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Conditional-Pancakes

The GIFs of Us
Member
Jun 25, 2020
10,889
the wilderness
I like the last few posts a lot.

Faddy is still on my radar, but it bothers me that I can't reasonably tell if this money gathering thing is scum play or just... weird play.

The narrative around her is she was scum 3 games in a row, is opening like she did in those games and is hard to read so would make people sleep easier if she was gone.

Its a weak argument which is why I called it out, but that is what people have been saying.
Hawthorn is a real convenient place for scum to put their votes without arguing more than what's already been argued.

Now side eyeing those votes on hawthorn.

She is super hard to read with quite a passive playstyle but voting for her because she was scum 3 games in a row seems stupid.

I agree. It really seems that that the only real argument against Hawthorn here is "but she was mean to me in other games :( "
It doesn't seem serious at all. And from the three persons I asked about their Hawthorn vote (Sparks, Maol, Hedin), only Hedin answered (saying it was nothing more than a throwaway first vote).

Which leads us to Launchpad. I didn't find his justification really convincing. Nothing in there makes me want to lunch Hawthorn today. And the bet argument doesn't seem very solid to me at the moment. I don't like Launchpad attaching himself to this flimsy vote train.

So right now my mind is between Faddy or Launchpad for a lunch tonight.

But before I vote, I have a serious question for you all:

Why is a "no lunch" day 1 such a no-no? I can understand how in a regular, simpler game it's better to lunch no matter what, but in such a complex bastard game? I'm not so sure... Maybe it would bring more useful information and be less dangerous to Town to just stay still and wait to see what happens in the night? And I suspect a lot will happen... Also, I'm pretty sure there are a lot of Town people around in this game Day 1. Pretty sure the chance to hit a Townie no matter what is super high and won't bring good information.

Anybody also sees my logic here? I think I would be willing to vote "No Lynch" just for today.
 

Kyanrute

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,629
Tomato
I guess scum could also just PM Fanto every item on the item shop list and see what comes back as out of stock. They might have realized that later and that's why there was no follow-up from Hawthorn on the bet?

Not exactly true. They'd have to risk losing their cash in the process. If an item is in stock, they get it. If they run out of cash, they get no info about the items. The bet is a cash-free scan but it comes with its own risks, one being this very topic right here.

The thing is then every bet would have to be looked at within the same light and to me if you want to look that way then the wee and Faddy "partnership" raises a bit more eyebrows.

Correct, a successful transfer is notably more suspicious than a attempted one if this thought is entertained. It also is noteworthy that Ambulance also did a donation to the get wee some cardboard! -fund, it wasn't just Faddy.
 

Stantastic

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,493
Also a no from me as well, especially given that we will be talking during the night.

Speaking of which see ya then, imma go be unconcious now.
 

Conditional-Pancakes

The GIFs of Us
Member
Jun 25, 2020
10,889
the wilderness
Ok, ok. lol! Well, I won't vote "No Lynch" by myself like a dum-dum, it wouldn't accomplish anything. I'll wait a bit to see if anybody else would like to comment about the idea, and then I'll strudel-vote for someone.
 

nin

Asked Politely
Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
7,159
But i know how this is going to turnout so i will stay with my current vote :P
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,685
I want to remind everyone the D1 Hawthorn read is a D1 read.

But before I vote, I have a serious question for you all:

Why is a "no lunch" day 1 such a no-no? I can understand how in a regular, simpler game it's better to lunch no matter what, but in such a complex bastard game? I'm not so sure... Maybe it would bring more useful information and be less dangerous to Town to just stay still and wait to see what happens in the night? And I suspect a lot will happen... Also, I'm pretty sure there are a lot of Town people around in this game Day 1. Pretty sure the chance to hit a Townie no matter what is super high and won't bring good information.

Anybody also sees my logic here? I think I would be willing to vote "No Lynch" just for today.
If your perspective is that many town players are vanilla, then not a lot is going to happen. Lynching is one of the only ways town gets information and controls the happenings of the game. No D1 lynch means we maybe do not get any information.

But i know how this is going to turnout so i will stay with my current vote :P
So me actually delivering an explanation doesn't change your mind?
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,808
no lunch is a serious no no for day 1.

