It's funny he thinks public perception matters. Didn't matter with Manafort going to prison, wont matter for the Trump family.
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US PoliERA 2018 |OT13| And now the fun starts
- Thread starter Midnight Jon
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It's funny he thinks public perception matters. Didn't matter with Manafort going to prison, wont matter for the Trump family.
My feeling is that Trump steps down of his own volition, even under threat of sure impeachment like Nixon, he gets the pardon. The reason is if you don't pardon him, then no future President accused of serious crimes would ever step down. If he fights it to the bitter end, and either gets impeached or voted out in 2020, then all bets are off. Lock him up and throw away the key.
They were all idiots, especially Mary fucking Chesnut, JESUS FUCKING CHRIST JUST SHUT THE FUCK UP. ON NO FALLEN GLORY. SHUT UP. YOU KNOW WHAT THE S IN ULYSSES S GRANT STANDS FOR? SHUTUP
Turn Turn Turn by The Byrds intensifying
Very Daniel Stern Voice: I didn't realize it at the time, but his was the last time I watched Ken Burns' The Civil War. I couldn't admit it then and there, but by 2018, my reserves of tolerance for Shelby fucking Foote and his bullshit have depleted, forever.
Maine passed a law changing it to a primary in mid 2016, Colorado voters approved a proposition for an open primary this past election day, and Utah approved the money to hold a primary (the legislature still needs to go through another step to actually authorize the primary itself, which will come up next year), so it's likely down to 8 states now.
NYT: Prosecutors' Narrative Is Clear: Trump Defrauded Voters. But What Does It Mean?
In a sentencing memo filed on Friday in the case of Mr. Cohen, prosecutors from the Southern District of New York depicted Mr. Trump, identified only as "Individual-1," as an accomplice in the hush payments. While Mr. Trump was not charged, the reference echoed Watergate, when President Richard M. Nixon was named an unindicted co-conspirator by a grand jury investigating the cover-up of the break-in at the Democratic headquarters.
"While many Americans who desired a particular outcome to the election knocked on doors, toiled at phone banks or found any number of other legal ways to make their voices heard, Cohen sought to influence the election from the shadows," the prosecutors wrote.
"He did so by orchestrating secret and illegal payments to silence two women who otherwise would have made public their alleged extramarital affairs with Individual-1," they continued. "In the process, Cohen deceived the voting public by hiding alleged facts that he believed would have had a substantial effect on the election."
The exposure on campaign finance laws poses a challenge to Mr. Trump's legal team, which before now has focused mainly on rebutting allegations of collusion and obstruction while trying to call into question Mr. Mueller's credibility.
"Until now, you had two different charges, allegations, whatever you want to call them," Representative Jerrold Nadler of New York, the incoming Democratic chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, said in an interview on Saturday. "One was collusion with the Russians. One was obstruction of justice and all that entails. And now you have a third — that the president was at the center of a massive fraud against the American people."
There's more in the link.
Ehh please no more hot takes, Comey. You don't have a good track record with this.
Lol, I am not aware of this.. His maid was stealing war documents? Was she on the Union's side?
The CIC thing was actually good for the Union, because the infrastructure and chain of command was already there. The Confederacy had to largely wing it with Davis not wanting to have to make any important decisions.
His maid was ostensibly a slave loaned to him for the war effort by one of the prominent Richmond elite, Elizabeth Van Lew—who was actually an anti-slavery Quaker and who sent her freed maid Mary Bowser, who she had taught to read and write, specifically as a mole for the Union as part of a broader spy network she operated in the city that was pretty fantastically successful.
There's an excellent book on Van Lew, Bowser, and other women on both sides of the conflict I highly recommend: Liar, Temptress, Soldier, Spy.
It's full of some crazy stuff, like the fact that a white woman died her skin with silver nitrate to pass as a black man and nobody could tell the difference.
Can't wait for that slimey Stone to go to prison as well. I bet he faked getting fired from the campaign so that he could work with russians and wikileaks to coordinate cyber attacks.
We have to protect the santity of democratic voting process. All these fuckers need to rot.
We have to protect the santity of democratic voting process. All these fuckers need to rot.
Yeah that will placate his base. But he can't win re-election with just the base. And he can't govern effectively by just pandering to his base.
The implied shade on her totally legitimate not patsy sudden husband, George Oppodroppoulis is brutal and if he doesn't realize what he's into by now then I have no sympathy. "Ur beautiful Simona and your loser husband fails to appreciate it"
With the impending doom of climate change we need to focus on policy over personality and the fact that people in the media/twitter media are trying to polarize potential 2020 candidates this early isn't helpful. We are still almost 1 year away from the primary's so we should be doing what AOC is doing and getting dem politicians to specifically say they support left policy's over and over then when the primary's come around the "test"
is just who do you trust more the implement said policy's nothing else. 20 Dem senators have already pledged to support the new green deal.
is just who do you trust more the implement said policy's nothing else. 20 Dem senators have already pledged to support the new green deal.
