Massive Russian military buildup near Ukraine

[sacrament]

Slow motion chaos.

Pretty evident this will happen, whether they actually invade or us this show of force to get capitulation from Ukraine for additional access to Crimea or whatever it seems Russia is going to adjust the status quo.

I've said it in the past, but with Ukraine in Russia's hands it basically affirms that the EU (Western Europe mostly) won't be able to operate freely any more without serious consideration of Russia. I think this goes beyond NATO, and is core to European independence. It would definitely spell a collapse or ineffectiveness of NATO as a deterent. In such a world, and Germany's continued passive handling of Russia, I'd see liberal democracy really on its heels against the rise of authoritarian forces (e.g. Russia, China, right wing forces).

Hope we find a peaceful option here, but I hope Europe doesn't just roll over here.

 

[BringBackSonics]

The Spokeswoman of the Russian Foreign Ministry was arguing on TV just last night that Ukraine and Georgia are illegitimate and not Sovereign Countries.

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laying the groundwork for the narrative that this is a internal matter of breakaway territories. Moldova also not sovereign I'm guessing

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Why does Putin want Ukrainian territory so badly?

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I think the below video does a better job explaining it than I ever could. Not just Ukraine, but Russia wanting to annex the Soviet states.

Why Russia wants to restore the Soviet borders

✔ The first 100 people to go to https://www.blinkist.com/CaspianReport are going to get unlimited access for 1 week to try it out. You'll also get 25% off if...

www.youtube.com

 

[BringBackSonics]

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war is always a bit different when you are fighting for your neighbors, families and your country. I can respect that

 

[BringBackSonics]

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appears the goal is to connect Russia to criteria and also reclaim Moldova

 

[Artdayne]

I'm going to be pretty skeptical of US intelligence if it concerns the matter of escalating military tension against an enemy of the state, they've proven themselves to be untrustworthy many times over.

 

[svacina]

I'm going to be pretty skeptical of US intelligence if it concerns the matter of escalating military tension against an enemy of the state, they've proven themselves to be untrustworthy many times over.

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Do you trust Ukraine's intelligence?

 

[TitlePending]

Depends on what kind of war. A hot skirmish over some small territory somewhere else in the world? Maybe not. A war where the invader has to take and hold the entire territory, perpetually, while being sanctioned to the middle ages by the rest of the world?
Very likely.

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I am curious how much the EU can sanction Russia when they are dependent on their oil right now.

 

[Lostconfused]

it would be absolutely disastrous for Russia to invade Ukraine for both countries. There would be massive casualties on both sides. Ukraine has a large and well equipped army that would be able to repel a force of 175,000, but at great cost. It's also quite possible, and even likely, that Ukraine would employ a scorched Earth strategy in the event (West Ukrainians HATE Russia with a passion), making an invasion utterly pointless

All of this is an attempt to make NATO look weak, it's theatre.

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This was interesting and I had to look it up. Western part of Ukraine was under Polish control for a large part of history, and then became part of Austrian empire? It only became part of Ukraine after Soviet invasion of Poland in WWII. I can see why they would hate Russia so much today.

 

[BringBackSonics]

I'm going to be pretty skeptical of US intelligence if it concerns the matter of escalating military tension against an enemy of the state, they've proven themselves to be untrustworthy many times over.

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How about other organizations and non administration sources saying the same things? I know some if you all think just America can be the only bad actor, but there are other bad actors in the world as well.

 

[svacina]

I am curious how much the EU can sanction Russia when they are dependent on their oil right now.

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Gas. It's gas. I guess I would have to buy an electric stove.

 

[darkwing]

Ukraine is fucked

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yup, lots of shouting but it's done

 

[poklane]

I am curious how much the EU can sanction Russia when they are dependent on their oil right now.

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*Gas
But the biggest obstacle might very well be that each EU member state has to approve sanctions. This means that any package of sanctions has to be carefully crafted to not hurt the economy of any of the member states too much because otherwise it might be vetoed.

 

[BringBackSonics]

*Gas
But the biggest obstacle might very well be that each EU member state has to approve sanctions. This means that any package of sanctions has to be carefully crafted to not hurt the economy of any of the member states too much because otherwise it might be vetoed.

