Who's Going to Win South Carolina?

  • Joe Biden

    Votes: 585 39.2%
  • Bernie Sanders

    Votes: 853 57.2%
  • Elizabeth Warren

    Votes: 24 1.6%
  • Pete Buttigieg

    Votes: 7 0.5%
  • THE KLOBBERER

    Votes: 16 1.1%
  • Tom Steyer

    Votes: 6 0.4%

  • Total voters
    1,491
  • Poll closed .
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FF Seraphim

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Oct 26, 2017
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Here is Trump tweeting out support for gay people. He's done this multiple times. I'm sorry, but it's not a line of attack that makes sense to come directly from him. Not denying that it would be a huge issue in the campaign.


He can say whatever he wants. look at his actions and who this man hires. Words mean nothing to Trump
 

danm999

Member
Oct 29, 2017
17,353
Sydney
IMO Trump will absolutely hit Pete on being gay, then simultaneously bemoan that it's sad the LGBTQ community has such a bad representative for their first candidate.
 

skullmuffins

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,456
Obama was called a socialist. Any Democrat will get called that. It's meaningless to anyone that votes D.
People keep saying this but I'm not convinced it is a good argument. Yes, voters are used to republicans calling literally every democrat a far-left socialist, but hardly any democrats self-identify as socialist. Republicans have also said democrats are "on the side of the terrorists" and voters are still OK with democrats, but I'm sure you will admit that it would go over poorly if a democratic candidate was on video praising ISIS. Do voters not care when they call Joe Biden a socialist because they think socialism is awesome, or do they not care because they know it's a hyperbolic political attack and Joe Biden is not actually a socialist? How does that change if you're running an ad attacking Bernie as a socialist using his own words?
 

ToddBonzalez

The Pyramids? That's nothing compared to RDR2
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Oct 27, 2017
15,530
It will come from him because it will rally his base and he is desperate to win. The motherfucker ordered the harassment and possible assassination of a goddamn US Ambassador and you think he won't tweet mean shit to his gay democratic opponent, when his literal life depends on it?


Edit: For politeness.
Agreed. We've seen time and time again that Trump has no concrete morals or values and will say whatever's convenient to him in the moment. If he thinks that he can get conservatives fired up by playing the homophobia card he'll absolutely do it.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
33,345
e02e5ffb5f980cd8262cf7f0ae00a4a9_press-x-to-doubt-memes-memesuper-la-noire-doubt-meme_419-238.png




Here is Trump tweeting out support for gay people. He's done this multiple times. I'm sorry, but it's not a line of attack that makes sense to come directly from him. Not denying that it would be a huge issue in the campaign.

Dude, Trump will absolutely say homophobic shit if Pete wins. Odds are that tweet was written by some staffer anyways.
 

Deleted member 4614

Oct 25, 2017
6,345
It will come from him because it will rally his base and he is desperate to win. The motherfucker ordered the harassment and possible assassination of a goddamn US Ambassador and you think he won't tweet mean shit to his gay democratic opponent, when his literal life depends on it?


Edit: For politeness.

I feel like what we're talking about might be shifting over several posts, so to ground it: no, I don't think Trump will attack Buttigieg for being gay. Even indirect references to it he might try (pansy) won't be effective due to military service.

Evangelical and Baptist Trump surrogates will go absolutely buck wild, however.
 
Oct 27, 2017
10,660
People keep saying this but I'm not convinced it is a good argument. Yes, voters are used to republicans calling literally every democrat a far-left socialist, but hardly any democrats self-identify as a socialist. Republicans have also said democrats are "on the side of the terrorists" and voters are still OK with democrats, but I'm sure you will admit that it would go over poorly if a democratic candidate was on video praising ISIS. Do voters not care when they call Joe Biden a socialist because they think socialism is awesome, or do they not care because they know it's a hyperbolic political attack and Joe Biden is not actually a socialist? How does that change if you're running an ad attacking Bernie as a socialist using his own words?
Democrat voters are not changing sides because of an attack ad. They might not vote at all if they don't feel motivated though.
 

Blue Skies

Banned
Mar 27, 2019
9,224
How do you "hit" someone for being gay?

like, who actually gets convinced about that besides already homophobic people who are most likely republicans already anyways?
 

Regulus Tera

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Oct 25, 2017
19,458
e02e5ffb5f980cd8262cf7f0ae00a4a9_press-x-to-doubt-memes-memesuper-la-noire-doubt-meme_419-238.png




Here is Trump tweeting out support for gay people. He's done this multiple times. I'm sorry, but it's not a line of attack that makes sense to come directly from him. Not denying that it would be a huge issue in the campaign.

When are you people gonna learn that Trump shows support for minorities only when it's politically convenient for him?
 

stew

Member
Dec 2, 2017
4,198
It would slip out of Trump's mouth. He's senile and is showing signs of dementia. It might not be a direct insult but he would imply it.
 
Oct 27, 2017
10,660
I feel like what we're talking about might be shifting over several posts, so to ground it: no, I don't think Trump will attack Buttigieg for being gay. Even indirect references to it he might try (pansy) won't be effective due to military service.

