Calling from the discussion of the previous thread where people were counting the number of million sellers. SW is looking to be down a big way from 3DS in said regard right now. Besides game output going down across the board due to higher specs, 10+ of 3DS's 20 or so million sellers were from YW and MH. YW has collapsed and MH is no longer on SW. DQ has also gone multi platform with the main one missing the SW on release.
I think you've been following Japanese sales for many years to not realize that
a successful platform attracts big sellers and create new ones. The discussion is of course really premature (is it, though? Switch has already 3 million sellers in its first 9 months, which is on par with 3DS in the same timeframe) but we can look at historical performance and recent sales data to make some educated guess.
Switch will host all Nintendo franchises. Of course, some will disappear; some will be merged into one series (e.g., Mario Kart). As a hybrid platform, though, it will have a full Nintendo first party line-up. Now, among Nintendo franchises
there are some safe million sellers, on top of Splatoon, 3D Mario and Mario Kart: Animal Crossing, Pokémon and Smash. The first one typically sees many entries on one console, such as remakes and enhanced versions. The second one typically one entry per console but 3DS got a spin-off as well---given how huge the franchise is, I'm totally expecting something similar on Switch. Then
there are franchises that performed well on 3DS and might do as well on Switch, such as Luigi's Mansion, Super Mario Maker, 2D Mario and Tomodachi Life.
Further, and this is something people do not realize,
Nintendo has showed to be able to create new million seller IPs, almost on a constant basis. Even on Wii U they were able to create a huge IP like Splatoon---why shouldn't be able to do something similar on Switch? Funny as that, 1, 2... Switch is selling around 300k and it might even reach 400k when it's all said and done. I'm pretty confident Splatoon success incentivized Nintendo to creare more new IPs (ARMS is an example) and the chance of them being successful are high.
Also,
a successful platform like Switch is also able to sustain new million seller IPs from third parties. Nintendo handheld had many: 3DS had Yo-kai Watch, DS had Inazuma and Layton. Why should Switch be able to sustain new million sellers? Especially when it is going to explode among younger gamers. Further, many conversions from arcade/mobile are possible, and possibly see huge numbers: DS had Love&Berry, 3DS had Puzzle&Dragons and Monster Strike.
Of course, Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest will come sooner or later and will sell millions.
That's incredibly premature and ignoring Nintendo now combining software output and a host of other factors. But..I mean if you really want to have a discussion on Nintendo software declining I guess we can?
Haha, this week Psycho couldn't find anything else to shade a negative light on... Well, now he found Xenoblade 2 ;)