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The sad thing is the people rose up because they wanted to join the EU and the west, we had Euro Maidan, then Russia invaded and now they are in this limbo. I feel horrible for all the people that have died or been abandoned by the West.

 

[Thordinson]

I really hope this is sabre rattling and doesn't lead to war. Fuck imperialism. Fuck war.

 

[Xando]

Why does Putin want Ukrainian territory so badly?

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He needs it as a buffer against NATO. Russian elites fear nothing more than the imaginary threat of NATO invasion and Ukraine within NATO completely fucks the russian western front

 

[EricTheGamerman]

He needs it as a buffer against NATO. Russian elites fear nothing more than the imaginary threat of NATO invasion and Ukraine within NATO completely fucks the russian western front

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The buffer is only part of it, Putin wants to claim Ukraine as his own for a number of additional reasons. Ukraine also sees some of the gas infrastructure from Russia to other parts of Europe travel through it and he wants to retain as tight a grip on those as possible. He's also wants greater and more unrestricted access to the Black Sea, of which Crimea only kind of works and he'd much rather have the whole coastline. Then finally, he's also trying to make a move before Ukraine itself becomes too strong for Russia as a whole because generally Ukraine has fared better in recent years than Russia has and that jeopardizes his position and may eventually put Ukraine in a place to join NATO and then NATO would be on his borders to the South as well as to the West as they are currently.


Also, friendly reminder for the thread, Kyiv not Kiev.

 

[poklane]

appears the goal is to connect Russia to criteria and also reclaim Moldova

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Yup, also a very important thing to point out. If they reach Transnistria they might very well take Moldova as a bonus.

 

[Hellwarden]

Really hope this is just some saber rattling.

 

[SolidSnakeBoy]

Yeah if Russia invaded I'm not sure how this plays out. I don't think the US or EU would intervene with troops on the ground, at most I could maybe see them enforce a no fly zone and let them figure it out on the ground, even then that feels far fetched.

 

[Azzanadra]

Personally don't think this will lead to anything. Not only because the cost would be catastrophic for Russia. but because Russia itself is a lot more delicate than is sometimes imagined in popular media, as in they're not nearly as united nor all-powerful as depicted. A war like this would devastate the Russian economy even a year or two into it. The oligarchs who control the Russian government have it good, they're not going to give that up for some "russia stronk" sentiments.

 

[Xando]

Yes - Is WW3 absolutely worth that? Are the lives of even more troops worth that? I think you would be hard pressed to find much willpower in the West to do so. Political leaders are going to get crucified either way.

As presently wargamed, NATO would lose the Baltics in an invasion, and then you have to deal with the costs of invading them back.

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Current NATO war game is the troops in the baltics hold the baltics for 2-3 days while NATO punches into kalinigrad, belarus and lithuania with 50000 QRF forces from poland and the baltic sea while using the superior tech to punch a whole into russian communication networks with their airforce.

NATO countries aren't going to sacrifice the tens of thousands of troops in the baltics and laugh it off.

If it ever were to happen there are so many automatisms kicking off you won't be able to stop it

 

[sacrament]

Current NATO war game is the troops in the baltics hold the baltics for 2-3 days while NATO punches into kalinigrad, belarus and lithuania with 50000 QRF forces from poland and the baltic sea while using the superior tech to punch a whole into russian communication networks with their airforce.

NATO countries aren't going to sacrifice the tens of thousands of troops in the baltics and laugh it off.

If it ever were to happen there are so many automatisms kicking off you won't be able to stop it

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Do you really think NATO has that kind of willpower nowadays? I keep seeking signal here - but I just don't see Germany and France deploying significant forces unless their own borders are attacked or compromised.

Unless we think the US would the NATO force, which maybe, but don't think that's popular in the US anymore (running a big armed offensive to fight in Europe's backyard).

 

[Mekanos]

Personally don't think this will lead to anything. Not only because the cost would be catastrophic for Russia. but because Russia itself is a lot more delicate than is sometimes imagined in popular media, as in they're not nearly as united nor all-powerful as depicted. A war like this would devastate the Russian economy even a year or two into it. The oligarchs who control the Russian government have it good, they're not going to give that up for some "russia stronk" sentiments.