Part of what helps in Mafia is to establish voting patterns and arguments. It also gives us a flip which helps establish knowns (something scum has and town needs).

I have played games here with no lunch day 1, ties day 1, scum hits day 1, and the traditional clustertruck town lynch day 1. of those the worst two are ties and no lynch.
 
Oct 26, 2017
12,575
UK
I want to remind everyone the D1 Hawthorn read is a D1 read.


If your perspective is that many town players are vanilla, then not a lot is going to happen. Lynching is one of the only ways town gets information and controls the happenings of the game. No D1 lynch means we maybe do not get any information.


So me actually delivering an explanation doesn't change your mind?

Didn't really change mind either, I didn't think it was particularly strong reasoning for being so adamant she should go
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,685
Didn't really change mind either, I didn't think it was particularly strong reasoning for being so adamant she should go
Of course not man, look at that. Your agument is Weaker than Bloodworth Bench Pressing abilities ( I love him )
Like i said earlier its a nothing burger in my eyes
So just to be clear, you were both voting for me on the basis that I put down a vote with little explanation, not that the explanation was weak. I already admitted that it was a D1 read.

A

I agree.

In fact.

Vote: Launchpad

I might move it if his super different reasoning for hawthorn is reasonable
the opportunism of just putting a vote down on someone even though there is nothing behind that and also trying to put down those who on the one hand agree that Launch is kinda sus but then vote for Hawthorn will make my voting choice very easy.

Vote: LaunchpadMcQ
 
Oct 26, 2017
12,575
UK
So just to be clear, you were both voting for me on the basis that I put down a vote with little explanation, not that the explanation was weak. I already admitted that it was a D1 read.

Your vote was terrible. You say in the vote post thst faddy is strongly sus, and there have been some reasonable d1 arguments for him, yet you still want hawthorn, who conveniently has 3 votes on her, you giving her 4 to tie for the lead.

Then your explanation post even says getting rid of faddy would help prove hawthorn is scum but still voting hawthorn..

Your vote looked opportunistic as fuck and your reasoning was vague d1 reasoning yet you feel strongly about getting rid of her.

None of it adds up man.
 

Conditional-Pancakes

The GIFs of Us
Member
Jun 25, 2020
10,889
the wilderness
VOTE: LaunchpadMcQ

For the reasons I highlighted in my post above.

I'm still open to discuss this no lynch idea, though. I think it might have some merit. But I hear what you all said and understand why you wouldn't want to go this way.
 

LaunchpadMcQ

Member
Oct 25, 2017
5,685
Your vote was terrible. You say in the vote post thst faddy is strongly sus, and there have been some reasonable d1 arguments for him, yet you still want hawthorn, who conveniently has 3 votes on her, you giving her 4 to tie for the lead.
lol I find that hilarious since you are supporting Maol, who did literally the same thing - said Faddy was sus then immediately went to work out who to vote for out of Hawthorn, Blarg, and me. At least be consistent.

fwiw, out of all the active players, I sus Faddy the most.

I'm not sure I would kill him D1 tho. All I've got is a gut feeling about it and if I'm wrong, and if Faddy is town that'd be a big self inflicted wound.

For people I wouldn't mind killing today, Launchpad, Hawthorn and Blarg are all viable options. Launchpad and Hawthorn mostly because I'm seeing a lot of shade thrown their way and I'm curious if those feelings are legit or fabricated. Blarg because he's a big wildcard that can tank town. See, Transistor mafia. Getting rid of wildcards early while town has the opportunity is fine if town is skittish about lunching an active player.
 

Zippedpinhead

Fallen Guardian
Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,808
Reki Lone_Prodigy Zippedpinhead Sawneeks A Wild Ambulance Appears Conditional-Pancakes Aeleus rac

I need to see some votes down.

I'm not going to let town torpedo this shit by being lazy and waiting for the last second.
I have said already that I would vote Hawthorn or you today, and was leaning Hawthorn at the time.

See - >
If it is between just the two I'm voting Hawthorn as of right now, but the day is still young. Seeing you vote does help me think my read isn't too far off.

