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phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
Yeah, I think he was just showing that the October sales were not a case of Nintendo selling all they can ship currently.

Right...but so what?

Demand doesnt have to meet supply in Sept and Oct in order to meet it in Nov/Dec...which was my point with the ps4 figures.

People shouldn't get lost in the weeds of arguing how many unsold Switch's in the wild there were the 6 week's leading up to November. Cause it doesn't accurately reflect future demand of a product at all.
 

Phendrift

Member
Oct 25, 2017
32,330
I don't think Switch will win November simply because there will be no good Black Friday sales compared to PS4 and XB1. Would love to be proven wrong though.
 

LOCK

Member
Oct 25, 2017
465
Nintendo and shipments in November and December:

Shipments as of Sept. 2017:

Japan - 1.95mil ------> 25.56% of total
Americas - 3.11mil ------> 40.76% of total
Europe/other - 2.56mil ------> 33.55% of total

Total - 7.63mil

Of which 4.89mil is from the current FY and they currently forcast 14mil.

Forcast availability:
14mil - 4.89mil = 9.11mil available in Q3 and Q4.

Maintaining regional % allotments for Q3 and Q4:
Japan - 9.11 * 25.56% = 2.33mil
Americas - 9.11 * 40.76% = 3.71mil
Europe/other - 9.11 * 33.55% = 3.06mil

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Considering that the Switch sold around 300k in Japan and US for October, and that they probably want around 300k (guesstimate) available for each region in non holiday months, then I think a 1mil estimate for November and December is doable.

The big unknown is if they plan to beat their forecast, cause it really depends on how fast they can make them, and if they maintain the regional breakdown.

I personally think the shipments for Japan is low at these ratios. Nintendo needs 6mil more Switches.
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,335
Using 25% isn't really realistic when it is selling out there, I think the percentage for Japan will be much bigger in the next quaters.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
Finally some numbers
LOCK thanks for that.

1/4 Japan
40% Americas
1/3 Europe + rest.

When talking about Americas we have to consider the 10% of units extra for Canada plus whatever for Latin America.

January is no big month, but February and March are fairly big and in line with September and October in the Fall. Definitely not as slow as the Summer.

3.7 million over 2 quarter is not really that much at all for the whole of Americas.
Ps4 sold through over 3 million units in 2015 during the Holidays in the US alone.

The supply is still limited if they want to stock all regions the same. And if the want to increase stock allocations for Japan the situation looks even more bleak.
 

Huey

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,242
Pretty abysmal first month for GT, particularly given the ps4 install base. Hopefully polyphony learns their lesson - the series success is built on single player.
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
I don't think Switch will win November simply because there will be no good Black Friday sales compared to PS4 and XB1. Would love to be proven wrong though.

Well, is it usual for the cheapest priced console in November to win November?

Or are you feeling that the non-ps4 Pro ps4's and the non-Xbox X xboxes have a greater market demand than the Switch this holiday?
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
I honestly don't think parents will be desperately looking for a Switch in November, not after seeing it widely available in October, and selling sub 300k in Mario Odyssey month.

Well I dunno....like I said the ps4 had sub 300k sales in October from 2014-2016...parents saw the machine widely available for months...why did they wait till novemeber to buy them?

And I agree with people who say that the last two days of Oct equals "Mario month" is not valid. It's not the type of game that the majority of gamers interested in playing it will rush out to spend $300 in October to play it day 1.

It's a huge system seller, no doubt, but not a 2 day system seller.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
Well I dunno....like I said the ps4 had sub 300k sales in October from 2014-2016...parents saw the machine widely available for months...why did they wait till novemeber to buy them?

And I agree with people who say that the last two days of Oct equals "Mario month" is not valid. It's not the type of game that the majority of gamers interested in playing it will rush out to spend $300 in October to play it day 1.

It's a huge system seller, no doubt, but not a 2 day system seller.

Because November has BF sales? The PS4 to Switch comparison just doesn't work, especially not this year. That's not to say Switch won't see an uptick in November sales but consider that line of thought for a second.

If someone is waiting to buy a console in October due to potential savings in November, that only really works against the Switch. PS4 for example will drop down to $199. Switch isn't going to drop, especially not drastically. Since November/December is when price senstitivity is king, lower October numbers are harder to offset.

Basically what I'm saying is:

Not every potential Switch buyer in October who held off for November will end up buying the Switch due to much more competitive price points for the competitors.
 

NSESN

▲ Legend ▲
Member
Oct 25, 2017
25,335
Because November has BF sales? The PS4 to Switch comparison just doesn't work, especially not this year. That's not to say Switch won't see an uptick in November sales but consider that line of thought for a second.

