PS4 is selling like hot cakes at this point. Sony should wring every last drop out of it, before announcing a PS5.
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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - timing and specification
- Thread starter zomgbbqftw
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I assume MilesQ is OnQ123. So intersect should be Jeff Rigby. Just a guess from the recent comments those members made.
PlayStation Meeting 2020 in February:
- PS5 reveal: specs, design, UI, DualShock 5
- Games
. Cross Gen/Ports:
- Final Fantasy VII Remake by Square Enix announced for PS5 (extensive gameplay demo is shown, PS4/PS5 cross gen)
- Death Stranding by Kojima Productions announced for PS5 (native 4K/60fps gameplay is shown, PS4/PS5 cross gen)
- The Last of Us Part II by Naughty Dog announced for PS5 (alongside first footage of its standalone DLC ala Left Behind, but bigger in ambition - think Uncharted The Lost Legacy - which will be included in the PS5 version)
. Next gen only:
- Gran Turismo 7 by Polyphony Digital announced (back to SP focus, gameplay footage is shown as a tech demonstration of the console's capabilities)
- Ratchet and Clank 2 by Insomniac Games (full fledget AAA sequel for 2016's Ratchet and Clank, it will look just like the CG movie from last year but in-game bitches!)
- Warner's Harry Potter Open World RPG shows up (first glimpse at gameplay is shown running on PS5)
- Destiny 3 by Bungie is announced (native 4k/60fps extensive demo is shown running on PS5)
- Bloodborne 2 by From Software announced (gameplay trailer is shown breaking ResetEra forever)
- Horizon 2 by Guerrila Games announced (gameplay demo is shown as the ultimate next gen graphics showcase, this will be the game that will make people think "Holy shit next gen is real!")
And then...
E3 2020, Sony Press Conference:
- PS5 launching at $499 (they will only go this route because NextBox will be $499 too) in September 2020
. In regards to the already announced games of PlayStation Meeting:
- Destiny 3 (coming at launch)
- Ratchet and Clank 2 (coming at launch)
- The Last of Us Part II (coming at launch - both the DLC for PS4 and complete edition aka base game + DLC for PS5)
- Death Stranding (coming at launch)
- Final Fantasy VII Remake (coming in november, which will be the japanese PS5 launch)
- Horizon 2 (coming early 2021)
- Bloodborne 2 (coming 2021)
- Harry Potter RPG (coming 2021)
- Gran Turismo 7 (coming 2021)
+ the usual suspects for the holiday period or launch (Assassins Creed, COD, FIFA, NBA, Madden, etc)
. New announcements:
- Japan Studio Toriyama's new IP announced (action adventure open world, coming 2021)
- Dark Cloud 3 by Level-5 is announced (Japan Studio collaboration)
- New God of War teaser
- PS5 reveal: specs, design, UI, DualShock 5
- Games
. Cross Gen/Ports:
- Final Fantasy VII Remake by Square Enix announced for PS5 (extensive gameplay demo is shown, PS4/PS5 cross gen)
- Death Stranding by Kojima Productions announced for PS5 (native 4K/60fps gameplay is shown, PS4/PS5 cross gen)
- The Last of Us Part II by Naughty Dog announced for PS5 (alongside first footage of its standalone DLC ala Left Behind, but bigger in ambition - think Uncharted The Lost Legacy - which will be included in the PS5 version)
. Next gen only:
- Gran Turismo 7 by Polyphony Digital announced (back to SP focus, gameplay footage is shown as a tech demonstration of the console's capabilities)
- Ratchet and Clank 2 by Insomniac Games (full fledget AAA sequel for 2016's Ratchet and Clank, it will look just like the CG movie from last year but in-game bitches!)
- Warner's Harry Potter Open World RPG shows up (first glimpse at gameplay is shown running on PS5)
- Destiny 3 by Bungie is announced (native 4k/60fps extensive demo is shown running on PS5)
- Bloodborne 2 by From Software announced (gameplay trailer is shown breaking ResetEra forever)
- Horizon 2 by Guerrila Games announced (gameplay demo is shown as the ultimate next gen graphics showcase, this will be the game that will make people think "Holy shit next gen is real!")
And then...
