Wkd Box Office - 5•3-5•19 - Avengers: Endgame comes in second place. Long Shot fails to stop Intruder.
- Thread starter PhoncipleBone
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Honestly, despite the importance corporations (including Hollywood film studios) place on social media, it means absolutely nothing when it comes to box office imo. The amount of "social media buzz" (ie: Twitter and YouTubers) around something is such a miniscule amount of the population that doesn't typically accurately represent the population at large.
They tend to be vague/super large ranges and/or wildly off from the actual numbers. At the last minute they tend to try to revise the forecasts so they are actually more reflective of reality, and they are typically -still- off from that. They are almost entirely based on "buzz" and pre-sales and neither of those things are necessarily going to be accurate in the case of a Pokemon movie. Not all big movies have killer pre-sales weeks in advance like Endgame or Star Wars. In fact I would say most don't.
Aladdin is two weeks down the road and I don't think has -exactly- the same audience crossover anyways. It will affect Pikachu, but not until it's actually out. Pikachu essentially has two weeks "to itself" like Endgame did. The big movie the following week is John Wick, and that has a bigger chance of hurting Endgame than Pikachu.
It'll do better than Dumbo by nature of Aladdin being more modern/younger people having more nostalgia for it + being a musical (with songs most people love). But I do still think it will probably under-perform -- especially compared to Lion King later this summer (which people seem to generally be more excited for).
I guess it says something about a superhero's powerset when half of his rogues have to be "him, but EVIIIL" in order to be credible as threats.
Well them and a psychic Gorilla.
If Endgame doesn't top Avatar people will be blaming Pikachu and that in itself will be great.
I imagine most people would just rewatch it on Netflix instead of paying for a ticket.
Actually it would be pretty interesting to know how many plays Infinity Wars got on Netflix in the last few weeks.
I don't think I agree with this. There is more competition than just audience overlap, there is also competition for space in the cinema. In my local city this week during Pikachus first week endgame has more showings. End game showings are also quite long which takes up a lot of screens. I don't see how it has the next 2 weeks to itself. It'll be competing with a movie taking up a shitload of screens and potentially making a lot more money than Pikachu is.
Whilst Aladdin isn't exactly the same audience there will be some crossover and no doubt it will take a lot of screens as well.
This month is absolutely stacked. Endgame, John wick, Alladin and Godzilla. It's about as awful of a time as it could have released. Not to mention at least here in Australia it missed the school holidays which will hurt it a lot.
If it was just Pikachu, Endgame would easily surpass Avatar. The thing is there is a Pikachu + John Wick + Aladdin + Godzilla combo coming. A new movie expected to both be "good" and do well each week. And since Endgame has such a large audience crossover with every other audience (basically), each of those are going to eat into it -- especially for potential repeat viewers who can go see one of these new movies instead of Endgame again. Plus of course it is no longer brand new and most people who have wanted to see it have now seen it.
I think the screens are a concern, absolutely. But I also think Endgame's screens -will- be weened off. Pikachu is flooding the theatres here this weekend -- I'm not sure why your local theatre seems to not be. Regardless, it anecdotally not getting screens at your theatre shouldn't be the norm worldwide. It's the big new movie this week and will thus be getting a large amount of screens. Those other movies (except Aladdin) are going to do more damage to/have more audience crossover with Avengers than Pikachu.
Agree. Pikachu, John Wick, Aladdin, Brightburn (not huge but will have an impact nonetheless) Godzilla, Rocketman, Dark Phoenix, Life of Pets 2, MIB: International, Shaft, Toy Story 4. All of these will be released within 7 weeks of Endgame. It's gonna be a tough climb I feel.
Dark Phoenix = 300-400
Sonic = 150-275
even though some X-men movies been reviewed badly... but they managed to gross 300+ (The Last Stand, Origins)
Definitely Sonic.
X men isn't going to do numbers but I don't think it will straight up bomb hard.
Sonic on the other hand... pure trash and nobody cares about Sonic to come watch in in cinema
*sharp intake of breath *
Domestic - Dark Phoenix.
Worldwide - Sonic.
I feel like DP could finish under $100m in the US while Sonic could weirdly attract a lot of hate watching and nineties nostalgia but collapse WW.
Are you talking worldwide numbers here?
Will Endgame still be on theater when Spider-Man FFH come out and will it get Spider-Man bump like Captain Marvel getting Endgame bump?
Dark Phoenix: 350m-450m WW
Sonic: 250m-350m WW
These are optimistic numbers.
First off, The Force Awakens is a Disney film. Disney isn't a Marvel fanboy hellbent on forcing a way to beat TFA. A film they released and a franchise they are switching their focus to marketing and pushing instead of Marvel in a few months. Let's not confuse Zatt for Disney would think about these things.
Second, why in would they want to step on the toes of Captain Marvel's theatrical run before Endgame was out?
Third, IW is on Netflix. There is no audience dying to go see it in theaters that would bring any noticeable amount of money to profit over what it would cost to release it and market it.
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He probably meant for next Monday (we were previously discussing with the great Zatt)
Edit: Looking at this and seeing the IW drop... Damn, that is quite the drop indeed.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=avengersvstarwars.htm
It's basically the same % as IW's drop on the same day.
Right but based on it's current trajectory, I feel Endgame will be in the high teens/low twenties today.
US indeed. Not so much drop, on par of monday's drops compared to sundays. We need to know OS but probably anybody will be happy with 400-500M at the end of the week.
Those Chipmunk movies, Smurfs and Peter Rabbit made Enough cash for Sequels so I won't rule it out.
It's got 2 weeks until Frozen 2 freezes the entire box office though.
It's weird, but I suspect that the hedgehog is more popular among children than some give him credit for.
I was surprised to overhear children in the street talking about Sonic (and maybe even his shitty friends) on two seperate occasions.
Then a child of my coworker wanted Sonic for his birthday cake.
The thing about these anecdotes is that I'm from post-Soviet country where I wouldn't even suspect most people knowing WTF Sonic is. I can't imagine those kids knowing about SEGA or even that he's a game character.
It's weird.
I know anecdotes like these aren't indicative of anything, but still.
They make a sinking Titanic comment but not Endgame coming to burn down Avatar's Mana Tree.
Regardless of Sonic's design, the film itself looks cheaply made. Shouldn't be too hard to turn a profit unless it bombs disastrously
Holidays. That's why blockbusters get saved for Christmas now. ROTK became #2 all time as a holiday release, Avatar became #1, TFA #3.
If only Aquaman and Shazam dates were reversed, for the latter's sake :(
Not that Shazam would have done Aquaman's numbers but a little better.
Financially for WB, yeah, it made more to have Aquaman on Christmas.
But c'mon Shazam is even set in December in-universe :v
No worries, they'll just work the VFX people to death with no extra pay!
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