PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

Shin · Nov 20, 2017

Don't forget: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...nd-fourth-xbox-to-launch-2019-at-the-earliest
They should have an idea give or take when it will happen, obviously they aren't going to say anything.
Off-topic: their software sell just as much on PS4 as with PC+XBOX combined (it's really crazy how well their games sell on a PS platform).

skyappl · Nov 20, 2017

I'm thinking it'll come out when Sony can make a 16 TF or greater console and sell it for $500 or less. There needs to be a significant and obvious jump in visual quality (along with AI and other gameplay improvements enabled by a much more powerful CPU) in order to justify it. Starting a new generation is an extremely expensive endeavor and if customers don't immediately understand why they should upgrade, it's going to be rough for Sony financially.

Going back to the technical specs, considering Microsoft just released a 6 TF console for $500 a couple weeks ago, I don't see it being possible to release something almost three times more powerful for the same price within the next two years. I would put the release of the PS5 therefore around 2020 or 2021.

Red Cadet 015 · Nov 20, 2017

skyappl said:
I'm thinking it'll come out when Sony can make a 16 TF or greater console and sell it for $500 or less. There needs to be a significant and obvious jump in visual quality (along with AI and other gameplay improvements enabled by a much more powerful CPU) in order to justify it. Starting a new generation is an extremely expensive endeavor and if customers don't immediately understand why they should upgrade, it's going to be rough for Sony financially.

Going back to the technical specs, considering Microsoft just released a 6 TF console for $500 a couple weeks ago, I don't see it being possible to release something almost three times more powerful for the same price within the next two years. I would put the release of the PS5 therefore around 2020 or 2021.

Exactly. Sony isn't going to launch when there's only sone marginal increase in quality. PS5 needs to do things like GI and massive physics processing out of the box at true 4K 30fps at least. Anything else isn't worth releasing a console for.

Deleted member 29909 · Nov 20, 2017

I'm expecting 2019 and 10 TF. Looking forward to all the rummor threads once dev kits start going out.

SharpX68K · Nov 21, 2017

Red Cadet 015 said:
Exactly. Sony isn't going to launch when there's only sone marginal increase in quality. PS5 needs to do things like GI and massive physics processing out of the box at true 4K 30fps at least. Anything else isn't worth releasing a console for.

I totally agree.

And something like 8-9 TFlops / 16GB RAM just ain't gonna cut it. They'd be setting themselves up to get leap frogged, not by a Microsoft mid-gen console like X1X, but Microsoft's new base hardware.

Sony shouldn't release PS5 in 2019 only to need PS5 Pro in 2022 because Microsoft released another monster in 2020 or 2021.

Sony should make the absolute best hardware they can for release in late 2020 for $400 even if they have to take a small or modest loss on hardware (though nothing to the extent of PS3) for the first 6 months or so.

Adookah · Nov 21, 2017

My prediction:

PS5
November 2020
AMD ZEN APU
8 cores 16 threads
12TF
24GB RAM
2TB SSHD
399$

Panajev2001a · Nov 21, 2017

Adookah said:
My prediction:

PS5
November 2020
AMD ZEN APU
8 cores 16 threads
12TF
24GB RAM
2TB SSHD
399$

16 GB of fast RAM, 4 cores and 8 threads (higher efficiency next iteration of Zen Mobile Core) but at a higher frequency (letting die area space for the GPU), maybe smaller and cheaper user replaceable HDD and we are there ;).

I do hope they pull something crazy off within the semi part of semi custom though... Tensor Flow co-processor? We shall see :D.

gcwy · Nov 21, 2017

dgrdsv said:
Well, this isn't really true either. As I've said above, PS3 was often criticized for its CPU being too weak for general purpose stuff (only one PPC in order core).
Modern consoles have better CPUs in pretty much every way possible - if we consider that what Cell SPEs were used for is now done on GPUs anyway so it's not a loss of not having them in a CPU anymore.

