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Oct 25, 2017
15,174
Okay. But we still have Q2 releasing on 3DS. And we only know about SMT V. Where will the next Etrian Odyssey game be? Or any of the S/MT spinoffs? And why wasn't Strange Journey released on the Switch? It just released in Japan and they could have probably ported it to the Switch with not much more effort. Same with Radiant Historia
They're getting in those last quick 3DS sales with those franchises that grew on traditional handheld (two of them being DS remasters to begin with).

That said, if they want to keep the Etrian train going, mobile is the way to go for that format, if possible a Switch version handheld only mode.
 

Echizen

Member
Oct 27, 2017
597
I do wonder what could make Xenoblade games sell better. The quality is extremely high. Content is there. Reviews favorable.

IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?

It's just not good marketing (I don't mean advertising).

It's a series with no clear through line.

Three releases in, this is what we can currently expect from Xenoblade games: a main story that will take most people at least 70-80 hours to complete, a complex battle system that will keep layering on mechanics throughout the game, and many other systems with varying degrees of complexity which will be necessary for most players to learn in some capacity.

As it stands, Xenoblade is a daunting experience for multiple reasons and therefore has an inherently limited audience. Cool mechanics like mechs, crossovers, and different art styles can help the series to some degree, but I don't think any of these things are going to take sales to the next level. There would need to be a fundamental shift for the series to hit another gear, and yeah, the battle system seems like the most obvious thing Monolith Soft could drastically change to make the games more "appealing." I selfishly hope they don't because I love the series the way it is, and the combat is a big part of that.

It will definitely be interesting to see what direction their next game goes in after Xenoblade Chronicles 2.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
Their medieval project was supposed to be more straight action iirc. I think that could be a good fit.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,191
Okay. But we still have Q2 releasing on 3DS. And we only know about SMT V. Where will the next Etrian Odyssey game be? Or any of the S/MT spinoffs? And why wasn't Strange Journey released on the Switch? It just released in Japan and they could have probably ported it to the Switch with not much more effort. Same with Radiant Historia
What part of Atlus decisions make you question any of this. They may not make platform decisions based on largest reach but they are damn consistent. Much like Persona 5 and SMTV sequels to any games that released on a playstation ecosystem will come to ps4 minium and any that released on the 3DS will come to the switch. Cheap and easy ports will continue to release on the 3DS.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
I want to see what they do/don't do with EO and/or spiritual successor to EO on Switch, but I think we're all curious about that at this point.
 

funtastrophe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
255
[million sellers over time chart cut for aesthetics]

I am guessing that your claim isn't based on data but on some kind of divination at this point.

PM's point is valid. Switch will be lacking a number of the games, especially early on, that 3DS (eventually) took for granted. It compensates somewhat by having both the potential million sellers from Nintendo's home console and portable sides, but it still would need additional huge third party sellers to match the 3DS.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,751
Italy
PM's point is valid. Switch will be lacking a number of the games, especially early on, that 3DS (eventually) took for granted. It compensates somewhat by having both the potential million sellers from Nintendo's home console and portable sides, but it still would need additional huge third party sellers to match the 3DS.

It's just really naif to think that a potentially 20m+ seller hardware will not host many million sellers. If MH or YW won't come/won't reach this height, some other IP will. Last year showed a concentration around million sellers and a smaller tail. Switch has already 3m sellers in its first 9 months.
 

Braaier

Banned
Oct 29, 2017
13,237
What part of Atlus decisions make you question any of this. They may make platform decisions based on largest reach but they are damn consistent. Much like Persona 5 and SMTV sequels to any games that released on a playstation ecosystem will come to ps4 minium and any that released on the 3DS will come to the switch.
Well I hope so! I think Etrian Odyssey may be a dead series since you really need two screens for that, but hopefully the other 3DS series will live on through the Switch.

It seems like Atlus is keen to remaster their games, so hopefully we will see some of these 3DS games re-released for the Switch. I would love to move on from my 3DS, but I'm currently working my way through SMTIV Apocalypse and after that I have Etrian Odyssey 5, followed by Radiant Historia and Strange Journey. Atlus is single-handedly keeping my 3DS relevant.
 

Deleted member 11008

User requested account closure
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
6,627
They're getting in those last quick 3DS sales with those franchises that grew on traditional handheld (two of them being DS remasters to begin with).

That said, if they want to keep the Etrian train going, mobile is the way to go for that format, if possible a Switch version handheld only mode.

It would be weird, but just with being able to draw maps/put icons in handheld mode is enough for me. I can live with a mini-map in a corner and/or a hide map. Of course, the best would be Atlus wish to implement some gyro controllers in TV mode to do this... and maybe they would remember they did Trauma Center before?