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OP
"Are Centrists WAY Too Defensive Of Beto's Shortcomings"
You think you're smooth.
Anyone curious for a really well done nightmare of a movie covering pretty much every modern political issue in the post Trump/social media world i suggest Assassination Nation. It's not pleasant, in a good way if you're into that sort of thing.
From that video:
"If we don't get what we want, or even if we do, there's going to be widespread unrest"
Man, the Bernie people are REALLY out to get Beto early
they reeeealy don't like the attention he's getting.
That said, at least it sounds like they'll vote for him in the end if that's what it comes down to. Mostly.
Though if the point is #uncivility I'm for that.
The Bernie people are attacking Beto because they know he's their biggest threat. I think Bernie people are probably going to have to support Kamala Harris if they want to beat Beto. And I'm not convinced she has the *it* factor yet. Bernie and Warren definitely don't.
Attention that he's getting in large part, Ironically, because he hired a bunch of Bernie people.
Harry Litman is on MSNBC every day. Have yet to hear him voice this particular opinion on TV. He sort of handwaves the Clinton investigation stuff as "maybe Barr really wants that, we'll see." Will be looking out for it as confirmation time nears.
I look forward to near two years of "he voted for that one thing that never passed, and, he lost to Ted Cruz"
Don't be cute. It's December 2018, and no legitimate candidate has even announced yet. It's obvious what is happening here
Probably the most interesting thing from that story Haberman tweeted out was that prosecutors believe they can charge Trump with campaign finance law violations if he is not re elected. That's one way to obviate the need for impeachment (and pardon)—have Trump legitimately lose in 2020 and then send him to jail.
Which means losing isnt an option for him. Everyone should be very scared of 2020.
well what I mean is that it's not unfair. this is how we gauge candidates and it seems to me, in a time where candidates like Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, and even Corey Booker are taking pretty bold progressive stances, that Beto can come along with a pretty unremarkable history and just get a free pass.
No, this is how the fringe "gauges" candidates, to try and form and push a narrative because the vast majority of the electorate isn't paying attention because... IT'S DECEMBER 2018 AND NOBODY IS EVEN IN THE RACE YET*. Good lord, I'm not even a Beto guy and this is already getting dumb
*Ojeda doesn't out, as he's a joke
The Green New Deal would be a major coup because it would rewire the whole "green = lost jobs" narrative that dominates outside of big cities and their suburbs. A heroic effort is going to be needed to avert climate disaster and a lot of space is going to be needed for that effort; massive tree-planting and forestry initiatives, putting up millions of solar panels down south and in the desert west, windmills wherever they can go, refits or rebuilds of existing coal-fired power plants, and construction and manning of carbon sequestration plants to suck CO2 out of the air and pump it underground.
Fund it all on carbon taxes and debt (because better debt now and being able to pay it off in 2100 then there not being enough of us left to make a society in 2100) and buy off all the rural whites. Can't stop 'em from being racist but forcibly recruiting them as allies will make a major political shift on the environment in this country.
It would be a heroic effort but the conservative effort to prevent it would also be heroic. Dems need to be all-in on it and go huge.
Fund it all on carbon taxes and debt (because better debt now and being able to pay it off in 2100 then there not being enough of us left to make a society in 2100) and buy off all the rural whites. Can't stop 'em from being racist but forcibly recruiting them as allies will make a major political shift on the environment in this country.
It would be a heroic effort but the conservative effort to prevent it would also be heroic. Dems need to be all-in on it and go huge.
I'll vote for Bento if he wins the primary but let not kid ourselves here. A large part of his appeal is that he's a relatively young , attractive progressive white dude. That that makes him more appealing to a larger portion of the electorate then if he was all of those things minus the white penis.
NOW THIS IS NOT AN ATTACK ON HIM! Nore am I doubting his sincerity , accomplishments or his belief in Progressive policies. But I'm also not going to ignore how much his white privilege has help propell him past others as the apparent Democratic front runner.
NOW THIS IS NOT AN ATTACK ON HIM! Nore am I doubting his sincerity , accomplishments or his belief in Progressive policies. But I'm also not going to ignore how much his white privilege has help propell him past others as the apparent Democratic front runner.
It's the charismatic young guy without a record who's really really good at campaign management thing. It's why there are legit non-weird Obama comparisons, because he had those strengths as well. Gender probably plays into it, after 2008 I don't think I'd say race is necessarily it.
A platform of "we don't want to have to impeach or arrest; we'll let the voters decide ...also medicare for all" is solid.
Most of Sams videos have click bait titles, but he makes a good point that backing candidates and not policies this early is counter productive.
That's the opposite of how people actually work. If people voted on ideology alone, it'd be a fair point, but every single election of my adult life has made it clear that's not the case.
We need 4 Senate seats. My preference order is weighted heavily by the need to win them.