I think this idea of weak CPUs of modern consoles is appearing mostly because some devs want something akin to Intel Cores in there. And I agree, it would be nice. It would also be cool to have a GTX 1080 Ti on the OG PS4 and 64 GBs of GDDR6 RAM. Then the reality hits us with the fact that the only better CPU AMD could've used there would be from the lackluster Bulldozer family and due to it being several times more complex than Jaguar it would likely be a couple of "modules" (meaning 2 INT and 4 FP "cores", a downgrade from Jaguars in throughput), would affect the speed of the GPU negatively and in the end provide a worse overall APU than what we got.

The Cell was pretty powerful for physics based simulation and so was the Xenon in their time, and I was talking relatively. At the time of PS4 and Xbox One's release, there were far more powerful Intel CPUs in the PC market. I'm not arguing current gen CPUs are weaker compared to last gen CPUs, just that the expected jump in performance we've had in previous gens was nowhere to be seen. The i7-3770K which still has impressive single-core performance even to this day was released just an year before the consoles did. Compared to the 2005/2006 years, not only were the console CPUs just as good (if not better) than whatever the PC's best had to offer, the PC CPUs were also quite expensive. The Jaguars were the only choice console manufacturers had, at least in terms of saving power or costs or even help in reducing the size of the system, and that's fine. But there's no denying that the CPU leap, compared to the GPU/RAM and other things, was by far the smallest this gen. I might be speculating from here on out but this is also why, I wager, why we didn't see many physics oriented game design this gen and also why GPGPU was pushed so much at the start of this gen.

dgrdsv · Nov 21, 2017

gcwy said:
I'm not arguing current gen CPUs are weaker compared to last gen CPUs, just that the expected jump in performance we've had in previous gens was nowhere to be seen.

I've already said, this isn't the case, previous gens did not in fact have anything but pretty low end CPUs either. They did have some custom vector co-processors which allowed these slow CPUs to punch above their weight in tasks like graphics and physics (basically, gaming which is the only thing important on consoles) but in these days these calculations are moved to GPU compute and thus we simply don't need these SIMDs in console CPUs anymore. If you look at it this way you'll see that a jump from one IOE PPC core of Cell to eight OOE x86 cores of Orbis is actually very impressive. It's less the case with XBO but still, 3C/6T to 8C/8T is a nice performance increase.

gcwy said:
Compared to the 2005/2006 years, not only were the console CPUs just as good (if not better) than whatever the PC's best had to offer, the PC CPUs were also quite expensive.

This is somewhat true only for Xenon and this was covered rather quickly with the introduction of AMD's X3/X4s and Intel's Duos/Quads. Even then I'd argue that PC was quite a bit ahead even of Xenon on its launch in general purpose CPU power, consoles only kinda got ahead because of their highly optimized software which played specifically to Xenon's strengths.

gcwy said:
But there's no denying that the CPU leap, compared to the GPU/RAM and other things, was by far the smallest this gen.

I don't agree with this at all. It may have been the smallest jump between generations historically but not comparatively with PC CPUs where we have many years of stagnation in CPU space too. This is more of a general industry thing with CPUs these days IMO.

gcwy said:
I might be speculating from here on out but this is also why, I wager, why we didn't see many physics oriented game design this gen and also why GPGPU was pushed so much at the start of this gen.

GPGPUs where pushed because it's a logical evolution from previous console generations, with CPUs giving up on tasks which are more efficiently done on GPUs these days, and getting simpler and cooler in the process. And I'm not sure about the "physics oriented game design" - what do you mean exactly? Something like Havok physics hardly need a CPU faster than that in PS360 and anything above this is solidly a GPU compute territory. I'd argue that because of this shift from CPU based graphics (in a wide sense, including physics) processing to GPU compute processing we have projects like Dreams and Claybook this gen which would be simply impossible on previous gen h/w because their CPU+GPU would not be able to pull them off - despite their CPUs being "comparatively faster for their times".

So two more points in addition to a previous one:
1. Some devs would've like to get a 16C i9 in PS4 back at its launch which is nice but completely unrealistic and doesn't in fact mean that PS4's CPU is "weak".
2. CPU evolution is stagnating across all markets (even in mobile already) and consoles not getting the same "XXX times" increase this gen is partially a result of this general trend. It'll likely be even worse in the future btw.
3. Many workloads which were running on CPUs in previous gens are moved to GPU compute in this gen which in turn means that this gen CPUs can be considerably simpler (meaning "slower" when it comes to flops metrics) without actually loosing anything when it comes to gaming simulation possibilities.

