Is it a normal night or are tensions on edge?
Stay safe, hopefully nothing happens.
Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine
- Thread starter Forerunner
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Is it a normal night or are tensions on edge?
Stay safe, hopefully nothing happens.
Putin doesn't want NATO on that border -> invites NATO member to claim Western Ukraine
Uh huh. Sure checks out RT
That can't be real.
Why would Poland EVER even entertain this let alone actually agree to it?
I've been reading a lot of news today which is unusual, but other than that it's no difference from any other day.
Was deleted, maybe fake but even a fake like this is just... like... wtf?
There's so much crazy nonsense on Twitter right now it's insane.
I believe Lviv was an ethnically Polish city pre-WW2, and was part of Poland prior to the Allies just sort of scooting Poland westward on the map after the war, so maybe just projecting a love of revanchism onto other countries?
Also, the Poles are known for their love of partitioning countries. It's why they had it done to them so many times.
Not fake, just old, the poster realized. This is nothing new for Russian news media regarding Ukraine. They routinely make up stupid scenarios like this and/or lie and exaggerate.
Russian TV has always been crazy. I remember a few years ago some pundit suggested on tv to have berlin nuked because merkel called putin a dictator
＼（〇_ｏ）／ I just give up on humanity as a whole.
It's real and quite tame by Russian TV standards.
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Because Galicia was originally incorporated into Poland in 1350s, and loads of Poles think that "Lviv is a Polish city". I've encountered that sentiment, nevermind that after population transfers in late 1940s there's maybe a few thousand Poles left in all of Western Ukraine;
Basically, Russians are projecting their dream scenarios, so that 'the scary Banderites" will be busy leading an anti-Polish insurgency, instead of an anti-Russian one.
I'm surprised they haven't handed Transcarpathia to Russia's biggest cheerleader, Hungary, on this map.
Barring some stupid internal political shenanigans now, I'm seeing a lot of analysts saying things are starting to wind down. Remains to be seen, ofc, and I'm sure everyone will remain vigilant until the Central, Siberian, Far Eastern and Caucasus troops start clearing out from the borders.
Two decades of Surkovite-style propaganda have made them apathetic to the truth. Basically, when you have 20 different (sometimes opposing) lies, told in different ways, blasted at you daily, it makes it really difficult to search for that one truth. Which might not even be easily available, what with the censorship and journalist oppression. Plus many Russians don't know English, so it's difficult for them to read stuff not in Russian.
Thanks. Quite sad but I guess that Putin does have protests and such means not all people are apathetic or under a spell but he really doesn't like truth, see journalists ending up dead etc.
There isn't any independent TV news in Russia any more. The mainstream messaging is all government controlled. But they are not cut off from the outside world like North Korea or anything like that. For example, the poisoned/jailed Putin critic Alexei Navalny made an anti-corruption video about an alleged palace that Putin owns. That video has over 120 million views now.
You've got stuff like TV Rain, and the Gazprom-owned "Echo Moscow" that are allowed to criticise the government--within limits. Some of the newspapers do actual journalism-like "Novaya Gazeta", which keeps running afoul of Ramzan Kadyrov, the appointed President of Chechnya.
The issue is, these are well-known, "labelled liberal" outlets. And for most Russians, "liberals" are still associated with the economic disaster of post-Collapse 90s, so they aren't willing to listen to these sources.
Most don't really trust the state-run media either, preferring to be "apolitical". But even so, the propaganda thesises that "make sense" (such as "the West hates us" ) still resonate, even if their exposure to official news in most situations is brief.
Speaking of Surkov, has he written any new short stories lol
Did you read the blog on Echo Moscow today?
Basically, "we need to use peaceful "contact geopolitics" to reverse the losses from the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk"
These people, I swear to fucking God...
From 1918? That was invalidated by Versalies a year later? Where the Soviet Union then took that all that land back by the end of the Second World War? That Treaty of Brest-Litovsk?
Russia doesn't control most of that land now, it's all the independent nations of Eastern Europe.
So it comes down to Minsk 2. The west would
Be knee capping Ukraine's sovereignty to prevent war now.
It would take something outstanding to convince the Ukrainian public to accept those concessions. And they are the ones the government would have to worry about the most.
Ah well, it is what it is.
Correct. Basically, according to Surkov, the borders of the post-treaty Russia are largely where their current borders lie, and they are equally "unnatural" Thus, this "injustice" must be corrected.
Is it just me or can anyone else see the location of the bridge? I have no idea where I am supposed to be looking.
In the bottom images the land has been cleared and flatted where the ends would be and in the top left there's a line across the river.Is it just me or can anyone else see the location of the bridge? I have no idea where I am supposed to be looking.
I assume the line across the water in the 1st pic.. the prep work is the sandy areas either side.Is it just me or can anyone else see the location of the bridge? I have no idea where I am supposed to be looking.
One of the reasons the Russian state should be considered dangerous, and concerns about them not dismissed, is that they openly fetishise the concept of nuclear war; and consistently have done for years. Within the last few months, since the start of the latest build up along Ukraine's borders, TV figures in Russia have called for the nuking of Washington, London and plotted how to best invade the Baltics.
Merely saber rattling or not, the phrase goes speak softly and carry a big stick. Not rave like a lunatic and threaten to end the world when called out on your crimes. It's a behaviour that lends to miscalculation and potentially lowers the nuclear threshold.
I truly suspect that the intelligence for an invasion starting today was either true, and the Kremlin changed its mind, or was misinformation planted to undermine western intelligence services and weed out spies and leaks within their ranks, which would go hand in hand with Putin's open and muli-year long campaign of eliminating anyone he sees as a liability.
