Think it had any chance to beating PS4 Pro numbers for this week?
Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2017 (Oct 23 - Oct 29)
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Dragon Quest Rivals tops 7 million downloads... 5 days after release.
https://gematsu.com/2017/11/dragon-quest-rivals-tops-seven-million-downloads
https://gematsu.com/2017/11/dragon-quest-rivals-tops-seven-million-downloads
I mean From soft haven't announced anything for anything and were on the list of partners. For all we know they were already on board.
Considering mainline games are still in the 3-4m range, I'd be surprised if DQ12 wasn't on dedicated platforms at all.
Now, spin-offs, on the other hand...
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90k-300k,I think the game will receive good receptions and have long legsOk guys, i heard your call, passion, again :p
PREDICTIONS
XENOBLADE 2 SWITCH, FIRST WEEK SALES, 2017 (Nov 27 - Dec 3) AND END OF YEAR, 2017 (Dec 25 - Dec 31)
CaviarMeths: 104.000 - 178.000
Charamiwa: 95.000 - 140.000
DarkDetective: 75.000 - 130.000
Deku: 95.000 - 165.000
Elfteiroh: 118.000 -165.000
Gotdatmoney: 120.000 - ?
Grads: 100.000 - 170.000
Herb Alpert: 135.000 - 245.000
ika: 115.000 - 250.000
ILikeFeet: 75.000 - 120.000
James: 205.000 - 282.000
JamesRainbowBoy: 80.000 - 115.000
Jonno394: 60.000 - 90.000
Kanann: 120.000 - 150.000
Kumikomical: 85.000 - ?
KuwabaraTheMan: 155.000 - 235.000
Lizardus: 92.339 - 152.339
LordKano: 120.000 - 160.000
MANUELF: 110.000 - 160.000
Momo: 97.000 - 211.000
Qubie: 100.000 - 200.000
rzmunch: 140.000 - 200.000
SemRockWel: 75.000 - 120.000
SinCityAssassin: 95.000 - 185.000
sinonobu: 90.000 - 199.000
UmbriaPauly: 132.000 - 210.000
Umibozu: 75.000 - 135.000
Zakeryo: 80.000 - 120.000
Zedark: 110.000 - 165.000
DLC will keep people from reselling if they like the game.
However I caution everyone who revise upwards too much, the steep SKU price (for a console game) works against it in JP.
Even though it is technically cheaper than buy the maximum sized in game currency twice in most Japanese mobage.
However I caution everyone who revise upwards too much, the steep SKU price (for a console game) works against it in JP.
Even though it is technically cheaper than buy the maximum sized in game currency twice in most Japanese mobage.
While Nintendo fans don't usually pay that expensive of price, it is normal for RPGs to cost that much, so it may just show how must of the RPG crowd has the Switch.
Preorders should have a nice bump after this direct, it was seemingly well received there.
DLCs might help with the legs but I don't expect much on that side.
DLCs might help with the legs but I don't expect much on that side.
Or the game is expensive to make.
I gotta quantify it. I just feel the Japanese Ninty crowd has not been used to pay such high prices for sometime now. Especially, coming in from 3DS and Wii U, which didn't get many large RPGs outside the XB games
I don't know how they will react to this price
I think I may not have said that clearly. I think it was expensive to make, long complex RPGs tend to get expensive. I am just saying, that since it does cost more than your average game on a Nintendo system, we may be able to start to infer the upper limits of buying habits on the system, and how much of an interest players of long console RPGs have in playing those games on the Switch. I don't mean to claim that this is some sort or ruse by Nintendo.
I'm a lot more interested in Xenoblade 2 after the Direct, but I'm not sure how it'll impact sales on a bigger scale. I stand by my current prediction.
Er I don't mean that at all. Sorry about the misunderstanding that I might have caused.
I'd like to revise my predictions:Ok guys, i heard your call, passion, again :p
PREDICTIONS
XENOBLADE 2 SWITCH, FIRST WEEK SALES, 2017 (Nov 27 - Dec 3) AND END OF YEAR, 2017 (Dec 25 - Dec 31)
CaviarMeths: 104.000 - 178.000
Charamiwa: 95.000 - 140.000
DarkDetective: 75.000 - 130.000
Deku: 95.000 - 165.000
Elfteiroh: 118.000 -165.000
Gotdatmoney: 120.000 - ?