Shin · Nov 21, 2017

Will they call it PS5 or PSX as a nod to the original PlayStation (not the recorder thing).
Since Sony Xperia X, iPhone X, Samsung Galaxy X, PSX (event), seems to be a trend at the moment.
This is such a fun topic, the curiousity, the speculation, expectation and plain crazy :)

Socky · Nov 21, 2017

If they are serious about Playstation continuing along a generational upgrade path I can't see it being anything other than the Playstation 5. Any other title would just cause unnecessary confusion and we saw how that turned out for Wii U.

Number9 · Nov 21, 2017

Socky said:
If they are serious about Playstation continuing along a generational upgrade path I can't see it being anything other than the Playstation 5. Any other title would just cause unnecessary confusion and we saw how that turned out for Wii U.

Why? Wii U games didn't work on the Wii, and vice versa. It all points to backwards compatibility for the PS5 and support on the PS4 for a few years after the new launch. Completely different scenario.

Kyoufu · Nov 21, 2017

PSX already exists and no, they wouldn't name it that. lol

Godzilla24 · Nov 21, 2017

Some of these predictions seem to far out there to be believable. I predict PS5 will be an 8 tf machine with 12 gb of ram. No backwards compatibility. Release in 2020. For 499.

Diarrhea Day-Lewis · Nov 21, 2017

While the 25th Anniversary of PS brand is 2019 and they could release it then, I would prefer October 2020 (PS2 Anniversary)

I can't see them doing anything less than 8 cores. Probably at 3Ghz. 7nm.

I'm hopeful for 32GB of whatever the best cost to performance RAM at the time. 10TF would suffice but I'd love 12TF+.

100GB UHD discs will alleviate some of the day one downloads for games like Halo 5 that have 10GB+ updates at launch.

All for $399.99 at launch. Games go to $64.99 or $69.99 as do basic controllers. DualShock 5 maybe splits into two halves for VR motion controls but at the least has an HD rumble type feature, smaller touch pad.

Trago · Nov 21, 2017

If they still believe in generations, they'd call it the PlayStation 5.

gundamkyoukai · Nov 21, 2017

Crusadernm said:
Some of these predictions seem to far out there to be believable. I predict PS5 will be an 8 tf machine with 12 gb of ram. No backwards compatibility. Release in 2020. For 499.

Yeah no .
XB1 X is only 2 TF behind that .
Sony is not going to bring a system 2 years after with such a small jump at 400 must less 500.
PS5 will be at least 10 to 12 TF and will have at least 16BG of ram.

Miniature Kaiju · Nov 21, 2017

I can actually see them going for a 4 core, 8 thread processor if it doesn't present problems for BC and nets them room for a beefier GPU. I said this before, more and more simulation code is being moved to the GPU, from physics to AI; it's a trend that won't change.

Socky · Nov 21, 2017

If Sony still called PS4 the Playstation 4, despite Japanese 'something to do with death' connotations with the number 4, they'll call it the Playstation 5. The only way they'll do differently is if it became a cloud service or something drastically different, but a new generational box couldn't really be called anything else after 25 years of sequential naming.

Miniature Kaiju · Nov 21, 2017

They'll release two boxes simultaneously: PS5 and PS5².

Kyoufu · Nov 21, 2017

Miniature Kaiju said:
They'll release two boxes simultaneously: PS5 and PS5².

That's what I'm hoping for. Give me a Pro model on day one.

Inuhanyou · Nov 21, 2017

People are going to be disappointed with all these predictions. You'd think some learned with how things have gone recently about what is prioritized and the limitations of silicon going forward.

I get being optimistic, but a lot of these things should be common sense to be off the table

Trago · Nov 21, 2017

Inuhanyou said:
People are going to be disappointed with all these predictions. You'd think some learned with how things have gone recently about what is prioritized and the limitations of silicon going forward.

I get being optimistic, but a lot of these things should be common sense to be off the table

I bet people will go off on how bad the specs are when they are ultimately revealed.

We aren't getting these gigantic leaps forward like we used to. I think it'll still be an upgrade.