Agh.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,191
PM's point is valid. Switch will be lacking a number of the games, especially early on, that 3DS (eventually) took for granted. It compensates somewhat by having both the potential million sellers from Nintendo's home console and portable sides, but it still would need additional huge third party sellers to match the 3DS.
There are very few third party million sellers in Japan and as we can see with the PS4 sales being marginally better than the PS3s alligned their impact is not what they once were.
 

Horror

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
1,997
Holy switch

If japan doesnt put everything on switch ASAP they dumb

I'm in the sit-and-wait camp.

Checked out the DS release schedule. Another system that caught some by surprise after its lukewarm unveiling. Japan third party support really didn't "arrive" on the system en masse until much later.
 

Echizen

Member
Oct 27, 2017
597
Their medieval project was supposed to be more straight action iirc. I think that could be a good fit.

Yeah, that's how a lot of people are reading into the art and information we've gotten over the past few months. For me, the ideal scenario would be that they make something more approachable for people who want to experience the kinds of stories and worlds they create, while also continuing the Xenoblade series at the same time and keeping its spirit fully intact. I just hope it's not one or the other.
 

Deleted member 2791

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
19,054
Going by how they're communicating about it, I don't think they want to put the production values needed for a Switch game for Etrian Odyssey. Whatever the next EO is, it will probably be the last one.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
Has MonolithSoft been expanding at all, i.e. does it seem it could take on both medieval and a Xeno project? Or is it still the team in Tokyo (?) and a Kyoto support studio?

Going by how they're communicating about it, I don't think they want to put the production values needed for a Switch game for Etrian Odyssey. Whatever the next EO is, it will probably be the last one.

That'd be incredibly sad. The main thing for me is I hope the combat and class design continues in some form into a new series. I think the mapping stuff is going to be dead without two screens.
 

funtastrophe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
255
It's just really naif to think that a potentially 20m+ seller hardware will not host many million sellers. If MH or YW won't come/won't reach this height, some other IP will. Last year showed a concentration around million sellers and a smaller tail. Switch has already 3m sellers in its first 9 months.

That's based on assumptions we're not quite sure about. Maybe mobile really did eat up enough of the markets to make... what was it somebody said earlier today? ... "500K the new 1 million". Maybe new IPs will have to work harder to reach lower baselines than prior generations. Maybe Switch will be exciting for a few years then start to tail off early like the Wii did. There are plenty of potential factors that could lead to Switch underperforming in this metric compared to 3DS.

I believe that Switch will have an embarrassment of million sellers, but I know that it will have at least two, almost certainly three. ;)

(edit: just to clarify, I interpreted PM's comment as "Switch may only get 15 million-selling games". That's still a lot, but it's far short of the 3DS)

There are very few third party million sellers in Japan and as we can see with the PS4 sales being marginally better than the PS3s alligned their impact is not what they once were.

Hmm, I should get around to adding PS3 to the chart at some point. I actually have no idea off the cuff (Without cheating and loading up https://sites.google.com/site/gamedatalibrary/ first) how the two compare in even current total million sellers.
 

Deku

Member
Oct 25, 2017
242
OmfgdKN.png


kFiPLHR.png


  • Mario Odyssey will pass Splatoon 2 launch aligned next week (but I doubt it will LTD when all is said and done)
  • The upward curve gang: Splatoon 2, Mario (Kart and Odyssey), Zelda, Pokken, and even ARMS (first time in top 20 since coming to ERA)
  • Xenoblade 2 still above MHXX, but we'll see how well the legs hold up
  • ARMS is above 1 2 Switch launch aligned, but behind in LTD (272,206 vs 295,467)
 

tuffy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,530
That'd be incredibly sad. The main thing for me is I hope the combat and class design continues in some form into a new series. I think the mapping stuff is going to be dead without two screens.
More specifically, the developers have described the final, un-numbered 3DS Etrian Odyssey title as a "festival-like project" that will be a "true culmination" of the series.

If the series is going to continue afterward on another system, it's not obvious what it would look like. But even if it will continue, it's only natural that Atlus isn't going to undercut the final 3DS entry by leaking any details about where the series is going next.
 

Sanlei

Member
Oct 25, 2017
701
IMO the biggest issue is IP recognition with more mainstream audiences. Things like shulk in smash are good but then he doesn't appear in next two games. Two titans battling world? Gone. Awesome mechs? Gone. The series has no clear identity and the naming is confusing as hell. X? Is 2 a direct story sequel?
Still better than alot of others, like Pkmn Series or even easier: look at FF series, what do the numbers even mean? Is FF15 a direct story sequel to FF14?
It should be obvious why X isnt 2, and why 2 isnt X2. Just listen at the music or look at the direction of the games, the content doesnt even matter to look at.
Also @ your points: i am not sure if those existed at all, or if they are gone. Lets just phrase it that way.
 