Campaign management? Didnt he perform inline with democrats in the midterm and as well as stacey abrams who arguably had much larger hurdles.
I cant be enthusiastic about any candidate who doesnt come out hard for climate then economic justice.
Were two years from election, we can focus on candidates later. I think your down playing ideology, medicare for all and climate justice have become rallying cries, the former of which has been used effectively as a cudgel to bring politicians in line. Look at politicians like booker and how theyre pivoting to support more progressive ideas.
No. He did not. He overperformed the fundamentals of that race. Trump has a 51% Approval rating in Texas, Cruz's is higher than that by about 3-4 points. He outperformed Hillary across the state except with Hispanic voters. If they had moved alongside other demos, there's a pretty good chance he just straight up wins the race. (I don't know the exact Demo breakdown for Texas last go round.)
Medicare for all is a nice soundbite that's become what people want to see in it. It was deliberately turned into that a decade ago.
Literally the only thing that Trump cares about is how he is perceived. He doesn't want to go out like Nixon, because he knows how Nixon is perceived. He is stupid and rich and honestly believes that there is zero percent chance that he spends a second in jail, so there is absolutely no benefit to his legacy to resign in disgrace like Nixon did. He's not resigning.
I was thinking about this all day yesterday ever since the SDNY memo.
Trump has right now become vulnerable to an instant indictment the moment President Beto is sworn in. Nevermind Mueller's final report or House Democrats, Trump already faces immediate legal exposure the moment he's out of office whether it's 2020 or 2024. Now if Trump manages to survive to 2024, perhaps he can hope for the American public to have long moved on from the current scandals or he can scheme/beg with a Republican president to give him a pardon. Or perhaps spend the majority of his second term trying to systematically take down the SDNY like he did with the heads of the FBI. But that's still leaving a lot to chance.
If Trump loses the 2020 election, I could honestly see him pardoning all his kids in the lame duck session and then either pardoning himself or resigning and have President 30-day Pence give him the pardon.
If the criminal exposure is just these campaign law violations, I could see Trump still run for reelection and attempt the above steps in his second term. But if Mueller's report lays out actual criminal activities on Trump which adds additional criminal exposure (ie, obstruction justice, witness tampering, and perjury), then Trump may feel the legal anvil over his head is just too big that being President for another 4 years is too risky, especially if House Democrats keep doing investigations and giving Trump Org criminal referrals to DoJ every few months.
Trump may decide to resign (probably late in the GOP primary season so he f*cks over other GOP candidates) and arrange for Pence to give him and his family a Nixon level pardon. That would probably be the most reliable option for Trump. He would still have his Trump cult followers, Saudi contacts, and reduced legal exposure. Trump has always only cared about himself and his business. If he perceives for either he or his business to be in any real danger, I strongly believe he'll hit the eject button. Trump's doublespeak and gaslighting have worked well against the media and public opinion, but it doesn't do shit against the law. When Trump is out of office and goes to court for obstruction of justice, witness tampering, perjury, and tax evasion, he's going to go to prison. Typing "Very legal, very cool" on Twitter won't change that. At some point that's going to hit home for him.
IMO, Democrats should hallow Trump out from the inside. They don't ignore impeachment, but instead they say, "We strongly believe President Trump has already committed impeachable offenses, but we're in the process of completing several investigations first, so we can get a full picture and put together thorough impeachment articles. This will allow for Mueller's investigation to reach its full conclusion and Dems can churn up tons of dirt and criminal referrals on his business. Hint at sealed indictments. If done right, Trump will be too scared to run for reelection and Dems can avoid the spectacle of an impeachment with no conviction. And if there does end up being a laundry list of criminal activities found from all the House investigations then go for impeachment and dare Senate Republicans to acquit an outright treasonous criminal.
I'll end with this. If you notice, every time the discussion gets serious,, Trump always reverts to "it was totally legal" or "there was nothing criminal". He gives zero f*cks if it's moral or ethical, he's solely concerned about his criminal exposure. Personally I think the magic number is 10 years. If by early 2020, the accumulated criminal charges face a possible 10 year combined sentence (basically a life sentence for Trump) then Trump is going to resign bigly in 2020. No way he runs for a second term with that much criminal exposure over his head. Possibly extending the statute of limitations was a very smart idea by Nadler.
Or NY needs to find one state felony that he committed which nullifies any possible pardon.
It was the best a Democrat has done in Texas since we purged the Dixiecrats. Cruz and Cornyn usually win by large double digit margins and Beto lost by ~2%.
We shouldn't act like hints to who is gauging their ability to run in 2020 dont exist as a defense for Beto or anyone for that matter. Everyone knew Hillary was running before she even confirmed it.
People jumping on the Beto train so quickly like this would alarm supporters of other potential candidates, its natural and people here need to stop acting like it isnt.
The main downside here.
The guy you are responding to isnt wrong.
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