Lurker · Nov 21, 2017

SharpX68K said:
I totally agree.

And something like 8-9 TFlops / 16GB RAM just ain't gonna cut it. They'd be setting themselves up to get leap frogged, not by a Microsoft mid-gen console like X1X, but Microsoft's new base hardware.

Sony shouldn't release PS5 in 2019 only to need PS5 Pro in 2022 because Microsoft released another monster in 2020 or 2021.

Sony should make the absolute best hardware they can for release in late 2020 for $400 even if they have to take a small or modest loss on hardware (though nothing to the extent of PS3) for the first 6 months or so.

lol at "they should take a loss".

Sony is going to sell for a profit. Also, first 6 months? Hardware prices don't decrease in the first 6 months.

An 8-9 TFlops will do what, exactly?

The Xbox One X which touts itself as a native 4K console isn't doing so hot compared to the Switch which is TFs behind.

Let's face it. Hardware advances have far outpaced software technologies. Not everyone has upgraded to 4K anyway.
PS4 is still selling gangbusters, with God Of War, The Last Of Us Part II and Spider-man yet to come out.

9 TFlops is plenty enough. People lambasted PS4's "Laptop cpu" yet did that stop the PS4 from selling 67 million units in 4 years?

Also, MS will be stupid to release a console a year after the PS5. It doesn't matter if it's going to be more powerful. If they let PS5 be the only $399 console for a full calendar year, that's asking for trouble.

PS4 sold 18 million in its first year, and that's with Xbox One releasing the same time. Imagine if PS5 had a year on its own.

Inuhanyou · Nov 21, 2017

Trago said:
I bet people will go off on how bad the specs are when they are ultimately revealed.

We aren't getting these gigantic leaps forward like we used to. I think it'll still be an upgrade.

People are also using Pro and XB1X as jumping pads, which set their expectations up for failure in the first place. but Sony and MS def are not for their next machines. In addition to talking in a "console war" fashion, as if console competitors don't leapfrog each other all the time. MS just did it with the X! That's what happens, there's no way to avoid it

Trago · Nov 21, 2017

Inuhanyou said:
People are also using Pro and XB1X as jumping pads, which set their expectations up for failure in the first place. but Sony and MS def are not for their next machines. In addition to talking in a "console war" fashion, as if console competitors don't leapfrog each other all the time. MS just did it with the X! That's what happens, there's no way to avoid it

You're right, but that's kinda their own fault. New hardware will be compared to the mid gen consoles no matter what.

Olaf · Nov 21, 2017

Horizon 2 launch title a possibility?

Inuhanyou · Nov 21, 2017

Trago said:
You're right, but that's kinda their own fault. New hardware will be compared to the mid gen consoles no matter what.

I mean i dont see why, they are completely different machines in purpose, Cerny took great pains to say so himself.

But i guess that's just a natural downside of the iterative machine existing in the first place. I still say Pro should not have been a 'thing.' Maybe next gen they could have done it.

Lurker · Nov 21, 2017

Trago said:
You're right, but that's kinda their own fault. New hardware will be compared to the mid gen consoles no matter what.

Not really, since the base game is built for the PS4 and not the Pro.

PS5, even with a modest hardware upgrade from the Pro, will have games looking better than Pro's.

gundamkyoukai · Nov 21, 2017

The hardware will be a good and i think people letting the mid gen consoles confuse them .
Now only in terms of the leap but also in terms of how software going to look .
If we get a 7x jump from PS4 it will be 11 TF at 8 it will be 12.8 plus a better CPU and 2 times the amount of ram ( maybe 3 if we lucky)
Games made for system around that power going to be fucking crazy just look at what some devs and Sony 1st party doing with normal PS4.

Trago · Nov 21, 2017

Lurker said:
Not really, since the base game is built for the PS4 and not the Pro.

PS5, even with a modest hardware upgrade from the Pro, will have games looking better than Pro's.

Obviously, but that still wont stop people from complaining about the hardware upgrade not being enough.

Lurker · Nov 21, 2017

Trago said:
Obviously, but that still wont stop people from complaining about the hardware upgrade not being enough.

