if they can increase supply to 3 million thats what they'll likely sell. If they can ship more than that ye maybe they'll sell even more
The DS beat it repeatedly. A lot of people talk about the Wii but the true monster was the Nintendo DS :
DS 2007 : 29M
DS 2008 : 32M
DS 2009 : 29M
Oh I see. But you shouldn't worry, 3M is a given according to November's shipments and past sales trend. It should end between 3.5M and 4M.
They most probably aren't - Slim had deals at 199 Eur (and 249 bundles with 2-3 pieces of software) in October 2016 in EU, this thing was built to price scale.
What's surprising is there hasn't been a price drop in Japan yet though - it looks like they could use one there the most?
I doubt he would say. The last time he said something, it sounds like the Switch is way behind the others during BF, but the system is doing well throughout the whole month so far. I would deduct that all three systems are doing very well.
If Sony are losing money I doubt it's a sign amount, they'll easily make it back from SW sales and online subscriptions. With how successful they are at monetising the userbase they should want as many in hands as possible. They're making an insane amount of money right now.
I meant home console. How much was the DS between 2007 and 2009?
It's not even knowing personalities, you're essentially downplaying analysis from outside of this forum (either from a person or from a retailer) with at the very least some bearing on the retail data by calling them speculators with a narrative. It's not like it's wrong to question some of their personal takes on the data nor is it useless to do so, but arbitrarily doing so (and sometimes even trying to tell such people how their field works like some people) because you believe at their heart they're the same kind of speculator you are gets the discussion nowhere.
And pushing for your own narrative that there is a narrative is a narrative that doesn't bring anything to the table.
It is not the price that determines whether a console is portable. A more accurate metric will be the ability of the device to push more than one console per household. It is a thing that neither the PS4 nor the XB1 can do but the Switch can.
A lot of analysts believe that with games like Pokemon, the number of switch per household will increase.
They predict (Credit Suisse for example) that the Switch will follow a portable sales trend and not a console one.
Prob gonna get ripped but
Japan just isn't as important to Sony as it was back in the day. I don't think they care about losing japan.
I was going to buy a Switch for a relative on Amazon, but it's currently out of stock it seems. Fortunately, the price is the same whether I got it today or 2 weeks from now. Just need to get it before Christmas of course. Lol
I'm sure the $199 PS4 is doing well. It's a great price.
I'm sure the $199 PS4 is doing well. It's a great price.
Yeh I just see people saying they are losing money at 199 without any proof. As for Japan, that place has become irrelevant for home consoles.
Obviously, it is easier to sell more than one console per household when the price is $149, and not $299. The Switch might be a portable but it is priced like a home console.
Even with Pokemon and the "more than one console per household", the 3DS never reach 15 million unit a year. Do we really think that the Switch can sell 30 million next year at $299 (and maybe $249 for the holidays)? Do we really think it will sell as much as an under $149 DS?
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I think the reality he know who the winner is by far, but doesn't wanna give it away. he said the other day ps4 was nuking from orbital and black friday seems like ps4 made a bigger gap with switch on black friday. so to me ps4>>xbone>>> switch. xbox will be closer, because a new system launch, and plenty of stock for the 189$ model. there is no way though switch was outselling ps4 by that much during the first 3 weeks, to make it close to ps4 after the black friday sales.
Regardless if they are losing money or not, the extra software sales will work wonders.
Who knows if the Switch will ever sell 30 million in one year? I personally don't expect any system to sell 30 million in a year this generation and I don't think Lelouch was either. Sure, the 3DS may never have sold 15 million units, outside of its launch year, but the Switch is currently tracking ahead of the 3DS and, unlike the 3DS, didn't need a price drop or for Nintendo to have to divert all of their resources to start making games for it in order for the Switch to be successful. These factors alone make the 3DS a bit of an outlier. Usually, most other successful systems tend to peak after a few years. The Switch, so far, is looking like a successful system and so it should have a few more years before it peaks in terms of sales as it seems that support is overall improving since launch
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First of all, the WSJ figure is 25-30M produced next fiscal year. Not even shipped so it is not about Nintendo selling 30M you'll admit.
For now they are planning to sell 16.7M Switch in 13 months. With some shortage and without discount.
I'll wait to see their line up for 2018 before making a guess. They can also have a very aggressive strategy with the release of a cheaper dockless Switch. But right now I will not say 20-25 sold are out of the question.
Of course, the Switch is selling very well right now. But there is a difference between selling very well and selling as much (or close) as the best selling console ever (the DS).
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