Requiring Nintendo Online, is something that is for sure happening. I dont see it any other way.
And IF Nintendo puts their games in Gamepass, then Microsoft for sure is gonna have to pay something. They surely already pay to every company that has a game in Gamepass.
Ohhhh I didn't understand that people thought Nintendo games are coming to gamepass. I don't think that's going to happen.
I think Microsoft simply wants as many platforms as possible to support Gamepass via XCloud. I don't think Nintendo games will go on Gamepass.
I think any games like Ori and Cuphead are either good faith gestures/experiments, two - just getting some Microsoft owned studio games on a platform that's no longer considered a rival, or some kind of deal to finally get GoldenEye HD on Xbox (and Nintendo to get Rare games on the N64 mini). Or a mixture of all three.
I genuinely think Microsoft see the Switch more on the iPhone department rather then a direct competitor, and the advantage of the Switch is that it's a non competitor that shares some of Xbox's audience, which means it's ripe for lots of collaboration.
Nintendo needs permanent subs to their online and XCloud with gamepass could be a way of both companies coming out on top. So I don't think MS are taking a big risk by throwing a few first party bones at Nintendo, and a Smash Character (free advertising). Even if the perceived reward of the GoldenEye rights seems very little return on Microsoft's end. Their long term goal of getting the audience that crosses over with Nintendo's is probably worth the effort regards collaboration.
I don't even think Microsoft even pushed to get Nintendo IPs on their Gamepass service. Since those who want Nintendo IPs and own an Xbox can now get both on the Switch.
I think the typical scenario in MS's mindset is:
- Xbox gamers play on their Xbox at home (and Nintendo games on the Switch)
- Xbox gamer meets up with a friend and join public WiFi or even goes round their house
- Both play Gears 4 at a Café or of at friend's house play online co-op, one on their Xbox, one on their Switch in handheld (kickstand mode)
Plus maybe with say GoldenEye HD, someone on the Switch plays with Xbox players. I don't think MS want Nintendo games on there when the Switch can act a safe portable Xbox without them spending money on hardware. Obviously I think XCloud games will require an Xbox controller.