E3 2020, Sony Press Conference:
- PS5 launching at $499 (they will only go this route because NextBox will be $499 too) in September 2020
. In regards to the already announced games of PlayStation Meeting:
- Destiny 3 (coming at launch)
- Ratchet and Clank 2 (coming at launch)
- The Last of Us Part II (coming at launch - both the DLC for PS4 and complete edition aka base game + DLC for PS5)
- Death Stranding (coming at launch)
- Final Fantasy VII Remake (coming in november, which will be the japanese PS5 launch)
- Horizon 2 (coming early 2021)
- Bloodborne 2 (coming 2021)
- Harry Potter RPG (coming 2021)
- Gran Turismo 7 (coming 2021)
+ the usual suspects for the holiday period or launch (Assassins Creed, COD, FIFA, NBA, Madden, etc)
. New announcements:
- Japan Studio Toriyama's new IP announced (action adventure open world, coming 2021)
- Dark Cloud 3 by Level-5 is announced (Japan Studio collaboration)
- New God of War teaser
it would be so sad if literally every new game was either a sequel or a game based off of a movie.
I think in Sony's case, most of their studios' first game will be a sequel.
Santa Monica? They are starting things over with God of War, it is basically a reboot, they are definitely going for a sequel after it considering it will still be fresh.
Guerrila Games? Horizon just released and they want it to be a franchise. Horizon 2 is surely coming next.
Polyphony Digital? Well duh, Gran Turismo 7.
Sucker Punch? Working on Ghost of Tsushima. I cant see them going straight to a new IP after a new IP. It is going to be either Ghost of Tsushima 2 (if the first one becomes a sucess) or inFAMOUS 3 (if GoT is not sucessfull enough).
BEND? Same thing as Sucker Punch, except they dont have an already established series to go back to, which means that if Days Gone doesnt go well, they will probably try something new or reboot Syphon Filter maybe. But I honestly cant see Days Gone not doing well. I mean, it is an open world AAA zombie game. It is going to be a hit.
Naughty Dog will definitely going to do a new IP next though. It will be very exciting.
Internally, Japan Studio will have Toriyama's new IP. They always work on great new IPs in collaboration with other studios, so we should expect that from them.
Then Media Molecule. I believe they would go new IP for their next project simply because I cant really see a sequel for Dreams. If they want to improve the creative tools I believe simple add ons will be enough, idk. They definitely could go back to LBP though. I think LBP4 by them would be very exciting. Would rather have new IP though.
I've no idea if he honoured it, no. If memory serves, the particulars were:
- If both the PS4 and X1 receive a firmware update enabling UHD BD support by January 1st, I donate AUD$100 to Child's Play
- If either the PS4 or X1 receive a firmware update enabling UHD BD support by January 1st, it's a tie
- If neither the PS4 nor X1 receive a firmware update enabling UHD BD support by January 1st, he donates AUD$100 to Child's Play
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I never said it would be cheaper. I didn't mention cost.
My point was that in a given silicon budget, e.g 350mm² of APU, having ED/SRAM on die means less space for the GPU/CPU.
This is only the case when you're "reticle" limited i.e. the production process itself doesn't allow to make the base die bigger and thus you can make it faster by going with multiple chips instead (like GV100 for example which is both a record sized GPU die which is fit onto _two_ interposer dies with each nesting _two_ "packs" of HBM2 each consisting of _four_ DRAM dies; so it's really a system made of 19 separate dies). For a console sized GPU though opting for HBM instead of EDRAM in the same size likely won't provide many benefits as the yields advantage of having several smaller chips instead of a one big APU with EDRAM on it will likely be eaten up by the costs of the interposer (which is also a chip) and the packaging process.
Not necessarily. I don't imagine either Sony nor MS will want to go any bigger than 350 mm² for their main console APU dies in order to maximize yields; obviously the larger the die size, the less dies per wafer are available.
350mm² has been the largest die console manufacturers have traditionally targeted and so I think it reasonable to assume they won't go much bigger than this going forward with next-gen.
Is it even possible to have EDRAM of the same size (I assume you mean capacity) as a HBM stack?
If you mean EDRAM of the same physical area, then I don't understand your claim of HBM providing no benefits? Of course it would provide tangible benefits as you'd be able to access an order of magnitude more memory at the same or similar bw. Sure it would be more expensive and that's exactly the basis of the cost vs. benefit equation that Sony/MS would have to evaluate.
On the other hand, going EDRAM on a daughter die or going with on-die ESRAM wouldn't be the only memory solution employed in isolation. You'd still need a pool of "cheap" main RAM (e.g. DDR4 or LPDDR4), which would imply its own cost and complexity in board design and the design of the memory controller.
So the equation would be more like:
Cost of APU + HBM + Interposer vs. APU(+SRAM) or APU + EDRAM(daughter die) + Interposer + DDR4/LPDDR4
If Samsung comes through on its promise of Low Power HBM with less TSVs as well as allowing for the use of a cheaper organic interposer, then the HBM option will most likely look more appealing.
