Perish the thought that the DNC would want a Democrat to be the nominee.
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So if Biden steps down.....what do we do? Who takes his place?
- Thread starter TheGhost
- Start date
Perish the thought that the DNC would want a Democrat to be the nominee.
Since we are talking in the realm of shit that wont happen, lets just keep it greasy.
Won't be Bernie, wasn't accepted by enough. They also would have their pick of the establishment Dems.
So it would be Hillary Clinton in this fantasy world that has no chance of happening. Shes shown that shes more accepted by the voter base than Bernie, and is an establishment Dem through and through.
Won't be Bernie, wasn't accepted by enough. They also would have their pick of the establishment Dems.
So it would be Hillary Clinton in this fantasy world that has no chance of happening. Shes shown that shes more accepted by the voter base than Bernie, and is an establishment Dem through and through.
The problem isn't necessarily the active primary voters, but the general voting audience you're dealing with in a general election.
Primary voters might be engaged enough to "vote blue no matter who," but that's definitely not how the larger voting population operates.
In this scenario, it would be. Since none of the suspended campaigns reached the delegate threshold. So therefore the delegates would be released at the convention.
Ignoring the most likely scenario (that Biden won't step down) since this is a hypothetical topic, I think what happens in the event of Biden stepping down is highly dependent on when that might happen.
If it's before Biden picks a VP nominee, then I don't see a clear path for any one individual. It could be anyone. It'd be a mess.
If it's before the convention but after Biden has picked a running mate, then it's technically in the hands of the delegates but I think would almost certainly end up being Biden's choice of running mate. The delegates would probably listen to him - they're not officially obliged to, but it seems likely that they'd do so.
If it's after the convention and after there's an official nominee for both president and VP, then it's surely got to be the VP nominee instead. Nobody else could reasonably claim that they had the support of the convention and nobody could reasonably claim anything like a majority of support from voters.
You know that GIF of the truck not crashing?
Abramson is the human version of that GIF, except if it had 78 camera angles and was on repeat for four years.
If it's before Biden picks a VP nominee, then I don't see a clear path for any one individual. It could be anyone. It'd be a mess.
If it's before the convention but after Biden has picked a running mate, then it's technically in the hands of the delegates but I think would almost certainly end up being Biden's choice of running mate. The delegates would probably listen to him - they're not officially obliged to, but it seems likely that they'd do so.
If it's after the convention and after there's an official nominee for both president and VP, then it's surely got to be the VP nominee instead. Nobody else could reasonably claim that they had the support of the convention and nobody could reasonably claim anything like a majority of support from voters.
You know that GIF of the truck not crashing?
Abramson is the human version of that GIF, except if it had 78 camera angles and was on repeat for four years.
Someone who hasn't ran and already has positive attention. So, Cuomo. And Cuomo would win in a landslide even though he's shitty.
That being said, if you honestly think this has a reasonable chance of happening, I'm sorry. It's not.
That being said, if you honestly think this has a reasonable chance of happening, I'm sorry. It's not.
The fact that he only got 35% of the vote in a one on one would guarantee it's not Bernie. C'mon people.
1) The DNC has little to nothing to do with this.
2) At the convention (virtual or otherwise) delegates are "pledged" to their candidate for the first round of voting.
3) Delegates can be "freed" by the candidate to vote how they want, usually they vote for whoever their candidate endorsed, but are not required to.
4) In a second round vote all delegates are free to vote how they want and super delegates can vote.
5) So, some candidate would have to emerge that could get a majority of the delegates + supers in a second round. I would assume party elders would try and put forward a single candidate for everyone to consolidate around and try and put pressure on other candidates to stay away. Cuomo is a strong possibility. I would think Abrams would be a strong possibility as well.
6) Most establishment Dems would sit out to let the "consolidation" candidate to win the 2nd round vote. Bloomberg might try and jump back in. Warren might try and jump back in. Bernie might (probably would) jump back in.
