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morning folks o/
My current thought process in regards to the 4 we have to pick between is that if I was to vote anyone right now it would be fat4all, but I 100% admit that it would be due to previous meta for me and not related to this current game.
:/ feels bad
My current thought process in regards to the 4 we have to pick between is that if I was to vote anyone right now it would be fat4all, but I 100% admit that it would be due to previous meta for me and not related to this current game.
:/ feels bad
I'm not really sure why you would think that dice would lead to money, at best it would be a 1 in 6 (depending on what type of dice is used) chance which doesn't seem like a good use of that money when you need it for shots. I thin Blarg asked you how much a shot cost earlier but I didn't see a response yet.
I am working on (re)reads, I promise to have at least one in a few minutes, but the Thunderdome situation has been kicking around in my head for awhile and I wanted to talk about it for a minute. I'm going to make some assumptions here, call it tinfoil hatting, call it "he didn't get to a conclusion", call it whatever you want.
Here are the 6 highest posters in D1:
Fat4all: 205
weemadarthur: 164
TheChuggernaut: 157
Conditional-Pancakes: 131
Blargonaut: 122
Maolfunction: 114
There are few people (including myself) that think that the Easy Update is a scum ability. One reason that I did not see mentioned is that Faddy had a role ability specifically pertaining to the item store, and the item store is just totally unavailable today. Likely conclusion is that since Faddy's ability is no longer available, scum went straight into using an ability to throw us off whatever expectations we had, and it's no loss to scum since they cannot sabotage the item store anymore. On top of that, there's a good chance that this was the optimal time to use Easy Update for another reason - the 4 highest post counts from D1 are all town. It's a leap in judgement, but since the only player in that list of four who I was coming into this day with a null read on is Fat4All, I believe that all four of F4A, wee, Chugg, and Pancakes are town. So this situation has been orchestrated by scum for us to kill one of our own. As some have said, I would not lynch any of these folks today without thunderdome, and that's exactly the point. None of this is too crazy so far, but there are a few assumptions.
Now, the night kill being LP has definite importance in this context. I don't think scum went one by one through each player to decide which would be the best player to kill; however, as scum does, they looked at who was likely to be protected or misdirected and who town could be pushed into lynching in subsequent day phases. There were several players that were bad bets to gamble on for a NK - Monkey and Kyan, for example - but Chugg looked like a safe target coming out of D1, why not him? Fat4All, while many town read him, wasn't being talked about the same way as Monkey; same for wee and Pancakes. The other factor is scum having just suffered the loss of one teammate, they want as low a risk kill as possible at this point, and so LP was the best choice since it would take a player out from the bottom and not from the top for the sake of the Thunderdome.
So part of what I'm getting at here, as they might just all be town, is we should also consider who has the least utility in addition to how they're being read, which for me is Chugg or Pancakes. Fat4All hasn't claimed and I do not want him to. I think wee has some utility left with the gossip chat.
AAAAAAAAAND, well, this is where I'd like to drop some tremendous conclusion here about scum not wanting the fifth top poster to enter the Thunderdome and be a lunch option for today because the fifth top poster is in fact scum!... But the fact is the fifth top poster was Blarg. There's no chance that if this is indeed a scum ability, scum has not been paying attention to their post count to make sure they are not in the top 4 posters. Looking at his post frequency, I don't think there's any way to identify a conscious effort to stay out of the top 4 highest post and I am town reading him, so I do not think this was coordinated with Blarg at all.
However, for the real tinfoil hat shit you all came for, I think Maol maybe was actually the one who made a conscious effort to stay out of the top 5, expecting that someone might look at the fifth top poster and try to make a connection there, and that Maol is in fact scum even though he has been acting pretty townie and there isn't anything in his post frequency to indicate this and
Here are the 6 highest posters in D1:
Fat4all: 205
weemadarthur: 164
TheChuggernaut: 157
Conditional-Pancakes: 131
Blargonaut: 122
Maolfunction: 114
There are few people (including myself) that think that the Easy Update is a scum ability. One reason that I did not see mentioned is that Faddy had a role ability specifically pertaining to the item store, and the item store is just totally unavailable today. Likely conclusion is that since Faddy's ability is no longer available, scum went straight into using an ability to throw us off whatever expectations we had, and it's no loss to scum since they cannot sabotage the item store anymore. On top of that, there's a good chance that this was the optimal time to use Easy Update for another reason - the 4 highest post counts from D1 are all town. It's a leap in judgement, but since the only player in that list of four who I was coming into this day with a null read on is Fat4All, I believe that all four of F4A, wee, Chugg, and Pancakes are town. So this situation has been orchestrated by scum for us to kill one of our own. As some have said, I would not lynch any of these folks today without thunderdome, and that's exactly the point. None of this is too crazy so far, but there are a few assumptions.