CGiRanger

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,517
Good Xenoblade 2 numbers and nice to see confirmation that it's at least doing better than XBX did (though it'd have been terrible if that didn't happen given how XBX was handicapped by the Wii U's poor performance).

It's too bad there's no way to know what the digital numbers are. And I guess we'll have to wait a while before hearing how it fared overseas as well.

XB2 does still have good potential though, especially with the fact that the Switch is at the start of its lifetime and that their Expansion Pass is promising new content all the way until next year. So they can hopefully retain a modest amount of continuous sales moving forward as opposed to the previous game which just grinded to a complete stop.

That said, I'm perfectly fine if Xenoblade remains a "niche" series so long as Monolith and Takahashi retain the same production values on their future projects.
 

ILikeFeet

DF Deet Master
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
61,987
who cares if it does around 300k that would be a huge success and guarantee a sequel. if they manage something like 200k-250k that would be still auite good
it aint hitting 300K in japan, that's for sure. the biggest problem with 200K-250K is the question of continuing to move in this direction for the Xenoblade series. the growth is that much meaning that there's something about the series keeping it from breaking out. if their medieval game or their online game (they may or may not be the same thing) does much better, then I can see Xenoblade either dying or changing to meet the more successful game.
 

Anth0ny

Member
Oct 25, 2017
47,463
I think it's better to say Japanese publishers need to get more content out on Switch in general, you'll trigger people saying they need to put everything on Switch.

I'm really looking forward to Famitsu's end of year interview with devs though and how many will say how sick the Switch is then proceed to never make a game for it.

"I'm really interested in Nintendo's new hardware. It seems to be very successful, but we won't be bringing any games over to it until we find the right experience that brings forward all of the unique capabilities of the platform"

Sincerely,

Every Japanese third party
 

Hieroph

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,995
Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2017 (Dec 11 - Dec 17)

01./00. [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Hihou Legend Banbarayaa - Sword / Magnum <ACT> (Level 5) {2017.12.16} (¥4.800) - 208.540 / NEW
03./03. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥4.980) - 119.005 / 1.169.173 (+12%)
15./14. [3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon Veteran Trainer's Dual Pack {Pokemon Ultra Sun \ Pokemon Ultra Moon} <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2017.11.17} (¥9.960) - 12.117 / 302.266 (+8%)

Uh. Yo-kai Watch is also going to bust my prediction, isn't it?

Pokemon is completely killing it.
 

DecoReturns

Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,003
So can Pokémon hit 2 million?

I remember early predictions were that 2 million wasn't gonna be possible or very unlikely.

Seems like it has shot.
 

K Samedi

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,991
It's just really naif to think that a potentially 20m+ seller hardware will not host many million sellers. If MH or YW won't come/won't reach this height, some other IP will. Last year showed a concentration around million sellers and a smaller tail. Switch has already 3m sellers in its first 9 months.
Agreed. There will be loads of IP that will overperforn. People have come to terms with how low most third party software has been selling in Japan but it is a sign of a non healthy console market for years now. The Switch will most surely change that and we will see unexpected IP sell very well and also we will see huge gains for established IP.
 

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
PM's point is valid. Switch will be lacking a number of the games, especially early on, that 3DS (eventually) took for granted. It compensates somewhat by having both the potential million sellers from Nintendo's home console and portable sides, but it still would need additional huge third party sellers to match the 3DS.

That's what I call divination. Actually, the Switch has been faster than the 3DS in this "million-seller race" so saying that Switch will be, at the end, way behind the 3DS is making blind guesses. Before the 3DS, what was Yokai ? New IPs are created every gen and can explode on a successful console. We don't know the extent of Nintendo output too and the 2018 line-up yet.
 

Grads

Member
Oct 25, 2017
754
That's what I call divination. Actually, the Switch has been faster than the 3DS in this "million-seller race" so saying that Switch will be, at the end, way behind the 3DS is making blind guesses. Before the 3DS, what was Yokai ? New IPs are created every gen and can explode on a successful console. We don't know the extent of Nintendo output too and the 2018 line-up yet.
Minecraft will most likely make its way to 1 million soon enough, so don't forget about that.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Minecraft will most likely make its way to 1 million soon enough, so don't forget about that.
And Breath of the Wild. That would make 5 million sellers released in the first year. I think a prediction on whether Switch will have as many million sellers as 3DS is really hard to substantiate even a little bit, since so many factors like future third party support and the Nintendo first party future are completely unknown at this point. To me, there's little point in making a prediction on it right now.
 
OP
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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
It looks like Pokémon US/UM will hit 2 million copies which is a fantastic result considering how negative people have been pre-release.
The negativity for Pokemon comes mainly from west that raised S/M sales and there US/UM has collapsed at every country.
 