They won't even know what they're talking about. Same thing happened with PS4, PS3, etc.

Remember when everyone gave PS3 a lot of grief for not running Oblivion as good as 360? Then we get something like God Of War Ascension or Beyond Two Souls few years later on the same hardware.

PS5 will be fine in that department. Only during the first two years will graphics peeps seem to talk the technical jargon but after that, no one will really care enough.

Inuhanyou · Nov 21, 2017

gundamkyoukai said:
The hardware will be a good and i think people letting the mid gen consoles confuse them .
Now only in terms of the leap but also in terms of how software going to look .
If we get a 7x jump from PS4 it will be 11 TF at 8 it will be 12.8 plus a better CPU and 2 times the amount of ram ( maybe 3 if we lucky)
Games made for system around that power going to be fucking crazy just look at what some devs and Sony 1st party doing with normal PS4.

All the games running on pro right now generally look the same on base hardware which speaks to how the base hardware is doing fine on that front. Spiderman and TLOU2 and GOW and other demanding titles will continue to impress on both hardwares irrespective of resolution and subtle improvements

Sarah The Great · Nov 21, 2017

Whatever it is, if it isn't backwards compatible I won't be buying it.

Venom · Nov 21, 2017

I've said it for the last couple of years and recent financial reports by Sony have solidified by beliefs.

Sony's aim is to make money on digital services and subscriptions, rather than have hardware profitable straight away. Their recent earnings and financial reports spoke of Sony wanting to further their digital and network services in the future in order to retain customers (who will move from PS4 to PS5) because that's what's making them money and it'll be their focus in the future.

I can see them subsidising the new console a little. Not too much and nothing like the PS3 but I can see them doing it if they launch in 2019 in order to negotiate with AMD for something with a little extra power.

Kyoufu · Nov 21, 2017

Olaf said:
Horizon 2 launch title a possibility?

I don't see why not.

score01 · Nov 21, 2017

Sarah The Great said:
Whatever it is, if it isn't backwards compatible I won't be buying it.

It has to have BC. There is no way they would want a fresh reset - they will want to keep their PS4 user base locked in.

SharpX68K · Nov 21, 2017

Backwards compatibility is definitely a must.

Although by no means should it be that PS5 game discs can be played on PS4/PS4 Pro at lower settings, or anything of the sort.

PS5 should be PS5 and PS4 is PS4. It should be like PS1 going to PS2 where PS2 had native compatibility with just about every PS1 game (iirc there were a handful of exceptions out of thousands).

The PS2's I/O processor was a PS1 CPU including everything that was integrated into PS1's CPU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_2_technical_specifications

I/O processor

Input Output Processor (IOP)
I/O Memory: 2 MB EDO DRAM
CPU Core: Original PlayStation CPU (MIPS R3000A clocked at 33.8688 MHz or 37.5 MHz+PS1 GTE and MDEC for backwards compatibility with PS1 games)
Automatically underclocked to 33.8688 MHz to achieve hardware backwards compatibility with original PlayStation format games.
Sub Bus: 32-bit
Connection to: SPU and CD/DVD controller.

Intersect · Nov 22, 2017

skyappl said:
I'm thinking it'll come out when Sony can make a 16 TF or greater console and sell it for $500 or less. There needs to be a significant and obvious jump in visual quality (along with AI and other gameplay improvements enabled by a much more powerful CPU) in order to justify it. Starting a new generation is an extremely expensive endeavor and if customers don't immediately understand why they should upgrade, it's going to be rough for Sony financially.

Going back to the technical specs, considering Microsoft just released a 6 TF console for $500 a couple weeks ago, I don't see it being possible to release something almost three times more powerful for the same price within the next two years. I would put the release of the PS5 therefore around 2020 or 2021.

Sony will be releasing two UHD Media PS4s holiday 2018 because the price of the more powerful is going to be above $500. The price for the entry level 4-6TF console is going to be about $299 with the current PS4 selling for $199 and Xbox1 for $189.00.