I mean, what is the case for Bernie in reality? He came in 2nd, but outside of some Warren delegates, the liklihood he is any of these delegates 2nd choice is rather low.
Biden was a stand-in for "generic centrist Dem". The delegates pledged to him (and Pete, and Bloomberg, etc.) would almost certainly rally around some other stand-in for a centrist Dem.
I mean, I don't think there is a really "good" way Biden stepping down ends in.
Who cares what I want? It's what would happen. Certainly didn't want Biden to win, but that's what happened. We need less wishcasting and more actually looking.
If we're trying to let our morals be our guide, I'd prefer we didn't pick the nominee who endorsed a transphobe for public office, or made an ad touting the endorsement of a racist transphobe (an endorsement that was almost immediately revoked) or said he was a little busy running for president to deal with the sexual harassment in his own campaign in 2016, or attacked Planned Parenthood when they didn't endorse him, or gave cover to people who didn't vote for Obama because he's black, or voted to shield gun manufacturers from civil liability.
It's not going to happen, but if it did, I wouldn't be surprised if Bloomberg somehow got it. That's how much confidence I have America would avoid Bernie or Warren at all costs.
Just move on to another shitty man.
Just move on to another shitty man.
Anybody hoping for Biden stepping down so that Bernie could sneak in, would be in for a world of whiplash when Cuomo wins the nomination and is even more centrist (really Republican-lite) than Biden is.
None of this is going to happen though and Biden isn't stepping down.
Seriously. That is the state of play, Biden steps down it'll either be whoever he picks as VP or... Cuomo.
There isn't going to be a convention (at least not in the traditional sense).
Depends on who his delegates choose to support. I highly doubt Bernie would get much from Biden's delegates. My money would be on a random pick like Cuomo. Without an in-person convention it's effectively impossible to read the tea leaves at this point, absolutely anything could happen if it gets to that. No matter what happens it's guaranteed to be a huge mess which is at least half the reason the allegations haven't gained much traction.
And for better or worst, his "Me vs the Establishment" campaign basically ensures that they wouldn't back him if Biden were to pull out.
Right now it's slated for August.
But whatever form it takes, be it online or a bunch of people in a room, they'll still use that platform to vote for a replacement.
I mean he knows whether or not he did it. It's not just an unknown allegation to him. So either he should step down because he knows he did it or keep going on because he knows he didn't.
This.
If Biden steps down it's all over. Trump will win easily because there won't be time to get someone else, especially when you really can't do rallies or anything else to get awareness of the nominee or their policies out there.
He almost certainly won't. He just wants this too damn bad. I get that the OP was made with this as a presumption, so it's not fair to answer this way, but it's just not in the realm of possibility. I mean, it's more likely that Joe comes right out and says "Yes, I raped that woman, but we aren't our worst moments PLUS we must remove Trump!" and people vote for him anyway.
Biden stepping down isn't happening, it'd be far more sensible to talk about a scenario where say, the current pandemic kills Biden, rather than one where he steps down if you want discuss scenarios where we need a replacement
The only person with the name recognition and popularity to rally the party is Cuomo. That's who the delegates at the convention would pick if Biden refused the nom. That's not a good scenario from a policy standpoint if you're even remotely liberal.
Biden will sooner that Reade's allegations reelect Trump than step down. Which is a possible outcome. Once COVID-19 stops dominating the news cycle, the rape allegation and subsequent corroboration becomes a lot more juicy for CNN/MSNBC/NYT/WaPo to run with. "But her emails" squared. Trump's campaign runs with the horrific audio in round-the-clock attack ads. Kills turnout among women and younger voters, saving Trump from his own incompetence.
But in the remote hypothetical that Biden actually does step down over being exposed, the replacement has to be a woman. Warren as a unifier for the party would probably be the best possible outcome. Sanders if the party wanted their best chance to win. Klobuchar or Harris if they basically just throw their hands in the air and give up.