I'm still voting for one of you two today. I'll drop a vote from where I was last night and starting my reread today ( I think Aeleus posted more in my overnight specifically).

vote: hawthorn
 

nin

Asked Politely
Avenger
Oct 26, 2017
7,159
Don't worry launch. Mao is a mega suspicious player just after you because of that comment
 
Oct 26, 2017
12,575
UK
lol I find that hilarious since you are supporting Maol, who did literally the same thing - said Faddy was sus then immediately went to work out who to vote for out of Hawthorn, Blarg, and me. At least be consistent.

I can move my poptart at any time.

Also maol didn't use the reasoning to put someone joint top of votes.

You doing it now is more suspect than him doing it yesterday or whatever.
 

Reki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,956
probably more given how borked my sleep schedule is atm.

You better take care, ok?

You too Chuggs, saw you posting until late last night and super early today in my catch-up.

he wasnt calling out Faddy on the Wee fund he was using it as an example of Faddy trying to appear more engaged than he really was, not a point i think i agree with but still not what your accusing him of there.
I'm not following this last part. It doesn't seem inconsistent to me. Can you clarify?

He wasn't in that post, Stan. But he did, earlier. Let me recount stuff so we can all get a clearer picture, myself included;
1. Faddy goes "Let's give someone all the money" in #95 half an hour into the game. He volunteers to receive it at #102.
2. Chuggs shares doubts on #107. He doesn't seem on board because we don't know the alignment of folks yet.
3. He expands on it by saying, on #142 and #146;
Oh something that I was thinking about when I saw the rules, bets are probably a really good way for scum to transfer money to one another so we should be on the lookout for that.
Yeah, but if we end up giving it to scum they can just lie about it and scum can end up with something useful. I dunno. Not a fan of it at this stage


4. wee sets up a money-transferring bet in #145, Faddy accepts "as a goodwill gesture" at #166, and recommends that a lot of people contribute "a small amount" to the Lightning fund.
5. Ambulance is on board too at #169. Honestly forgot this happened at all.
6. Some other folks don't like the idea, me included. Won't pick up these, they're a bunch of posts scattered through the last day and a half.
7. Fast forward hundreds of posts.
8. Faddy brings up again something he said in #306 with #651;
So uhh the Get wee Lightning fund doesn't seem to have taken off. Remember you (yes YOU) need to contribute some Don Bucks so we can get the cool item.

I would prefer wee gets it with pooled money and a coming together of a community and not chuggs who has tried to gain money through gambling and exploiting people.


9. Then Faddy says "conning" in #694, which seems to upset Chuggs and kickstarts his vote and reaction, already quoted in my previous post.

To me it looked like Chuggs got a strong reaction against it first - "Lmao okay. Keep on trying to make what I did sound worse than it actually was." in #701 - and then he votes and later brings up Faddy's posts that looked like he was disengaged. That's why it felt like there was OMGUS in there.

Is Faddy exaggerating and throwing unfair shade? Yes, Chuggs wasn't tricking people to get that money - although a sided bet goes against the L&R spirit, but whatever -.
Was Chuggs against moving money to one random person? Yes, at the start of the game.
Can we suspect Chuggs for this?
You were the person who was initially against pooling money for items. So when you do a 180 and decide to collect money to buy a big item I find that is not the towniest thing.

Yes. He goes "I know I'm town.", but we don't and as such we can be suspicious of him getting money and items so it's hardly a good defense.
Did Chuggs contradict himself by strongly reacting to Faddy calling him out for the amount of money he made? I think so. He made a point about the language Faddy used being at the core of his case, but let's remember this;

I think Faddy's idea is not great, but it's also a very town Faddy thing to do

If Chuggs really want to go for people that are disengaged from the game, there're a bunch of folks with barely any presence that could fit that criteria too. It's a bit weird to change an early town-lean just because someone threw a disingenuous adjective and some shade your way but hey, maybe it's as you said, Stan, and Chuggs is just trying to get something, anything, on D1, as most townfolks usually do.

(By the way I do appreciate both of you chiming in, really. Thanks!)