Current PS4 Holiday 2016 console prices (14nm)
PS4 Slim (1.8 TF) $199 Some UHD Game support (HDR) No UHD Media support
PS4 Pro (4TF) $399 UHD game support (Unscaled and HDR) No UHD Media support

Current Holiday 2017 Xbox1 prices (14nm)
Xbox1(1.2 F) $189 UHD Media support
Xbox1X (6TF) $499 UHD Media support UHD game support some requiring upscaling

Holiday 2018 prices estimate (12nm - 7nm)
UHD Media PS4 (guess 4-6 TF) $299 UHD game support (Unscaled and HDR)
UHD Game & Media PS4 (10-12 TF) $500+ Claims full UHD Gaming

Note: Performance for the two PS4s is calculated given the Tier 4 Media Power cap published by Sony which depends on node size (12nm or 7nm). Sony will NOT produce any older consoles after Holiday 2018 as they want to support UHD Media (security features in Infinity Fabric) and the older consoles can not support the DRM level needed.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Nov 22, 2017

Intersect said:
Sony will be releasing two UHD Media PS4s holiday 2018 because the price of the more powerful is going to be above $500. The price for the entry level 4-6TF console is going to be about $299 with the current PS4 selling for $199 and Xbox1 for $189.00.

Current PS4 Holiday 2016 console prices (14nm)
PS4 Slim (1.8 TF) $199 Some UHD Game support (HDR) No UHD Media support
PS4 Pro (4TF) $399 UHD game support (Unscaled and HDR) No UHD Media support

Current Holiday 2017 Xbox1 prices (14nm)
Xbox1(1.2 F) $189 UHD Media support
Xbox1X (6TF) $499 UHD Media support UHD game support some requiring upscaling

Holiday 2018 prices estimate (12nm - 7nm)
UHD Media PS4 (guess 4-6 TF) $299 UHD game support (Unscaled and HDR)
UHD Game & Media PS4 (10-12 TF) $500+ Claims full UHD Gaming

Note: Performance for the two PS4s is calculated given the Tier 4 Media Power cap published by Sony which depends on node size (12nm or 7nm). Sony will NOT produce any older consoles after Holiday 2018 as they want to support UHD Media (security features in Infinity Fabric) and the older consoles can not support the DRM level needed.

Why do you post so matter-of-factly, when in fact all of what you're posting is just unsubstantiated speculation?

You're using broadly ambiguous power numbers in a GCVA Steering Committee document to extrapolate Sony's future console strategy from it.

It's very... Jeff Rigby...

Edit:
Having gone through the document in detail, I think you're thoroughly confused by what the numbers in the tables in the presentation even mean, as well as what is meant by "HD media", "Ultra HD Media" and "High Perf. UHD Media" consoles. You might want to read the beginning slides more carefully as they define these terms, and the numbers in the tables are actually "power caps" with the dates given being the years these caps were effective from.

From what I can see the doc. covers PS3 (HD Media console), PS4 (UHD Media console) and PS4 Pro (HP UHD console). It doesn't actually suggest anything at all about future PS4 revisions or a PS5.

Expy · Nov 22, 2017

Miniature Kaiju said:
They'll release two boxes simultaneously: PS5 and PS5².

Doubt it. It'll make it doubly tough to make up the cost of R&D of two boxes.

They'll have one well-rounded powerful next-gen machine.

dgrdsv · Nov 22, 2017

Intersect said:
Sony will be releasing two UHD Media PS4s holiday 2018

There's nothing in this link which says that.

Intersect · Nov 22, 2017

dgrdsv said:
There's nothing in this link which says that.

Logical inference:

1) All media power caps from Tier 1 through Tier 4 are applicable to Sony consoles not Microsoft or Nintendo because the XB1 uses an ARM block for media while the PS4s use the GPU for codecs.

2009 Sony argued to the EU power board against the proposed media power limits claiming that the EU proposals would require an Apple like SoC (ARM block which XB1 implemented) which would add $60 to the cost of the console. The EU compromised and this is the reason for the Efficientgaming.eu web site where Sony publishes the Media and Navigation Power caps and defends the power used.

