I think at this point, it's clear to me that I'm wasting my time pushing for a malus vote. If that's the case, I'll have to consider the alternatives.
Let's say that I've been off-track with Febe/Malus. That would mean scum were definitely stacking on Zipped in D1. Chuggs placed his meta vote for Hedin at the start of the game, but didn't take long to move it to Zipped, being the next to vote for him after Hedin. Would scum!Chuggs be willing to place a bus vote for Zipped that quickly? Going the other way, Zipped came out against Melon and Chuggs and voted accordingly - first for Melon, then changing for Chuggs. He argued that both were trying to deflect his suggestions. By that time, Zipped had five votes on him, so is it possible that Zipped was looking for distance in case he was hammered? However, Nin then withdrew his vote - he would later re-cast his vote for Chuggs, which Zipped followed up. To me, that feels more like Zipped was hoping for an opportunistic train to get rid of someone who had questioned him, rather than a bus. The vote certainly couldn't have been co-ordinated, since Nin was town.
After that, Sneeks asked if anyone would be interested in moving from Zipped to Hedin. Febe was OK with his Zipped vote, while Donnie was open to moving his vote to Chuggs, who he thought might be linked to Hedin, depending on whether votes stayed on Chuggs. Lest I get accused of actively misinterpreting him, here's the full quote again:
I see Chuggs and Hedin linked enough by the same logic that I would move from where I am, but mostly because there's votes on both. Playing the numbers game, I would be supporting town by larger than just a potential majority of 4 on Zipped (if that's where scum votes are pooled). If they're pooled on Hedin, then the extra votes on Chuggs at least tell me more of town is confident this is the way we should go and it's not just a half and half between town and scum.
That's really the grounds I would move on. I've felt confident for awhile Zipped's flip either way would tell us the most about the day's discourse but I want to support the team and keep the team as in control as possible over mafia. So I would move as long as the votes that are on Chuggs, stay on Chuggs. If the people on Chuggs move over anyway than its back to being a wash between the two and I'm not sure I see the point in moving then.
Hopefully that all makes sense.
Twenty minutes later, he votes for Hedin to "support the majority of town" - his words (post 289), even though nobody else had voted for Hedin in that time. (The active voters on Hedin at the time, incidentally, were Febe, myself and Sawneeks.) Sparks would later place the final vote for Hedin, bringing him to hammer point. As Hedin observed:
I was finding it somewhat interesting that I was 1 away from majority for over 12 hours and no one hammered (I thought about it myself just to move things along but town wouldn't have gotten the full info from that). EIther scum was afraid to put the hammer down or they were already mostly on me.
The five active votes came from:
- Fireblend
- Myself
- Sawneeks
- Donnie
- Sparks
We know that Sneeks and Sparks were town, and I at least know that I'm town, even if there isn't much agreement with me on that one. That would leave Febe and Donnie as the unknowns. Was Hedin right about scum stacking on him at that point? Donnie was first to withdraw his vote, citing that he wanted the interactions between Zipped and Hedin to be addressed. Sneeks then moved to Zipped. HP had voted for Zipped much earlier and stayed there, feeling that Zipped had been trying to influence the reaction to ATP's kill. Following Sneeks's move, Melon then voted for Zipped before Donnie hammered him.
At least one of the votes on Zipped at the end of D1 had to come from scum, and if malus is town, both of his team-mates must have bussed him. That would limit the pool to Chuggs, HP, Melon and Donnie. In that situation, I'd expect one of them to have laid down an early vote, while the other joined them once it looked as though Zipped's cover was blown. Timing-wise, that would imply the initial vote came from Chuggs or HP, while the credibility vote came from Melon or Donnie. Both of the latter had already voted for a player we now know to be town - Melon on Sparks, Donnie on Hedin. Assuming that Zipped's vote for Chuggs was opportunistic, then HP's vote could come into question. As things stood, both Donnie and Melon's votes could also be suspect.