Okay Stan pretty much said why the rest of this doesn't work but I wanted to address this part specifically. Maybe there's a disconnect here, but why on earth would Faddy's argument swaying people or not factor into my scum read of him? One of the reasons I'm scum reading him is because I think he was purposely misrepresenting what I was doing, but weather he's actually persuasive about that doesn't really matter to me

You're right in that it shouldn't matter to your suspicion on him. You suspect whoever you want to. But I do think it makes for an interesting point considering I read your posts as a strong reaction to someone that's not even casing you. It's all about the tone. Does that make sense? (not trying to be snarky there, it really does seem like I'm explaining it poorly).

Like, this;

Honestly there's enough side eyeing of me where I don't think scum is going to touch me tonight. They wouldn't dare anyway. Would rather Kyan get it.

If memory serves me right, it's me, Faddy, Conditional-Pancakes and a passing comment from Stan who have mentioned a doubt or two either about you or the protection votes you've got. That's it. No meanie-reads, no actual cases, nothing.

This is what I mean by you overreacting.

Also I'm gonna be real. I would straight claim neutral at this point if I was it. Town isn't killing a money machine and scum isn't killing someone that can exit the game on their own. I'm not a neutral lol

Hating - due to flavor implications - that this rings genuine at first glance.

LET'S PLAY SOME NINTENDO 64 TONIGHT!

YES I pick Kirb...

I only have Donkey Kong 64

... oh.

Fun item, I've seen folks loving it in the community.

Can we have a gentleperson's agreement that it's the weekend and constrain ourselves a bit?

Yes, please and thank you.

The narrative around her is she was scum 3 games in a row, is opening like she did in those games and is hard to read so would make people sleep easier if she was gone.

This happens all the time though. Lunching folks not because we're so sure they're meanies, but to clear the slot just in case.

Blarg is that kind of vote most of the time too.

But i know how this is going to turnout so i will stay with my current vote :P

Of course not man, look at that. Your agument is Weaker than Bloodworth Bench Pressing abilities ( I love him )

Like i said earlier its a nothing burger in my eyes

nin, could I ask you for a favor? Pleeease, could you make a more developed case on Launch? With all the arguments/posts/whatever you can think of. What else does ping you other than the weak Hawthorn vote?

It would help me immensely since I've been agreeing a lot with Launch and don't trust myself not to be pocketed by seasoned baddie!him.

Also, from my pov, you've come to the thread to throw shade around here and there with short posts and, if you're asking for him to justify and make a case for Hawthorn - which he put the effort into, even if you dislike it - you could write one too! Sounds fair?

The bet itself - "exactly six items from the store will be sold by the end of Day 1". It's a strangely specific thing to bet on. By her own admission, Hawthorn created a bet criteria which would make accepting the bet appealing to whoever she was proposing it to, something that would make it very difficult for her to win. This tells us a few things - one, that she was very intent on the recipient accepting the bet; and two, in her mind, she was effectively forfeiting the money.

If she was so intent on having someone accept the bet, my next question would be why? Hawthorn claims she was " eager to take part in the betting system and see how it works" (post #155), but she could have simply observed others performing bets to see how it works instead of placing $500 out of [a supposed] $1500 down on a bet to test it. Seeing how it works is a strange motivation, since she already had a good enough grasp on the logic behind the betting to make the criteria appealing to the recipient. I think the reality here is that Hawthorn had an ulterior motive for proposing a bet - either to add to the narrative that she is acting recklessly and therefore town, or some other unseen goal.

Agreed with this point in particular, except for the forfeit part for the W/W scenario Kyan brought up.

What's curious is that she says Chugg has not had much opposition, but actually does not raise any opposition herself; what she does is just point out that there is little opposition, which reads as light shade throwing, and puts a protection vote elsewhere.

Hawthorn does not actually have any issue with Chugg and has not raised any suspicion about him, so it's weird she would throw shade like this.

To be fair to her, not many folks have raised suspicion of Chuggs. Like, I'm in an argument with him but don't think this is meanie!Chuggs and had people disagree, Hawthorn included.

(Yes, "Can you explain this better?" is a nice way to say you don't agree with something.)

I guess scum could also just PM Fanto every item on the item shop list and see what comes back as out of stock. They might have realized that later and that's why there was no follow-up from Hawthorn on the bet?

While this may be true, I'd guess the "You don't have enough money for that." - or whatever it's phrased - error message would take precedence specifically to avoid folks gaming the system like that.