Now, the night kill being LP has definite importance in this context. I don't think scum went one by one through each player to decide which would be the best player to kill; however, as scum does, they looked at who was likely to be protected or misdirected and who town could be pushed into lynching in subsequent day phases. There were several players that were bad bets to gamble on for a NK - Monkey and Kyan, for example - but Chugg looked like a safe target coming out of D1, why not him? Fat4All, while many town read him, wasn't being talked about the same way as Monkey; same for wee and Pancakes. The other factor is scum having just suffered the loss of one teammate, they want as low a risk kill as possible at this point, and so LP was the best choice since it would take a player out from the bottom and not from the top for the sake of the Thunderdome.
So part of what I'm getting at here, as they might just all be town, is we should also consider who has the least utility in addition to how they're being read, which for me is Chugg or Pancakes. Fat4All hasn't claimed and I do not want him to. I think wee has some utility left with the gossip chat.
AAAAAAAAAND, well, this is where I'd like to drop some tremendous conclusion here about scum not wanting the fifth top poster to enter the Thunderdome and be a lunch option for today because the fifth top poster is in fact scum!... But the fact is the fifth top poster was Blarg. There's no chance that if this is indeed a scum ability, scum has not been paying attention to their post count to make sure they are not in the top 4 posters. Looking at his post frequency, I don't think there's any way to identify a conscious effort to stay out of the top 4 highest post and I am town reading him, so I do not think this was coordinated with Blarg at all.
However, for the real tinfoil hat shit you all came for, I think Maol maybe was actually the one who made a conscious effort to stay out of the top 5, expecting that someone might look at the fifth top poster and try to make a connection there, and that Maol is in fact scum even though he has been acting pretty townie and there isn't anything in his post frequency to indicate this and
Fat4all bought the duce for the exact same reason.
Also I've said I'm broke and we know how much the dice were, doesn't take a genius to work out how much it cost given we all seem to have started with the same money.
That's kind of where I am falling on the situation. It seems like wee pushed too hard on A and left some hard feelings based on the reaction from A but I don't think it has any bearing of wee's alignment.
ahem, back to our regularly scheduled programming.
Aeleus
Tl;dr: Aeleus is a slight scum read for me. There's definitely an overzealous attempt at looking town. Aeleus totally dodges voting for any big train in D1, and goes to bat hard for the lovers near EoD1. That makes me think that they were scum setting up to be on the moral high ground going into N1/D2, and being able to call out those on the wrong side of a major town fuckup. Them voting for me was an attempt to set up a specific patsy for this early on. I looked at what wee added from the chat, but I don't think anything particularly affects anything I've written below.
The other thing is that Aeleus' read of what I said is taking away a lot of credit from me, where I had backed out of casting suspicion on Reki over this after they explained why they put the bet down in the first place. Aeleus is making a case from very little here and it shows that they have very little real reasoning to work with, because scum know I am actually town.
Aeleus
Tl;dr: Aeleus is a slight scum read for me. There's definitely an overzealous attempt at looking town. Aeleus totally dodges voting for any big train in D1, and goes to bat hard for the lovers near EoD1. That makes me think that they were scum setting up to be on the moral high ground going into N1/D2, and being able to call out those on the wrong side of a major town fuckup. Them voting for me was an attempt to set up a specific patsy for this early on. I looked at what wee added from the chat, but I don't think anything particularly affects anything I've written below.
Aeleus throws down a pop-tart on Hawthorn very early on in the game over very little and moves it over to Monkey later on in the phase. This could be an early pocket attempt, but it's thin. It might be an attempt to look good on a Hawthorn flip early on, if Aeleus figures that in light of very little evidence during D1, town may just use meta reads to get a lynch. It just feels a bit too coincidental that this was set up so early, based on very little exchange between the two players. Throw it on the pile of other things going on with Aeleus.
I wouldn't have caught it if wee hadn't pointed it out, but Aeleus definitely sets up a pocket here and it's one of the reasons wee was wary of Aeleus. This is definitely a bit stronger than the Hawthorn pocket above. When called out for it, Aeleus doubles down.
To remind folks, Reki offered me a bet where I would limit my post count to 40 posts in D1. I was wondering if there was some ulterior motive to this, and called Reki out for it. Aeleus responded with what I think is solid advice - limiting my posts can be anti-town play, so I took that and asked Reki to undo the bet. However, Aeleus later says that they did not like the way I handled the bet situation… based on their own advice. I do not think that Aeleus consciously set me up here, but when you're scum, this is the kind of thing you might forget you said when you're juggling a bunch of false perspectives; it has certainly happened to me before. This might be a slip.