Evangelical and Baptist Trump surrogates will go absolutely buck wild, however.
it would be a first for trump to not attack someone for being different. I'm certain that a man who mocked a disabled person would go hog wild mocking a gay person.
 

Tiger Priest

Banned
Oct 24, 2017
1,120
New York, NY
BS way to attack his candidacy? Again - we are talking about Trump's GOP. They will absolutely attack the ever loving fuck out of him on both this and his lack of experience, and those attacks will land with the religiously inclined.

I absolutely do want progress. The people i've voted for in my adult life alone support that. But I grew up in urban hispanic and black communities, and I know how religious, democratic voters in rural states feel on this topic. In fact, there is a strong chance that there are pockets of voters who don't even know he's gay - it certainly took some Iowan voters by surprise. I've already overheard people in my orbit who have voted D for as long as I can remember (in a blue state no less!) say they wouldn't vote for Pete because hes gay.

Honestly, I feel like in a lot of left-leaning circles like here, we simply won't talk about the General Election optics of his sexuality cause we, of course, want to believe we live in a country that would absolutely vote for someone regardless of race or gender or sexuality. I want that to be the America I live in. But, unfortunately, we don't. And again - all the other candidates have shit they'll be hammered on, some more than others. But this particular issue is an untested one, and he's already in terrible trouble with latin & hispanic voters as is.

Boil it down and what you are saying is that we shouldn't nominate him because he is gay. That argument is pure homophobia. It's no better than saying that we shouldn't nominate Warren because she's a woman.
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
The 2016 Sanders campaign is what IGNITED the demsoc movement. AOC and Rashida Tlaib wouldn't even be in office if Bernie hadn't run. And if he didn't run this time, the progressive mantle would have been assumed by Warren, who is not a demsoc, and it's potency would have been diluted.

If Bernie wins, it will lead to the greatest expansion of socialist power in the US since the early 20th century. The DSA candidates are doing just fine at building their bench with local wins.
This is it.

There will be roadblocks, speed humps, failures. But Sanders has captured the zeitgeist after being ahead of his time for decades. It's time.
 

Tfritz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,537


Biden Flopping, Rush Getting Lung Cancer, and Miss Rae Jepsen releasing a new single? February is looking up folks.
 

GoldenEye 007

Roll Tide, Y'all!
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Oct 25, 2017
13,835
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Boil it down and what you are saying is that we shouldn't nominate him because he is gay. That argument is pure homophobia. It's no better than saying that we shouldn't nominate Warren because she's a woman.
Well we arguably shouldn't nominate him because he's a wet paper bag with a really bad record on minorities. He isn't sniffing the nomination without black support.

Him being gay is simply another thing that the electorate will unfortunately hold against him. But he'd be in the same overall position if he were straight.
This is it.

There will be roadblocks, speed humps, failures. But Sanders has captured the zeitgeist after being ahead of his time for decades. It's time.
He's definitely made progress. But you also have to keep 2018 in mind because a lot of those types of candidates lost in races while moderates cleaned up.
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791
trump will enable homophobia but obviously will not directly criticize pete's sexuality. its amazing to me how people's hatred of trump seems so imprecise and disconnect from exactly the kind of monster he is. if you have a coherent understand of trump's personality by now you would know he's very obviously not gonna be outright in saying pete being gay is bad or whatever.


then simultaneously bemoan that it's sad the LGBTQ community has such a bad representative for their first candidate.
this. he would do something like this more like
 

Deleted member 11046

User requested account closure
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Oct 27, 2017
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IMO Trump will absolutely hit Pete on being gay, then simultaneously bemoan that it's sad the LGBTQ community has such a bad representative for their first candidate.
This is EXACTLY what he would do. And he'd never let Pete live down his history on race in Indiana, while simultaneously parroting lies about his own contributions to Americans of color.

Trump, the GOP, the far right media machine et al would hammer Pete endlessly on race to depress black turnout while Russia would handle the shadow social media division campaigns. Buttigieg's actions as mayor are just the ammo they need to strip enthusiasm from the one damn group of voters who have always solidly backed Democrats.

He isn't the one.
 

GYODX

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,299
I still think Pete surging and absorbing Biden's support in the early states is best-case scenario for Bernie.

Pete is DOA with Black voters in SC and Super Tuesday states. The question is, will Black voters still back Biden by then after three consecutive losses? I guess that depends on whether they genuinely like Biden, or if it's a calculation about electability.
 

B-Dubs

That's some catch, that catch-22
General Manager
Oct 25, 2017
33,345
The 2016 Sanders campaign is what IGNITED the demsoc movement. AOC and Rashida Tlaib wouldn't even be in office if Bernie hadn't run. And if he didn't run this time, the progressive mantle would have been assumed by Warren, who is not a demsoc, and it's potency would have been diluted.

If Bernie wins, it will lead to the greatest expansion of socialist power in the US since the early 20th century. The DSA candidates are doing just fine at building their bench with local wins.
This is taking a lot away from Occupy. Without them, Bernie doesn't get his opening. That's what started it all: a bunch of protesters in some tents angry about getting screwed by the rich.
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,753
Norman, OK
This is EXACTLY what he would do. And he'd never let Pete live down his history on race in Indiana, while simultaneously parroting lies about his own contributions to Americans of color.