I'd be inclined to believe the current stock is hidden for a reason, and as such there're ways to prevent people from knowing it.

It means nothing to me, someone earlier said that was par for the course for turm d1, plus I've moved on from blarg for now, and I don't think a blarg train was ever gonna happen d1

Are you expecting it to happen in the future?

I agree. It really seems that that the only real argument against Hawthorn here is "but she was mean to me in other games :( "

Look, if you saw her punching someone in the face until killing them while saying "Trust me I'll explain later." and then a ridiculous Cop claim you trusted for all of 30 seconds before seeing the flip, you'd be hurt too.

I need to see some votes down.

I'll get there, just give me some time.
 

Maolfunction

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,871
To the people who jumped on Launch for his Hawthorn vote, what do you all think of his soft claim where he presumes to know Kyan's alignment? Do you think if we flip Launch and he is town, that we'd get a potential green check?
 

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Member
May 9, 2020
12,514
I don't buy believe Hawthorn is scum but I do believe you believe Hawthorn is scum.
VOTE:Faddy
Question, how closely are you following details and taking notes?
I am going to be honest I have not taken a note since I have started actively posting. I will take more notes promise.
By the way, I've been liking the way you post now, with longer justifications and all. Are you enjoying it yourself?
No I am not enjoying my self.
Would you both mind talking a bit more about this, please? Why would it be a good idea to be locked in a bet until D3? And that one side is favored by not pushing wolves?

I created this bet to give myself a Win win scenario

I am going to try my hardest to find scum and these are the to scenarios That will happen.

1. We successfully kill scum in the first 2 days I am now broke but town is on the right track to winning the Game

2. we don't find scum Town is in a worst position but now I have $3000 don bucks to try to get an item that turns the game around.
 

Reki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,956
I am going to be honest I have not taken a note since I have started actively posting. I will take more notes promise.

Thanks for the clarification. You calling it "shirt" instead of "hoodie" after saying you took notes for the first half of the phase caught my attention, but it's a nothing point so whatever.

No I am not enjoying my self.

Ok stop right there sir.

Me or anyone else can like your approach this time, but if you're not having fun it's not worth it, period. So I dislike it now.

It's a game after all so please do whatever it takes for you to have at least a bit of fun. Pleaaase.

I created this bet to give myself a Win win scenario

I am going to try my hardest to find scum and these are the to scenarios That will happen.

1. We successfully kill scum in the first 2 days I am now broke but town is on the right track to winning the Game

2. we don't find scum Town is in a worst position but now I have $3000 don bucks to try to get an item that turns the game around.

I can see this, it just sounded weird to chain you to a bet for like half a week.

Also, it seems to me like you had some kind of certainty about being alive at the start of D3 to either collect or pay. Would you be as kind as to comment about that?
 

Faddy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,192
Now I remember why I hate large games. There is just too much going on and why I usually only talk to a few people at a time.

My town right now is wee, chuggs, sawneeks, jman and kyan. All these people feel very natural in just posting their thoughts with no regard to anything else that is happening. I like fat4all too but not for the same reason, he has been a bit more intent on solving which for now i will give a town read.

People I don't like because they feel forced. Zipped, Conditional Pancakes, A Wild Ambulance, Launchpad, AllthePurpleThings, Reki.

VOTE: Ambulance

They stand out for me for a couple of reasons. They have a lot of direct but not useful questions. Like asking about the voting tool, asking about the N64 asking for a PIK list from wee but not offering anyhting themselves. I think they were also a bit weird in giving wee money. At least I had a plan and will continue to push for the plan but it seems like they don't care. I don't think it means ambulance and wee are partners but I would feel worse about wee if Ambulance flips scum.

Other than that there isn't a whole lot else goiing on that is pinging me as town or scum. Blarg is in his meta where I can't tell yet. And while I feel like moal has been townie I'm not sure I can read him.
 

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Member
May 9, 2020
12,514
Anybody also sees my logic here? I think I would be willing to vote "No Lynch" just for today.
I am 100% on board with a no lynch

People assume statistically it's better to Lynch day 1 that's not True

Pure statistics it's been figured out that Town wins most often When The first Lynch is day 2

Obviously the game is more complex than math but I also have a theory on player behavior that lynching Day 2 is the best start Town can make.