2) Since the GPU is the largest most power hungry part of the console, it determines the max power used in PS4 consoles both for media and Navigation mode.
3) The dates on Tier 1-4 start Jan 1 of the next year the console is released. EX: 2013 Holiday PS4 is a Tier 1 Jan 2014 console and Jan 1, 2019 is a Tier 4 Holiday 2018 console.
4) Nintendo Switch and XB1 X were just released. PS4 is due for a new console and both 12nm and 7nm will be available for Holiday 2018.
5) The paper outlines NEW definitions for UHD Media consoles but the XB1s have been UHD Media capable for several years. I.E the presentation was written by Sony as Sony consoles have not had UHD media support, the Two UHD Media consoles are a first for Sony..

Intersect · Nov 22, 2017

TheThreadsThatBindUs said:
Why do you post so matter-of-factly, when in fact all of what you're posting is just unsubstantiated speculation?

You're using broadly ambiguous power numbers in a GCVA Steering Committee document to extrapolate Sony's future console strategy from it.

It's very... Jeff Rigby...

Edit:
Having gone through the document in detail, I think you're thoroughly confused by what the numbers in the tables in the presentation even mean, as well as what is meant by "HD media", "Ultra HD Media" and "High Perf. UHD Media" consoles. You might want to read the beginning slides more carefully as they define these terms, and the numbers in the tables are actually "power caps" with the dates given being the years these caps were effective from.

From what I can see the doc. covers PS3 (HD Media console), PS4 (UHD Media console) and PS4 Pro (HP UHD console). It doesn't actually suggest anything at all about future PS4 revisions or a PS5.

It's essentially a Sony paper.

Tier 4 limits  Kieren Mayers (Sony) explained again that the power consumption cannot be reduced further for current console models as all feasible and available energy efficiency technologies have been already implemented. Industry cannot commit to lower power caps for UHD gaming capable consoles as in worst cases it is possible that some samples may consume up to 110W.

Kieren Mayers (Sony) then moved to slide 17 and pointed out that even if the average results exceeded expectations, power caps were sufficiently ambitious, as they always have to allow for the necessary variations in different models and different stages of the technological development. He also explained that by measuring statistical variation in five samples, in the peak case, some consoles may still be close to power caps. Cesar Santos (EC) asked whether processors of the consoles are the same and Kieren Mayers (Sony) explained that this is the case for each type of consoles e.g. all PlayStation®4 models use the same processors, and all PlayStation®4 PRO models use the same processors.

Tim Calland (Microsoft) then presented the 2017 power caps for navigation mode, which are reduced by 20W both for HD and UHD consoles (slide 18). The media playback cap of HD consoles will be reduced by 20W in 2017 and for UHD consoles by 20W in 2019 (slide 19). Tim Calland (Microsoft) also explained that the SRI includes power management requirements – 4h or less for media modes; 1h or less for gaming or other modes (slide 20). Cesar Santos (EC) asked Signatories to comment on the instant on mode, which was one of the comments made by the NGOs. Signatories explained that users have the option to modify the power settings (similar to what is available on a PC) when they do not want the console to go to sleep.

SharpX68K · Nov 22, 2017

The kind of visuals I would expect developers to get out of the box on nextgen console devkits, from the start, even before the consoles hit retail would be on the level of the in-engine trailer for Star Citizen's Squadron 42, at 60fps

Although that video is 4K, the resolution isn't the main point. It's the amount of detail, lighting and framerate that matters IMO.

Now this SC 3.0 graphics trailer wasn't uploaded at 60fps, but even so, I expect this level of graphical fidelity from PS5 and NextBox.

And while Star Citizen's persistent universe will likely remain PC-only, I think Squadron 42 should be a launch game on nextgen consoles.

We're supposed to get a tease of the game at the end of the year from what I remember.

But regardless of SC / S42, I can't wait to see what CryEngine, Frostbite, Unreal Engine, iD Tech XX, etc will be able to accomplish on consoles that have Zen-family CPUs, and GPUs that are above 10 TFlops.

msia2k75 · Nov 23, 2017

I don't know much about Star Citizen but these videos are just cinematics... what about the in-game?

FlintSpace · Nov 23, 2017

I just do not see Sony releasing 2 consoles. Things will be much boring and much more predictable than we are hyping them up to be.
It will be just 1 Console - in 2020 at that comfortable 399$ Price point. That's it.