Trump, the GOP, the far right media machine et al would hammer Pete endlessly on race to depress black turnout while Russia would handle the shadow social media division campaigns. Buttigieg's actions as mayor are just the ammo they need to strip enthusiasm from the one damn group of voters who have always solidly backed Democrats.

He isn't the one.

And this doesn't even begin to cover the gross shit that will circulate 'unofficially' on social media.

EDIT: actually- you did cover that, LOL. But I don't think it'll just be Russia. GOP PAC's will circulate some gross shit all on their own.
 
Oct 25, 2017
11,226
Re: the electability of a socialist

Would be interesting to see what happens to the perception of socialism if someone like Bernie runs in the general and has a larger platform to counter the propaganda. He'd be up against decades of indoctrination, but could maybe chip away as he re-associates. Up 47% to 48%!

If America keeps talking itself out of even trying someone like Sanders then yeah that's not any better
 

Deleted member 11046

User requested account closure
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I feel like what we're talking about might be shifting over several posts, so to ground it: no, I don't think Trump will attack Buttigieg for being gay. Even indirect references to it he might try (pansy) won't be effective due to military service.

Evangelical and Baptist Trump surrogates will go absolutely buck wild, however.
Trump is the source of birtherism and he's attacked Obama relentlessly via that racist platform. Not his surrogates. Him.

You have no reason save for bias to suspect he wouldn't also tap into America's homophobia to wound Buttigieg given how easy and effective it would be. His freedom and power is on the line.




But this is all moot because Pete won't receive relevant amounts of support from black voters.
 

Deleted member 4614

Oct 25, 2017
6,345
I'm beginning to think you have absolutely no idea how Trump operates at all...

I have a pretty explicit idea actually. Trump's reelection campaign is going to be focused on telling minorities that they should be grateful for what he does for him. That's going to focus on African Americans, but it will also include LGBT if he can swing it. He's going to say things like "African American unemployment has never been lower" and "Thanks to me and my administration, LGBT hate is falling worldwide." It doesn't have to make sense, it's just what he does. He would attack Pete for having a funny face and no experience, and vaguely for being "weak" or "not tough" but not explicitly for being gay.
 

samoyed

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
15,191
This "will he/won't he attack Pete's gayness" is absolutely pointless. If Pete makes it past NH we will hear Trump call Pete some "funny" nickname on CNN. What he say will tell you, in that moment, what the GOP plan of attack is, if Pete doesn't make it out of NH, no one will care.
 

Tfritz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
13,537
donald trump is going to call pete a slur and cnn is going to have a panel discussing if it counts as bottomphobic or not
 

Prodigal Son

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,791
I have a pretty explicit idea actually. Trump's reelection campaign is going to be focused on telling minorities that they should be grateful for what he does for him. That's going to focus on African Americans, but it will also include LGBT if he can swing it. He's going to say things like "African American unemployment has never been lower" and "Thanks to me and my administration, LGBT hate is falling worldwide." It doesn't have to make sense, it's just what he does. He would attack Pete for having a funny face and no experience, and vaguely for being "weak" or "not tough" but not explicitly for being gay.
im having trouble imagining who is going to disagree with this

donald trump is going to call pete a slur and cnn is going to have a panel discussing if it counts as bottomphobic or not
im at least glad no one will dispute he is a bottom
 
Oct 25, 2017
4,753
Norman, OK
I have a pretty explicit idea actually. Trump's reelection campaign is going to be focused on telling minorities that they should be grateful for what he does for him. That's going to focus on African Americans, but it will also include LGBT if he can swing it. He's going to say things like "African American unemployment has never been lower" and "Thanks to me and my administration, LGBT hate is falling worldwide." It doesn't have to make sense, it's just what he does. He would attack Pete for having a funny face and no experience, and vaguely for being "weak" or "not tough" but not explicitly for being gay.

Trump doesn't have to attack Pete's sexuality directly- he's shown time and again that he knows how to turn a dog whistle into a megaphone.
 

sphagnum

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Oct 25, 2017
16,058
This is taking a lot away from Occupy. Without them, Bernie doesn't get his opening. That's what started it all: a bunch of protesters in some tents angry about getting screwed by the rich.

Occupy was when people started to break away from neoliberalism, but I would say that the five years after it were more of a muddled mess with activists branching out to various movements and forming alliances, but still remaining unsure of what the big strategy was to be. It was a period of foundation building, but Bernie 2016 was what took the burgeoning left and catalyzed it into an electoral weapon.
 

Deleted member 10551

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I still think Pete surging and absorbing Biden's support in the early states is best-case scenario for Bernie.

Pete is DOA with Black voters in SC and Super Tuesday states. The question is, will Black voters still back Biden by then after three consecutive losses? I guess that depends on whether they genuinely like Biden, or if it's a calculation about electability.

There's also the possibility they start backing Buttigieg and get him to 10-15% support. The big question is what happens if we get Bernie with a plurality, but Biden/Buttigieg camps who despise Bernie as a slim majority between them? That would be a potential party-splitter.
 
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