I can explain more if People actually consider it But These players have been playing together for years and think there way is right we would never be able to convince them to no Lynch.
 

Conditional-Pancakes

The GIFs of Us
Member
Jun 25, 2020
10,889
the wilderness
I am 100% on board with a no lynch

People assume statistically it's better to Lynch day 1 that's not True

Pure statistics it's been figured out that Town wins most often When The first Lynch is day 2

Obviously the game is more complex than math but I also have a theory on player behavior that lynching Day 2 is the best start Town can make.

I can explain more if People actually consider it But These players have been playing together for years and think there way is right we would never be able to convince them to no Lynch.

For Day 1 of this game, I'm still very willing to change my vote to a "No Lynch". But I don't want to do it just by myself because it would be completely useless. Think we should do it now?
 

Faddy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,192
I am 100% on board with a no lynch

People assume statistically it's better to Lynch day 1 that's not True

Pure statistics it's been figured out that Town wins most often When The first Lynch is day 2

Obviously the game is more complex than math but I also have a theory on player behavior that lynching Day 2 is the best start Town can make.

I can explain more if People actually consider it But These players have been playing together for years and think there way is right we would never be able to convince them to no Lynch.

Let me say that this is an awful idea in a bastard game. in a standard game when there reasonably is only one kill then it might be something to consider, especially in role madness. HOWEVER this is a bastard game. There could be multiple factions or a cult that we need to worry about. We can't give scum a free night to power up imo.
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler - Shinra Employee
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,184
the votes settling in those 3 wagons for so long makes me think maybe none of them is scum and this is all DADV (dead air dead villager)
 

jman1954goat

Linked the Fire
Member
May 9, 2020
12,514
Thanks for the clarification. You calling it "shirt" instead of "hoodie" after saying you took notes for the first half of the phase caught my attention, but it's a nothing point so whatever.
I remember it as hoodie also just checked my notes and I wrote it down as Kyle's hoodie. Guess I just accidentally said the wrong word.
It's a game after all so please do whatever it takes for you to have at least a bit of fun. Pleaaase.
I never have fun on day 1 It's mostly dumb memes and jokes with wild Guesses at who to lynch. I crave complex gameplay.
I can see this, it just sounded weird to chain you to a bet for like half a week.

Also, it seems to me like you had some kind of certainty about being alive at the start of D3 to either collect or pay. Would you be as kind as to comment about that?
I never plan on being dead That's no way to play.

If I die before day 3 that would suck But making a shorter bet won't make my death suck any less.

I literally plan for mylo early in all my games.

If I die I die If not I live , can't really control that no reason to Let it change my play.

I never assume I will live or die I am just going to keep playing as if I am going to the endgame like always.
 

Maolfunction

Member
Oct 27, 2017
5,871
If you don't lynch on D1, you're not killing scum. And with an odd number of players, no lynching takes away the opportunity to use a no lynch option during mylo.

Not getting a flip on D1 means you can't look at the wagons on D2 either. You are crippling town from the start without a flip on D1.
 

Conditional-Pancakes

The GIFs of Us
Member
Jun 25, 2020
10,889
the wilderness
Let me say that this is an awful idea in a bastard game. in a standard game when there reasonably is only one kill then it might be something to consider, especially in role madness. HOWEVER this is a bastard game. There could be multiple factions or a cult that we need to worry about. We can't give scum a free night to power up imo.

Isn't it the opposite of what you just said, though? Because in a standard game, the only information you'll get is most likely by lunching someone. Not so much in role madness and in bastard games... Also, in these type of games you could lunch very important abilities of powers by mistake.
 

turmoil7

Community Resettler - Shinra Employee
Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,184
Giving away one lunch is a bad idea

Generally we have 4/5/6 mislunches to eradicate all threats to town, why would we give one away for free
 

Faddy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,192
Isn't it the opposite of what you just said, though? Because in a standard game, the only information you'll get is most likely by lunching someone. Not so much in role madness and in bastard games... Also, in these type of games you could lunch very important abilities of powers by mistake.

The problem is in a bastard game you can't assume anything for sure, even the information you get from PRs.

The only true info you get in a bastard game is a flip and even then not 100% of the time.