(Of course this is ignoring the fact that GDDR5x/6 would likely be the cheapest option)
hothardware has a Ryzen Mobile (raven ridge) benchmark & performance analysis online.
I still think that Sony might just slap two Ryzen Mobile's together and crank up the specs (higher clock, way more CUs) and add some newer Zen2 / Navi features; it would be make for an affordable option. They did pretty much the same with the Jaguars.
https://hothardware.com/reviews/ryzen-mobile-benchmarks-and-performance-analysis?page=1
I still think that Sony might just slap two Ryzen Mobile's together and crank up the specs (higher clock, way more CUs) and add some newer Zen2 / Navi features; it would be make for an affordable option. They did pretty much the same with the Jaguars.
https://hothardware.com/reviews/ryzen-mobile-benchmarks-and-performance-analysis?page=1
The PS2 continued to sell a boatload well into 2008. The PS5 won't cannibalise the PS4, it will sell to different consumers.
PS5 is too far off if they ain't launching next year for such a setup, in that case they won't need to ducktape stuff together :P
Even if it did cannibalize, it's not a bad thing; it's always better you're the one to make these sales, rather than your competitors. That's doubly true now that such a large part of the revenue comes from the ecosystem - keeping your customers within that ecosystem is paramount.
By the way, I was being facetious with the PS5² thing :D doubt they'll release 2 SKUs simultaneously, was just playing on the whole 25th anniversary thing.
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This here, is the key.
PS5 will undoubtedly cannibalize a portion of PS4 hardware sales, but that is irrelevant since the money stream stems mostly from software sales.
And since PS5 will be PS4 backward compatible, that means more potential sales of PS4 software.
if they want to launch in 2020 and have a custom APU; hardwarespecs will need to be finalised soon. There is nothing wrong with using Raven Ridge as a starting point; it worked out fine with Jaguar. Plus side is that the cpu's are much better compared to previous gen.
That's 2+ years away, they aren't going to decide on those key components this early IMO.
It wouldn't make sense either, you're still going to have a Ryzen refresh, then Zen2 then Zen 2 refresh before the thing is out (and if lucky Zen 3).
And also remember that retail release != actual hardware is ready as far as these APUs are concerned. AMD and its partners work on customizing their chips way ahead of time.
Raven Ridge is out of the question. It's the first gen Zen APU with Vega graphics. Will be completely outdated, even for PS5's development cycle.
Gray Hawk (7nm, 2019) is more like the starting point in terms of architectures. Zen 2 CPU + Navi graphics.
Gray Hawk (7nm, 2019) is more like the starting point in terms of architectures. Zen 2 CPU + Navi graphics.
Manufacturing started around June 2013 I believe as there were reports about TSMC ramping it up (kinda drunk ATM I don't remember the details).
Everything and anything is possible, I'm just saying that IMO with so many movement on the CPU side of things I don't see them settling for Ryzen (1).
Sure it's great if we're coming off Jaguar but who's to say we won't feel the same after Zen2/3 hits, given that it's the same line of CPU and architecture I don't see why they'd settle for Zen 1 ATM.
GPU is a different story, VEGA ain't the way to go, it's not great nor efficient IMHO.
Considering ms is most likely not going to release a new console in 2019, I am positive Sony will release ps5 in 2019 with a 499 tag if necessary and then drop it around ms next box launch. Ms is going to try hard to not give up the power advantage so there is no point trying to compete in that space with them.
That's why I think they want to launch by November 2019 and target a $400 price point although they're obviously rather dependent on AMD. Retention is so important now. I think 6 year generations is probably the sweet spot for all involved.
Why? Most logical thing to assume is that they'll continue on the path that they started with PS4. If they stay with AMD and use a custom APU like they did with Jaguar/Radeon, it will be based on current mobile technology (like Raven Ridge) but will be enriched with newer features where possible and things will get cranked up because of the higher TDP.
- Raven Ridge is a 2018 platform (in general).
- First devkits for PS4 arrived late 2011/early 2012. If the PS5 launches in 2020; it's fair to assume that devkits will be shipped in 2018/early 2019.
- If they want to use Zen 2 they'll need to go down to 7nm, which production isnt planned for late 2018 (early 2019 makes more sense).
- If they use a custom APU it will probably need to be taped out in 2019 to make it to production in 2020.
A 7nm AMD Custom APU (8 core Zen or maybe Zen 2), and a whole bunch of Vega/Navi CUs, < $450. Sounds sensible to me.
If I'm not mistaken, doesn't AMD's roadmap have Zen2 for 2019? That would mean custom chips for clients would already be available.