DarkDetective

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,906
The Netherlands
That's what I call divination. Actually, the Switch has been faster than the 3DS in this "million-seller race" so saying that Switch will be, at the end, way behind the 3DS is making blind guesses. Before the 3DS, what was Yokai ? New IPs are created every gen and can explode on a successful console. We don't know the extent of Nintendo output too and the 2018 line-up yet.
Yeah, it's too early to say Switch will disappoint in terms of million sellers. The competition of mobile has grown a lot tho, especially in the anime & kids department. Hopefully the Switch's success will convince publishers to make more kids-focused games for it. I'm afraid the Switch might need a pricedrop for that...
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
You have a platform selling 200k+ (and probably 350k+ next week) weekly in December and no third party games on it and not much relevant support in the foreseeable future. Ironic.

It's pretty amazing to see a system selling these numbers while being almost solely supported by the hardware manufacturer on the software side. There's no other company in the industry with this ability and it shows that while Nintendo is even stronger with third party support, they don't actually need them when they're firing on all cylinders.
 

Horror

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
1,997
And Breath of the Wild. That would make 5 million sellers released in the first year. I think a prediction on whether Switch will have as many million sellers as 3DS is really hard to substantiate even a little bit, since so many factors like future third party support and the Nintendo first party future are completely unknown at this point. To me, there's little point in making a prediction on it right now.

Doesn't the fact that the Switch won't receive partitioned support from Nintndo, whereas the 3DS did, favor the notion of greater opportunity for more million sellers on one platform (from Nintendo)?
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
Doesn't the fact that the Switch won't receive partitioned support from Nintndo, whereas the 3DS did, favor the notion of greater opportunity for more million sellers on one platform (from Nintendo)?
True, although the extent to which this is the case remains a question as of yet, of course: just how many IPs will Nintendo put on Switch, and will we see repeats of IPs that already released (e.g. Mario, Zelda, etc.)? It's a given imo that Nintendo will bring more million sellers to the Switch than any other hardware before it, but how many more is uncertain, and some more insight into this will be needed to balance this against third party offerings.
 
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OP
Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Nintendo has already 2 million sellers on Switch that were absent from 3DS.

This year with the zero third party support Switch will sell more software than 2011 3DS.
 

sfortunato

Member
Oct 25, 2017
6,751
Italy
That's based on assumptions we're not quite sure about. Maybe mobile really did eat up enough of the markets to make... what was it somebody said earlier today? ... "500K the new 1 million". Maybe new IPs will have to work harder to reach lower baselines than prior generations. Maybe Switch will be exciting for a few years then start to tail off early like the Wii did. There are plenty of potential factors that could lead to Switch underperforming in this metric compared to 3DS.

I believe that Switch will have an embarrassment of million sellers, but I know that it will have at least two, almost certainly three. ;)

(edit: just to clarify, I interpreted PM's comment as "Switch may only get 15 million-selling games". That's still a lot, but it's far short of the 3DS)

Well, mobile market is stabilizing, and 3DS has shown it could sustain 5 multi-million sellers in the span of six months not many years ago (2014 if I remember correctly). With less games, big franchises can flourish and take some air. That's why we have seen so many million sellers on 3DS despite lower games in the 100-500k range.

The negativity for Pokemon comes mainly from west that raised S/M sales and there US/UM has collapsed at every country.

True, but you were pretty skeptical USUM could have reached such numbers in Japan ;)
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
The odds Xenoblade 2 crosses 500k in the US is 0. Unless you have insider info there is no possible way this is happening. That puts it ahead of Persona 5's launch :/ 300k is about the max this game will launch at.
While 500K is indeed an high threshold for XB2 first month, Switch is poised to sell big in December in US and software sales (especially first-party games) are going to benefit greatly from it.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
It's a good thing that Nintendo needs Xenoblade as a portfolio filler, because three games in, the series shows no breakout hit potential at all.
I feel unit sales won't portray the whole picture.
The impression I have is that the Xenoblade series has a small but dedicated fanbase ready to buy high margin limited edition and DLCs.
 

Zedark

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,719
The Netherlands
I feel unit sales won't portray the whole picture.
The impression I have is that the Xenoblade series has a small but dedicated fanbase ready to buy high margin limited edition and DLCs.
Yeah, I think it's fair to assume that JRPG fans generally buy a lot of games, being quite an engaged audience and all. so pulling in a dedicated fanbase of such customers is quite valuable I'd think, even if their numbers are limited.

You are talking about the UK right?.

Mat from NPD implied on the NPD thread that it was selling really well in the U.S.
Yeah, forgot to add that. It's in there now.
 
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