Sony is in no hurry to release a new console, nor are they looking to release anything in response to Switch's success, so 2019 is very unlikely. And about 2 consoles, are we forgetting Sony will push PSVR2 in 2020 also. Just don't see releasing 3 Units at the same time. And PS5 will be backward compatible to PS4.

msia2k75 said:
I don't know much about Star Citizen but these videos are just cinematics... what about the in-game?

Given is In-game;

Shin · Nov 23, 2017

Shubh_C63 said:
I just do not see Sony releasing 2 consoles.
It will be just 1 Console - in 2020

There's analist Damian Thong that said they'd release PS5 next year. Iirc he was right about pro, so knows.

I rather not see a half baked console...

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Nov 23, 2017

Intersect said:
Logical inference:

1) All media power caps from Tier 1 through Tier 4 are applicable to Sony consoles not Microsoft or Nintendo because the XB1 uses an ARM block for media while the PS4s use the GPU for codecs.

2009 Sony argued to the EU power board against the proposed media power limits claiming that the EU proposals would require an Apple like SoC (ARM block which XB1 implemented) which would add $60 to the cost of the console. The EU compromised and this is the reason for the Efficientgaming.eu web site where Sony publishes the Media and Navigation Power caps and defends the power used.

2) Since the GPU is the largest most power hungry part of the console, it determines the max power used in PS4 consoles both for media and Navigation mode.
3) The dates on Tier 1-4 start Jan 1 of the next year the console is released. EX: 2013 Holiday PS4 is a Tier 1 Jan 2014 console and Jan 1, 2019 is a Tier 4 Holiday 2018 console.
4) Nintendo Switch and XB1 X were just released. PS4 is due for a new console and both 12nm and 7nm will be available for Holiday 2018.
5) The paper outlines NEW definitions for UHD Media consoles but the XB1s have been UHD Media capable for several years. I.E the presentation was written by Sony as Sony consoles have not had UHD media support, the Two UHD Media consoles are a first for Sony..

See slide 17:

The presentation is clearly classifying PS4 and PS4 Pro as the "UHD consoles". Meaning it's likely calling PS3 a "HD" console.

So, you're assumption that this relates to an unreleased PS4 revision (or multiple) simply isn't at all correct.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Nov 23, 2017

Intersect said:
It's essentially a Sony paper.

Tier 4 limits  Kieren Mayers (Sony) explained again that the power consumption cannot be reduced further for current console models as all feasible and available energy efficiency technologies have been already implemented. Industry cannot commit to lower power caps for UHD gaming capable consoles as in worst cases it is possible that some samples may consume up to 110W.

Kieren Mayers (Sony) then moved to slide 17 and pointed out that even if the average results exceeded expectations, power caps were sufficiently ambitious, as they always have to allow for the necessary variations in different models and different stages of the technological development. He also explained that by measuring statistical variation in five samples, in the peak case, some consoles may still be close to power caps. Cesar Santos (EC) asked whether processors of the consoles are the same and Kieren Mayers (Sony) explained that this is the case for each type of consoles e.g. all PlayStation®4 models use the same processors, and all PlayStation®4 PRO models use the same processors.

Tim Calland (Microsoft) then presented the 2017 power caps for navigation mode, which are reduced by 20W both for HD and UHD consoles (slide 18). The media playback cap of HD consoles will be reduced by 20W in 2017 and for UHD consoles by 20W in 2019 (slide 19). Tim Calland (Microsoft) also explained that the SRI includes power management requirements – 4h or less for media modes; 1h or less for gaming or other modes (slide 20). Cesar Santos (EC) asked Signatories to comment on the instant on mode, which was one of the comments made by the NGOs. Signatories explained that users have the option to modify the power settings (similar to what is available on a PC) when they do not want the console to go to sleep.

I'm not really sure what all this has to do with the questions I asked you.

None of this is relevant to the fact that your basing your assumptions about new PS4 revisions in 2018 and beyond on a misunderstanding of two labels (i.e. UHD and HD) Sony is using in a presentation related to power consumption figures for their existing consoles.

Again, nothing in the presentation at all intimates towards any reference to future PS4 revisions. I think you're getting too hung up on the "UHD" label.

PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification

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