Vega/Navi CU's? features from the next architecture doesn't imply the core itself but the improvements rather and those can be anything.
This is what makes speculation so up in the air.
How many years in advance do the main specs have to be finalized?
Targeting a 400 price point.
It seems like the AMD chips released recently in some way will be the ones used for the future.
Even if PS5 is released November 2019, the Raven Ridge APU should not be anything to go by, just as AMD's first high performance APU in 2011 (Llano which used STARS CPU and their old graphics arch, before GCN) was not a good indication of what PS4 would be like. Even the Bobcat & Jaguar APUs didn't indicate PS4's performance.
At the time in 2013, PS4 used the biggest APU AMD had made in terms of logic. Xbox One APU had more transistors because of the SRAM, but a smaller GPU.
The Gray Hawk APU is the one to watch PS5's CPU/GPU architecture should be very similar, although core counts, compute units and clock speeds will almost certainly be different (more & higher).
Agree completely. Ecosystem lock-in is probably the single most important aspect of this generation transition, so I can see Sony going not only for BC, but also supporting legacy controllers (we'll probably see a refreshed DualShock, but I believe the PS5 will support the DS4) and the current PSVR.
Old roadmap not much movement though according to Lisa Su they got a lot of people working Zen in tandem so Zen 2/3 IIRC so it should be on track as per Zen 1.
You guys might be right, Zen roadmap has shifted quite a lot it was supposed to debut sometime next year with the refresh earlier in the year.
As far as I know this is either for Apple or HP: https://www.barrons.com/articles/am...nother-semi-custom-project-in-2018-1501022700
Slightly less enthusiastic if it turns out to be Zen 1 + Vega.
Zen 2: https://hothardware.com/news/leaked-amd-roadmap-zen-2-matisse-12nm-finfet-cpu-2019
My man, i appreciate the thought you put into this.
Let all your hopes and dreams come true!
It's the same one I've been looking at since the beginning of the year, along with "next-gen memory" for the GPU after Navi.
But 'nextgen memory' starts with Navi. Shouldn't be confused with the Next Gen GPU on 7nm+ for 2020 and beyond.
If retail Zen2 is 2019, we can be sure that Zen2 would definitely be ready as custom APU for clients like Sony and MS.
yeah, that's why I'm not mentioning anything regarding performance because thats up in the air. But (a souped up) Raven Ridge looks like a plausible 'foundation' for a possible PS5 regarding architecture.
That's the shitty part, things were on track and going smoothly then I read that and am like WTF.
AMD is a mess, then again if you weren't relying on X and Z part I guess it doesn't matter (it's not how you plan the launch of a console anyways).
Without panicking and all that I'll just say that I'm not excited or looking forward to a Zen/Vega PS5, that's just me.
Exactly, all we can confirm are parts of Infinity fabric out of Vega or Navi that allow UHD Media Blu-ray DRM = Playready 3 SL3000 support.
Everyone I've read makes the assumption that Sony will support UHD Blu-ray with their next console. They have a UHD BDA license for Embedded which covers stand alone Blu-ray players and Game consoles as well as a UHD BDA license for PC software and Drive. Only an embedded stand alone UHD Blu-ray player has been released. What is Sony waiting on for PCs and Game Consoles?
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If they approach PS5 from that angle I think they'll be onto a winner.
Mark Cerny and Phil Spencer disagree with you.
Lisa Su said there is "one additional design that will ramp in the second half of 2018," and said AMD will wait until the customer is ready to discuss that project. I asked what industry it might be in, and Su replied "let's just call it embedded." The article is from June 2017 and it's already been released that it's the AMD GPU that is embedded in an Intel APU. AMD To Develop Semi-Custom Graphics Chip For Intel
DARPA Chiplets program and the EXASCALE APU program are government programs and AMD has received 12.5 million from the former and an undisclosed amount from the second for products completed by 2021
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Since physical isn't going away so soon should it have a BD-XL 128GB drive or is there another physical format coming in the near future to replace it?
Best guess is the same disk format BD-XL defined in 2010 but with HDCP 2.2 encryption between drive and TEE over the USB or SATA bus. More than 4 layers is also possible with a firmware update for future 8K disks but drive speed will have to move up from 6X which now supports UHD +HDR and Depthmap for 3D (Depthmap requires 50% less space than the HD frame packed 3D which took 100% more space..
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Switch will be the only console in its own generation, as it is now, and Nintendo will develop stronger switch's in the future. Mind you, X and PS4Pro are still a generation behind Switch. And the cycle will continue, since iterative console development is now the new trend.
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