The other thing is that Aeleus' read of what I said is taking away a lot of credit from me, where I had backed out of casting suspicion on Reki over this after they explained why they put the bet down in the first place. Aeleus is making a case from very little here and it shows that they have very little real reasoning to work with, because scum know I am actually town.
Aeleus provides a defense for Faddy without overcommitting to avoid attaching themselves to the player in case Faddy flips. Basic scum strategy.
I think Aeleus goes to great lengths to set themselves up as having a moral high ground on the Hawthorn/nin flip. First, Aeleus sets up a case against me prior to the claim that there are lovers. Aeleus was already certain that Hawthorn or Reki were going to flip at this point, so voting for me would set them up to be able to attack me N1/D2. Around the post time, Aeleus sees the lovers roleclaim and decides to double down on defending the lovers. I am just going to summarize instead of going point by point here, but there is a STRONG defense going on here with direct references to other games and possible alternative scenarios. There is an untownlike degree of certainty from Aeleus, which is ironic because they called someone out for being too certain on D1 earlier. The best part is that Aeleus did not have to do any follow up on any of this - they just set up the dominoes and Monkey just ran with it during the night phase by pressing me.
First, gotta say, "Gah!" in honor of my fallen comrade. We'll get you out of there someday, Ronar.
Either teal or a similar shade. Which always makes me wonder, why do I even use that red Anna avatar at all.
What about you? Maybe answer when the spell is broken though.
Ouch, Aeleus. Gonna miss you here! Promise I'll do my best to make it to D5. But Box Peek is an intense sport so no idea if I'll do alright, though
Bonds!
For real, wee?
You know what I meant.
Hope you feel better, Chuggs!
Went back and checked since I wasn't sure either;
Just to be clear, I didn't mean Faddy's theory wasn't too odd, I meant that it was something I could see town!Faddy saying.
Finally, the "defense" is not direct because despite my worries, I didn't like Faddy's moves either;
Could you expand on this, please? Going by numbers alone I'd agree, but from my perspective, knowing that Ninthorn/Reki/turmoil wagons were T/T/?, I wouldn't be surprised if that EoD wasn't too exhausting for meanies and, as such, they'd be in a good shape to chime in on the night too.
Thinking about it because, really active/intense days sometimes mean that open nights are quiet due to exhausted town. This time it was relatively lively, but it could be due to the roster size or anything else. So, dunno.
You missed my question, too.
This, so much. Glad I'm not alone on thinking that.
If it was, do you think someone was purposefully avoiding to be at the top?
Because, the first thing that comes to mind is, my bet my Launch. Huh.
Then LP, turms and jman all being more quiet than usual.
Ok, so. This is the second item that redirects stuff, how possible is it that there're more items/PRs like that?
I know "Bastard" and all but, still.
Could you explain a bit more, Donna? Thank you.
turmoil7, sorry if you explained this somewhere and I missed it, but did you receive a notification indicating your action failed?
Let's see these Launch posts now.
Either teal or a similar shade. Which always makes me wonder, why do I even use that red Anna avatar at all.
What about you? Maybe answer when the spell is broken though.
Ouch, Aeleus. Gonna miss you here! Promise I'll do my best to make it to D5. But Box Peek is an intense sport so no idea if I'll do alright, though
Bonds!
For real, wee?
You know what I meant.
Hope you feel better, Chuggs!
Went back and checked since I wasn't sure either;
Just to be clear, I didn't mean Faddy's theory wasn't too odd, I meant that it was something I could see town!Faddy saying.
Finally, the "defense" is not direct because despite my worries, I didn't like Faddy's moves either;
Could you expand on this, please? Going by numbers alone I'd agree, but from my perspective, knowing that Ninthorn/Reki/turmoil wagons were T/T/?, I wouldn't be surprised if that EoD wasn't too exhausting for meanies and, as such, they'd be in a good shape to chime in on the night too.
Thinking about it because, really active/intense days sometimes mean that open nights are quiet due to exhausted town. This time it was relatively lively, but it could be due to the roster size or anything else. So, dunno.
You missed my question, too.
This, so much. Glad I'm not alone on thinking that.
If it was, do you think someone was purposefully avoiding to be at the top?
Because, the first thing that comes to mind is, my bet my Launch. Huh.
Then LP, turms and jman all being more quiet than usual.
Ok, so. This is the second item that redirects stuff, how possible is it that there're more items/PRs like that?
I know "Bastard" and all but, still.