Grads: 100.000 - 170.000
Herb Alpert: 135.000 - 245.000
ika: 115.000 - 250.000
ILikeFeet: 75.000 - 120.000
James: 205.000 - 282.000
JamesRainbowBoy: 80.000 - 115.000
Jonno394: 60.000 - 90.000
Kanann: 120.000 - 150.000
Kumikomical: 85.000 - ?
KuwabaraTheMan: 155.000 - 235.000
Lizardus: 92.339 - 152.339
LordKano: 120.000 - 160.000
MANUELF: 110.000 - 160.000
Momo: 97.000 - 211.000
Qubie: 100.000 - 200.000
rzmunch: 140.000 - 200.000
SemRockWel: 75.000 - 120.000
SinCityAssassin: 95.000 - 185.000
sinonobu: 90.000 - 199.000
UmbriaPauly: 132.000 - 210.000
Umibozu: 75.000 - 135.000
Zakeryo: 80.000 - 120.000
Zedark: 110.000 - 165.000
First week: 130k
End of 2017: 210k
The direct did its job in hyping up the story and the landscapes/cities (i.e. showing the scope of the environments), so I think it will do slightly better than I first predicted. Moreover, the season pass will give the game slightly better legs in my opinion. The gameplay dissertation remains slightly hard to understand, but I think that, all in all, the direct succeeded in selling the game.
France:
Super Mario Odyssey, first week (3 days): ~ 115k (without bundles)
Super Mario 3d World, 2013 Nov 29 to Dec 31 : 80k
Zelda BOTW Switch, first week (3 days): 97k (Wii U version: 33k)
(from an another source: 96k https://twitter.com/W_Chloe/status/839129148970913793 )
Assassin's Creed Origins, 5 days: 145k (without bundles and without digital)
Assassin's Creed Syndicate, 12 days: 95k
Assassin's Creed Unity: 135k
Assassin's Creed 4: 155k
Assassin's Creed 3 (PS3/360): 250k
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...s-et-super-mario-odyssey_5211370_4408996.html
Note that for the journalists william Audureau and Oscar Lemaire, March 3 to October 29 = six months :p
"En France, le jeu s'est écoulé à environ 115 000 exemplaires au lancement, un chiffre impressionnant pour une console vieille de six mois seulement."
"In France, the game (SMO) was sold at around 115,000 copies at launch, an impressive figure for a six-month-old console."
Super Mario Odyssey, first week (3 days): ~ 115k (without bundles)
Super Mario 3d World, 2013 Nov 29 to Dec 31 : 80k
Zelda BOTW Switch, first week (3 days): 97k (Wii U version: 33k)
(from an another source: 96k https://twitter.com/W_Chloe/status/839129148970913793 )
Assassin's Creed Origins, 5 days: 145k (without bundles and without digital)
Assassin's Creed Syndicate, 12 days: 95k
Assassin's Creed Unity: 135k
Assassin's Creed 4: 155k
Assassin's Creed 3 (PS3/360): 250k
http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/articl...s-et-super-mario-odyssey_5211370_4408996.html
Note that for the journalists william Audureau and Oscar Lemaire, March 3 to October 29 = six months :p
"En France, le jeu s'est écoulé à environ 115 000 exemplaires au lancement, un chiffre impressionnant pour une console vieille de six mois seulement."
"In France, the game (SMO) was sold at around 115,000 copies at launch, an impressive figure for a six-month-old console."
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Earlier it sounded to me like you were saying that it was a bad idea to have to extra studios, but now i take it that you mean more in general that Polyphony Digital can do things differently in the developement process? If so, thats fair enough. Maybe they could do something to be more efficient than what they are today, thats definitelly not impossible i think.
I'll close "PREDICTIONS: TOTAL SALES OF SUPER MARIO ODYSSEY AT THE END OF THE YEAR IN JAPAN, 2017 (Dec 25 - Dec 31)" tomorrow, just before Media-Create figures.
Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2017 (Oct 23 - Oct 29)
Media Create Sales: Week 43, 2017 (Oct 23 - Oct 29)
All recent news considered, it does seem Bamco was more or less on-board but not expecting the speed at which the Switch set its fortunes. There's no way they can already talk about software (some of which seems scheduled for the near future and Zhuge's hint lead to expectation of even more software on the horizon) and resource moving if they hadn't already had pipelines set-up. They now have to reposition some software and we may see further SKUs announced for far-off projects.
That basically means Capcom is the only one who completely misread the market. Their recent report/PR is evidence enough of that, if they had *any* software in the near future they'd have mentioned it like Bamco. So, they basically have zilch.
That basically means Capcom is the only one who completely misread the market. Their recent report/PR is evidence enough of that, if they had *any* software in the near future they'd have mentioned it like Bamco. So, they basically have zilch.
I'm not sure that's actually necessary given I'm pretty certain thread Final Fantasy: Brave Exvius will notably exceed the lifetime revenue (and by far profitability) of Final Fantasy XV.
Dragon Quest of the Stars is probably their entry most along those lines at the moment (in terms of proximity to the traditional game style), though I could imagine something that takes it even further.
I remember back in the NX days I believe Serkan Toto said that multiple Bamco games were in the works for the NX launch, including a Smash port. Obviously that didn't quite pan out but I wouldn't be surprised if he heard about these games that they actually had planned, and maybe they were just delayed. He does have a fairly good track record after all. So yeah, I think it's very likely Bamco was there with serious support planned early on.
Level 5 also seems to have missed the boat, but like others have said a big part of that is that their primary demographic is children and the Switch is a bit too pricey for their games to sell all that well, at least at this point. So yeah, it looks like Capcom is really the main company who completely misread this. Unless they have a lot of support planned and are being horrible about their communication.
The Xeno Series never was the biggest hit in Japan. But if X managed to launch with 85.000 on the Wii U in Japan, I predict a start of Xenoblade Chronicles 2 of at least 120.000 and 170.000 Copies till the end of the year.
Capcom is destroying itself since years. Why? Because incompetent producers and a greedy CEO are managing this company. On recent consoles, they delivered one bomb after another. Funny enough, Ultimate Street Fighter sold way beyond their expectations on the Switch while Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite vanished in the fog of Silent Hill. The game was one hell of a bomb in the japanese charts and an even bigger bomb than Street Fighter V. Even Resident Evil VII is selling behind their high expectations. Wouldn't wonder if they will someday go the same way Konami did.
Capcom is destroying itself since years. Why? Because incompetent producers and a greedy CEO are managing this company. On recent consoles, they delivered one bomb after another. Funny enough, Ultimate Street Fighter sold way beyond their expectations on the Switch while Marvel vs. Capcom: Infinite vanished in the fog of Silent Hill. The game was one hell of a bomb in the japanese charts and an even bigger bomb than Street Fighter V. Even Resident Evil VII is selling behind their high expectations. Wouldn't wonder if they will someday go the same way Konami did.
I figure we'd eventually start to see some degree of convergence on mobile and consoles. We're already seeing Level 5 toying around with the idea, and I can see more of it in time.
But that said, there's definitely a conflict of consumption habits between the two form-factors that may just make this a sort of fool's errand.
silpheed-mcd
My predictions
Super Mario Odyssey sales by end of Calendar Year:
1.316.000
______
Xenoblade Chronicles 2:
First Week: 112k
End of Calendar Year: 174k
My predictions
Super Mario Odyssey sales by end of Calendar Year:
1.316.000
______
Xenoblade Chronicles 2:
First Week: 112k
End of Calendar Year: 174k
I suspect we would be more likely to see mobile games on consoles than console games on mobile, if that makes sense.
Mind, Xenoblade sure is eager to bring as many mobile mechanics to its newest game as possible, but I would still expect other elements to be pulled back notably for a more quickly digestible mobile entry in the series.
Like with Brave Exvius, most missions are just battles, whereas the explorable areas are optional and infrequent. The towns also let you skip right past them after watching the main cutscenes, and then go back when you have more free time to sit around exploring for 10+ minutes.
Yes, Xeno does have an odd amount of gacha-like additions, hah.
But I understand you, yes. Mobile to console seems like a viable pathway (and in fact we've seen some of it on Switch already with the music games and Implosion).
I think the idea of releasing console games are premium mobile games is a bit of a dead end. Premium mobile games are not worth it, I think Super Mario Run decisively proved that.