Going into D2, the general mindset was that Sparks was a likely candidate - there had been enough doubt in the room about him in D1, but only Melon voted for him. Sneeks initially voted for Nin, before Hedin voted for Sparks and Sawneeks switched to join him - Hedin was then killed and the votes were reset. Following that, Sparks was turboed, the order of voting being myself, Sawneeks, Chuggs, Melon and Donnie. Sneeks and Melon's votes were consistent with their willingness to take out Sparks in D1, while Chuggs was growing dubious of Sparks and Febe. Febe didn't cast a vote, but didn't object to voting for Sparks:
I agree it makes the most sense to flip people on the Hedin train though, and Sparks is a good enough choice. He did seem to be defensive of Zipped.
HP, although around to post, was off the vote completely. That said, I don't think it's entirely fair to hold that against him in light of an early-day turbo. Again, Melon and Donnie came in with the last couple of votes. At around the time of the Hedin kill - given the timing, it would have been written before the kill - Donnie gave his justification for the switch back to Zipped on D1:
I'll take that. I honestly feel vindicated by the result, I only switched to Hedin in an attempt to be pragmatic and benefit town to move on. The switch had caveats and I pulled my Hedin vote as soon as I noticed the oddity with the numbers. I feel like I was on track with Zipped from very early on, however I think it's prudent to come into day two with an open mind on everyone again even as we begin to draft up our list of reads and to that end, I'm totally okay with being under any level of scrutiny.
In D3, a few options arose. Melon opened by going after Febe, I aired my doubts about Donnie. The train for Donnie didn't really take off, although Melon and Febe followed my vote for him. In the end, Febe reached hammer point - however, this was stopped when Nin typoed his vote. Let's go over the votes for Febe in order:
- Melon - was later moved to Donnie.
- Sawneeks - moved to Nin after the typo.
- Donnie - moved to Nin after the typo.
- Chuggs - moved to Nin after the typo.
- Melon - moving back from Donnie before the typo.
- Myself - switching from Donnie after the typo.
- Nin, after his typo.
HP was ready to vote at hammer point, but wanted to hear from Nin first. After the typo, Melon backed Nin up, feeling that it was an honest mistake, while I thought Febe would be a more informative flip and Nin's vote was self-preservation. This is the point where I started to feel more certain about Febe. To me, the train on Nin felt like an opportunistic swerve towards a mis-kill, hence I thought Febe was being defended.
D4 is still fairly recent, so we know how that turned out. Sawneeks and I were pitted against each other - at least that's how the day turned out. Malus led the move towards Sneeks, followed by Donnie and Chuggs. Prior to that, I'd been the prime suspect, with the only vote for Sneeks coming from Melon.
I'm going to be very honest, here - I came into this write-up expecting to confirm how I felt about Donnie. Having gone back over the votes, though, it's not Donnie that sticks out to me now - it's Melon. On both of those first two days, it was Melon and Donnie who cast the last two votes. Would they be so cocky as to act together? That seems unlikely, so I can't see them as team-mates. What really hit me, though was the timing of post 381 on D2, where Donnie explained his voting on D1 in detail. It's a long post and must have taken some time to write - and it was posted just two minutes after Hedin was killed. Why the hell would Donnie go to all that time to write a big long post like that, involving his take on the Hedin situation, if he knew that the kill was right about to go through? OK, it
could have been a big bluff, but I find it more likely that if Donnie were scum, either he would have put the post up well before submitting the kill, or put a different post entirely up after the kill to specifically shade the Hedin posters. But he didn't - he posted right as the kill went through, and if he were scum, he'd have been expecting Natiko's modpost and could have planned for it.
So if that casts Donnie in a town light, it's hard for me to see Melon in the same way. The vote for Donnie could have been on the back of mine in the hope that the train might take off, and that push against Sawneeks yesterday may have been because she saw her as a much bigger threat than me - especially if she felt that I was in her pocket. The pushes against Sparks would certainly look different, and her defence of Nin could be taken as a play to get town credit. Was she intentionally staying away from the Hedin train on D1 and using Sparks as cover, and were she and Zipped intentionally distancing themselves?
With all that said, then, I think I have to move to Melon now.
VOTE: Melonrabbit
Let me make it clear - I still don't know what to make of malus, and if Melon's scum, I wouldn't rule out looking at HP. But since I'm clearly fighting a losing battle pushing for malus now, this strikes me as the next best measure. Take it as you will.