Could you explain a bit more, Donna? Thank you.
turmoil7, sorry if you explained this somewhere and I missed it, but did you receive a notification indicating your action failed?
Let's see these Launch posts now.
My role can coexist with ATP's because it makes zero sense in the context of a regular game.
no worries~
Despite the fact me and fat4all have been in games since (at least I'm pretty sure we have XD) that I always keep thinking back to our first game together and my first game overall when we were scum buddies haha.
So my reasoning for voting him at all would be because he reminds me of back then ^^; even though a small voice in my head is telling me he has always been that way as town?
does that make sense?
hmmmmmmm
I am having A Thought. Let me get off mobile in a few and I'll explain.
But it doesn't create three alive townies. There's always room for doubt - but what if we picked the wrong one? What if one was scum? etc. - but this is linked to the thing I had above so hang on.
I don't yet fully believe that it was a scum thing but lets play with the thought. Jman is a really good observation to make but I don't know if anyone else was uncharacteristically silent. One could accuse Blarg and Maol just because they were the next two in line. And Launch is suspicious as well with that bet of his. You too are a bit suspicious because you accepted Launch's bet.
When it comes to the items, I 1st dreaded that this game was filled with redirecting nonsense. Today I am worried if the nonsense comes in layers: it'd be really funny to put a bunch of redirectors in a game mostly filled with vanillas.
Mafiera and The Mansion were games with weird day modifiers like this one that weren't controlled by scum(although we had to vote for the next modifier in those). I suspect this game is heavily influenced by those. In any case, scum being able to set the rules for the day, even if for a single day, is unlikely imho. Even more if it leads to them directly or indirectly having an undue influence in the lunch pool. Remember the game has to have some resemble of balance.
Yeah but we should ignore [perfectly reasonable concern] because Geno
Yeah but we should ignore [perfectly reasonable concern] because Geno
Just wanted to quickly point out; I was the one that made the bet. I look worse there.
The Reki bet thing is actually interesting now in context of the easy update. I know it didn't stick but knowing the Top 4 posters were thrown into the Thunderdome and that typically you would end up near the top of posters is maybe worth a look. I don't think scum!Reki would want to limit you if they are the ones who did the update, I don't see why they would necessarily want you to be below the threshold unless you're both teammates but I find that unlikely. I could see scum!Launch initially taking the bet to have an excuse not to be among the top posters but then again you did cancel out of it, although in the context of the easy update that could look like earning some town cred. Despite it being relatively decent advice, scum!Aeleus probably would have wanted you to cancel the bet to get more people involved with the top posters to maybe give some teammates some post cushion.
I missed this post, but you might be overthinking it. We are working with assumptions here, and we're not going to know for sure that all four of those players are town until much later in the game if at all. We are always going to have lingering doubts, so the idea that scum has screwed themselves is not something they need to contend with at any serious level. Or, in other words, it's all WIFOM.
Easy Update is an attempt by scum to hit back at town hard for the loss of Faddy and equalize as quickly as possible imo, which is why I'm suggesting we take more than just our reads into consideration when placing a vote today.
Oh, so you did. I just looked at the red command and didn't realize that it was in response to your post. Yeah, I skim things a lot.
Monkey, can I ask if you think there's anything strange with this exchange?
I'd be concerned about the idea if I was scum. When the debate about the ability and whether or not we should use it would happen, I'd look at the players that would get thunderdomed and pick up that they all are quite town read. I'd be worried about how this then could backfire on some later day when someone makes the argument that [Name] can't be scum, [name] was in the Towndome! The chance that this could happen would bother me if all of the four to be domed were town. The whole day is a gigantic troll day anyway, the thunderdome is just a single part of the mess. Was this all created by a single role? Is it just a coincidence that the thunderdome happens on the same day when the other mess happens? Is this a game of vanilla versus trolls, with items!? I don't think it is certain that this is a scum ability but I can see myself being wrong about this too.
Was thinking of this while reading your post, but, question. How can you tell Blarg wasn't holding back? You said you can't identify a conscious effort, but that doesn't make the opposite true either. Like, he could make either 120 or 180 posts full of GIFs and one good joke every once in a while, and I wouldn't be able to tell if he was holding back or not.
Does Maol usually make it to top 4? Can't recall, been a while since I've played with him.
Aeleus didn't throw shade at me - except for that "anti-town" comment I guess - while Faddy timidly did, even before we knew of the Lovers. What do you make of that?
wee suspected both me and A too. That'd be a quick way for them to get on wee's good side, imo.
They went for the "I can see the thought process for the bet." instead. Why?
This works as an explanation, yeah.
Thanks!