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Pretty much where I stand. Even if Russia were to "win" a full on invasion and conflict with Ukraine, what do they really get out of this longterm after their own country gets crippled by the cost of it? It's posturing.

 

[BringBackSonics]

I expect to see a shift in German-Russian relationship now that Baerbock is FM

 

[Xando]

Do you really think NATO has that kind of willpower nowadays? I keep seeking signal here - but I just don't see Germany and France deploying significant forces unless their own borders are attacked or compromised.

Unless we think the US would the NATO force, which maybe, but don't think that's popular in the US anymore (running a big armed offensive to fight in Europe's backyard).

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Again. If the situation ever arose NATO battleplans would kick in within hours. There is no time to change your mind or debate for 3 weeks. NATO forces in germany, poland etc. would be mobilizing and in active operations within half a day.

While Ukraine certainly isn't going to trigger a active response (though i expect there would be quite a lot stuff like intel sharing, AWACS support etc. going on in the background) any action in the baltics would trigger a existential crisis for NATO and the EU which certainly would trigger a harsh response.

 

[JohnsonUT]

Frankly, I've never not seen Chikor not espouse the Russian/Chinese argument or be critical of those regimes.

He comes into these threads to shit on America and play interference. Divide & Conquer.

His effectiveness at it is a reason why I'm pessimistic.

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This is fucking disgusting. One of the main topics in this thread is about what role the US military and foreign policy should have in this region. A poster who consistently and correctly points out that the US military and diplomats usually makes the wrong moves is being accused of intentionally trying to destroy the US from within. Bullshit.

 

[sacrament]

Again. If the situation ever arose NATO battleplans would kick in within hours. There is no time to change your mind or debate for 3 weeks. NATO forces in germany, poland etc. would be mobilizing and in active operations within half a day.

While Ukraine certainly isn't going to trigger a active response (though i expect there would be quite a lot stuff like intel sharing, AWACS support etc. going on in the background) any action in the baltics would trigger a existential crisis for NATO and the EU which certainly would trigger a harsh response.

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I hope it would, but I just don't know. Pretty skeptical with how some of this has all gone down over the past decade, and it really makes me wonder if NATO alliance is still as capable or reliable as it's been advertised. Everything you say is true, but so much ground has already been given up in other enforcement areas I've become a unconvinced.

 

[B-Dubs]

Pretty much where I stand. Even if Russia were to "win" a full on invasion and conflict with Ukraine, what do they really get out of this longterm after their own country gets crippled by the cost of it? It's posturing.

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Because they haven't invaded before

 

[Sirpopopop]

This is fucking disgusting. One of the main topics in this thread is about what role the US military and foreign policy should have in this region. A poster who consistently and correctly points out that the US military and diplomats usually makes the wrong moves is being accused of intentionally trying to destroy the US from within. Bullshit.

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I've already answered this argument earlier in this thread. If your plan is to keep on repeating this argument until I get banned, have at it.

 

[GameAddict411]

This could absolutely be true. It would be in keeping with Russia's previous actions toward Ukraine. But it's important to keep several things in mind:

1. This is an intentional "leak" directed by US intelligence agencies and the administration, to make sure that this is the exact narrative that the US public believes.

2. Stories like this have been used in the past to spread information that was not at all reliable but fit the narrative prior administrations wanted spread.

3. WaPo, the Times, and others have repeatedly published stories based on intelligence and administration sources that are disturbingly unquestioning.

So, as always, take these reports with a huge grain of salt. And be real careful about war mongering based on the message US intelligence is spreading.

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War mongering? This isn't a developing country we are talking about. War with Russia will insure a mutual destruction.

 

[Deleted member 48201]

If Russia invades and NATO doesn't respond militarily then Europe can cut off Russia's access to SWIFT. The European Parliament already approved a nonbinding resolution calling for that step if Russia does invade Ukraine. It would destroy the Russian economy.

 

[Culex]

Wtf are you on about? It has never been part of the balkans.

