Almost surprising IW is so quickly going to start falling behind TFA domestically.
Oh yeah.
Holidays. That's why blockbusters get saved for Christmas now. ROTK became #2 all time as a holiday release, Avatar became #1, TFA #3.
Not that EG will beat it in the end as it won't but you can't compare summer days vs christmas days, TFA was always going to catch up, it's first couple of weeks are unlike anything else. Endgame should eventually get to 850-900m which is great.Almost surprising IW is so quickly going to start falling behind TFA domestically.
What films opened after Infinity War? Did it have strong competition or not?If this thing has Infinity War legs, like it's starting to look like it might have, then it'll get something like a 2.5-2.6x multiplier, which would put it at around 3.02-3.14 billion. It would have to have considerably worse legs than Infinity War to not even reach Avatar at this point. At the moment I think 3 billy is the "somewhat likely but not locked yet" endgame for Endgame while Avatar is fairly certain.
Even if Pikachu disappoints it won't do 90mSo now that the 2nd weekend talk is over. How do you guys think Endgame will fare against TFA for it's 3rd weekend? Will it do $90m? Will it do more or less?
IW drop gets it around $80m next weekend.So now that the 2nd weekend talk is over. How do you guys think Endgame will fare against TFA for it's 3rd weekend? Will it do $90m? Will it do more or less?
Deadpool 2 & Solo were in May.What films opened after Infinity War? Did it have strong competition or not?
All the good stuff last year this time was before IW, such as A Quiet Place, Rampage, Blockers. Mid May had Deadpool 2 but IW was already in it's 3rd weekend by then.What films opened after Infinity War? Did it have strong competition or not?
I mean, if John Wick 3, Detective Pikachu & Aladdin are considered competition that will cut legs of Endgame, then Deadpool 2 and Solo certainly were for Infinity War as well. Deadpool 2 in particular opened really big and Solo was bigger than Detective Pikachu will end up being, unless it starts seeing some considerably increases in its opening weekend predictions.All the good stuff last year this time was before IW, such as A Quiet Place, Rampage, Blockers. Mid May had Deadpool 2 but IW was already in it's 3rd weekend by then.
Edit: So really no competition.
I mean, if John Wick 3, Detective Pikachu & Aladdin are considered competition that will cut legs of Endgame, then Deadpool 2 and Solo certainly were for Infinity War as well. Deadpool 2 in particular opened really big and Solo was bigger than Detective Pikachu will end up being, unless it starts seeing some considerably increases in its opening weekend predictions.
All the good stuff last year this time was before IW, such as A Quiet Place, Rampage, Blockers. Mid May had Deadpool 2 but IW was already in it's 3rd weekend by then.
Edit: So really no competition.
I can see Endgame dipping this weekend but getting back up the next. Pikachu strikes me as either having a strong start with weak legs, or a modest start with modest legs.
By the time Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix release Endgame won't be in the top 3 anymore so that really isn't a big deal.I see, thanks for the information.
I wonder if Pikachu is a direct competition? Like, I think DP is a family film (Or at least hits the under 25 demo) while Endgame hits the four quadrants outright.
I think both will cut some of their % short, but both will have decent legs since there are no big family releases until June? With Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix?
You think Phoenix is going to open above 50 million? Would you be willing to bet on it?By the time Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix release Endgame won't be in the top 3 anymore so that really isn't a big deal.
We have a film each week for the rest of the month with a good shot at opening above 50m. Pikachu this week, John Wick 3 next week, Aladdin the following week. And rounding out the month with Godzilla.
True. It will be interesting to see, especially since Aladdin is another Disney release.We have a film each week for the rest of the month with a good shot at opening above 50m. Pikachu this week, John Wick 3 next week, Aladdin the following week. And rounding out the month with Godzilla.
Phoenix will not open over 50m, I agree 100%. That is in June though. I think Pikachu, Wick 3, Aladdin, & Godzilla could all open over 50 mil though and those are releasing in May.You think Phoenix is going to open above 50 million? Would you be willing to bet on it?
Ah I don't necessarily mean a percentage rise as much as position. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets another #1 before Aladdin. John Wick can go either way though.Based on that's coming out this month and the next I don't see Endgame picking up at all. I see it dropping every weekend.
This week would be the week. Since next week is Wick 3 presales have been very strong. Then the following week is Aladdin.Ah I don't necessarily mean a percentage rise as much as position. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets another #1 before Aladdin.
I understood but yeah you're right, if Endgame stands a chance at another #1 weekend it'll have to be this weekend as I feel by the time John Wick 3 is out, Endgames legs will be that of a dwarfs.Ah I don't necessarily mean a percentage rise as much as position. Wouldn't be surprised if it gets another #1 before Aladdin. John Wick can go either way though.
