Here's where my head is currently at.
Lock-Town:
BoJack
malus
Very likely town based off behaviour, meta and claim:
Zipped
Likely town based off claim aligning with others claims (for now):
Vere
PoE (in no particular order):
Nat
Ephi
Shirou
HP
Royal
LP
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Out of that PoE, I feel best about Ephi and Shirou.
Ephi has been questioning others and hasn't been afraid to march to the beat of her own drum if she thinks there's something that people aren't noticing. She's been a bit gun-shy about posting reads but I think that is a tad NAI for her. If she doesn't have a strong read she will hesitate to post it, or mark it as a gut read. I like that she was on Blarg early, even if it was a bus, because it reinforced to me that going in on Blarg was a good idea. Her claim seems reasonable. It's difficult to prove but it seems very elaborate for a fake claim. I don't understand why a scum oracle would be out here giving us (seemingly accurate) information? Even if the information hasn't been entirely useful. I found myself agreeing with her that she shut down the cult talk early. Scum would want to play that up I think, and get a Zipped mis-lunch or something like that. Shades of Mafioso there. I don't think I want to eliminate Ephi today. I would put her at a light-town to null-ish read, but she's in the PoE due to lack of options at this point in the game. Could she be scum? Yeah, but I don't quite think so at the moment. If it's down to eliminate Ephi or no-vote/eliminate someone from my town reads, I would vote to eliminate Ephi, but it doesn't seem like that scenario is likely at the moment.
Shirou has felt like his normal self, maybe a little angy-er than usual. I noticed a bit of a change in his behaviour today, however. His 180 flip on HP was very weird. Him tying himself to LP and defending him was also curious. Paranoia has me believe this is a potential scum reaction to the narrowing PoE. If LP is scum I'd be inclined to believe Shirou is scum as well. Shirou's soft claim could be a number of roles that we haven't yet seen in this game, so I think it's certainly possible that he's town and so is LP. I'd prefer a full claim from him to really evaluate the possibility but I am not interested in fishing there. I had Shirou as a strong town read but after today I think he's sliding down a bit, to a light town read at best and maybe more of a null. I would only vote for Shirou in a similar scenario as the above described for Ephi, which does not seem to be likely today either.
Royal has picked up a bit since he's been more available. The initial extended absence and the tunnel on Shirou leaves a lot of room for scum to operate in, however. I like that despite the tunnel on Shirou, he's still going for HP. I agree with him that HP is probably the best flip for town to get right now. Royal being away at EoD is awfully convenient, because if he's scum and he picks up pressure he won't be able to claim.
I've already made my thoughts clear on LP. If HP flips scum I think LP is cleared. I think flipping LP before HP would be a huge mistake.
I should probably dig in on Nat to see what's up there. I did a re-read of jman earlier in the game and got very little from it. I think the Miller claim upon his subbing in is fine. If he's actually a Miller, that would probably be a good move to clear that up immediately. I thought jman was softing a Paranoid Gun Owner or similar role, but a Miller does match what he was describing to an extent, if the Miller has another power. However, scum can and will do anything, and Nat in particular can and will do anything, so I don't think the Miller claim is this great clear. Nat's behaviour around anex's elimination was pretty suspicious to me. It felt like he didn't buy that anex was scum and was asking others to convince him, but voted there anyway and then when anex flips town he gets to say "ah darn I knew it". I'll give Nat the benefit of the doubt for now, because subbing in when he did was certainly difficult, but this is something I will be going back to later to re-evaluate.
I think HP is the best flip for today. It will help town solve the game. I will be staying there for now, unless he completely drops out of contention, in which case I will be upset that he wriggled out again.
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Voting order for today is something like: HP > Royal > Nat > Shirou > Ephi. I will not be voting one of my town reads today, and I think we should flip HP first before LP.