I'am not getting my hopes up on the situation getting better.
Piden threw Putin a cookie in hopes that it would satisfy Putin/make Putin save his face:
Piden: "Russian invasion will most likely take place on 15.2".
Putin: "Look, there was no invasion on 15.2. Warmongering West was all wrong. Peaceful Russia is the target of western propaganda campaign."
Russia withdraws small part of its troops from Ukraine's border. "Look, we don't wan't war."
Soon after: A phony (Russian staged) Ukrainian attack against eastern Ukrainian Republics/Belarus/Russia happens and Russia is "forced" to intervene.
Putin: "When the war that the West was trying to ignite didn't start, all thanks to Russia, they had to start it themselves. Now Russia has the right to attack and conquer more parts of Ukraine."
Hopefully this cookie, and the recent Ukrainian officials announcement of Ukraine not seeking to join NATO, is enough for Putin, but "locigally" thinking I 'am not very convinced that Putin has achieved his "goals" if that happens...
.... because this whole "Russian situation" development since the Soviet Union's dissolution has gone in the wrong direction, to put it lightly, at least since the end of 90's. 90's was not "pretty" for russians, and my whole condolences for Russian citizens adversities during that time, and centuries before that (this current situation is partly the result of the miserable times of the 90's).
Dictators (Putin and Xi Jinping at the forefront) are doing everything they can (besides full traditional war, at least so far) to maintain their dictatioral positions and to destroy democrazy/democratic countries. And sadly Russia is most likely going to be the lesser of the two evils. Things will likely get way worse in the future, but like in wast majority of fairy tales (lol, life could be a simulation after all) the good prevails in the end.
(Pardon my French)
Piden threw Putin a cookie in hopes that it would satisfy Putin/make Putin save his face:
Piden: "Russian invasion will most likely take place on 15.2".
Putin: "Look, there was no invasion on 15.2. Warmongering West was all wrong. Peaceful Russia is the target of western propaganda campaign."
Russia withdraws small part of its troops from Ukraine's border. "Look, we don't wan't war."
Soon after: A phony (Russian staged) Ukrainian attack against eastern Ukrainian Republics/Belarus/Russia happens and Russia is "forced" to intervene.
Putin: "When the war that the West was trying to ignite didn't start, all thanks to Russia, they had to start it themselves. Now Russia has the right to attack and conquer more parts of Ukraine."
Hopefully this cookie, and the recent Ukrainian officials announcement of Ukraine not seeking to join NATO, is enough for Putin, but "locigally" thinking I 'am not very convinced that Putin has achieved his "goals" if that happens...
.... because this whole "Russian situation" development since the Soviet Union's dissolution has gone in the wrong direction, to put it lightly, at least since the end of 90's. 90's was not "pretty" for russians, and my whole condolences for Russian citizens adversities during that time, and centuries before that (this current situation is partly the result of the miserable times of the 90's).
Dictators (Putin and Xi Jinping at the forefront) are doing everything they can (besides full traditional war, at least so far) to maintain their dictatioral positions and to destroy democrazy/democratic countries. And sadly Russia is most likely going to be the lesser of the two evils. Things will likely get way worse in the future, but like in wast majority of fairy tales (lol, life could be a simulation after all) the good prevails in the end.
(Pardon my French)
I truly suspect that the intelligence for an invasion starting today was either true, and the Kremlin changed its mind, or was misinformation planted to undermine western intelligence services and weed out spies and leaks within their ranks, which would go hand in hand with Putin's open and muli-year long campaign of eliminating anyone he sees as a liability.
I hope it's the former and not the latter
Draw down of some troops?
I won't be certain of no attack unless most of those units are gone.
I won't be certain of no attack unless most of those units are gone.
All that stress and worry for Ukrainians just to play mind games. I think the response this got and what was on the table might have surprised putin and changed the calculation.
The Crimean forces aren't even close to what's the worrying deployment. They are a tiny fraction of the forces. Considering how heavily fortified Crimea is at all times. There is always enough forces there to push north. its the 170k troops everywhere else that pulling back will signal actual progress
Just to be clear, it's not over until Russians return from Belarus. Their proximity to Kyiv, and capacity to outmaneuver the Ukrainian military deployments, was the most frightening development this time.
That being said, this is starting to look more like 2015, when a full invasion was constantly feared. At the time, the Duma also voted to ask Putin to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk, and he rejected it in favour of the Minsk agreements. So if a full draw down does happen in the next couple weeks, I would say its a safe bet that Putin didn't expect a clear, unified rejection to his expansionism, and he's settling for Minsk 2.
Bigging themselves up, then.
Those in charge of actually pressing the nuclear button know that by doing it they guarantee the end of their country.
That said, having that statement does make it seem just a bit more likely an actual climbdown will happen.
At the very least, their credibility in the scenario is increasingly and explicitly tied to a lack of military action. Rejecting the move to recognise the separatists brings that into the domestic political sphere as well
At the very least, their credibility in the scenario is increasingly and explicitly tied to a lack of military action. Rejecting the move to recognise the separatists brings that into the domestic political sphere as well
Putin has no reason to recognize the occupied lands because that is what he is forcing France and Germany to try and do to Ukraine. Germany and France are pushing Ukraine to give those regions their Autonomous Status so they can ally with Russia and tell the rest of Ukraine to fuck off.
As usual Germany and France are ready to fuck Ukraine
As usual Germany and France are ready to fuck Ukraine
US official: Russia adds 7K more troops near Ukraine border
Russia has added as many as 7,000 troops near the Ukraine border in recent days, contrary to claims by President Vladimir Putin that troops would be pulled back from the region.
apnews.com
Much as before, much rests on willingness to talk.
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