It'll probably do fine for its budget, but I seriously doubt it does Bohemian Rhapsody numbers.Sidenote: What about Rocketman? I don't see that mentioned a lot here yet I feel it will be Godzilla's competition. Releases the same day as Godzilla.
I'd be surprised if it did half of what Bohemian Rhapsody did WW.Godzilla will be #1 that week, I don't think Rocketman is going to pull a Bohemian Rhapsody.
Endgame is #2 of all time is what the title is referring to (finally dethroned Titanic). It's a somewhat obfuscating title.I don't get these threads. "Avengers comes in second places" but the OP has it being #1 everywhere. Wtf is this?
I don't get these threads. "Avengers comes in second places" but the OP has it being #1 everywhere. Wtf is this?
There will only be one "Rocketman" for me...Sidenote: What about Rocketman? I don't see that mentioned a lot here yet I feel it will be Godzilla's competition. Releases the same day as Godzilla.
Oh man what a huge mistake the OP made. Someone better fix that title.I don't get these threads. "Avengers comes in second places" but the OP has it being #1 everywhere. Wtf is this?
It's a normal drop for a spring release. Endgame still has the highest second Monday of any spring release in history.
....
Yeah, at this point TFA is not a good comparison for Endgame, two weeks of holidays gave TFA insanely good weekday numbers.
it's that soon? I thought it was going to be near the end of the year. Sent to dieWhoever decided to put Brightburn next to Aladdin, in the same window as Endgame, Pikachu, John Wick, and Godzilla, is an idiot. Seems like it would have done fine for itself in a more quiet month.
As a reminder, Zatt had next Monday's (5/13) EG number at 10-12M. Good luck with that
The downplaying of TFA's run is incredible to witness. From "it didn't have good legs" to "it released during the holidays" as if that's some golden ticket for the numbers it put up.Don't get into the nuances of movie releases mate because the argument is meaningless when someone brings in a point saying EG opened up in more theaters than TFA ever did and markets like Asia where Star Wars has no cultural impact. Yet TFA was able to reel in that much cash.
The downplaying of TFA's run is incredible to witness. From "it didn't have good legs" to "it released during the holidays" as if that's some golden ticket for the numbers it put up.
When did I ever say that. People are absolutely downplaying its run, I had an almost two page back and forth with someone who said "its legs fell off of a cliff" after the holidays when they actually improved, so either you're missing the conversations that happened or you can't read.No one's downplaying TFA's run, unless you're denying that the holiday season had any impact on it's numbers, in which case you're just delusional.
Yup. That "Disney's Road to the Box Office 2019" chart is gonna look like >1B, flop, >1B, flop, >1B, etc. :Vit's that soon? I thought it was going to be near the end of the year. Sent to die
Sure, but at this point there are tons of people who have already seen Endgame (and people who would never have gone to see it, even if DP & JW3 didn't exist) to throw around some 50-60 million dollars for DP and JW3 without it affecting what Endgame can do at that point all that much.By the time Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix release Endgame won't be in the top 3 anymore so that really isn't a big deal.
We have a film each week for the rest of the month with a good shot at opening above 50m. Pikachu this week, John Wick 3 next week, Aladdin the following week. And rounding out the month with Godzilla.
The downplaying of TFA's run is incredible to witness. From "it didn't have good legs" to "it released during the holidays" as if that's some golden ticket for the numbers it put up.
Brightburn should have been a Feb movie, that month have been gone for that type of filmYup. That "Disney's Road to the Box Office 2019" chart is gonna look like >1B, flop, >1B, flop, >1B, etc. :V
When did I ever say that. People are absolutely downplaying its run, I had an almost two page back and forth with someone who said "its legs fell off of a cliff" after the holidays when they actually improved, so either you're missing the conversations that happened or you can't read.
No one is denying that releasing during the holidays bolstered its run. But its not the first movie to ever release during the holidays so that's not the only reason why it was wildly successful.
But Endgame has posted amazing numbers on working weekdays thus far. Though it'll begin to plumitt very soon.Anyone who says that TFA's legs fell off a cliff after the holidays is delusional as well, as a quick look at the numbers will prove otherwise. I only see people saying that TFA had good weekday numbers its first and second weeks because of the holidays, which is absolutely true since you don't get those kinds of numbers on working weekdays. To try to compare TFA and Endgame on that basis is foolish.
Its weekend legs strengthened after the holidays though, despite weekday performance. I made a long post (in which was conveniently ignored) detailing its weekend numbers earlier in the thread.Anyone who says that TFA's legs fell off a cliff after the holidays is delusional as well, as a quick look at the numbers will prove otherwise. I only see people saying that TFA had good weekday numbers its first and second weeks because of the holidays, which is absolutely true since you don't get those kinds of numbers on working weekdays. To try to compare TFA and Endgame on that basis is foolish.