Matsuda said he wanted to go that path for Square Enix games but I don't think anything has happened in that realm for quite a while now.
Matsuda said he wanted to go that path for Square Enix games but I don't think anything has happened in that realm for quite a while now.
We don't see RPGs like Xenoblade 2 anymore that's why i'm pretty confident it will be a sleeper hit and will end up as the best selling game of the series by the end of the year.
FW 102k
2017 180k
FW 102k
2017 180k
It does. In Japan the big gaming audience is on mobile, the audience for dedicated gaming devices primarily focuses on portables. The feasible movement for consumers is going from mobile to consoles, and I expect that to be easier to achieve with a portable instead a home console as target. To be honest I'm surprised we haven't seen any brand combining both yet, have free gacha driven mobile games that allows payers to affect a world playable on a console (think user generated content).
What is this Zhuge Hint you mentioned?
There are two ways to see what they are trying to do with the rare blade mechanic, and some of the other mobile-like components (like sending non active blades out in missions, individual story events for blades). The two possibilities are
1) Takahashi and Nintendo wants to provide a mobage-like experience for console audience without making consumers pay to roll like they do in gacha systems. It could a an experimental approach to try to hybridize the console game in Japan. GaaS can be done via DLC. Rare Blade DLC hints at that, being a GaaS delivery method this is more west-friendly, though it isn't sold alone.
The issue is that Puzzle and Dora 3DS first and second game performance gap showed that significant number of consumers want to feel the rush of having something at stake for gacha aka gambling mecahnics....instead of just of RNG gacha mechanics. Also P2W acts as a kind of gating system to prevent people from clearing content quickly.
2) This is laying the groundwork for a Xenoblade gacha game in the future. Though given Ninty's low mobile output rate, I expect this to come after Zelda or even Mario Party/Mario Kart gets its mobage.
(2) is more likely, (1) would be very ambitious though. As I said in my old post, Japan has not have many innovations on the SP RPG GaaS model.
The challenge for JP devs trying this is that now that the industry is quite export oriented, Japanese GaaS methods (gacha, mtx, western equivalent lootboxes) are not widely accepted..especially in the SP RPG space where the player base seems more suspicious of mtx, than say players of AAA games or MP games.
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Presumably he's referring to this. Zhuge makes a few more remarks below this particular post:
https://www.resetera.com/posts/657358/
Xenoblade prediction:
107k FW
180k 2017 total
Ok guys, i heard your call, passion, again :p
PREDICTIONS
XENOBLADE 2 SWITCH, FIRST WEEK SALES, 2017 (Nov 27 - Dec 3) AND END OF YEAR, 2017 (Dec 25 - Dec 31)
Alblowi: 112.000 - 212.000
CaviarMeths: 104.000 - 178.000
CeroMiedo: 90.000 - 300.000
Charamiwa: 95.000 - 140.000
DarkDetective: 75.000 - 130.000
Deku: 95.000 - 165.000
Elfteiroh: 118.000 -165.000
Gotdatmoney: 120.000 - ?
Grads: 100.000 - 170.000
Herb Alpert: 135.000 - 245.000
ika: 115.000 - 250.000
ILikeFeet: 75.000 - 120.000
James: 205.000 - 282.000
JamesRainbowBoy: 80.000 - 115.000
Jonno394: 60.000 - 90.000
Kanann: 120.000 - 150.000
Kumikomical: 85.000 - ?
KuwabaraTheMan: 155.000 - 235.000
Lizardus: 92.339 - 152.339
LordKano: 120.000 - 160.000
MANUELF: 110.000 - 160.000
Momo: 97.000 - 211.000
Nintendojitsu: 135.000 - ?
Qubie: 100.000 - 200.000
rzmunch: 140.000 - 200.000
SemRockWel: 75.000 - 120.000
SinCityAssassin: 95.000 - 185.000
sinonobu: 90.000 - 199.000
UmbriaPauly: 132.000 - 210.000
Umibozu: 75.000 - 135.000
Zakeryo: 80.000 - 120.000
Zedark: 110.000 - 165.000 (rectified: 130.000 - 210.000)
Apparently mine got lost in the process...
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 prediction:
220K FW, 460K 2017
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