But in the remote hypothetical that Biden actually does step down over being exposed, the replacement has to be a woman. Warren as a unifier for the party would probably be the best possible outcome. Sanders if the party wanted their best chance to win. Klobuchar or Harris if they basically just throw their hands in the air and give up.
Russia conspiracy theories didn't work. Chinese conspiracy theories won't work either.
He almost certainly doesn't step down or get pushed aside. If he does, assuming he holds out long enough to pick a VP, it probably goes to them. If he somehow goes down before that, it goes to an utterly insane contested convention. Bernie will have the moral high ground to say it should be him, but that almost certainly won't matter. He'd have the largest block of pledged delegates, but all the remaining delegates would probably be committed to some not-Bernie. You'd probably have Klobuchar making some midwestern electability argument plus an "I'm closest to Biden ideologically" argument, maybe Warren making some kind of party unity argument, Bernie arguing its his by right, but really at that point it could go to virtually anyone.
Proven Ukraine conspiracies didn't help either. Nothing works.
The Democratic Party is not going to ignore their ENTIRE PARTY to instantly nominate an independent who couldn't even win a primary. He's not a Democrat, they owe him nothing.
What's all this Cuomo shit??? DO YALL NOT REMEMBER EARLY ON HOW HE WAS AGAINST SHELTER IN PLACE???? waving off San Francisco's approach? Being publicly ignorant about what it meant?
If you're going to push for some Governor who got attention because of this pandemic, you would think Gavin Newsom's name would be brought up before Cuomo... but hey "New York" right?
Cuomo speaks out his ass at times as well. Yall love just jumping on new trends just for the fuck of it.
I don't trust Establishment Democracts, but I trust Gavin more so than Cuomo, if I had to choose. And no it's not just because he was a former Mayor of San Francisco or the current Governor of California.
If you're going to push for some Governor who got attention because of this pandemic, you would think Gavin Newsom's name would be brought up before Cuomo... but hey "New York" right?
Cuomo speaks out his ass at times as well. Yall love just jumping on new trends just for the fuck of it.
I don't trust Establishment Democracts, but I trust Gavin more so than Cuomo, if I had to choose. And no it's not just because he was a former Mayor of San Francisco or the current Governor of California.
It's why if this scenario plays out it will be someone with extremely strong name brand recognition. Without rallies you need someone who gets people to the polls.
That basically means:
1) Bernie - no way centrist Dems would let him win at the convention.
2) Warren - could be a weird "bring everyone together" to unite the left and right of the party, but she did horribly in the primary (see 7a) and the moderate D's don't like her.
3) Cuomo - big name brand recognition, basically in the "Rudy post 9/11" seat of national popularity - I think the most likely
4) Michelle Obama - doubt she wants it
5) Pelosi - tons of baggage, but has name brand recognition.
6) Hillary - That is a hole giant box of baggage, but I could see them pushing for a "do over" election.
7a) An 'also ran' from the primary. Beto, Pete etc. - this feels like a wet fart pick that wouldn't really rally the base because they didn't inspire in the primary.
7b) Someone from the Veepstakes list. This includes 2 "also rans" in Harris and Klobuchar that have the problem of 7a. Then Abrams, Wihitmer, Masto and Duckworth. Only Abrams is really a "name" and even that is limited to those really into politics.
8) Gore - kind of a Hillary with less baggage pick?
9) Kerry - going down the list of "hey, people will at least remember they exist" pick.
10) Bill Gates/Warren Buffet/Oprah - throwing shit at the wall here.
Cuomo is in the spotlight because New York is in worse shape than California. His slowness to act actually made him politically more popular than the other governors.
Cuomo is totally shit, I agree. That can be the truth at the same damn time it's the truth that he'd be able to win in a landslide.
I would be interested to hear how everyone who voted for him in the primary somehow no longer belong to the party.