If someone is waiting to buy a console in October due to potential savings in November, that only really works against the Switch. PS4 for example will drop down to $199. Switch isn't going to drop, especially not drastically. Since November/December is when price senstitivity is king, lower October numbers are harder to offset.

Basically what I'm saying is:

Not every potential Switch buyer in October who held off for November will end up buying the Switch due to much more competitive price points for the competitors.
While what you said will probably be true for November, I think it being a desired christmas gift can offset the lack of sales in December. December is also a month where family games have higher potential iirc, so Odyssey should help with its good word of mouth.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
I still think Switch will sell every unit put in distribution (but who knows how many that will be) and Odyssey will come in at #4 in the quarter behind COD, SWBFII and NBA2K18 but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

But I also know that trying to predict the holiday can be nuts sometimes. Weird things happen. Who knows, some retailer could put Madden on sale for $15 near Christmas and that could push Madden ahead. Too many variables to predict with a lot of confidence.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
I still think Switch will sell every unit put in distribution (but who knows how many that will be) and Odyssey will come in at #4 in the quarter behind COD, SWBFII and NBA2K18 but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

But I also know that trying to predict the holiday can be nuts sometimes. Weird things happen. Who knows, some retailer could put Madden on sale for $15 near Christmas and that could push Madden ahead. Too many variables to predict with a lot of confidence.

More tea leaf reading than SCIENCE! at this stage huh.

Is the "gut feeling" ranking based off revenue? Or units sold?

ApparentlyBenjisaid NSW stock was plentiful for October, I am not sure that will change for November, even with increased demand, as Nintendo seems determined to ship more.

Also, historically, do products with no discount (NSW, XBX this year) get as much as a holiday boost as discounted items (PS4) in the holiday season? It seems unlikely that retailers will discount an item perceived as "hot".
 
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James

Member
Oct 25, 2017
271
US
Lots of confident predictions for all contenders in November NPD. That means thing will be interesting for us as spectators.

My prediction is that Microsoft wins in November. And Nintendo wins. And Sony wins. And especially the consumers win with the incredible selection of hardware and software to choose from.

One serious prediction is that Sony will not be number one in consumer spend. I don't see them moving enough units to overcome certainly having the lowest average sale price.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,172
Lots of confident predictions for all contenders in November NPD. That means thing will be interesting for us as spectators.

My prediction is that Microsoft wins in November. And Nintendo wins. And Sony wins. And especially the consumers win with the incredible selection of hardware and software to choose from.

One serious prediction is that Sony will not be number one in consumer spend. I don't see them moving enough units to overcome certainly having the lowest average sale price.
You FILTH PILE. The only winner for November is CLEARLY...

The Sega Genesis Flashback HD. The hippest newest plug-n-play console that ISN'T an utter load of garbage and was DEFINITELY not quietly delayed from its original September 22nd release after a myriad of horrible reviews.
 

Startropper

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,005
It's extremely surprising nonetheless considering how many that jump in day 1, especially if PC sales arent counting and we're basically counting Forza 7 XB1 vs GTS PS4 sales, I thought GTS would sell like 3:1 easily just by having the name Gran Turismo in the title and being on PS4. It'll be interesting to see if we're getting a second sales peak for F7 in Nov because of Xbox One X.

For me it's just something interesting to follow.

You have a racing genre that's losing prominence. A juggernaut franchise like GT and then Forza both trying to remain relevant.

One sort of embraced the Call of Duty matra and keeps high brand awareness year after year while the other takes a more traditional 3 year approach and still considerably outsells the competition.

Which approach is better? Is Forza or others eating away at the GT pie? Or is it simple the genre losing popularity, especially in the west.

It'll be interesting to track the sales of each during the holidays.
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
I always go by revenue because units are too easy to get with deep discounting and because you can't put units in the bank. Dollah dollah bills y'all.

Hey Mat,
are we seeing stronger third party performances for Switch relative to the Wii, SNES and 64? Or no?

Probably?

Without digital it's a bit hard to tell, and it's a bit early to know for sure. Indies seem to be getting great performance from what they say... but big titles from 3rd parties were a bit slow to get to the party.

Mario + Rabbids is huge and it's 3rd party, technically?
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
I always go by revenue because units are too easy to get with deep discounting and because you can't put units in the bank. Dollah dollah bills y'all.



Probably?

Without digital it's a bit hard to tell, and it's a bit early to know for sure. Indies seem to be getting great performance from what they say... but big titles from 3rd parties were a bit slow to get to the party.

Mario + Rabbids is huge and it's 3rd party, technically?