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Sorry, I get those pre/post USSR territories mixed up, so fuck off!

 

[TorianElecdra]

Will the Washington Post issue a retraction when nothing happens? I feel like we get stuff like this from them on a weekly basis and then nothing happens.

 

[Earthboundstarman]

The Ukrainian President was saying an invasion was imminent recently and now the US intelligence is saying the same thing 🤔

 

[Addie]

The Ukrainian President was saying an invasion was imminent recently and now the US intelligence is saying the same thing 🤔

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And, you know, the massing of over a hundred thousand Russian troops on the border that Zelenskyy can literally see, combined with the fact that conflict in Crimea is still persisting.

Will Russia invade (more)? I don't know. But to pitch this as Putin doing something for funsies doesn't make sense. And furthermore, let's be clear, Moscow is the aggressor here. Period.

 

[Ramsay]

I've said this before, but I think this is Putin posturing for concessions from the West.

Think about it. What does Russia have to gain from a war with Ukraine? At best, some prestige that Russia lost with the breakup with the Soviet Union.

Conversely, Russia has far, far too much to lose from such a war. Russia's economy is fragile, and its aging population isn't reliving these pressures. Any war with Ukraine would have to be concluded within a year or two simply because Russia's economy cannot sustain a war for any longer. Similarly, even if Russia wins a quick, decisive war, they gain control of a country whose population would be virulently hostile towards them by virtue of the Soviet Union (i.e. Russia) flat out conducting a genocide against them. It would be akin to the US invading Iraq or Afghanistan.

That being said, given the nature of the threat at hand, Ukraine and the West absolutely needs to be ready for such an invasion, even if it is unlikely.

 

[Deleted member 46948]

*Gas
But the biggest obstacle might very well be that each EU member state has to approve sanctions. This means that any package of sanctions has to be carefully crafted to not hurt the economy of any of the member states too much because otherwise it might be vetoed.

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Substantial economic sanctions are continually in place since 2014. Barely anyone in the EU does any significant business with Russia anymore. I don't think this part would be an issue.

 

[KastuśKalinoŭski]

Substantial economic sanctions are continually in place since 2014. Barely anyone in the EU does any significant business with Russia anymore. I don't think this part would be an issue.

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EU is still their largest trade partner.

EU trade relations with Russia

Facts, figures and latest developments.

ec.europa.eu

The EU is Russia's biggest trade partner, accounting for 37.3% of the country's total trade in goods with the world in 2020. 36.5% of Russia's imports came from the EU and 37.9% of its exports went to the EU.

Total trade in goods between the EU and Russia in 2020 amounted to €174.3 billion. The EU's imports were worth €95.3 billion and were dominated by fuel and mining products – especially petroleum (€67.3 billion, 70.6%), agriculture and raw materials (€4.3 billion, 4.5%), chemicals (€4.1 billion, 4.3%) and iron and steel (€4.0 billion, 4.1%). The EU's exports totalled €79.0 billion. They were led by machinery and transport equipment (€35.0 billion, 44.1%), chemicals (€16.7 billion, 21.1%), and manufactured goods (€7.6 billion, 9.6%) as well as agriculture and raw materials (€6.9 billion, 8.7%).

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And more important:

The EU is the largest investor in Russia. In 2019, the EU's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in Russia amounted to €311.4 billion, Russia's FDI stock in the EU was estimated at €136 billion.

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[Psittacus]

That being said, given the nature of the threat at hand, Ukraine and the West absolutely needs to be ready for such an invasion, even if it is unlikely.

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That's the game at the heart of intelligence. Putin is trying to convince NATO that he will/won't pull the trigger and NATO has to convince Putin that it will retaliate if he does, regardless of its actual intent.

 

[JimD]

War mongering? This isn't a developing country we are talking about. War with Russia will insure a mutual destruction.

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Yes? That's my point. US Intelligence elevating "troop buildup" to "Putin is definitely going to invade" has several people in this thread arguing for a US military response, which is dangerous as hell.