Anything in particular that makes you think back? Asking for specific comments or things in his play.
Just a reminder; when I first proposed it, Launch laughed it out. Seemed like a genuine gut-reaction to me.
Why were you upset about LP dying if 2 hours - give or take - before you were told he was not Elyse and, as such, your chat was never going to happen?
The kill didn't interfere with your stuff. At all.
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah!
Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!
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Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
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Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah!
Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!
Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
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Gah!
Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
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Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
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Gah!Gah! Gah! Gah!Gah!Gah!
I would say maol was in the top 4 last game for what it's worth
Something I did not address that I saw mentioned - who a possible arsonist might be. I'm kind of feeling like Chugg doing the bets could be, but I don't feel super strongly about that.
Let me throw a theory out, as well: If the arsonist presumably douses at night and no one has come forward, could LP have been doused? An arsonist might have seen LP as a player who would survive longer because he's a low activity player and did not expect them to be killed last night.
Let me throw a theory out, as well: If the arsonist presumably douses at night and no one has come forward, could LP have been doused? An arsonist might have seen LP as a player who would survive longer because he's a low activity player and did not expect them to be killed last night.
That's a fair point. I couldn't see anything one way or the other is my assessment, but I defer back to the read that Blarg is reading like town!Blarg.
He certainly can. I think he was a high poster in Horror Movie; not sure about Transistor or Mario atm.
oh my god lmao
I found it funny is all.
Maol's said several things that could look very bad if he's scum and just unfortunate coincidence if he's not, though.
I haven't caught up fully on the last two pages yet and I have some house stuff to deal with so gimme a bit and I'll be back.
I think it's highly possible. What I'm thinking at the moment is that the person with the least number of posts is dead, and now 1 of the person with the most posts will be killed because of the ⚡THUNDERDOME⚡ Pretty sure it might have been an item used by Scum. The lightning cardboard cutout? An item they started with?
It is really hard for me to explain, he seems easygoing or joking to me right now which just gives me a flashback to then, but I admit that isn't much to go on and it is probably nothing more than #gutfeels from me haha ^^; it is why I said it feels bad because it's not really a great reason to want to vote for him.
Ahh ;___;
I need to try and focus on the now rather than get distracted by my past thoughts since I have been wrong with them previously.
ok for all the people defaulting to killing the vanilla because this is a scum power and none of them would be in the top 4
isn't the better play just saying for today maybe this is just a mechanics thing and going for your top scum read and revaluating everything tomorrow?
isn't the better play just saying for today maybe this is just a mechanics thing and going for your top scum read and revaluating everything tomorrow?
Fair enough.
QUOTE="Conditional-Pancakes, post: 48801115, member: 73066"]
I think it's highly possible. What I'm thinking at the moment is that the person with the least number of posts is dead, and now 1 of the person with the most posts will be killed because of the ⚡THUNDERDOME⚡ Pretty sure it might have been an item used by Scum. The lightning cardboard cutout? An item they started with?
[/QUOTE]
If it's an item, I don't think it would replace a scum NK. Even bastard has its limits, I think. A scum power could replace the NK, though, and maybe that's the cost of using it - that their NK is set to the lowest poster.
Just gonna fix that quote right quick...
If it's an item, I don't think it would replace a scum NK. Even bastard has its limits, I think. A scum power could replace the NK, though, and maybe that's the cost of using it - that their NK is set to the lowest poster.
How do you suppose this would've happened? Scum start with extra cash? Scum can move money within scum chat?
I guess right now everything is still possible. Even maybe stealing from the store?
Yes, that's correct. After having made a response to faddy's death that made Monkey at least think I was claiming vig, I told someone I thought was scum that I could shoot them. During the night, while scum could still decide whom to kill.
Better to die as gossip than vig with good aim and a [hypothetical] shot left.
A standard usage of town gossip for other town roles. When aeleus chose not to, it didn't affect my read much. If town, they don't town read me, although....they seemed to? Earlier? Or, if scum, they didn't want to commit to a fake claim so early.
Not with a scum read, I'm not quite that good at misdirection.
Fair enough, we worked it out.
It absolutely is NOT.
When you consistently mentioned being real life busy, I got the hell off your back, and I haven't been bugging you to show up since. Saying "only mafia, no life" is always and forever purely a joke. I was expecting you might have to sub out due to the difficulty of keeping up with a sizable game, and I hope we play together again and that your life is good.
My read of post CONTENT remains. Being an arse is, yes, a part of mafia. I still ❤ you even If you're scum this game. Be well!
Fanto keeps doing it to me, it feels like a game theme at this point. Truly I don't remember the question, pleaes ask again and I'll cooperate.