What are you expectations for Skyrim ? (Debut, legs ...)
 

HStallion

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
62,262
I wonder how that PSVR Skyrim bundle will be doing sales wise come next months NPD thread. I know like 4 people seriously interested in picking it up.
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,836
Well I dunno....like I said the ps4 had sub 300k sales in October from 2014-2016...parents saw the machine widely available for months...why did they wait till novemeber to buy them?

And I agree with people who say that the last two days of Oct equals "Mario month" is not valid. It's not the type of game that the majority of gamers interested in playing it will rush out to spend $300 in October to play it day 1.

It's a huge system seller, no doubt, but not a 2 day system seller.
Because of BF deals.
The PS4 went back to its $299 MSRP more than a month ago, and was still selling fine, until about mid October when everybody expected some kind of price drop to be announced, even if only $50.

Then up to the first week of November, we saw the PS4 fall on Amazon rankings, the BF2 bundle pre orders not taking off (I see this one @ $249 in December doing well), and the Cod WW2 bundle doing very meh. Because many expect a price drop/ see no incentives.
Then, a week ago, Black Friday week deals drop. The PS4 will have the best deal of the season bar none (1Tb PS4 @ $199, gift card added in some places for BF alone) for a whole week nationwide including online, not just door busters.
This should tell you everything you need to know about the stocks Sony prepped.
It's like in previous years. Late Oct/ first 3 weeks of Nov are weak to "ok". Suddenly it's Black Friday and people go nuts for "black friday deals".

The Switch will do fine, but it doesn't have much of anything in terms of deals (why would it? It's brand new. Well... And Nintendo).

The XB1S has already been at $199 for at least 2 weeks now, and not setting anything on fire. But the $189 is labelled a doorbuster and it'll sell volume sure.

I might end up very wrong, but I think if my analysis is correct people will be surprised by PS4 sales over just 1 week.
 

Deleted member 4021

Oct 25, 2017
1,707
Hey Mat,
are we seeing stronger third party performances for Switch relative to the Wii, SNES and 64? Or no?
Probably not a very meaningful comparison until/unless 3rd parties get fully on board the Switch with more than just late ports or a couple sports games. But indies sure are benefiting from being first to the party.
 

Kittenz

Member
Oct 28, 2017
3,159
Minneapolis
Interesting. Swap Forza (higher up for the platform) and GT and the Xbox/PS lists are practically identical.

So many holidays. So few 1st party exclusives everywhere.
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
Because November has BF sales? The PS4 to Switch comparison just doesn't work, especially not this year. That's not to say Switch won't see an uptick in November sales but consider that line of thought for a second.

BF sales?

I'm talking about the Nov uptick every Nov since the Xbox One and ps4 released....every Oct is sub 300k, every Nov is 800k-1.5 million.

I was replying to someone saying "who would buy a Switch in Novemeber when they could have bought one in Oct when Mario launched...less than 300k sold! They were just sitting on the shelves!"....clearly, there are many who will choose to buy a Switch in nov instead of Oct. Somewhere between 800k-1.5 million

(Oh wait...were you arguing about the ps4 and Xbox outselling the Switch this nov cause of BF 2? Sure that's possible, I wasn't saying Switch would sell the most this November though)


If someone is waiting to buy a console in October due to potential savings in November, that only really works against the Switch. PS4 for example will drop down to $199. Switch isn't going to drop, especially not drastically. Since November/December is when price senstitivity is king, lower October numbers are harder to offset.

I really doubt someone is deciding wether to get an OG ps4 or a Switch this November...they just offer completely different experiences. You have a proclivity to one kind of gaming experience or another kind.

As far as pricing, Xbox One outsold the ps4 Nov 2014 even though it was still more expensive...again, just being the cheapest in Nov doesn't mean much (or else the 3ds and SNES mini will win :P)



Basically what I'm saying is:

Not every potential Switch buyer in October who held off for November will end up buying the Switch due to much more competitive price points for the competitors.

Anyone who really wants a Switch this year for zelda and Mario and Mario Kart and Splatoon...and who has yet to buy a PS4 or XboxOne yet this entire gen....seems like a person who could wait a little longer to get a PS4 or Xbox one if they are really interested in the Switch. I don't think price will be a factor in Switch sales this holiday...just desire and supply.

Now, having said that...I wouldn't be surprised if Xbox or ps4 outsells the Switch in November.