 

[myth]

This is fucking disgusting. One of the main topics in this thread is about what role the US military and foreign policy should have in this region. A poster who consistently and correctly points out that the US military and diplomats usually makes the wrong moves is being accused of intentionally trying to destroy the US from within. Bullshit.

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That Chikor person has blatantly defended dictators, so yeah, their opinions are dogshit and mean nothing

 

[KastuśKalinoŭski]

No shortage of sanction options if Russia invades Ukraine

The Biden administration has plenty of options to make good on its pledge to hit Russia financially if President Vladimir Putin sends troops into Ukraine.

apnews.com

When the U.S. successfully pressured SWIFT to disconnect Iranian banks over Iran's nuclear program, the country lost almost half of its oil export revenue and a third of its foreign trade, said Maria Shagina, an expert on sanctions and energy politics affiliated with the Carnegie Moscow Center think tank.

The impact on Russia's economy would be "equally devastating," Shagina writes. Russia depends on its oil and natural gas exports for more than one-third of its federal revenues, and depends on SWIFT to make the petrodollars flow.

Russia has worked since 2014 to insulate its domestic financial systems from such a cutoff. A SWIFT cutoff would cause indirect pain for Western economies as well.

John Herbst, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and career diplomat, said Friday he believed that while "SWIFT is not off the table, it would be a last resort."

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[Rosenkrantz]

Ok. This is some doomsday shit. It's one thing to annex Crimea there a lot of populace was pro-Russian to begin with and support the secession movement in the Eastern Ukraine (again, with a lot of populace being pro-Russian). But going into all out war with up to 200k troops involved right from the start is something Russia can't afford. Neither economically nor politically. Putin knows that. It's not going to achieve anything except prolonged war, whatever populist gain there's to make is inevitably going to disappear the moment caskets will start to return home and economic sanctions just gonna make an average person's life even more miserable. Putin is not an idiot, he understands that, unless he's completely delusional and intoxicated by the amount of power he has.

 

[myth]

Ok. This is some doomsday shit. It's one thing to annex Crimea there a lot of populace was pro-Russian to begin with and support the secession movement in the Eastern Ukraine (again, with a lot of populace being pro-Russian). But going into all out war with up to 200k troops involved right from the start is something Russia can't afford. Neither economically nor politically. Putin knows that. It's not going to achieve anything except prolonged war, whatever populist gain there's to make is inevitably going to disappear the moment caskets will start to return home and economic sanctions just gonna make an average person's life even more miserable. Putin is not an idiot, he understands that, unless he's completely delusional and intoxicated by the amount of power he has.

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100% agree. I seriously doubt this isnt just some posturing thing. Russians arent doing so well economically and Putin has to cater to that, attacking Ukraine wouldnt help him in any way.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Substantial economic sanctions are continually in place since 2014. Barely anyone in the EU does any significant business with Russia anymore. I don't think this part would be an issue.

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I don't think this is accurate. I think a lot of the EU countries get a good portion of their oil from Russia.

 

[Kodama4]

Watch China attack Taiwan at the exact same time Russia attacks Ukraine

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Watch China attack Taiwan at the exact same time Russia attacks Ukraine

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Would it surprise anyone if this happened?

 

[Deleted member 46948]

EU is still their largest trade partner.

EU trade relations with Russia

Facts, figures and latest developments.

ec.europa.eu

And more important:

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Oh EU is definitely Russia's biggest business partner, but Russia is a fairly minor partner for most EU countries. For example in my country the business with Russia accounted for like 2% (I'm guessing of all business done or something, I remember the number but not exactly what it meant), and that was in 2014 when the sanctions were first discussed.
A lot of businesses reoriented to other markets in the past 7 years.

 

[Rosenkrantz]

100% agree. I seriously doubt this isnt just some posturing thing. Russians arent doing so well economically and Putin has to cater to that, attacking Ukraine wouldnt help him in any way.

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Putin's popularity is already at the lowest point of his entire rule. Starting a war would be a nail in the coffin in the long term, people already fed up with his "nullification" and 6-year long presidential terms, but as long as paycheck is enough to pay the bills it's not achieving a boiling point, and even that is not a guarantee anymore because average salaries keep shrinking for years now.