I would be surprised if the Switch doesn't outsell them both for the holiday, though.
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
I still think Switch will sell every unit put in distribution (but who knows how many that will be) and Odyssey will come in at #4 in the quarter behind COD, SWBFII and NBA2K18 but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

But I also know that trying to predict the holiday can be nuts sometimes. Weird things happen. Who knows, some retailer could put Madden on sale for $15 near Christmas and that could push Madden ahead. Too many variables to predict with a lot of confidence.

Hmm that's interesting...when a retailer chisels down a game like Madden to $15, do they generally start to sell 4-5 times as much to match/exceed would they would have earned at $60 each?

That seems to be what you are suggesting in that such a move would actually increase its revenue ranking overall?

I assume a seller would sell that low just to move the units that otherwise wouldn't sell (physical retailers obviously..)
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
In the weeks leading up to christmas deep discounts can return huge lifts.

Some new release titles do discounting around Christmas because the lifts more than make up for the discounting costs.

Discounting steep in Q1 is because you have units sitting around in the channel.
 

Rainrir

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,337
In the weeks leading up to christmas deep discounts can return huge lifts.

Some new release titles do discounting around Christmas because the lifts more than make up for the discounting costs.

Discounting steep in Q1 is because you have units sitting around in the channel.

It looks like discounting is the key to large unit sales.
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
Do Nintendo fans not pre-order games?

Sure. The same type of Nintendo fans who bought the Switch before October and the type of fans who made the Odyssey Switch bundle sell out.

But 3D Mario is hardly a day one system seller.

It's hard to judge past 3D mario's affect on hardware sales in their release month since most either released in November (hardware sells would be high this month regardless) or rhey launched with the system (again, hard to determine that affect)

But for the two outside of that:

Mario Sunshine's release propelled the GameCube to 128k in sales that NPD month

Mario Galaxy 2's release saw Wii sales at 335k for that NPD month.

In both cases it seems like 3D Mario has negligible immediate affect on system sells?

Definitely a system seller, but maybe not a day 1-2 seller :P
 

unapersson

Member
Oct 27, 2017
661
I don't think this year's Forza tried to appeal to the US market anymore than previous years' Forza, or maybe I misunderstood your 'presentation' comment.

It's just that US sports presenter narration style when you play which seems geared to the US market (it may well be consistent through the series). GT simply presents you with menus, its eclectic dashboard music and leaves you to it.

I'm not aware whether Forza 7 is doing any better sales wise than the previous ones. Haven't seen any numbers or even a percentage change.
 

Cantaim

Member
Oct 25, 2017
33,402
The Stussining
Upon reading the OP again it says that accessories are down 7% from last year was there a specific reason for that? I see that Gamecards are also down was that why or was there some really good sales on accessories happening last year that I forgot about?
 

Nintendojitsu

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
1,183
Brooklyn, NY
I still think Switch will sell every unit put in distribution (but who knows how many that will be) and Odyssey will come in at #4 in the quarter behind COD, SWBFII and NBA2K18 but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

But I also know that trying to predict the holiday can be nuts sometimes. Weird things happen. Who knows, some retailer could put Madden on sale for $15 near Christmas and that could push Madden ahead. Too many variables to predict with a lot of confidence.

I like your optimism.
 
Oct 25, 2017
13,246
BF sales?

I'm talking about the Nov uptick every Nov since the Xbox One and ps4 released....every Oct is sub 300k, every Nov is 800k-1.5 million.

I was replying to someone saying "who would buy a Switch in Novemeber when they could have bought one in Oct when Mario launched...less than 300k sold! They were just sitting on the shelves!"....clearly, there are many who will choose to buy a Switch in nov instead of Oct. Somewhere between 800k-1.5 million

(Oh wait...were you arguing about the ps4 and Xbox outselling the Switch this nov cause of BF 2? Sure that's possible, I wasn't saying Switch would sell the most this November though)




I really doubt someone is deciding wether to get an OG ps4 or a Switch this November...they just offer completely different experiences. You have a proclivity to one kind of gaming experience or another kind.

As far as pricing, Xbox One outsold the ps4 Nov 2014 even though it was still more expensive...again, just being the cheapest in Nov doesn't mean much (or else the 3ds and SNES mini will win :P)





Anyone who really wants a Switch this year for zelda and Mario and Mario Kart and Splatoon...and who has yet to buy a PS4 or XboxOne yet this entire gen....seems like a person who could wait a little longer to get a PS4 or Xbox one if they are really interested in the Switch. I don't think price will be a factor in Switch sales this holiday...just desire and supply.

Now, having said that...I wouldn't be surprised if Xbox or ps4 outsells the Switch in November.

I would be surprised if the Switch doesn't outsell them both for the holiday, though.

Yea, you seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of the type of buyer during November/December. Switch is not being bought by every single person who is looking exclusively to buy a Switch. Price sensitivity is a thing and it will absolutely factor into it when people are buying something, whether for themselves or as gifts for others.

And yes, the Xbox One outsold the PS4 in November of 2014. It was also $50 cheaper than the PS4 (and in some places, $70 cheaper). So thank you for reinforcing my point. The XB1 won that November despite having lost the previous 10 months of sales because it was the cheaper product.
 

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,836
...
I really doubt someone is deciding wether to get an OG ps4 or a Switch this November...they just offer completely different experiences. You have a proclivity to one kind of gaming experience or another kind.

As far as pricing, Xbox One outsold the ps4 Nov 2014 even though it was still more expensive...again, just being the cheapest in Nov doesn't mean much (or else the 3ds and SNES mini will win :P)
...
What on earth are you talking about man?

It is widely recognized that MS had to throw everything at Sony during the Holiday 2014 period to win, and a deep discount ended up with huge sales that year.
They packed in $100 worth of software (AC unity and Black flag) at $399 starting in November, and they dropped the price by $70 ($329) during the Black Friday week period all the way through Cyber Monday.

https://news.xbox.com/2014/11/25/xbox-one-black-friday-deals/
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,965
The decline in the UK you talk about is retail launch sales. The landscape is so much different today. Day one physical sales are not that imporant anymore. They don't necessarily make up the majority of sales anymore.

Physical sales are still near a majority and the decline Forza has had is not entirely made up by even the largest digital rates.

The leader board for the first race after one week? Was around 1.35 million for both Forza Motorsport 6 and 7. Very similar, basically identical.
http://m./showpost.php?p=251466179
The leader board for Forza Motorsport 6 is at 4.85 million now.
The leader board for Forza Motorsport 5 is at 7.95 million now.
And I'm aware those are just accounts and not sales, but a ratio of below 50% is seems unlikely, don't you think?

Without any precedent, how are we supposed to know?

You made up the number, that numerous Forza Motorsport titels combined sold below 5 million. (By my math that has to be 2 games at least and below 2.5m on average)
I just said it's most likely they're all above 2.5 million except the first iteration on the original Xbox and 7 just not yet.

I know the 5 million sales for GT 6 are directly from Polyphony Digital and accurate.
I disagree with your implication, that GT is still selling more than 2 Forza Motorsport games combined today. That's the whole point of my "made up numbers".

No, I've simply gone with what happens in most markets, especially the biggest racing game market,EU: GT selling numerous Forza titles combined. You really haven't shown any sales data meanwhile to suggest Forza titles sell > 2.5 million.
 

Jade1962

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
4,259
Not the prediction thread but PS4 had gone from 62 to 7 in the Amazon rankings already and the East coast is barely waking up.

Will cyber Monday be counted in November NPD?
 

phantomx

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
1,801
What on earth are you talking about man?

It is widely recognized that MS had to throw everything at Sony during the Holiday 2014 period to win, and a deep discount ended up with huge sales that year.
They packed in $100 worth of software (AC unity and Black flag) at $399 starting in November, and they dropped the price by $70 ($329) during the Black Friday week period all the way through Cyber Monday.

https://news.xbox.com/2014/11/25/xbox-one-black-friday-deals/

Yea my mistake, I can see now that the XboxOne was a $50 cheaper option than the ps4 Nov 2014...my apologies!
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
Not the prediction thread but PS4 had gone from 62 to 7 in the Amazon rankings already and the East coast is barely waking up.

Will cyber Monday be counted in November NPD?
No. Cyber Monday is always December tracking period.

No, I've simply gone with what happens in most markets, especially the biggest racing game market,EU: GT selling numerous Forza titles combined. You really haven't shown any sales data meanwhile to suggest Forza titles sell > 2.5 million.
No i showed plenty of data and gave explanations. You on the other hand just said "it does not sell that much"
 
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Elios83

Member
Oct 28, 2017
976
Have we found out specific numbers besides Switch being around 290-300k?
So far in the year PS4 and Switch have been really close in monthly sales despite who's winning the month (that's why PS4 is still ahead YTD) with Xbox being a distant third.
November will definetly be an interesting month, Nintendo will have its first holiday season with the Switch, Microsoft has the launch of the Xbox One X and Sony is offering the PS4 at a mass market price with their 199$ deals.
Things to consider though are the lack of deals on the Switch side and its hardware supply. Also it's not clear how much the sales boost created by the launch of the Xbox One X will be offset by the general decline in demand we have seen for the basic model compared to last year.
So yeah November will be interesting to predict although I think that all three will do well for different reasons and that is good for the industry.
 
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